Coronavirus Hype

[Aseahawkfan]

Sorry I haven't logged on much lately. The main thing I'm coming to realize is that Italy is showing is that a lot of young people are struggling in the hospital, even if it's mostly older people dying. This article really brings it home for me, and the video link is sobering and terrifying to see. Every asymptomatic person walking around could be infecting 50 or more people every time they go out, so when you think about each gathering has the potential to overwhelm a healthcare facility in any given region, it's hard to imagine - but all we have to do it look at Italy, who is recognized as having one of the world's finest healthcare systems. How can anyone not take this seriously at this point is beyond me.

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavi ... r-11954229

One of the world's finest healthcare systems? Where are you getting that from? I have never heard of Italy referred to in that manner.

Germany? Sure. Italy? Nope. To me this is showing the stark difference between the quality of Northern Europe versus Southern Europe. I figured this would happen before it did. All the economic power lies in Northern Europe. They have far more organized and technologically advanced economies.

Southern European nations like Italy and Spain may have some nice cities, but have huge numbers of rustic areas and poorly developed areas. So not sure where you're getting this "one of the finest in the world" healthcare systems. They can't even afford one of the finest in the world heatlhcare systems.

America is going to be tested on this one for sure. We have the capacity for advanced care more than any nation on earth, but we will ramp it up fast enough. We shall see. We have a huge nation with a lot of people cramped into some small places in certain areas and they will get hit the worst like New York and California. We'll see if we can keep up. China seems to have locked it down within three months, we'll see if we can do the same.

[RiverDog]

Sorry I haven't logged on much lately. The main thing I'm coming to realize is that Italy is showing is that a lot of young people are struggling in the hospital, even if it's mostly older people dying. This article really brings it home for me, and the video link is sobering and terrifying to see. Every asymptomatic person walking around could be infecting 50 or more people every time they go out, so when you think about each gathering has the potential to overwhelm a healthcare facility in any given region, it's hard to imagine - but all we have to do it look at Italy, who is recognized as having one of the world's finest healthcare systems. How can anyone not take this seriously at this point is beyond me.

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavi ... r-11954229

It's good to see you posting again. I was getting a little bored with ASF.

I started out as being a somewhat doubter at least to the reactions, but I'm taking it dead seriously now.

I'm not sure that the quality of health care matters as much as the quantity. South Korea has 11 beds per thousand, Germany 8.3. Italy has just 3.3 beds, we have under 3. That doesn't necessarily mean that those with more hospital beds have a better quality system, just that their infrastructure is larger and better equipped to meet a crisis like this. Besides, there's no real treatment anyone can offer, so I don't see how quality of care can make that much of a difference. All they're essentially doing is getting patients on ventilators and treating them with standard antibiotics.

As I said earlier in the thread, we here in the US and other western nations have been pushing minor surgeries to same day surgery centers as was the case with my hernia and rotator cuff surgeries. Keeping people out of the hospital is a plus not only financially but is an indication of the better techniques and less invasive surgeries that are being performed by surgeons to where they don't need a hospital to recover in. They are also turning people over quicker with shorter hospital stays. My mom had open heart surgery and they had her walking on the following day and discharged her to a nursing home within a couple days. Those surgeries used to involve a week in the hospital.

IMO one of the lessons in the post mortem of this crisis will be our hospital infrastructure and maintaining inventories of things like ventilators and PPE's. It should be no different than the oil reserve we keep in the event of a war.

[RiverDog]

America is going to be tested on this one for sure. We have the capacity for advanced care more than any nation on earth, but we will ramp it up fast enough. We shall see. We have a huge nation with a lot of people cramped into some small places in certain areas and they will get hit the worst like New York and California. We'll see if we can keep up. China seems to have locked it down within three months, we'll see if we can do the same.

China may have been exaggerating their recovery:

China's claims of how it's handling coronavirus recovery should be taken with more than a few grains of salt.
Even before COVID-19 became a global crisis, Chinese leaders had been criticized for their handling of the situation and lack of transparency about the disease's progression. Things now look like they're on the upswing, and businesses even appear to be headed back to work — but whistleblowers and local officials tell Caixan that's just a carefully crafted ruse.

Beijing has spent much of the outbreak pushing districts to carry on business as usual, with some local governments subsidizing electricity costs and even installing mandatory productivity quotas. Zhejiang, a province east of the epicenter city of Wuhan, claimed as of Feb. 24 it had restored 98.6 percent of its pre-coronavirus work capacity.

But civil servants tell Caixan that businesses are actually faking these numbers. Beijing had started checking Zhejiang businesses' electricity consumption levels, so district officials ordered the companies to start leaving their lights and machinery on all day to drive the numbers up, one civil servant said. Businesses have reportedly falsified staff attendance logs as well — they "would rather waste a small amount of money on power than irritate local officials," Caixan writes.

In Wuhan, officials have tried to make it appear that recovery efforts are going smoothly. But when "central leaders" personally survey disinfecting regimens and food delivery, local officials "make a special effort" for them and them alone, one resident told Caixan. And in a video circulating on social media, residents can be seen shouting at visiting leaders from the apartments where they're being quarantined — "Fake, it's all fake."

https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-coronavir ... 00391.html

[Aseahawkfan]

Everyone is assuming China is exaggerating. It may be the case. It seems as much as they tried to hide it, the information got out. So not sure that with the information out, they would try to lie again. But we will see.

I still don't see why Italy is getting this hammered. They must have some susceptibility to this. They are getting slaughtered. Or they must have really waited too long to do a lock down or their population density is really high. I'm watching Italy and they are getting crushed by this. I really hope we don't end up like that.

[I-5]

One of the world's finest healthcare systems? Where are you getting that from? I have never heard of Italy referred to in that manner.

World Health Organization. Feel free to disagree with that body, but they rank France #1, followed by Italy #2. Germany is at #25, and US is at #37. Taiwan would no doubt be high on the list, but they aren't recognized by the WHO...ironically, they have been the most successful country against coronavirus.

https://www.internationalinsurance.com/health/systems/

[RiverDog]

Everyone is assuming China is exaggerating. It may be the case. It seems as much as they tried to hide it, the information got out. So not sure that with the information out, they would try to lie again. But we will see.

I still don't see why Italy is getting this hammered. They must have some susceptibility to this. They are getting slaughtered. Or they must have really waited too long to do a lock down or their population density is really high. I'm watching Italy and they are getting crushed by this. I really hope we don't end up like that.

There is a difference in Italy's demographics and infrastructure capacity plus they are tourist-heavy, but I agree with you, it's still a mystery why they're affected as badly as they are. Lombardy, the region that's the epicenter of the outbreak in Italy, has a population density of about 1100 per square mile. Wuhan's population density is 1200/square mile. In comparison, King County's population density is 839/square mile, so population density is undoubtedly one factor.

[Aseahawkfan]

World Health Organization. Feel free to disagree with that body, but they rank France #1, followed by Italy #2. Germany is at #25, and US is at #37. Taiwan would no doubt be high on the list, but they aren't recognized by the WHO...ironically, they have been the most successful country against coronavirus.

https://www.internationalinsurance.com/health/systems/

That explains it.

How can you take seriously an article that rates the healthcare on this "The biggest factors in driving their top rankings are affordability and access". That is not effectiveness, that is more socialist propaganda. Which falls hard on its face when reality like a corona virus hits and these so called "finest healthcare in the world" find out technology, skill, and effectiveness vastly outweigh "access and affordability."

I would much rather be in Germany, Japan, Canada, or America than any Southern European nation. The international organizations are negatively biased towards America, yet they can never explain why people come here for high quality healthcare from the most technologically advanced medical technology in the world.

At least I see where you got it. I've read these international articles for ages and their bias against capitalist America. They never seem to be able to explain why our standard of living is among the highest in the world as they compare us to so many tiny nations with near zero influence on the world.

[Aseahawkfan]

There is a difference in Italy's demographics and infrastructure capacity plus they are tourist-heavy, but I agree with you, it's still a mystery why they're affected as badly as they are. Lombardy, the region that's the epicenter of the outbreak in Italy, has a population density of about 1100 per square mile. Wuhan's population density is 1200/square mile. In comparison, King County's population density is 839/square mile, so population density is undoubtedly one factor.

I know that is part of it. I read that Italy has 5000 intensive care beds versus Germany's 25 thousand. Everything I've heard of Germans is they will follow government directives very strictly and hammer any Germans that don't. They are a very orderly society. Germany has advanced medicine like America and very well trained doctors and staff. They have a high standards for competence and efficiency.

All I know for sure is I would much prefer to be in a place like America, Canada, Germany, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, or the United Kingdom than Southern Europe or France. All I've read of Southern Europe is they are way behind in technology, skill, education, and other metrics of an advanced society. They're not third world nations by any means, but they are not up to the standards of the highly productive and reason-based societies I listed. They still have strange laws highly influenced by their Catholic religion and lots of rural and underdeveloped areas. Beautiful for tourism and seeing the ancient world, but not the greatest place to be in a pandemic.

[RiverDog]

One of the world's finest healthcare systems? Where are you getting that from? I have never heard of Italy referred to in that manner.

World Health Organization. Feel free to disagree with that body, but they rank France #1, followed by Italy #2. Germany is at #25, and US is at #37. Taiwan would no doubt be high on the list, but they aren't recognized by the WHO...ironically, they have been the most successful country against coronavirus.

https://www.internationalinsurance.com/health/systems/

I'm not so sure what's so ironic about Taiwan's ability to fight the coronavirus and it's health care system. There doesn't seem to be a relationship between the virus and western Europe's success, at least not according the standard you're using to measure the quality of health care. It seems likely to me that the major factor in a successful control of it is the physical response, not the health care system.

What I have yet to hear anyone comment about is why Iran is getting hit so hard while Iraq hardly has any cases. Does Iraq have that great of a health care system?

[I-5]

Riv, a good friend of mine who is Persian told me a few things about Iran recently. One of the main factors is religion, in that the head of the shrine in Qom (where it started) asked followers to congregate at their shrine, causing numbers to go up exponentially. The other factors are that the government tried to suppress news about the infection, and get people to participate in their independence day Feb 11, and their elections on Feb 21. As we know from the 1918 flu, the way each city dealt with public gatherings made a gigantic difference in the deaths in each city, comparing Philadelphia to St Louis, for example.

[Aseahawkfan]

I'm not so sure what's so ironic about Taiwan's ability to fight the coronavirus and it's health care system. There doesn't seem to be a relationship between the virus and western Europe's success, at least not according the standard you're using to measure the quality of health care. It seems likely to me that the major factor in a successful control of it is the physical response, not the health care system.

What I have yet to hear anyone comment about is why Iran is getting hit so hard while Iraq hardly has any cases. Does Iraq have that great of a health care system?

That is strange too. I know Iran is 4 times the population of Iraq, but that doesn't explain it all. Makes you wonder if certain people have a high susceptibility or maybe the wars in Iraq have lowered the age of Iraq's population. Or maybe it's just getting started in certain places.

It's so hard to read.

The healthcare system doesn't have much to do with the number of cases, but the death rate I would think is based on the ability of the healthcare system to provide effective care quickly.

Russia is also surprisingly low too. Some nations aren't getting hit yet.

[RiverDog]

I know that is part of it. I read that Italy has 5000 intensive care beds versus Germany's 25 thousand. Everything I've heard of Germans is they will follow government directives very strictly and hammer any Germans that don't. They are a very orderly society. Germany has advanced medicine like America and very well trained doctors and staff. They have a high standards for competence and efficiency.

All I know for sure is I would much prefer to be in a place like America, Canada, Germany, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, or the United Kingdom than Southern Europe or France. All I've read of Southern Europe is they are way behind in technology, skill, education, and other metrics of an advanced society. They're not third world nations by any means, but they are not up to the standards of the highly productive and reason-based societies I listed. They still have strange laws highly influenced by their Catholic religion and lots of rural and underdeveloped areas. Beautiful for tourism and seeing the ancient world, but not the greatest place to be in a pandemic.

I read a book a long time ago about the success of various businesses, and one of them was McDonald's back when Ray Kroc was the owner. Kroc was a stickler for cleanliness, once made a store quit putting sliced pickles on their hamburgers because customers were picking them off and throwing them in the parking lot, lots of stories of him going into a store and going directly to the restroom and if it wasn't clean, there'd be hell to pay. Anyhow, when McDonald's first began to expand into the European market, they had to close their stores in Italy because even though they were very successful, they didn't live up to McD's cleanliness and food safety standards.

What you're saying about the cultural differences fit with my impressions of that region, too. A friend of mine from Romania, perhaps the biggest perfectionist I've ever met, hates the Greeks, calls them a bunch of pigs.

[I-5]

Re: why Italy. It's pretty well-known Italy has the 2nd oldest population in the world after Japan, and we know coronavirus is hardest on the elderly, so it's not really surprising. What's tragic is that one infected person (the first one in Italy) infected so many before they figuered out that he was patient zero, including multiple hospital visits he made. Every event makes a huge difference. I just wonder what's going on inside the US right now in terms of infected people going about their business and not self isolating or quarantining.

[RiverDog]

Riv, a good friend of mine who is Persian told me a few things about Iran recently. One of the main factors is religion, in that the head of the shrine in Qom (where it started) asked followers to congregate at their shrine, causing numbers to go up exponentially. The other factors are that the government tried to suppress news about the infection, and get people to participate in their independence day Feb 11, and their elections on Feb 21. As we know from the 1918 flu, the way each city dealt with public gatherings made a gigantic difference in the deaths in each city, comparing Philadelphia to St Louis, for example.

That's good information, I-5. Thanks a bunch!

I have a good friend from Iraq, a person of whom I've referenced a time or two in this forum, that I was going to meet up with for a couple of beers before this thing got crazy. His wife just had a baby a couple months ago so we decided to delay our get together. I was planning on asking him what the difference was between Iraq and Iran's responses to COVID-19.

[Aseahawkfan]

I read a book a long time ago about the success of various businesses, and one of them was McDonald's back when Ray Kroc was the owner. Kroc was a stickler for cleanliness, once made a store quit putting sliced pickles on their hamburgers because customers were picking them off and throwing them in the parking lot, lots of stories of him going into a store and going directly to the restroom and if it wasn't clean, there'd be hell to pay. Anyhow, when McDonald's first began to expand into the European market, they had to close their stores in Italy because even though they were very successful, they didn't live up to McD's cleanliness and food safety standards.

What you're saying about the cultural differences fit with my impressions of that region, too. A friend of mine from Romania, perhaps the biggest perfectionist I've ever met, hates the Greeks, calls them a bunch of pigs.

My English friend along with reading and talking about Europe with folks from there has colored my impression as well. My English friend always said the French were dirty and didn't bathe. I looked it up and sure enough, the French don't have the same taboos on body order and bathing. He said Southern Europe were a bunch of behind the times overly religious Catholics in less kind words. The Catholic nations were stupid in his view. Often the English make fun of the Catholics such as in Monty Python's "The Meaning of Life." He sometimes refers to them as "dirty Catholics", sometimes adding in Irish. Some of it is humor on his part, but you can tell a little of it is his real view.

Sure enough I read up on the Catholic nations like Spain and Italy, they have some really weird laws and cultural norms influenced by the Catholic Church like laws against abortion, divorce, and treatment of women. They still have fishing villages and lots of little backwoods areas, some run by the Cosa Nostra. Spain is similar.

Southern and Northern Europe are more different than Canada and America. It's almost like the difference between North America and Latin America.

[Aseahawkfan]

That's good information, I-5. Thanks a bunch!

I have a good friend from Iraq, a person of whom I've referenced a time or two in this forum, that I was going to meet up with for a couple of beers before this thing got crazy. His wife just had a baby a couple months ago so we decided to delay our get together. I was planning on asking him what the difference was between Iraq and Iran's responses to COVID-19.

One of my Iraqi co-workers said there are some Shia holidays that occurred recently causing them to gather against the recommendations. He said the Shia don't care, they just get together and now they have trouble. They are not doing that in Iraq according to him. It could be the case.

I do really consider social distancing is important. When I first read on this, I thought it would blow over quickly. As I kept watching the John Hopkin's map, I realized we're in a terrible situation. Not so much because many of us on a percentage basis will die, but because so many of us that are healthy or have minor symptoms are like Typhoid Mary's carrying this around where ever we go. Social distancing and isolation like we are doing if we follow it can really work because the carriers or mild symptoms can get over their infectious period lessening the overall impact while they develop true immunity.

Basically, we can socially isolate or distance for a few months building immunity since the number of infected people is probably five to ten times higher than tested cases. This isolation gives time for these untested cases to overcome the infectious period and get that herd immunity built.

[RiverDog]

Re: why Italy. It's pretty well-known Italy has the 2nd oldest population in the world after Japan, and we know coronavirus is hardest on the elderly, so it's not really surprising. What's tragic is that one infected person (the first one in Italy) infected so many before they figuered out that he was patient zero, including multiple hospital visits he made. Every event makes a huge difference. I just wonder what's going on inside the US right now in terms of infected people going about their business and not self isolating or quarantining.

Italy's demographics is obviously part of their problem, but it's not the only factor. As you mentioned, Japan has an even older population and they are in the same region as China but they haven't been hit as hard. Perhaps being an island nation like Taiwan makes a difference, too. IMO your second sentence seems more likely to be a larger factor than demographics and sounds a lot like the nursing home in Kirkland where the outbreak here started.

[RiverDog]

My English friend along with reading and talking about Europe with folks from there has colored my impression as well. My English friend always said the French were dirty and didn't bathe. I looked it up and sure enough, the French don't have the same taboos on body order and bathing. He said Southern Europe were a bunch of behind the times overly religious Catholics in less kind words. The Catholic nations were stupid in his view. Often the English make fun of the Catholics such as in Monty Python's "The Meaning of Life." He sometimes refers to them as "dirty Catholics", sometimes adding in Irish. Some of it is humor on his part, but you can tell a little of it is his real view.

Sure enough I read up on the Catholic nations like Spain and Italy, they have some really weird laws and cultural norms influenced by the Catholic Church like laws against abortion, divorce, and treatment of women. They still have fishing villages and lots of little backwoods areas, some run by the Cosa Nostra. Spain is similar.

Southern and Northern Europe are more different than Canada and America. It's almost like the difference between North America and Latin America.

Boy, now you're really dusting off some cob webs in my memory. I once worked with a German lady, she was an 11 year old in Hitler's youth corps, and she used to complain about the French being dirty, too. I always wrote it off to a bias due to a regional rivalry between the two nations being the centerpiece of two world wars, but your English friend's comments about the French rang a bell with me.

[Aseahawkfan]

Boy, now you're really dusting off some cob webs in my memory. I once worked with a German lady, she was an 11 year old in Hitler's youth corps, and she used to complain about the French being dirty, too. I always wrote it off to a bias due to a regional rivalry between the two nations being the centerpiece of two world wars, but your English friend's comments about the French rang a bell with me.

I though the same thing. I guess there is some French cultural norm not to shower as often among a certain group. I guess the smell of a strong body odor is considered attractive.

I figured his Catholic comments were a dig on me a little bit because I was raised Catholic. I'm glad I was raised in America because some of the Catholic nations have laws that are crazy. Make conservatives here look like liberals.

America is always going to be more to my tastes. Only other nations I've seen with cultures I could probably tolerate are Canada who I look at as America's little brother and Switzerland, where they have a strong sense of freedom and independence as well as a strong appreciation for science.

[RiverDog]

That's good information, I-5. Thanks a bunch!

I have a good friend from Iraq, a person of whom I've referenced a time or two in this forum, that I was going to meet up with for a couple of beers before this thing got crazy. His wife just had a baby a couple months ago so we decided to delay our get together. I was planning on asking him what the difference was between Iraq and Iran's responses to COVID-19.

One of my Iraqi co-workers said there are some Shia holidays that occurred recently causing them to gather against the recommendations. He said the Shia don't care, they just get together and now they have trouble. They are not doing that in Iraq according to him. It could be the case.

I do really consider social distancing is important. When I first read on this, I thought it would blow over quickly. As I kept watching the John Hopkin's map, I realized we're in a terrible situation. Not so much because many of us on a percentage basis will die, but because so many of us that are healthy or have minor symptoms are like Typhoid Mary's carrying this around where ever we go. Social distancing and isolation like we are doing if we follow it can really work because the carriers or mild symptoms can get over their infectious period lessening the overall impact while they develop true immunity.

Basically, we can socially isolate or distance for a few months building immunity since the number of infected people is probably five to ten times higher than tested cases. This isolation gives time for these untested cases to overcome the infectious period and get that herd immunity built.

I know that I've changed my attitude, not as much as others, but I'm taking it far more seriously than before. I have a daughter that is a charge nurse at an urgent care clinic and my wife worked in nursing homes as a nurse for 40 years. They both pretty much set my ass straight.

The problem is not everyone is coming to the party. As far as I know, my former employer is still operating their plants, not a one of which has less than 300 employees, and I keep seeing these images of college students and their spring break parties. They're not going to get sick from it or if they do, they'll recover quickly, but they're libel to give it to grandma or grandpa so they can get their inheritance early. Pisses me off to think that some parts of our society are willingly making huge sacrifices while others don't give a rip.

[I-5]

If you guys watched the video from the article I posted, it said that 35% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients were younger people (I forget the exact age, but def not senior citizens). I think people think you die or survive, and that it's that simple. I don't know about you, but I don't want to be hospitalized for this because it likely means you can't get enough oxygen. It could take weeks or months to get back to healthy, and there may be permanent issues afterwards from what I've been reading. This is not just an old person's illness by far. One of the bodies stretched out with a ventilator attached looked like a young man of no more than 23-25, and he was fully unconscious, unable to breathe on his own. That's terrifying.

[RiverDog]

If you guys watched the video from the article I posted, it said that 35% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients were younger people (I forget the exact age, but def not senior citizens). I think people think you die or survive, and that it's that simple. I don't know about you, but I don't want to be hospitalized for this because it likely means you can't get enough oxygen. It could take weeks or months to get back to healthy, and there may be permanent issues afterwards from what I've been reading. This is not just an old person's illness by far. One of the bodies stretched out with a ventilator attached looked like a young man of no more than 23-25, and he was fully unconscious, unable to breathe on his own. That's terrifying.

I posted some stats earlier in the thread related to age. Over half of France's coronavirus patients that are in intensive care are under 60. According to the CDC, 40% of those hospitalized in this country are between the ages of 20 and 54. Those folks are much more likely to recover than the 60+ folks everyone is worried about, but the problem isn't them, it's that they're taking up bed space, forcing providers to use more of everything from manpower to PPE's while posing a contamination risk to many others.

I was worried about the Deplorables not getting it, and they're still a lot of doubters out there as I see it every day on my Facebook feed, but it's the Gen Z crowd that's the problem. Part of it is a natural tendency that many if not most of us experienced when we were that age, the sensation that you're indestructible, that you'll be forever young, 10 or even 20 years seems like centuries away.

Speaking of the Deplorables, I have to give credit where credit is due. Over the past week or so, Trump has really come to the party. I still think he's a day late and a dollar short and it's not going to change my mind as far as not voting for him, but he's saying and doing all the right things. You're not even seeing him bomb throwing over Twitter recently.

[c_hawkbob]

I was just telling my wife that last night; that even though he was woefully late to the party it does seem that since his idiot presser a couple days ago (the one after which virtually everything he said had to amended, corrected or outright refuted by his own people and even by himself on twitter) he seems to have been convinced that either this is a serious issue or for the sake of his legacy he damn well better start taking it seriously and he actually seems to be doing some good things and looking presidential (for him). Even if his focus is still more on the economy than on us, that's an important factor in this whole thing, we don't want the economy to crumble around us while this thing is running it's course.

[RiverDog]

I was just telling my wife that last night; that even though he was woefully late to the party it does seem that since his idiot presser a couple days ago (the one after which virtually everything he said had to amended, corrected or outright refuted by his own people and even by himself on twitter) he seems to have been convinced that either this is a serious issue or for the sake of his legacy he damn well better start taking it seriously and he actually seems to be doing some good things and looking presidential (for him). Even if his focus is still more on the economy than on us, that's an important factor in this whole thing, we don't want the economy to crumble around us while this thing is running it's course.

There have been a few instances of Trump being unable to cure himself of his life long assholism disease, like a couple days ago when he told a bunch of governors that were telling him that they needed more ventilators to "get them yourselves", but by in large, he's been much less combative than he has at any point in his presidency. It makes you wonder what they must have told him to convince him of the threat and possible consequences.

I still won't listen to his speeches and press conferences, not because I hate the man, but for the reason you stated above: Everything he says has to be corrected or amended, so I might as well wait for the real story to come out. It's quite simply a waste of time listening to anything he has to say. It goes back to his poor work ethic, his being lazy, and his inability to recall basic facts, whether it be related to his age or something else. He's not a good source of information.

Yesterday's news conference is a prime example: President Donald Trump misstated the facts Thursday when he asserted that the Food and Drug Administration had just approved a decades-old malaria drug to treat patients infected by the coronavirus. After his FDA chief clarified that the drug still needs testing, Trump also overstated the drug's potential upside in helping contain the outbreak.

“And we're going to be able to make that drug ( chloroquine) available almost immediately, and that's where the FDA has been so great. They — they've gone through the approval process. It's been approved.”

But Trump falsely suggested to reporters that the FDA had just cleared the drug specifically for the viral pandemic spreading in communities across the U.S. That would mean that the drug had met the FDA's standards for safety and effectiveness.

Minutes later, FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn emphasized that the drug still needs testing to determine if it can help patients. He said chloroquine would have to be tested in “a large pragmatic clinical trial to actually gather that information.”

[Aseahawkfan]

I wouldn't listen to any politician right now unless he's issuing some order I have to follow. I'm following local news waiting for orders shutting things down from local government. The only people or articles I've been listening to are the experts and the factual information coming out. not articles trying to scare people like "40% of people in 20 to 54" are sick. BS scare articles because young people are being dumb. I have read the data and it is clear that older folks and those that are sick are the primary ones getting severely sick. Hospitalized doesn't mean much at this point since they hospitalized Tom Hanks with extremely mild symptoms for a week. Many of these cases may be hospitalization just in case for say people with diabetes or other high risk problems.

The article that would worry me is if we get a mutation that causes an additional wave that hits younger people harder. That would be truly worrisome and we need to hope that doesn't come.

The social distancing is necessary not because a large percentage will die, but because a large number will be infected and by virtue of that huge number even with a small percentage dying it will be a huge amount. It's pointless to argue at this point about obesity or smoking causing more deaths per year when we have this virus that will also do it involuntarily. Someone killing themselves by eating too much or inhaling smoke into their lungs is not the same as a bug spreading unchecked killing people indiscriminately. There is no comparison.

We have got to get this thing slowed down, which means untested, infected people need to self-quarantine and distance for this extended period to give their body time to filter this out of their system so they are not infectious. Once we do that for a while, hopefully no more than a month or two, we will see a lowering of cases and this will become manageable.

[Aseahawkfan]

If you guys watched the video from the article I posted, it said that 35% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients were younger people (I forget the exact age, but def not senior citizens). I think people think you die or survive, and that it's that simple. I don't know about you, but I don't want to be hospitalized for this because it likely means you can't get enough oxygen. It could take weeks or months to get back to healthy, and there may be permanent issues afterwards from what I've been reading. This is not just an old person's illness by far. One of the bodies stretched out with a ventilator attached looked like a young man of no more than 23-25, and he was fully unconscious, unable to breathe on his own. That's terrifying.

It is not just an old person's disease. It is very much a disease that hurts old people and people with other comobordities and I'm sure there are some anomalies within this. There are a lot of younger people with comorbidities. We have a huge number of young smokers, obese younger people, younger people with diabetes, asthma, other disorders like cystic fibrosis. Entire wards with children with cancer. We have a lot of younger people at high risk where letting this filter into their area would kill a bunch of them or come close to it. If Russell is still visiting children's wards, he has to be extra careful now.

I wouldn't go around my parents or older relatives right now unless they are already sick to help them. I would feel like I'm putting them at risk. I wish these idiotic younger people would get in their heads walking around spreading a disease because they aren't at risk isn't smart or moral.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I hate to say it, but there are still some deniers. River, the posts have blown up since I posted about my wife's and my work status, but, as of yesterday, the highway department asked everyone to work at home as much as possible. I can go in to get stuff on a flash drive or hard copy documents, but the name of the game is stay home. Governor Edwards (Louisiana) had a press conference yesterday stating that our state will be in the same boat as Italy if people don't start taking it seriously; that, the rising numbers coming out of New Orleans and the Secretary of Transportation (the head of the state agency I work for) testing positive for COVID-19, I assume, prompted him to make all state employees work from home. An appropriate measure, in my opinion, though they aren't set up well for remote work.

As for my wife's work, they had a meeting earlier this week where her supervisor talked about why they should be working at the office instead of at home. One the of the supervisors even said he believes it is being over blown on purpose. This is all after my wife showed me a corporate email where the company stated they support people working from home as much as possible. An email this morning stated "now that most of our employees are working from home...". My wife was decidedly distraught that her office (which has a certain degree of autonomy; the company would probably blast them if they knew) isn't following corporate expectations. They are so damned worried about a dead line that they expect (unspoken) people to power through and come in sick. I used to work there, and they've always put the deadline first which is why I finally left. Shameful.

[RiverDog]

I hate to say it, but there are still some deniers. River, the posts have blown up since I posted about my wife's and my work status, but, as of yesterday, the highway department asked everyone to work at home as much as possible. I can go in to get stuff on a flash drive or hard copy documents, but the name of the game is stay home. Governor Edwards (Louisiana) had a press conference yesterday stating that our state will be in the same boat as Italy if people don't start taking it seriously; that, the rising numbers coming out of New Orleans and the Secretary of Transportation (the head of the state agency I work for) testing positive for COVID-19, I assume, prompted him to make all state employees work from home. An appropriate measure, in my opinion, though they aren't set up well for remote work.

As for my wife's work, they had a meeting earlier this week where her supervisor talked about why they should be working at the office instead of at home. One the of the supervisors even said he believes it is being over blown on purpose. This is all after my wife showed me a corporate email where the company stated they support people working from home as much as possible. An email this morning stated "now that most of our employees are working from home...". My wife was decidedly distraught that her office (which has a certain degree of autonomy; the company would probably blast them if they knew) isn't following corporate expectations. They are so damned worried about a dead line that they expect (unspoken) people to power through and come in sick. I used to work there, and they've always put the deadline first which is why I finally left. Shameful.

Well, at least you and your wife are taking it seriously.

I'm pretty disappointed in both my former employer and our state government that they're still operating. I saw a post last night from one of the managers where their offices are trying to do as much of their work remotely but their production facilities are still operating. If we made items that were critical, I could understand it, but we make frigging French fries for McDonald's! For sure, they're going to suffer big time no matter what they do, but they're putting their employees and many, many others at risk. I don't want to jump to conclusions yet as they may be preparing to shut down or reached some sort of agreement with the state, but they can do an orderly shut down in less than 24 hours.

[Aseahawkfan]

There are a lot of people eating out at fast food with drive thru windows. Not being flippant, but it's true. With grocery stores running bare (I finally got a bag of potatoes after a week), a lot of people hitting those fast food places.

I can't do my job from home. Neither can most of the workers. We have to show up. Our job is essential to an essential company right now. We have to hope we don't get hit by this. I'm pretty much home-work-occasional grocery trip for food. I'm stocked up for more than two weeks. If the Governor orders a shelter-in-place, I'll probably still have to go in. Fortunately I think I already had COVID along with a bunch of the staff as it got passed around. We had symptoms similar to those listed. Lots of fevers, colds, sore throats, and all them a little strange, mild, but lasted a while. Fortunately, no fatalities or seriously sick people.

[RiverDog]

There are a lot of people eating out at fast food with drive thru windows. Not being flippant, but it's true. With grocery stores running bare (I finally got a bag of potatoes after a week), a lot of people hitting those fast food places.

Yes, but people can't go into the store. A single drive through window can't serve nearly as many people as 3-4 registers inside the store. Besides, fast food resteraunts are only part of their business. They do lots of business with chains like Applebee's, Red Lobster, Buffalo Wild Wings, food courts, baseball stadiums, schools, etc. Additionally, they always operate on several months worth of inventory. So far, all they've talked about is shutting down businesses for a couple of weeks.

[RiverDog]

I can't do my job from home. Neither can most of the workers. We have to show up. Our job is essential to an essential company right now. We have to hope we don't get hit by this. I'm pretty much home-work-occasional grocery trip for food. I'm stocked up for more than two weeks. If the Governor orders a shelter-in-place, I'll probably still have to go in. Fortunately I think I already had COVID along with a bunch of the staff as it got passed around. We had symptoms similar to those listed. Lots of fevers, colds, sore throats, and all them a little strange, mild, but lasted a while. Fortunately, no fatalities or seriously sick people.

Yea, that's a problem alright. That's why I have mixed emotions complaining about my former employer. Many of the people I used to work with live from paycheck to paycheck and can't afford even a couple weeks layoff. Plus if they don't work X amount of weeks in one month, they won't be eligible for insurance for the following month. Hopefully they address those problems if a stoppage becomes necessary, but it's easy for someone like me to sit here an complain about a facility that's still running when I don't have to worry where my next meal is coming from or paying next month's rent. Anyhow, that's the dilemma I keep thinking about.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

Well, at least you and your wife are taking it seriously.

I'm pretty disappointed in both my former employer and our state government that they're still operating. I saw a post last night from one of the managers where their offices are trying to do as much of their work remotely but their production facilities are still operating. If we made items that were critical, I could understand it, but we make frigging French fries for McDonald's! For sure, they're going to suffer big time no matter what they do, but they're putting their employees and many, many others at risk. I don't want to jump to conclusions yet as they may be preparing to shut down or reached some sort of agreement with the state, but they can do an orderly shut down in less than 24 hours.

Update: My wife got off this afternoon after her leadership reconsidered their position in light of the governor's press conference. So, she's going to be able to work from home now, too. The right decision.

We did go out to get her a proper laptop for her to work from (she has an old and busted MacBook), and all the grocery stores are packed with one of the chains (based in New Orleans) having their credit card systems crash due to high volume. Getting real around here. I think, eventually, everything but grocery stores, pharmacies, and utilities are all that will be open. Maybe not even grocery stores.

[RiverDog]

Update: My wife got off this afternoon after her leadership reconsidered their position in light of the governor's press conference. So, she's going to be able to work from home now, too. The right decision.

We did go out to get her a proper laptop for her to work from (she has an old and busted MacBook), and all the grocery stores are packed with one of the chains (based in New Orleans) having their credit card systems crash due to high volume. Getting real around here. I think, eventually, everything but grocery stores, pharmacies, and utilities are all that will be open. Maybe not even grocery stores.

Glad to hear that cooler heads have prevailed!

Grocery stores and pharmacies have to stay open. Many of them are offering curbside or home delivery. A lot of the grocery stores around here have change their hours. Some are having to hire extra workers to handle the increased volume. Some that were open 24/7 are now closed at night in order to re-stock. A lot of them have started offering senior only hours, usually right after store opening when everything is stocked. Many items have per person limits and there's signage warning that returns are not accepted.

Our dentist called my wife to tell her that her appointment has been canceled. I've postponed some minor doctor's visits, to get a couple callouses scraped off my feet and a vision exam with my optometrist.

I have a vacation to Iceland scheduled for mid June. We're still hopeful of going but the tour company has indicated that they'll be flexible if there's a state dept advisory against international travel as there is now. It's a small group tour, 8-12 people in a mini van, that will circumnavigate the island so there's very little chance of contracting the virus. I've selected window seats on all my flights as that's the spot least likely to contract something from another person.

[Aseahawkfan]

Yea, that's a problem alright. That's why I have mixed emotions complaining about my former employer. Many of the people I used to work with live from paycheck to paycheck and can't afford even a couple weeks layoff. Plus if they don't work X amount of weeks in one month, they won't be eligible for insurance for the following month. Hopefully they address those problems if a stoppage becomes necessary, but it's easy for someone like me to sit here an complain about a facility that's still running when I don't have to worry where my next meal is coming from or paying next month's rent. Anyhow, that's the dilemma I keep thinking about.

My people in the same situation. No word from our employer if we will get paid during a quarantine or forced sheltering. We lose insurance if we don't maintain full time status. Another one of those reasons I'd prefer to socialize health insurance and make sure it is always there. Imagine if a great many companies follow the precise rules and tell people to get help from the government. They're definitely liable to go if that's how you feel, might as well be that way all the time.

[RiverDog]

My people in the same situation. No word from our employer if we will get paid during a quarantine or forced sheltering. We lose insurance if we don't maintain full time status. Another one of those reasons I'd prefer to socialize health insurance and make sure it is always there. Imagine if a great many companies follow the precise rules and tell people to get help from the government. They're definitely liable to go if that's how you feel, might as well be that way all the time.

I'm not exactly sure what the rules are on insurance coverage in a forced layoff, but I doubt that either an employer or an insurance company would want the negative PR if they laid off people then kicked them off insurance. Those rules need to be changed to at least a quarterly basis if not annual.

Italy reported another 627 deaths today. Spain is also getting hit hard, they're saying that 80% of Madrid will be infected. The governor of CA is saying that half the state could be infected within the next 8 weeks. If that prediction comes true, we're talking 18-20 million infected and at a death rate of 3.4%, that's over 600,000 dead. 7 counties in the Bay Area have been ordered to shelter in place, only permissible reason to leave home is for groceries or drugs.

[Aseahawkfan]

I'm not exactly sure what the rules are on insurance coverage in a forced layoff, but I doubt that either an employer or an insurance company would want the negative PR if they laid off people then kicked them off insurance. Those rules need to be changed to at least a quarterly basis if not annual.

Italy reported another 627 deaths today. Spain is also getting hit hard, they're saying that 80% of Madrid will be infected. The governor of CA is saying that half the state could be infected within the next 8 weeks. If that prediction comes true, we're talking 18-20 million infected and at a death rate of 3.4%, that's over 600,000 dead. 7 counties in the Bay Area have been ordered to shelter in place, only permissible reason to leave home is for groceries or drugs.

Just remember, the death rate is inflated because testing won't be able to catch everyone infected unless they do mandatory testing for those with mild or no symptoms. We're at 1.2 or 1.3% right now. It should be lower. Italy probably has hundreds of thousands of untested cases with mild to no symptoms. The amount of testing they are doing is nowhere close to identifying all the cases which is why all the idiots need to not travel and shelter in place. We don't have the testing for everyone and the vast majority of people have no to mild symptoms, but are infectious. I always assume were five times or more the number of tested cases.

This is about slowing the peak from the huge number already infected. But some idiots just aren't getting it.

That being said it sure would be nice to see Italy peak and start winding down. They are getting hammered.

[RiverDog]

Just remember, the death rate is inflated because testing won't be able to catch everyone infected unless they do mandatory testing for those with mild or no symptoms. We're at 1.2 or 1.3% right now. It should be lower. Italy probably has hundreds of thousands of untested cases with mild to no symptoms. The amount of testing they are doing is nowhere close to identifying all the cases which is why all the idiots need to not travel and shelter in place. We don't have the testing for everyone and the vast majority of people have no to mild symptoms, but are infectious. I always assume were five times or more the number of tested cases.

That's true, but even if we were to reduce the death rate number I used, 3.4%, and use 1% instead, that's still 180,000 deaths. If we experience anything close to those kinds of numbers in just one state, our country could descend into complete chaos.

This is about slowing the peak from the huge number already infected. But some idiots just aren't getting it.

I'm not so sure about that. There's still huge numbers that haven't been tested, so we don't know how widespread this is. That's the scary thing. We just don't have enough information. Only when we are able to do large scale testing will we know if this has peaked or not.

You're preaching to the choir regarding people that don't get it. There are some people that just don't want to admit that they were wrong. I see them every day on my Facebook feed. Inslee makes a statement and I start seeing scores of posts comparing his coronavirus predictions to his predictions on global warming or some stupid crap like that.

That being said it sure would be nice to see Italy peak and start winding down. They are getting hammered.

Yea, it seems like it just keeps getting worse in Italy. Spain, in particular Madrid, seems like it's next. No wonder they've banned travel to and from Europe. Looks like we're going to have to count on the oceans to protect us.

[Aseahawkfan]

Spain is part of Southern Europe. We'll see how it goes, but I expect most Southern European nations to be overwhelmed because of their comparatively weak economies and lack of funds to boost technology investment. And the general cultural differences that don't put as much emphasis on order and efficiency.

[RiverDog]

Spain is part of Southern Europe. We'll see how it goes, but I expect most Southern European nations to be overwhelmed because of their comparatively weak economies and lack of funds to boost technology investment. And the general cultural differences that don't put as much emphasis on order and efficiency.

I don't disagree that southern Europe is going to get hit hard, but IMO it won't be due to the lack of technology investment. The key is preparedness NOW, which means hospital beds, respirators, ICU's, how effective their society is at preventing the spread, etc.

I chatted with my daughter last night. If you will recall, she's a nurse at an urgent care clinic in Spokane. Her hospital has 3 urgent care clinics, and the one she works at has been designated as the "clean" clinic as they have other specialties in the building, while the other two are designated "dirty", meaning that anyone that shows up with symptoms at the "clean" clinic is stopped at the door and sent to one of the dirty clinics for testing. So far, things haven't been getting too crazy at her clinic but she's concerned about the lack of PPE's, says they're already running short of gowns and that their managers are telling them that it's OK to test people without them. She's convinced that she'll eventually end up with COVID-19.

What it's all about now, at least in our country, is buying time. If we can stave off the peak period of infection, allow industry to ramp up production of needed equipment and supplies, get into the warmer, wetter summer months, then maybe we can get out of this without experiencing what they're going through in western Europe.

[I-5]

Riv, prayers for your daughter and all those on the front line (the only line, really) during these times. Who knew it would accelerate so quickly. None of us has any frame of reference for this within our lifetime. I think we’ll see very soon if we’ll fare differently than Italy. It’s true the US has far more resources - the question is if we are prepared, and I’m concerned about the ability of the US to track the disease the way Korea or Taiwan, heck even Vietnam, has been doing. Asian countries are just different in how people accept authority, sometimes both good and bad, but in this case I think it’s to their advantage.

Right now, Italy has more hospital beds per capita than the US (3.2 hospital beds per 1,000 people as compared with 2.8 in the United States). There are encouraging news of companies like Holland America (I designed some of their cruise brochures in the past) offering to convert their ships to non-Covid hospitals and Zara offering to make hospital scrubs and potentially masks (albeit Spain, which is being hit harder than any country except Italy), and car companies potentially making medical equipment. It’s an all out war, just a different enemy. Maybe this is the world war we’ve been waiting for, but it does give me more hope seeing some of the positive ways people have shown themselves.