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So all indications are that the second quarter of 2020 will be the worst economic numbers in history. Here are just some of the tidbits we're looking forward to in the 2nd quarter:

1. 0% interest rates meaning people aren't making much money loaning their money via savings accounts and loans while at the same time 14.9% or higher unemployment creating a situation where people can't afford to borrow money even at these low rates.

2. Defaults on mortgages and rents like we've never seen hitting the property market.

3. Restaurants and entertainment industries at the lowest level of demand in modern history.

4. Boeing may go bankrupt even though it will be saved by the government. Zero aircraft orders in April, the second time this happened in history. Companies canceling aircraft orders at a rapid pace.

5. Low oil demand and massive oversupply with the lowest demand for oil in history.

6. Transportation industry slaughtered. Domestic flights, buses, and ships nearly grounded. Flight demand 90% down from peak. Can't take advantage of low oil prices.

7. Companies canceling TV advertising budgets, which will hit ad driven TV studios. https://www.wsj.com/articles/from-pepsi ... 1589298017

8. Disneyland and every other amusement park closed. Revenue losses on par with cruise industry.

9. Nail salons, barbers, and grooming industry slaughtered.

10. Unemployment claims at 30 million and growing.

11. All businesses associated with professional sports going to get non-existent. Pretty much destroyed.

12. Car production and associated companies hammered by 50% or more. https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/cor ... r-earnings

13. Agriculture hammered, slaughtering livestock they can't use, grinding under crops. and industry hammered.

14. Medical profits hammered from a lack of usual revenue streams from non-COVID treatments.

This list could go on. And the above occurred with one month of lock down. The second quarter will have two plus months of lock down.

If you're not a big tech company, a key medical company, or grocery store, you're likely getting hammered. It's like a tidal wave hit the economy and we're not absolutely sure what will survive. It will take years likely to recover from this and some industries may not recover. The Great Depression took a long time to fully recover and even The Great Recession took over a 5 years to get fully back on track and still we had bumps. This will likely take over a decade to recover. We're going to see millions lose their houses, jobs, and financial savings. This is likely to make The Great Recession look like wishful thinking if the plan going forward is to lock down and social distance all the time.

We have committed economic suicide that is going to last for years to save lives from this virus. No amount of printing is going to stop what is coming and no amount of taxing is going to fix it.

What do you plan to do to prepare for and survive this economic collapse?

1. I plan to stack cash until the coming crash occurs then sift for quality stocks. I am sticking to tech stocks at the moment able to make money in a stay at home, highly limited market.

2. Stay employed as long as possible.

3. Put aside cash for a property purchase when the foreclosures start and the property prices come down from the loss of demand and overabundance of supply from the huge amount of building that was occurring before the coronavirus collapse.


How do you plan to preserve your retirement, investments, cash, and property during this historic economic damage?

On top of this, every time a country reopens the COVID19 cases spike. It's going to keep happening. I said a while back that we would have to learn to accept a lot of death to save the modern world and I stand by that. This virus is not going away. It is too deeply dug into the population. It is hard to track and notice given it has so many asymptomatic carriers. It's going to continue to kill a lot of people.

The governors keep shutting things down and doing what they're doing, we're going to keep digging the economic hole deeper and deeper. I don't think increased testing or anything they can do without shutting down is going to slow it. If you let people out, this virus is going to spread. There is only one option that allows the economy to continue and that is accept death, period. There is no tricking the virus. It is not going to disappear. We cannot get rid of it. A vaccine will only reduce its effect to flu like levels we hope.

These politicians are going to have to learn to allow people to die just like a war to allow the world economy to thrive again. I don't see anyway getting around it with testing or without. There is only some mitigation which testing will help. But you can't keep the world locked down and expect to have a quality world.

The economy will come back. That's why the stock market has been so relatively resilient, because investors know that the economy will eventually rebound. Those people on Wall Street aren't stupid. They are speculators looking into the future. A lot more would have sold short had they thought that this was going to turn into a 21st century, years long depression.

I have been driven progressively to the conclusion that we're not doing things right, that there's a lot of businesses that need to start up immediately, and indeed, some that should never have been shut down in the first place. Many construction jobs are solitary endeavors performed in open air environments many yards away from others. Gyms could still have operated if they were to have moved their workout stations 6' apart, install portable hand washing stations, and required patrons to wear masks. Even barber shops and beauty parlors could have operated if they insisted that everyone wear masks and maintain social distancing. If supermarkets and big box stores can do it, then so should smaller businesses with many fewer patrons.

But I do agree that we're in for a lot of blood letting, and that it's going to take several years for things to get back to where they were in February when this all started coming down on us. It's also going to change a lot of things about the way we conduct our lives, or at the very least force many entities that create large gatherings of people to have a contingency plan to deal with a pandemic. This could include industries such as the meat and poultry packing business and other labor-intensive jobs. They'll have to plan for more personal workspace for their employees, expand lunch rooms to include booth seating with Plexiglas partitions, widen hallways, institute staggered starting/quitting times and eliminate long lines at the time clock. Public transportation may have to separate more areas with Plexiglas partitions. Passes with boarding times may have to be issued to prevent large throngs waiting for the next train/bus. Masks on airline flights may become as much of a requirement as not smoking. You'll see many more hand washing stations in public areas.

Hopefully we learn something from this pandemic that does not cause us to have to go through this kind of grief.

They will have to design emergency aid plans to assist those most affected by a pandemic rather than use a shotgun approach and give everyone a $1200 check regardless of their need. Governments will need to start stockpiling medical equipment as a part of a national repository that states allotted by population that they can draw on without approval of the Feds, and if they need more, request that another state lend them part of their allotment.

RiverDog wrote:The economy will come back. That's why the stock market has been so relatively resilient, because investors know that the economy will eventually rebound. Those people on Wall Street aren't stupid. They are speculators looking into the future. A lot more would have sold short had they thought that this was going to turn into a 21st century, years long depression.

I have been driven progressively to the conclusion that we're not doing things right, that there's a lot of businesses that need to start up immediately, and indeed, some that should never have been shut down in the first place. Many construction jobs are solitary endeavors performed in open air environments many yards away from others. Gyms could still have operated if they were to have moved their workout stations 6' apart, install portable hand washing stations, and required patrons to wear masks. Even barber shops and beauty parlors could have operated if they insisted that everyone wear masks and maintain social distancing. If supermarkets and big box stores can do it, then so should smaller businesses with many fewer patrons.

But I do agree that we're in for a lot of blood letting, and that it's going to take several years for things to get back to where they were in February when this all started coming down on us. It's also going to change a lot of things about the way we conduct our lives, or at the very least force many entities that create large gatherings of people to have a contingency plan to deal with a pandemic. This could include industries such as the meat and poultry packing business and other labor-intensive jobs. They'll have to plan for more personal workspace for their employees, expand lunch rooms to include booth seating with Plexiglas partitions, widen hallways, institute staggered starting/quitting times and eliminate long lines at the time clock. Public transportation may have to separate more areas with Plexiglas partitions. Passes with boarding times may have to be issued to prevent large throngs waiting for the next train/bus. Masks on airline flights may become as much of a requirement as not smoking. You'll see many more hand washing stations in public areas.

Hopefully we learn something from this pandemic that does not cause us to have to go through this kind of grief.

They will have to design emergency aid plans to assist those most affected by a pandemic rather than use a shotgun approach and give everyone a $1200 check regardless of their need. Governments will need to start stockpiling medical equipment as a part of a national repository that states allotted by population that they can draw on without approval of the Feds, and if they need more, request that another state lend them part of their allotment.

No. The smart money who don't have to seek gains are not buying.

It's going to be terrible. You really must not follow the financial news. There is a tidal wave coming and it's going hammer our economy the worst it ever has. The market is disconnected from reality. No amount of stimulus will keep this afloat. Everywhere that tries to open gets hit by more COVID19 cases. If they keep closing down again when this happens and it will happen, they are going to screw us worse.

You are about witness an economic event never seen before. I've never seen this kind of information coming, not before the 2001 crash or the 2008 crash. This is the most terrible I've seen it.

Warren Buffet, the notoriously patient investor, sold all his airline stocks. He is not buying any stocks right now. He doesn't expect airlines to come back any time soon.

The number of investors staying away from the current market is just adding up. The disconnect from reality is the same type of disconnect from reality I watched occur during 2001 and 2008 in the stock market, except this will likely be worse.

The earnings are not as terrible as they will be in the second quarter because it only includes one month of lock down. The second quarter is going to absolutely the worst in history, if it somehow avoids that dubious record then it will be top 3. The economy is going to contract substantially and it will not grow back quick with all the reduced capacity orders, general fear, and the like circulating. It's going to be pretty terrible.

The only happy companies will be companies like Amazon, Walmart, and Big Tech, who will take smaller hits or in the case of Amazon much bigger profits.

You have been warned. The bad economic news in the coming quarter is going to be the most terrible in history. The market will eventually catch up. Unemployment will be high for a while because demand is not going to ramp up quick in several big industries like airlines, sports, dine in restaurants, theaters, amusement parks, and the like. Their demand will be forcibly reduced with COVID19 limitations. And that will ripple through the economy putting downward demand pressure that will keep unemployment, earnings growth,and GDP growth down as all associated companies are hit.

You are going to experience the 2nd worst economy in U.S. history behind The Great Depression but ahead of The Great Recession.

Aseahawkfan wrote:You are going to experience the 2nd worst economy in U.S. history behind The Great Depression but ahead of The Great Recession.

I don't doubt that. Yes, the 2nd quarter is going to be trash, as will the rest of 2020, and probably well into next year. I've said repeatedly that it's going to take several years for the economy to recover to where it was before the virus struck. But it will recover eventually. We're not going to be in for another decade long Great Depression.

RiverDog wrote:I don't doubt that. Yes, the 2nd quarter is going to be trash, as will the rest of 2020, and probably well into next year. I've said repeatedly that it's going to take several years for the economy to recover to where it was before the virus struck. But it will recover eventually. We're not going to be in for another decade long Great Depression.

You did say that. I have to admit I was too optimistic. You were more right on this one. We are royally screwed. I've been reading the financial news and oh boy are we screwed.

I read some of the imposed guidelines for restaurants. No more than 4 people coming in together and open tables kept apart. That alone will not only make dining unpleasant and keep large families from gathering, it will automatically reduce by capacity for the restaurant by 50%. So even if you are able to open your restaurant, your capacity is going to be reduced by 50%. So all these dine-in restaurants and fast casual places that make their money from gatherings, bars, and the like, they're automatically reduced by 50% from the get go if people still want to come in. 50% reduced capacity means 50% plus reduced profits even when they can open again.

Airline flights not being able to use the middle seat reduce their capacity by 33%. Even if everyone decides to fly again, airline capacity and profits will be forcibly reduced by 33%. Some airlines have already stated losing the middle seat means they will go bankrupt.

Airlines go bankrupt, airline production drops to nearly nothing. Parts makers and engine makers like GE lose profits and production.

The list of the terrible that is going to happen I can't even list it all. Starbucks is demanding rent deferral and protection. They have an enormous amount of stores. If they defer rent, that will take a huge chunk of income out of the economy. They are not the only large chain doing this.

I"m literally watching this tidal wave heading for the economy as company after company lists the measures they're taking to survive this and it's terrible. Trump thinks things are going to open up fast and quickly return to normal. He's crazy. The numbers on paper will look amazing, historically good, but only because after your economy contracts 30% followed by a 14% increase you can make that sound great when really it's still a 16% loss not replaced.

California is predicting 54 billion shortfall in their general fund. They're going to be paying unemployment with smoke and mirrors. Our national debt will rise by historical levels as well.

Man, never thought I would see something like this. And this COVID19 is going to keep coming back every time we re-open. Don't go out if you're in that danger zone, RD. It will be a while until they have a vaccine and/or treatment. I really feel bad for this younger generation, but at least they won't have it as bad as the post-war Depression Era. Modern technology and better economic understanding of how to sustain a damaged economy will keep America from Depression Era life.

RiverDog wrote:I don't doubt that. Yes, the 2nd quarter is going to be trash, as will the rest of 2020, and probably well into next year. I've said repeatedly that it's going to take several years for the economy to recover to where it was before the virus struck. But it will recover eventually. We're not going to be in for another decade long Great Depression.

Aseahawkfan wrote:You did say that. I have to admit I was too optimistic. You were more right on this one. We are royally screwed. I've been reading the financial news and oh boy are we screwed.

Way to man up! Not everyone in here admits to their very human trait of being wrong from time to time.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I read some of the imposed guidelines for restaurants. No more than 4 people coming in together and open tables kept apart. That alone will not only make dining unpleasant and keep large families from gathering, it will automatically reduce by capacity for the restaurant by 50%. So even if you are able to open your restaurant, your capacity is going to be reduced by 50%. So all these dine-in restaurants and fast casual places that make their money from gatherings, bars, and the like, they're automatically reduced by 50% from the get go if people still want to come in. 50% reduced capacity means 50% plus reduced profits even when they can open again.

If you want an investment tip, buy stock in who ever makes Plexiglas. Restaurants are installing dividers to slice up their dining areas into cubes.

The other problem, as far as I'm concerned, is that they're prohibiting bar seating. Although I'm happily married, I quite often go into a pub and sit down at a bar and watch a football game or wait for some friends. It also keeps you from making friends with a stranger.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Airline flights not being able to use the middle seat reduce their capacity by 33%. Even if everyone decides to fly again, airline capacity and profits will be forcibly reduced by 33%. Some airlines have already stated losing the middle seat means they will go bankrupt.

Some of my Seahawk traveling buddies have talked about going to the season opener in Atlanta. Although I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell of the season opening w/o deal breaking restrictions, I checked on airline tickets for this September just for the hell of it. I can get a round trip ticket from Pasco to ATL for $225. That's unheard of. You'd have a hard time finding a round trip ticket from Pasco to Seattle for that price. The major airlines can afford to wait out the two years it's going to take to get the economy back to normal.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Man, never thought I would see something like this. And this COVID19 is going to keep coming back every time we re-open. Don't go out if you're in that danger zone, RD. It will be a while until they have a vaccine and/or treatment. I really feel bad for this younger generation, but at least they won't have it as bad as the post-war Depression Era. Modern technology and better economic understanding of how to sustain a damaged economy will keep America from Depression Era life.

Thanks for your concern. My wife is more susceptible than I am. She has two auto immune diseases, MS and rheumatoid arthritis, so I've been making the 2 trips weekly to the grocery store. I have an N95 mask that a paramedic neighbor of ours gave to us. Being retired, we are in a lot better position to ride this out than most people.

What I worry about more than the disease and/or the economy is civil discord. We'll eventually get a vaccine and tame this disease. The economy will rebound in a couple of years. But there's too many people out there don't understand the threat, view it in political terms, thinking that their rights are being taken away from them because the government is telling them to wear a mask. I see it on my Facebook news feed. Trump isn't helping things at all, even encouraging rebellion. I worry that someone is going to try to assassinate a governor, perhaps Newsom in California. I worry that the KKK or neo Nazis will do something to incite a riot. With 36 million people out of work, many of them w/o formal educations, they are very subject to being manipulated.

Rush Limbaugh told his listeners this week that the Democrats are willing to trash the economy just to make sure that Trump isn't re-elected. It's rhetoric like that which concerns me. We're sitting on a powder keg, not unlike the civil rights/Vietnam era of the late 60's.

RiverDog wrote:What I worry about more than the disease and/or the economy is civil discord. We'll eventually get a vaccine and tame this disease. The economy will rebound in a couple of years. But there's too many people out there don't understand the threat, view it in political terms, thinking that their rights are being taken away from them because the government is telling them to wear a mask. I see it on my Facebook news feed. Trump isn't helping things at all, even encouraging rebellion. I worry that someone is going to try to assassinate a governor, perhaps Newsom in California. I worry that the KKK or neo Nazis will do something to incite a riot. With 36 million people out of work, many of them w/o formal educations, they are very subject to being manipulated.

Rush Limbaugh told his listeners this week that the Democrats are willing to trash the economy just to make sure that Trump isn't re-elected. It's rhetoric like that which concerns me. We're sitting on a powder keg, not unlike the civil rights/Vietnam era of the late 60's.

Someone may try some act of rebellion like firing at cops or trying to kill a politician. That happened before this lock down and this is only making it worse. I'm honestly surprised we haven't seen some mass shooting or police stand off with some crazies given how long this has been going on.

And these lock down orders are unconstitutional. This is an emergency powers order that will be enforced by martial law if necessary. Make no mistake about it, these emergency orders and their enforcement will be a temporary suspension of your constitutional rights. Same as they do during war time. The government may start off by asking, but if it gets to the point where they think it must be enforced they will suspend your constitutional rights and bring the hammer down. Then it will be up to the American people to decide if they think it is warranted or not using all the means for doing so available to them including armed resistance which is what the 2nd Amendment is for. This is working as intended.

It would be nice if Americans were rational, organized, and trusting of their government, but you know that ain't us. So they'll fight and politicize this thing as they do with everything. I think most Americans are on board with listening to the government as long as they show some progress towards getting things right. I think most Americans know we can't stay locked down, but also can't return to normal. There has to be measures taken to slow this down, but at the same time get things operational again or our lives will be terrible.

Hopefully the system continues to work as intended and this pushing and pulling between these various groups leads us to a solution we can all handle. I imagine we may see some extreme act of violence against these stay at home orders that causes the government to start dismantling these groups as they did after the Oklahoma City Bombing. They really tore apart militia groups after that. It has taken them years to rebuild to what they are now. If they try something extreme, they'll be ripped apart again. Though I hope it doesn't come to this.

And yeah, it would be nice if President Dumbass would have a Federal plan and be backing his governors, not arguing with them. Then again I don't know how much the governors are reciprocating by ignoring his plans as well. There is so much mutual animosity, I have no idea who is willing to work together. Be nice if we had a president that could get people together. As I said in another thread, I think even G.W. Bush Jr. and Cheney would have had an intelligent Federal plan in place working with their governors. Cheney is a very corrupt man, but also very intelligent and focused when he needs to be.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Someone may try some act of rebellion like firing at cops or trying to kill a politician. That happened before this lock down and this is only making it worse. I'm honestly surprised we haven't seen some mass shooting or police stand off with some crazies given how long this has been going on.

And these lock down orders are unconstitutional. This is an emergency powers order that will be enforced by martial law if necessary. Make no mistake about it, these emergency orders and their enforcement will be a temporary suspension of your constitutional rights. Same as they do during war time. The government may start off by asking, but if it gets to the point where they think it must be enforced they will suspend your constitutional rights and bring the hammer down. Then it will be up to the American people to decide if they think it is warranted or not using all the means for doing so available to them including armed resistance which is what the 2nd Amendment is for. This is working as intended.

It would be nice if Americans were rational, organized, and trusting of their government, but you know that ain't us. So they'll fight and politicize this thing as they do with everything. I think most Americans are on board with listening to the government as long as they show some progress towards getting things right. I think most Americans know we can't stay locked down, but also can't return to normal. There has to be measures taken to slow this down, but at the same time get things operational again or our lives will be terrible.

Hopefully the system continues to work as intended and this pushing and pulling between these various groups leads us to a solution we can all handle. I imagine we may see some extreme act of violence against these stay at home orders that causes the government to start dismantling these groups as they did after the Oklahoma City Bombing. They really tore apart militia groups after that. It has taken them years to rebuild to what they are now. If they try something extreme, they'll be ripped apart again. Though I hope it doesn't come to this.

And yeah, it would be nice if President Dumbass would have a Federal plan and be backing his governors, not arguing with them. Then again I don't know how much the governors are reciprocating by ignoring his plans as well. There is so much mutual animosity, I have no idea who is willing to work together. Be nice if we had a president that could get people together. As I said in another thread, I think even G.W. Bush Jr. and Cheney would have had an intelligent Federal plan in place working with their governors. Cheney is a very corrupt man, but also very intelligent and focused when he needs to be.

It isn't just his failure to have a plan and his habit of arguing with the governors that bothers me. He does not lead by example. Just yesterday, Trump was touring a PPE manufacturing facility and he was the only one in a group of a dozen or so that wasn't wearing a mask. This sends a signal of defiance to many, many others and exacerbates the very volatile situation that currently exists at a time when he needs to be calling for unity and compliance.

It's an example of my #1 criticism of DJT: He's a poor leader.

RiverDog wrote:It isn't just his failure to have a plan and his habit of arguing with the governors that bothers me. He does not lead by example. Just yesterday, Trump was touring a PPE manufacturing facility and he was the only one in a group of a dozen or so that wasn't wearing a mask. This sends a signal of defiance to many, many others and exacerbates the very volatile situation that currently exists at a time when he needs to be calling for unity and compliance.

It's an example of my #1 criticism of DJT: He's a poor leader.

Maybe he thinks it makes him look strong to walk around without a mask like he's like "COVID19, come get me. I can take you out." Imagine if he gets this virus and shrugs it off? Then he will be insufferable.

The guy is terrible to have as a leader during this pandemic. Even if his people are doing a good job behind him, he's terrible at communicating it. He's acting like he barely cares and this is some kind of inconvenience that is derailing his great economy that he just wants to get over with. Fricking pathetic and idiotic. If the Democrats could muster an even halfway decent candidate, they would send him packing. I hope this Biden can show better than Hilary in November. Trump is terrible as the face of the United States during a pandemic.

Aseahawkfan wrote:If the Democrats could muster an even halfway decent candidate, they would send him packing. I hope this Biden can show better than Hilary in November. Trump is terrible as the face of the United States during a pandemic.

I don't think we're ever going to see another Reagan-like landslide election. Obama's 2008 election where he won 365 electoral votes will be a high water mark, although I think Biden has a chance to come close to that standard. Even Idahawkman backed way off his boast, by over 200 electoral votes, when he initially claimed that Trump would win by a Reagan-like '84 landslide.

With nothing better to do, I looked at the 2016 electoral map and did a crude calculation based on state polls to see how the vote would break if it were held today. Biden is ahead in 5 states that Trump won in 2016, a flip of 86 electoral votes. Trump isn't leading in a single state that Hillary won. There's a lot that could go wrong with that calculation, one being that we're still politically light years away from the election and another being the unreliability of state wide polling. Plus who knows how the virus will affect turnout. Will Trump voters that are generally dismissive of the threat the virus is to them turn out while big city Biden supporters that are terrified stay home? Or will the older generation, more likely to vote for Trump, stay home because they realize their age makes them at risk?

There's reason to believe that the opinions won't change much between now and November. Trump's popularity has remained extremely consistent, in the mid 40's for almost his entire presidency no matter what happens. But there is a question about Biden, if he's going to be able to survive the sexual assault charge and still get out the liberal female vote?

RiverDog wrote:I don't think we're ever going to see another Reagan-like landslide election. Obama's 2008 election where he won 365 electoral votes will be a high water mark, although I think Biden has a chance to come close to that standard. Even Idahawkman backed way off his boast, by over 200 electoral votes, when he initially claimed that Trump would win by a Reagan-like '84 landslide.

I'm not even sure Reagan could do what he did then with social media around.

[qupte]With nothing better to do, I looked at the 2016 electoral map and did a crude calculation based on state polls to see how the vote would break if it were held today. Biden is ahead in 5 states that Trump won in 2016, a flip of 86 electoral votes. Trump isn't leading in a single state that Hillary won. There's a lot that could go wrong with that calculation, one being that we're still politically light years away from the election and another being the unreliability of state wide polling. Plus who knows how the virus will affect turnout. Will Trump voters that are generally dismissive of the threat the virus is to them turn out while big city Biden supporters that are terrified stay home? Or will the older generation, more likely to vote for Trump, stay home because they realize their age makes them at risk? [/quote]

It will be interesting to see. Have we ever had a presidential election during a pandemic? The Spanish Flu was during a non-election year?

There's reason to believe that the opinions won't change much between now and November. Trump's popularity has remained extremely consistent, in the mid 40's for almost his entire presidency no matter what happens. But there is a question about Biden, if he's going to be able to survive the sexual assault charge and still get out the liberal female vote?

He will probably survive. The Democratic propaganda machine is already propping him up and denigrating Reade using the same defenses they criticized Kavanaugh for using. Pretty hypocritical and amusing to read. I know I shouldn't, but I take such pleasure in watching leftist hypocrites further demonstrate their dishonesty and willingness to act exactly as they accuse the Republicans of acting. Just pulls off the masks of moral superiority they try to wear while condescending to the uneducated, dumb conservatives and Republicans. Leftist philosophy is bad for the nation in my opinion, worse than the right wing rhetoric other than the racist crap you hear from extreme righties.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I'm not even sure Reagan could do what he did then with social media around.

Agreed. It's a completely different environment than it was in the 80's. But then again, Reagan did it without the benefit of Fox News and talk radio was in its infancy.

RiverDog wrote:With nothing better to do, I looked at the 2016 electoral map and did a crude calculation based on state polls to see how the vote would break if it were held today. Biden is ahead in 5 states that Trump won in 2016, a flip of 86 electoral votes. Trump isn't leading in a single state that Hillary won. There's a lot that could go wrong with that calculation, one being that we're still politically light years away from the election and another being the unreliability of state wide polling. Plus who knows how the virus will affect turnout. Will Trump voters that are generally dismissive of the threat the virus is to them turn out while big city Biden supporters that are terrified stay home? Or will the older generation, more likely to vote for Trump, stay home because they realize their age makes them at risk?

Aseahawkfan wrote:It will be interesting to see. Have we ever had a presidential election during a pandemic? The Spanish Flu was during a non-election year?

The Spanish Flu occurred in 1918-19. Woodrow Wilson was re-elected POTUS in 1916, Warren Harding was elected in 1920.

RiverDog wrote:There's reason to believe that the opinions won't change much between now and November. Trump's popularity has remained extremely consistent, in the mid 40's for almost his entire presidency no matter what happens. But there is a question about Biden, if he's going to be able to survive the sexual assault charge and still get out the liberal female vote?

Aseahawkfan wrote:He will probably survive. The Democratic propaganda machine is already propping him up and denigrating Reade using the same defenses they criticized Kavanaugh for using. Pretty hypocritical and amusing to read. I know I shouldn't, but I take such pleasure in watching leftist hypocrites further demonstrate their dishonesty and willingness to act exactly as they accuse the Republicans of acting. Just pulls off the masks of moral superiority they try to wear while condescending to the uneducated, dumb conservatives and Republicans. Leftist philosophy is bad for the nation in my opinion, worse than the right wing rhetoric other than the racist crap you hear from extreme righties.

Agreed about the hypocrisy of the left in wailing about Kavanaugh's 37 year old sexual harassment charge when he was a teenager vs. Biden's 27 year old sexual assault charge when he was in his 40's. At least I can look myself in the mirror as I thought the Kavanaugh charges were BS, too. IMO they both occurred so long ago that it's impossible to determine the truth, and the benefit of the doubt has to go to the accused.

RiverDog wrote:Agreed about the hypocrisy of the left in wailing about Kavanaugh's 37 year old sexual harassment charge when he was a teenager vs. Biden's 27 year old sexual assault charge when he was in his 40's. At least I can look myself in the mirror as I thought the Kavanaugh charges were BS, too. IMO they both occurred so long ago that it's impossible to determine the truth, and the benefit of the doubt has to go to the accused.

I know we don't agree on it, but nothing I heard that Kavanaugh did should have ruined the man's career 37 years later imo. He was some High School/College kid drunk and acting stupid. It always seems women want equality until they don't. Well, men do stupid things when drunk, so do women. I don't get how you can hammer the man for it while just shrugging about the women. If some woman flashes her chest while drunk at some party or concert, I bet they wouldn't have ruined their career 37 years later. Or if some drunken woman kissed and groped some guy when she was 17 or 18 it wouldn't have ruined her career 37 years alter. That kind metoo# movement crap was just politicized horsecrap.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I know we don't agree on it, but nothing I heard that Kavanaugh did should have ruined the man's career 37 years later imo. He was some High School/College kid drunk and acting stupid. It always seems women want equality until they don't. Well, men do stupid things when drunk, so do women. I don't get how you can hammer the man for it while just shrugging about the women. If some woman flashes her chest while drunk at some party or concert, I bet they wouldn't have ruined their career 37 years later. Or if some drunkenly kissed and groped some guy when she was 17 or 18 it wouldn't have ruined her career 37 years alter. That kind metoo# movement crap was just politicized horsecrap.

Who said that we didn't agree on it? You must be confusing me with someone else. I said from the get go that the accusations alone were not near enough to cause Kavanaugh a problem. Even if what Blaséy-Ford said was true, it still wouldn't have been sufficient enough to disqualify him given how long ago it occurred. It's not like he raped her.

The #Metoo movement really over reached on Kavanaugh just like they did with Tom Brokaw. It gets to be a feeding frenzy, like McCarthy and the red scare in the 50's. They find a couple of legitimate cases of abuse, ie Weinstein, Cosby, the gymnastics guy, and it's like they throw a dragnet out looking for cases to hang their hats on. The Ford-Blasey accusations should have never seen the light of day in a hearing room.

RiverDog wrote:Who said that we didn't agree on it? You must be confusing me with someone else. I said from the get go that the accusations alone were not near enough to cause Kavanaugh a problem. Even if what Blaséy-Ford said was true, it still wouldn't have been sufficient enough to disqualify him given how long ago it occurred. It's not like he raped her.

The #Metoo movement really over reached on Kavanaugh just like they did with Tom Brokaw. It gets to be a feeding frenzy, like McCarthy and the red scare in the 50's. They find a couple of legitimate cases of abuse, ie Weinstein, Cosby, the gymnastics guy, and it's like they throw a dragnet out looking for cases to hang their hats on. The Ford-Blasey accusations should have never seen the light of day in a hearing room.

Sorry. I wasn't sure. I hear so many people reacting to Kavanugh was accused of like he was involved in some movie level rape case. It was ridiculous.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Sorry. I wasn't sure. I hear so many people reacting to Kavanugh was accused of like he was involved in some movie level rape case. It was ridiculous.

No biggie. I guess you weren't an active participant in the debate we had in here during the hearings.

RiverDog wrote:No biggie. I guess you weren't an active participant in the debate we had in here during the hearings.

I was here, but everyone was being super careful on here and some were buying anything against Kavanaugh because he was a Trump nominee. I read the case and was surprised it did see the light of day. Completely desperation by the Dems to derail a man's career who did not deserve what was done to him.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I was here, but everyone was being super careful on here and some were buying anything against Kavanaugh because he was a Trump nominee. I read the case and was surprised it did see the light of day. Completely desperation by the Dems to derail a man's career who did not deserve what was done to him.

I was prepared to vote for a Democrat for the Senate until the hearings. Diane Feinstein withheld information on a witness from the chairman of the judiciary committee, claiming she was doing so to protect the privacy of the witness, then her own staff leaked it to the press. It was nothing less than a kangaroo court. Susan Collins gave perhaps the most well reasoned explanation of her vote for confirmation and is likely going to lose her Senate seat over it.

The Senate needs to come to some sort of agreement regarding what kind of information is fair game for confirmation hearings. If they come across information like what arose in the Kavanaugh nomination, they need to have the FBI investigate it before they allow testimony. This isn't the first time this has happened. Both the Thomas and Bork nominations were marred by similar testimony.

Specialty's just went out of business after 33 years due to lock down orders. A stylist also out of business by where I work. This is just going to get worse. These lock down orders were not thought out well at all. California looking to cut payroll by 10%, 54 billion dollar shortfall, and cutting staff as well, going to cause more demand side downturn which will lead to supply side problems and bankruptcies. And this is just the start of the economic pain coming.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Specialty's just went out of business after 33 years due to lock down orders. A stylist also out of business by where I work. This is just going to get worse. These lock down orders were not thought out well at all. California looking to cut payroll by 10%, 54 billion dollar shortfall, and cutting staff as well, going to cause more demand side downturn which will lead to supply side problems and bankruptcies. And this is just the start of the economic pain coming.

I don't think it's going to get a lot worse. There are some things that they shut down that they can only keep shut down for a matter of months. I have a friend that's a dental hygienist and has been out of work for two months. How long can people go before they need to have their teeth cleaned?

Agreed about the lock downs not being well thought out, but it's not like they've had a lot of experience in this kind of thing.

Once they come up with a vaccine, which I truly believe will occur by no later than the 2nd quarter of 2021, the economy will get back on it's feet rather quickly. But it's going to take until well into 2022 before it rebounds to where it was before the crisis. There's going to be a lot of unemployed that won't have jobs to go back to and will have to find a new career, so you're right, we do have a lot of economic pain to endure. Hopefully this 2nd wave of infections won't cause another major shut down.

RiverDog wrote:I don't think it's going to get a lot worse. There are some things that they shut down that they can only keep shut down for a matter of months. I have a friend that's a dental hygienist and has been out of work for two months. How long can people go before they need to have their teeth cleaned?

Agreed about the lock downs not being well thought out, but it's not like they've had a lot of experience in this kind of thing.

Once they come up with a vaccine, which I truly believe will occur by no later than the 2nd quarter of 2021, the economy will get back on it's feet rather quickly. But it's going to take until well into 2022 before it rebounds to where it was before the crisis. There's going to be a lot of unemployed that won't have jobs to go back to and will have to find a new career, so you're right, we do have a lot of economic pain to endure. Hopefully this 2nd wave of infections won't cause another major shut down.

We will see. This lock down seems to have triggered some demand and supply shocks that won't be easy to fix. People like you and me are real smart with our money. I could live three or four years without a job and cover my bills. I can work a crap job and cover everything. I've always kept my overhead low and stacked savings. But most Americans and even small businesses don't have much cash to carry them through. Specialties was one of Seattle's best known local businesses. They were all over Seattle. They are bye, bye. Some businesses with low overhead may be able to ramp up again, but small businesses in cities with huge taxes, rent fees,and the need for lots of people moving through the city are likely going bye bye for maybe good. Companies like Amazon and Facebook are letting their workers work from home even after the stay at home orders are lifted. If more businesses move to this model, cities will be empty still. No one to buy all that coffee, baked goods, and the like. Cities won't have parking revenue. No taxes from sales and businesses there. A lot of cities will be severely and possibly permanently damaged.

This is going to be really bad across the board. I wish I could list everything happening right now, but I can't because it's too much. Cities, counties, states, and the like are all absolutely hammered while at the same time having unemployment claims to pay out at an unreal level.

This is looking absolutely terrible. Big Tech is not helping because they're thriving in this environment, so they're ok watching the rest of the world burn while they rack up money and benefit from this situation. They have plans to work from home until September or October. They occupy a lot of jobs and fuel to the local economy in a lot of areas.

Hundreds of hospitals are furloughing workers. Restaurants are going bankrupt. Retailers going bankrupt. The economic destruction from this lock down is going to be massive and not easily fixed. People didn't have enough money to sustain with this level of loss of business as well as the job losses.

2022 may be too soon for a come back. We're going to get a huge shock in the second quarter. Then a very choppy, uncertain recovery with lots of terrible things rippling through the economy on nearly all levels public and private.

I have the feeling we're going to have a lot of people out of jobs, poor, and double digit unemployment for a few years or more, then we'll get hit with more coronavirus flairs up with people with no insurance due to job losses causing even bigger problems.

Then we have a bunch of scientists with jobs talking about rolling lock downs of 30 days open, 50 days lock down to reduce coronavirus flair ups. It's always been astounding to me that smart people can fail to see the problem with their idea because they seem to be ignoring what two months of lock down did to the economy much less rolling lock downs. It took two months to put us at a Great Depression level of economic damage, the fastest to that level in our history. They want to do rolling lock downs. We cannot do that.

I know if I were president I would straight up tell our people, "We're going to have more death, but we're not locking down again. This was a total failure and has caused economic destruction in two months that we can't undo in 2 years or more at a Great Depression level. We absolutely cannot continue lock downs or we will destroy the modern world and create a rich and poor class like America has never seen before. Our choice right now is a functioning economy that will take at least two years to recover after only a few months of lock down or a 3rd world nation of people hiding in their homes unable to work and live praying the government money printing won''t stop. I do not believe we have any choice but to choose the latter and live again even if we have people whose lives will be lost doing so. We are at war with this virus. Fear is going to drive us to destroy our world. We cannot let that happen. We must learn to function while this virus is spreading."

Even social security and medicare will be absolutely hammered and looking to be cut because of the unemployment level. We cannot sustain these lock downs. If these governors can't see that, then they are as stupid as Trump.

Aseahawkfan wrote:We will see. This lock down seems to have triggered some demand and supply shocks that won't be easy to fix. People like you and me are real smart with our money. I could live three or four years without a job and cover my bills. I can work a crap job and cover everything. I've always kept my overhead low and stacked savings. But most Americans and even small businesses don't have much cash to carry them through. Specialties was one of Seattle's best known local businesses. They were all over Seattle. They are bye, bye. Some businesses with low overhead may be able to ramp up again, but small businesses in cities with huge taxes, rent fees,and the need for lots of people moving through the city are likely going bye bye for maybe good. Companies like Amazon and Facebook are letting their workers work from home even after the stay at home orders are lifted. If more businesses move to this model, cities will be empty still. No one to buy all that coffee, baked goods, and the like. Cities won't have parking revenue. No taxes from sales and businesses there. A lot of cities will be severely and possibly permanently damaged.

This is going to be really bad across the board. I wish I could list everything happening right now, but I can't because it's too much. Cities, counties, states, and the like are all absolutely hammered while at the same time having unemployment claims to pay out at an unreal level.

This is looking absolutely terrible. Big Tech is not helping because they're thriving in this environment, so they're ok watching the rest of the world burn while they rack up money and benefit from this situation. They have plans to work from home until September or October. They occupy a lot of jobs and fuel to the local economy in a lot of areas.

Hundreds of hospitals are furloughing workers. Restaurants are going bankrupt. Retailers going bankrupt. The economic destruction from this lock down is going to be massive and not easily fixed. People didn't have enough money to sustain with this level of loss of business as well as the job losses.

2022 may be too soon for a come back. We're going to get a huge shock in the second quarter. Then a very choppy, uncertain recovery with lots of terrible things rippling through the economy on nearly all levels public and private.

I have the feeling we're going to have a lot of people out of jobs, poor, and double digit unemployment for a few years or more, then we'll get hit with more coronavirus flairs up with people with no insurance due to job losses causing even bigger problems.

Then we have a bunch of scientists with jobs talking about rolling lock downs of 30 days open, 50 days lock down to reduce coronavirus flair ups. It's always been astounding to me that smart people can fail to see the problem with their idea because they seem to be ignoring what two months of lock down did to the economy much less rolling lock downs. It took two months to put us at a Great Depression level of economic damage, the fastest to that level in our history. They want to do rolling lock downs. We cannot do that.

I know if I were president I would straight up tell our people, "We're going to have more death, but we're not locking down again. This was a total failure and has caused economic destruction in two months that we can't undo in 2 years or more at a Great Depression level. We absolutely cannot continue lock downs or we will destroy the modern world and create a rich and poor class like America has never seen before. Our choice right now is a functioning economy that will take at least two years to recover after only a few months of lock down or a 3rd world nation of people hiding in their homes unable to work and live praying the government money printing won''t stop. I do not believe we have any choice but to choose the latter and live again even if we have people whose lives will be lost doing so. We are at war with this virus. Fear is going to drive us to destroy our world. We cannot let that happen. We must learn to function while this virus is spreading."

Even social security and medicare will be absolutely hammered and looking to be cut because of the unemployment level. We cannot sustain these lock downs. If these governors can't see that, then they are as stupid as Trump.

Yea, the virus is something we're going to have to learn to live with. It's what the experts refer to as the "new normal." The hospitality industry, travel, recreation, etc, are all going to take a good two years to recover. Hopefully we're smart about it and not reckless, but there are some people, mostly the Deplorables, that will continue to refuse to take it seriously.

The bad thing economically is that those that are hardest hit are the ones with the least marketable job skills....resteraunts workers, hotel staff, etc. Those people are going to have to find new careers. And I agree, the crisis is going to hit the government hard. So much for the liberal agenda of free college, the Green New Deal, repatriations, etc. Government will have to cut services, not expand them.

The Dems were really pressing their advantage by proposing their 2nd coronavirus bill. I agree with Trump and the R's, that it's too early to start talking about another huge expenditure. I'm not against getting help to those that need it, but we can't afford another shotgun approach and send everyone $1200. Hopefully when Biden gets elected he'll keep those folks under control as I do think that the R's will lose control of the Senate.

RiverDog wrote:Yea, the virus is something we're going to have to learn to live with. It's what the experts refer to as the "new normal." The hospitality industry, travel, recreation, etc, are all going to take a good two years to recover. Hopefully we're smart about it and not reckless, but there are some people, mostly the Deplorables, that will continue to refuse to take it seriously.

The bad thing economically is that those that are hardest hit are the ones with the least marketable job skills....resteraunts workers, hotel staff, etc. Those people are going to have to find new careers. And I agree, the crisis is going to hit the government hard. So much for the liberal agenda of free college, the Green New Deal, repatriations, etc. Government will have to cut services, not expand them.

The Dems were really pressing their advantage by proposing their 2nd coronavirus bill. I agree with Trump and the R's, that it's too early to start talking about another huge expenditure. I'm not against getting help to those that need it, but we can't afford another shotgun approach and send everyone $1200. Hopefully when Biden gets elected he'll keep those folks under control as I do think that the R's will lose control of the Senate.

The fact that I got a check when I'm working and making very good money is a sign of how stupid, unfocused, and poorly thought out the government's stimulus was. My check was reduced, but I shouldn't have even gotten a check. One of my workers is telling me his friends are sitting on unemployment making more money than him because of the $600 supplemental unemployment they are receiving in addition to the base unemployment. He is telling me you can voluntarily quit claiming fear of the coronavirus and get this unemployment. I'm sitting there thinking, "What are these idiots doing with this unfocused, expensive, and idiotic stimulus? Can they really not execute a focused, effective, and well-thought out stimulus package?" And this is another example of what you talk about, the lazy nature of Trump. Just throw out some stimulus and forget about it.

Even I with a two year degree and self-study in economics would have made a better plan. I would have focused on supplementing state unemployment reserves in a way that didn't encourage people to quit jobs they have. No general stimulus check would have been sent out to people with jobs. I would have outlined an economic delay plan that would have delayed without repayment of certain things like rents, car payments, and the like for those unable to operate. Not deferment, just an outright delay across the board from people that can't pay meaning it will not have to be paid back along with a rent tax deduction for lost rents for landlords affected and the like. A two month reduction in property taxes and a variety of other tax and fee relief until the economy resumes. It would have been like those two months for some people didn't even happen. An economic delay is what was needed, not a massive, unsustainable, unfocused stimulus.

And I would have had a nationally coordinated pandemic plan, not a state by state situation while I argue with governors.

If the Dems take the Senate and control all three houses, man, they will likely mess this up badly. Things were good under Clinton because he was a leftist Democrat with a strong Republican Congress. Kept things in line. I hope if Biden wins, the Republicans can hold the Senate or we're screwed as far as taxes and such goes, gun rights, and a variety of other leftist doctrines that will cause more headaches than good. Dems taking all three branches of government right now might cause more unrest than good as the loser "Deplorables" might lose their fricking minds.

Aseahawkfan wrote:The fact that I got a check when I'm working and making very good money is a sign of how stupid, unfocused, and poorly thought out the government's stimulus was. My check was reduced, but I shouldn't have even gotten a check. One of my workers is telling me his friends are sitting on unemployment making more money than him because of the $600 supplemental unemployment they are receiving in addition to the base unemployment. He is telling me you can voluntarily quit claiming fear of the coronavirus and get this unemployment. I'm sitting there thinking, "What are these idiots doing with this unfocused, expensive, and idiotic stimulus? Can they really not execute a focused, effective, and well-thought out stimulus package?" And this is another example of what you talk about, the lazy nature of Trump. Just throw out some stimulus and forget about it.

Even I with a two year degree and self-study in economics would have made a better plan. I would have focused on supplementing state unemployment reserves in a way that didn't encourage people to quit jobs they have. No general stimulus check would have been sent out to people with jobs. I would have outlined an economic delay plan that would have delayed without repayment of certain things like rents, car payments, and the like for those unable to operate. Not deferment, just an outright delay across the board from people that can't pay meaning it will not have to be paid back along with a rent tax deduction for lost rents for landlords affected and the like. A two month reduction in property taxes and a variety of other tax and fee relief until the economy resumes. It would have been like those two months for some people didn't even happen. An economic delay is what was needed, not a massive, unsustainable, unfocused stimulus.

And I would have had a nationally coordinated pandemic plan, not a state by state situation while I argue with governors.

If the Dems take the Senate and control all three houses, man, they will likely mess this up badly. Things were good under Clinton because he was a leftist Democrat with a strong Republican Congress. Kept things in line. I hope if Biden wins, the Republicans can hold the Senate or we're screwed as far as taxes and such goes, gun rights, and a variety of other leftist doctrines that will cause more headaches than good. Dems taking all three branches of government right now might cause more unrest than good as the loser "Deplorables" might lose their fricking minds.

The problem was that Congress didn't have time to craft the perfect bill. They had to do something in order to get immediate help to people and businesses in need and to help get the financial markets back on their feet. Time was of the essence, so they had to use the quick and dirty approach. It would have taken many months to negotiate a bill that was targeted to those that need it, so they used a sawed off shotgun rather than a sniper's rifle.

But that crisis is past us, at least for most Americans. As you pointed out, the government has done plenty to keep people from starving or going bankrupt. They've bought themselves at least 3-4 months, perhaps longer. If more aid is needed to some individuals, then they can take their time and do it right this time. They don't need to extend unemployment benefits, at least not now.

RiverDog wrote:The problem was that Congress didn't have time to craft the perfect bill. They had to do something in order to get immediate help to people and businesses in need and to help get the financial markets back on their feet. Time was of the essence, so they had to use the quick and dirty approach. It would have taken many months to negotiate a bill that was targeted to those that need it, so they used a sawed off shotgun rather than a sniper's rifle.

But that crisis is past us, at least for most Americans. As you pointed out, the government has done plenty to keep people from starving or going bankrupt. They've bought themselves at least 3-4 months, perhaps longer. If more aid is needed to some individuals, then they can take their time and do it right this time. They don't need to extend unemployment benefits, at least not now.

Yep. They panicked and messed it up. It's not working as intended because of how terrible the idiotic lock downs were and now the slow re-opening when it is obvious the death rate is much, much lower than originally sold. We have that much data. The only country that did it smart was Sweden. A higher death rate for much less economic damage. Man, I think history will show this to be mother of all f-ups by the politicians.

I calculated our death rate at 93000 compared to Sweden's at population equated 126951. I know it is callous, but I'd trade the economic damage for those 34000 lives even if I was one of them or my family. I think the damage from this economic damage will cost us that many lives or more as the bankruptcies roll in, the reduced medical capacity, the debt damage, suicides, lost property, and the like that is coming down the pipe at us.

The cities are still screwed. My friend said Pyramid Brewery in Seattle is closed for good. Cities are going to decimated with sports closed down and big tech keeping stay at home orders until September and October.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Yep. They panicked and messed it up. It's not working as intended because of how terrible the idiotic lock downs were and now the slow re-opening when it is obvious the death rate is much, much lower than originally sold. We have that much data. The only country that did it smart was Sweden. A higher death rate for much less economic damage. Man, I think history will show this to be mother of all f-ups by the politicians.

I wouldn't necessarily call their reaction "panicked". What ever they did, they had to act quickly. We were too slow as it was. Waiting until some committee hashed out the details of a response when there wasn't very many facts to rely on could have taken weeks. The coronavirus relief bill was much the same. They had to act.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I calculated our death rate at 93000 compared to Sweden's at population equated 126951. I know it is callous, but I'd trade the economic damage for those 34000 lives even if I was one of them or my family. I think the damage from this economic damage will cost us that many lives or more as the bankruptcies roll in, the reduced medical capacity, the debt damage, suicides, lost property, and the like that is coming down the pipe at us.

It's too early to determine which strategy worked and which didn't. Additionally, Sweden is a much different country. Apples and oranges when you compare it with the US or its metro areas with NYC.

As far as trading lives for the economic damage, where do you draw the line? What is your limit? 50K? 100K? 200K? Or is it OK to kick that many to the gutter so long as they were over 80 or have an underlying condition? If a government were to use that philosophy, it would be akin to playing God by deciding who lives and who dies. Besides, there's no guarantee that the economy would rebound. The biggest factor to overcome will be people's fear of the disease. Even once they find a vaccine and get it distributed, it's going to take some time for people to have the confidence they had prior to the outbreak.

Aseahawkfan wrote:The cities are still screwed. My friend said Pyramid Brewery in Seattle is closed for good. Cities are going to decimated with sports closed down and big tech keeping stay at home orders until September and October.

That would suck if Pyramid closed. That was one of my favorite pregame bars, particularly for Mariner games. But at the risk of sounding callous, some businesses are going to have to fall on the sword if society is to fight this disease, and a lot of those types of establishments were risky in the first place as so much of their income is tied to sports teams. If the Mariners moved out of town like the Sonics did, they'd be screwed. They had all their eggs in one basket. Besides, someone will step in to fill the void and re-open that brewery, perhaps as early as next year.

I can also be callous about their employees. If the only job skill you've been able to acquire is waiting on tables or flipping hamburgers, then you, too, have put all your eggs in one basket. Restaurants are the first businesses to suffer in any economic downturn. On the other hand, if you invested in yourself by, for example, and went to a trade school and became an electrician rather than taking the easy money, you'd have a lot more options.

I've intentionally put some sarcasm in those two paragraphs to demonstrate just how difficult some of these decisions that we are debating are. Is it fair for me to render my personal judgement as to those people that I think made bad employment decisions and throw them to the wolves? Did the single mom have a choice of either going to a trade school or waiting on tables?

RiverDog wrote:I wouldn't necessarily call their reaction "panicked". What ever they did, they had to act quickly. We were too slow as it was. Waiting until some committee hashed out the details of a response when there wasn't very many facts to rely on could have taken weeks. The coronavirus relief bill was much the same. They had to act.

It was panicked and not well thought out. My friend lives in Hawaii. They ave locked down as bad or worse than here. They have 17 deaths. That is a mindless panic reaction.

It's too early to determine which strategy worked and which didn't. Additionally, Sweden is a much different country. Apples and oranges when you compare it with the US or its metro areas with NYC.

As far as trading lives for the economic damage, where do you draw the line? What is your limit? 50K? 100K? 200K? Or is it OK to kick that many to the gutter so long as they were over 80 or have an underlying condition? If a government were to use that philosophy, it would be akin to playing God by deciding who lives and who dies. Besides, there's no guarantee that the economy would rebound. The biggest factor to overcome will be people's fear of the disease. Even once they find a vaccine and get it distributed, it's going to take some time for people to have the confidence they had prior to the outbreak.

Where do you draw the line as far as deciding whose business is essential or not? Who has a job or not? Who gets to wait for unemployment and who gets to keep their job and future? Who loses their house because their job is permanently gone and who gets to have something to live for after this is done?

How are we going to deal with the next pandemic when hospitals start going bankrupt and cutting staff because they couldn't afford to keep operational due a loss of revenue from non-COVID procedures and services? How do they prop them up? How much closer to bankruptcy does this take the nation? How may jobs will be lost because the cities, states, and Feds have more tax revenue lost than they can possibly make up even with a robust recovery?

How long can we keep printing money?

They already played god with people's financial lives. How many people are going to retire into this? I wonder if you and all these other folks will be good if they have no choice but substantially cut social security and medicare because of this terrible situation? If we're shutting down to protect a certain portion of the population, are they prepared to take less to help recover? Because we don't have anywhere near the money paying into social security we had prior and we may not for while. If these politicians are being real, they will have no choice but to cut both programs.

The government is playing god right now with people's livelihoods, property, and ability to sustain themselves. If they're going to take on that role, then they need to be able to do it all the way including measuring the economic damage versus the lives saved.

That would suck if Pyramid closed. That was one of my favorite pregame bars, particularly for Mariner games. But at the risk of sounding callous, some businesses are going to have to fall on the sword if society is to fight this disease, and a lot of those types of establishments were risky in the first place as so much of their income is tied to sports teams. If the Mariners moved out of town like the Sonics did, they'd be screwed. They had all their eggs in one basket. Besides, someone will step in to fill the void and re-open that brewery, perhaps as early as next year.

I can also be callous about their employees. If the only job skill you've been able to acquire is waiting on tables or flipping hamburgers, then you, too, have put all your eggs in one basket. Restaurants are the first businesses to suffer in any economic downturn. On the other hand, if you invested in yourself by, for example, and went to a trade school and became an electrician rather than taking the easy money, you'd have a lot more options.

I've intentionally put some sarcasm in those two paragraphs to demonstrate just how difficult some of these decisions that we are debating are. Is it fair for me to render my personal judgement as to those people that I think made bad employment decisions and throw them to the wolves? Did the single mom have a choice of either going to a trade school or waiting on tables?

There will be plenty of callousness to go around. I doubt they will be able to avoid cuts in social security and medicare/medicaid as well as state, local, and federal programs that help people. Companies like Boeing and the like won't be able to sustain their pensions or medical at the same level and will probably have to make cuts. Tons of businesses will be heading for bankruptcy as well as people losing their homes and property. The government is going to be as hammered as businesses.

Now I hope I'm wrong, but I know I have never seen this level of economic damage before. Not in 2000/2001, not in 2008. I haven't even read of this level of economic damage in these 3 months of lock down. It is unprecedented. Even the post-COVID19 limitations are such that I don't see how many of the most affected industries will recover. We have absolutely murdered the small business owner. We have further cemented the power of corporations. I see a very dire world for those retiring now and those graduating college as well as those who will be looking for jobs again in their late 40s and 50s.

We will see in time, but my initial feeling is this will cost more lives than it saved once the economic fallout is tabulated. It will cause a major shift left, while at the same time killing business. This will be looked at as one of the stupidest, most poorly thought out responses in history from the top down during a period of political infighting that cost the nation during one of the times when it needed quality, united leadership the most.

Aseahawkfan wrote:It was panicked and not well thought out. My friend lives in Hawaii. They ave locked down as bad or worse than here. They have 17 deaths. That is a mindless panic reaction.

Agreed abut Hawaii, but that's not a great example. They and Alaska are unique.

RiverDog wrote:As far as trading lives for the economic damage, where do you draw the line? What is your limit? 50K? 100K? 200K? Or is it OK to kick that many to the gutter so long as they were over 80 or have an underlying condition? If a government were to use that philosophy, it would be akin to playing God by deciding who lives and who dies. Besides, there's no guarantee that the economy would rebound. The biggest factor to overcome will be people's fear of the disease. Even once they find a vaccine and get it distributed, it's going to take some time for people to have the confidence they had prior to the outbreak.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Where do you draw the line as far as deciding whose business is essential or not? Who has a job or not? Who gets to wait for unemployment and who gets to keep their job and future? Who loses their house because their job is permanently gone and who gets to have something to live for after this is done?

You don't answer a question with a question. You answer mine and I'll give you a response to yours.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I doubt they will be able to avoid cuts in social security and medicare/medicaid as well as state, local, and federal programs that help people. Companies like Boeing and the like won't be able to sustain their pensions or medical at the same level and will probably have to make cuts. Tons of businesses will be heading for bankruptcy as well as people losing their homes and property. The government is going to be as hammered as businesses.

I've always said that they need to cut the early out in Social Security, make everyone work until 66 before they can start drawing benefits. Same with Medicare. It should match the same age requirement that Social Security does. If you had to wait until 66 to enroll in Medicare, a lot more people, including myself, would have kept working. As far as Boeing goes, they closed out their pension years ago, converted everyone to 401K's. Pensions need to go away and converted into a more individualized, portable instrument like a 401K. Most companies are phasing out their legacy plans anyway. This crisis will only accelerate their inevitable demise.

I doubt that you'll see Medicare take any significant cuts. The Dem's motto is "Medicare for All", and it would be pretty darn hard to talk about expanding the system so younger people can be covered by it while forcing older people on fixed incomes to pay more/receive less.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Now I hope I'm wrong, but I know I have never seen this level of economic damage before. Not in 2000/2001, not in 2008. I haven't even read of this level of economic damage in these 3 months of lock down. It is unprecedented. Even the post-COVID19 limitations are such that I don't see how many of the most affected industries will recover. We have absolutely murdered the small business owner. We have further cemented the power of corporations. I see a very dire world for those retiring now and those graduating college as well as those who will be looking for jobs again in their late 40s and 50s.

All I can say is that there are a whole hell of a lot of very smart people on Wall Street that don't share your pessimism. The economy will recover in time. The only problem would be if they are unable to find a vaccine, something that given the recent news of the progress they've made makes that possibility pretty remote.

RiverDog wrote:You don't answer a question with a question. You answer mine and I'll give you a response to yours.

I already answered your question. That is Sweden's death rate. I'd probably go higher as I believe impoverished people who have lost everything don't have a life to come back to. They are already playing god. So they need to do it all the way including deciding what level of economic damage is going to cost you more in terms of lives destroyed. You are just picking what they play god with. If you were out of a job, looking to lose what you built up over your life, you might be singing a different tune.

That is the rub isn't it? Those with jobs, retired, or with money get to sit back and tell the people losing everything the government did fine because they won't be the ones suffering the earliest consequences of this lock down. They might start to suffer down the line, then we'll see what people think.

I've always said that they need to cut the early out in Social Security, make everyone work until 66 before they can start drawing benefits. Same with Medicare. It should match the same age requirement that Social Security does. If you had to wait until 66 to enroll in Medicare, a lot more people, including myself, would have kept working. As far as Boeing goes, they closed out their pension years ago, converted everyone to 401K's. Pensions need to go away and converted into a more individualized, portable instrument like a 401K. Most companies are phasing out their legacy plans anyway. This crisis will only accelerate their inevitable demise.

I doubt that you'll see Medicare take any significant cuts. The Dem's motto is "Medicare for All", and it would be pretty darn hard to talk about expanding the system so younger people can be covered by it while forcing older people on fixed incomes to pay more/receive less.

Cuts will be done out of necessity.

All I can say is that there are a whole hell of a lot of very smart people on Wall Street that don't share your pessimism. The economy will recover in time. The only problem would be if they are unable to find a vaccine, something that given the recent news of the progress they've made makes that possibility pretty remote.

What are you basing this on? Do you read market news or are you watching Trump's clown Treasury Secretary or The Fed's Jerome Powell? Because a lot of the very smart people I follow like Warren Buffet, Dalio, and many other big investors liquidated tons of positions and are stacking cash waiting for the coming crash and severe economic damage.

The market is like that scene of the party on the Titanic as it headed for the iceberg.

There is not room on this forum to list all the economic damage that is coming. If you are going by the stock market, you are believing in that Titanic party. Right now it is a trader's market and a bunch of really dumb people are driving the stock market up which a lot of other really inexperienced people are buying into as well. I have watched this happen two other times: 2000/2001 and 2008. And this will likely be worse than either of those once it crashes.

Financial highlights for today:
1. 38.6 million people unemployed and rising.
2. IBM laying people off.
3. Facebook announced they are planning to encourage a work from home environment and build some facilities where there employees can meet on occasion, but not work too much.
4. Argentina is defaulting on 65 billion in debt. Just the beginning they say for emerging market defaults worldwide, which will collapse that growth area.
5. China's economy contracted 6.8% for the first time in decades and the don't plan to set a GDP number due to the economic damage.

You're saying a lot of very smart people are disagreeing with the coming numbers? No, that is not true at all unless you are watching Mnuchin and The Fed Chairman doing damage control. Do you think The Fed took unprecedented economic action and the Government did the same because what is coming is going to pass shortly? They just don't want panic. What is coming is going to be the U.S. economy screwed on a level we have never seen before in our lifetimes unless you lived through the Depression.

I could not tell you how long at this point it will take to come back because it completely depends on a working vaccine and people finally telling their governors and government to open the hell back and get rolling again because they are losing too much.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I already answered your question.

No, you didn't answer it. You said that you would accept 34,000 deaths in exchange for an open economy. I asked you what your high number was, at what number is it no longer acceptable. You have 3 choices: 50,000, 100,000, or 200,000.

All I can say is that there are a whole hell of a lot of very smart people on Wall Street that don't share your pessimism. The economy will recover in time. The only problem would be if they are unable to find a vaccine, something that given the recent news of the progress they've made makes that possibility pretty remote.

Aseahawkfan wrote:What are you basing this (that Wall Street has confidence in the economy) on?

Yes, I do read some financial news. I also saw an interview with Fed Chairman Powell and he sure seemed pretty confident. Part of his job is to provide confidence but he had some pretty sound reasoning for his optimism. The country is opening back up so there will be people going back to work. The unemployment rate is at its lowest. People are just now starting to get their stimulus checks so that will pump some cash back into the economy. There's a lot of pent up demand, like for cars and housing, reflecting decisions that people put off when the crisis first hit.

You're starting to sound a lot like Hawktalk and his gloom and doom about Trump being POTUS. The numbers look bad today. If they look this bad in October, then maybe I'll walk out on the window ledge with you.

RiverDog wrote:No, you didn't answer it. You said that you would accept 34,000 deaths in exchange for an open economy. I asked you what your high number was, at what number is it no longer acceptable. You have 3 choices: 50,000, 100,000, or 200,000.

How high? No limit once I re-open. We're going once that happens. I can't really answer that number. All I know for sure is the economic damage I'm seeing in 2.5 months of lock down took us to Depression levels of unemployment and economic damage. To be quite honest with you, it would have to be enormously high for me to sacrifice the economy any longer.

Yes, I do read some financial news. I also saw an interview with Fed Chairman Powell and he sure seemed pretty confident. Part of his job is to provide confidence but he had some pretty sound reasoning for his optimism. The country is opening back up so there will be people going back to work. The unemployment rate is at its lowest. People are just now starting to get their stimulus checks so that will pump some cash back into the economy. There's a lot of pent up demand, like for cars and housing, reflecting decisions that people put off when the crisis first hit.

You're starting to sound a lot like Hawktalk and his gloom and doom about Trump being POTUS. The numbers look bad today. If they look this bad in October, then maybe I'll walk out on the window ledge with you.

You just cited Jerome Powell, as I thought. So follow me here: do you believe actions or words? Powell is telling you things will be fine and we'll get back quickly. So tell me, are the actions Jerome Powell is taking that have literally never been taken before even during the 2000/2001 tech crash and 2008 mortgage crisis caused Recession a sign that he thinks things will be fine? If you thought the economy would roar back quickly and unemployment would drop substantially, would you drop rates to zero and suddenly boost The Fed's balance sheet to 7 trillion dollars? Does that look like the actions of a Fed Chief that believes we're in for a quick turnaround?

All I'm telling you is given the available financial information and after I admitted you to I was clearly wrong to relax about this, we have unprecedented economic damage coming. The economy is not going to recover quickly. Just as you saw global supply chains breaking down around the world, we have global financial ties across the world. We're going to have a global bankruptcy problem on top of everything else. And the limitations that the government is putting on businesses re-opening automatically hamstrings those businesses to lower profits by 50 to 70% based on their models. Is that going to allow them to get back to full employment? We could discuss so much of this terrible information.

The only good news is the government pretty much giving money away like it's candy, even though there isn't a lot productive to do with the cash. And we will recover at some point with or without an effective vaccine because humans will eventually choose a functioning productive world with a lot of death over a shut down, isolated, unproductive world with nothing to live for.

If you want more info, pick a topic. We'll discuss the economic implications coming right now. I can literally give you the financial run down of a lot of different economic areas and why the are going to take a hit, even big tech will be taking a hit other than maybe Amazon, the Walmart of Big Tech.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Powell is telling you things will be fine and we'll get back quickly.

That's not what Powell said and it's not what I'm saying. It could take two years even after they find a vaccine before things get back to normal. All I am saying is that we're in the middle of the worst. We're not going to have 25 million unemployed for very long. It will still be very high, but not anywhere near the 20-25% that we're seeing today.[/quote]

RiverDog wrote:That's not what Powell said and it's not what I'm saying. It could take two years even after they find a vaccine before things get back to normal. All I am saying is that we're in the middle of the worst. We're not going to have 25 million unemployed for very long. It will still be very high, but not anywhere near the 20-25% that we're seeing today.

First, we have 38 million unemployed, not 25. That number is still rising, not shrinking. I'm not sure how they even got a 14.9% unemployment rate when according to last published workforce numbers of 156 million indicate a 24.9 percent unemployment rate. I imagine this is part of the same number manipulation Obama's administration did to make unemployment look better than it us during his time in office.

Not sure about this, but I hope not. I do think we'll sit at double digits for a while, higher than The Great Recession.

The rent and mortgage payment defaults are going to hit the property market very hard. No one seems to realize that there are a ton of businesses and individuals not paying rent or mortgage payments that will show up on the books soon. My friend is one of them who deferred his mortgage for six months. Starbucks doesn't want to pay rent for a while. Then there are all the lost revenues from the bankruptcies like Specialites closing and JC Penney's and Hertz going bankrupt who certainly won't be paying their rent or bills any time soon. Then all the businesses who do the majority of their revenues from the huge sports crowds around the nation. On top of canceled payments from governments and the like.

I guess we'll see what the damage is like and how well we think these governor's did soon enough. All I know for sure is this had better not become the game plan in America in the future or we likely will see a second civil war. I can't see a majority allowing themselves to be locked down losing everything again for a death rate that is less than 1% of the population. Economic damage that destroys 30% of your economy versus a 1% death rate is not a worthwhile trade off no matter how many "noble" people talk about even 1 life lost is too many.

Aseahawkfan wrote:First, we have 38 million unemployed, not 25. That number is still rising, not shrinking.

My bad. I was looking at an article that said that non farm unemployment jumped 20.5M in April.

Aseahawkfan wrote: I'm not sure how they even got a 14.9% unemployment rate when according to last published workforce numbers of 156 million indicate a 24.9 percent unemployment rate. I imagine this is part of the same number manipulation Obama's administration did to make unemployment look better than it us during his time in office.

The unemployment rate has always been a bit of a nefarious number. They only count people that are actively seeking employment. Chronically homeless people, for example, aren't figured into the number. If your unemployment insurance runs out, you're no longer part of the equation. Suffice it to say that the actual number as it currently stands is pretty damn bad.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Not sure about this, but I hope not. I do think we'll sit at double digits for a while, higher than The Great Recession.

I think so, too. Unemployment is a lagging indicator. The numbers for May, which I suspect will be as bad or worse than April, will not come out until the first week of June, and by then, all of the states will have relaxed their restrictions by one degree or another and many will have begun to go back to work. You won't see an improvement in the unemployment percentage until the first week of July, but even still, it's likely to be three times what it was before the crisis struck.

No matter what the governors and/or the POTUS does, you won't see significant economic improvement until a vaccine is developed. It doesn't make any difference what Trump, Cuomo, Inslee, or any other government official says or does. The majority of people are still afraid to go out in the public, buying only food and other necessities, and until they regain their confidence, it's going to put a damper on a large sector of the economy.

But it's not the end of the world. We are not heading for a decade long depression. No one's starving or abandoning their homes for shanty towns or Hoovervilles. You don't see kids selling apples on street corners. There isn't a dust bowl that's sweeping the bread belt. We'll get through it.

RiverDog wrote:I think so, too. Unemployment is a lagging indicator. The numbers for May, which I suspect will be as bad or worse than April, will not come out until the first week of June, and by then, all of the states will have relaxed their restrictions by one degree or another and many will have begun to go back to work. You won't see an improvement in the unemployment percentage until the first week of July, but even still, it's likely to be three times what it was before the crisis struck.

No matter what the governors and/or the POTUS does, you won't see significant economic improvement until a vaccine is developed. It doesn't make any difference what Trump, Cuomo, Inslee, or any other government official says or does. The majority of people are still afraid to go out in the public, buying only food and other necessities, and until they regain their confidence, it's going to put a damper on a large sector of the economy.

But it's not the end of the world. We are not heading for a decade long depression. No one's starving or abandoning their homes for shanty towns or Hoovervilles. You don't see kids selling apples on street corners. There isn't a dust bowl that's sweeping the bread belt. We'll get through it.

We'll get through it as we always do. But I would prefer these political idiots do better than they're doing. Did you see Trump still not wearing a mask? This idiot can't do the right thing even when it helps the country. Man, if the Democrats can't beat this idiot in November, what does it say about them and America? Sheesh.

My friend living in Hawaii is locked down as bad as New York. There are 17 deaths there and around 700 total cases. Does that strike you as a case for a lock down? We have enough information to get going again. These people are moving too slow.

We don't have Hoovervilles any more, but our homeless rate is going to rise. What is the politically correct term for shanty towns now? What is that name for those homeless camps that people are pissed about? Refuge cities? Those big camps that California and Washington have due to their policies that attract and encourage homeless people to come here and camp out. You see them all over King County and even Everett has a few now. Usually filled with homeless drug addicts. You probably don't have those where you live, but you've probably read about them and seen them when you've come over to Seattle. Totally foul camps of people living there in filth by choice so they can keep on doing drugs and not caring. The shelters and homeless programs will probably overloaded.

The mortgage defaults haven't even begun yet, but they're coming. This may be worse than The Great Recession given the terrible job government on all levels is doing to get this thing right. They are literally forcing people to lose everything with their stay at home and essential business orders with no end in site until they decide and planning to use the police and military to enforce it. That is too much power for a group of people acting too slowly when Joe Blow businessman can look at what needs to be done and start taking care of it right now faster than these sad ass politicians from the top down starting with the idiot in Chief who can't coordinate a group of governors to get this job done. Both of these parties are seriously lame. They prefer to attack each other than get this done so that people losing everything can get back to providing for themselves again.

No nation in the world is even within sniffing distance of a 1% mortality rate of population whether or not they locked down not and these clowns are acting like that level of mortality requires them to lock down 30% plus of the economy. Even Sweden who didn't lock down medical system is not overloaded. They've lost roughly 4000 people in a 10 million population. The press is now attacking them for having the highest mortality rate per capita rather than just admitting it's 4000 people and it's not worth destroying the world economy over. Modern people seem incapable of making hard decisions to maintain the world. It's pathetic and infuriating.

Aseahawkfan wrote:We'll get through it as we always do. But I would prefer these political idiots do better than they're doing. Did you see Trump still not wearing a mask? This idiot can't do the right thing even when it helps the country. Man, if the Democrats can't beat this idiot in November, what does it say about them and America? Sheesh.

Trump's behavior in making not wearing a mask some type of defiant political gesture is costing lives and hindering the safe reopening of the economy. His attitude during this crisis shows exactly why I feel he such a poor leader, and the absolute worst person we could have at a time like this. The problem is that the Dems are dysfunctional. Biden is going to end up shooting himself in the foot.

Aseahawkfan wrote:My friend living in Hawaii is locked down as bad as New York. There are 17 deaths there and around 700 total cases. Does that strike you as a case for a lock down? We have enough information to get going again. These people are moving too slow.

There's a lot of things that are non sensical about this shutdown. I haven't been able to get a haircut for 3 months. I see no reason why they can't allow these types of businesses re-open under strict guidelines, such as both customers and employees wearing masks, no more than one person sitting in a waiting room, etc.

Aseahawkfan wrote:We don't have Hoovervilles any more, but our homeless rate is going to rise. What is the politically correct term for shanty towns now? What is that name for those homeless camps that people are pissed about? Refuge cities? Those big camps that California and Washington have due to their policies that attract and encourage homeless people to come here and camp out. You see them all over King County and even Everett has a few now. Usually filled with homeless drug addicts. You probably don't have those where you live, but you've probably read about them and seen them when you've come over to Seattle. Totally foul camps of people living there in filth by choice so they can keep on doing drugs and not caring. The shelters and homeless programs will probably overloaded.

We have homeless where I live, although obviously not nearly in the same numbers as there are on the west side. So long as the shutdown doesn't last real long, we won't see an increase in chronic homelessness. No one has been put out of their homes because of an involuntary act. It takes time to evict a person for non payment of rent, and many places have passed legislation temporarily prohibiting evictions. You normally see an increase in homeless activity when the weather gets warm anyway, and there may be some that have moved out of their apartments temporarily to economize while they're out of work.

Aseahawkfan wrote:No nation in the world is even within sniffing distance of a 1% mortality rate of population whether or not they locked down not and these clowns are acting like that level of mortality requires them to lock down 30% plus of the economy. Even Sweden who didn't lock down medical system is not overloaded. They've lost roughly 4000 people in a 10 million population. The press is now attacking them for having the highest mortality rate per capita rather than just admitting it's 4000 people and it's not worth destroying the world economy over. Modern people seem incapable of making hard decisions to maintain the world. It's pathetic and infuriating.

Apples and oranges comparing us to Sweden. They naturally socially distance anyway. How many interstate freeways in Sweden stretch from north to south and east to west? How many metro areas with mass transit do you see in Sweden? How many spring break beaches do they have in Sweden?