Aseahawkfan wrote:A good VP pick wasn't for a bump, but the negative effect of a bad VP pick would have impacted him greatly. Kamala was a smart, safe pick.
Precisely.
Aseahawkfan wrote:And I do believe in the quiet Trump vote. It's become too much of a danger to speak openly of supporting Trump. The left hates him and attacks anyone that supports him publically. I have seen almost anyone that publically supports Trump vilified and attacked by the left. None of these people are changing their minds, they're just shutting up and waiting to cast their rage votes at the left. The left has literally forced Trump supporters and conservatives into hiding or to areas where they can be safe, but they haven't changed their minds at all.
That's certainly possible and is a phenomena that pollsters worry about, particularly if the polling is done face to face. A lot of people will tell an interviewer what they think they want to hear. But most polling is done via the phone and anonymously, so it doesn't happen as often. There's also a factor known as response bias, where certain voters are more likely than others to answer a phone call and take the time to give their opinion. I fit into that category as I never take unsolicited phone calls. But good pollsters can identify that bias and put a percentage to it so they can account for it in their results.
Aseahawkfan wrote:This thing is just getting started as far as the campaigning and mudslinging. Biden just picked his VP. You act like the campaigning won't change anything. It most assuredly will. DNC just finished and your touting these polls like the next 3 months won't change anything. Ridiculous. Any polls now will not tell you who will win in November.
First off, the election is a few weeks less than 3 months away. More like 75 days. Additionally, with increased vote by mail this cycle, people will be making their decisions earlier than they have in the past, which further shrinks the window Trump has to narrow the gap. In 2016, Trump was still a virtual unknown, and as a challenger that had no political track record, he was free to make promises and proposals, saying anything he thought that would appeal to voters, like
"we're going to build a wall and Mexico is going to pay for it!", or
"drain the swamp!" He was able to use that rhetoric to narrow the gap between him and HRC. That's not going to fly this time around. He's going to be playing a lot of defense and not nearly as much offense.
Additionally, if you look at Trump's job approval ratings, they've remained remarkedly consistent, more so than any POTUS since they started doing the surveys, never dropping below 40% yet never going above 50%. That's another indication that good, bad, or indifferent and no matter what kind of news breaks, people's opinions are set in stone.
And lastly, the coronavirus pandemic is going to affect both campaigns. No more huge, chanting crowds, or at least not as many or as big as we're used to, and less of an opportunity to build the momentum needed to turn things around. Another reason why I think that this election will be less dynamic than in the past.
Anyhow, that's my rationale. I'm not asking you to join me in my opinion, just understand how I've come to my conclusion. It's more than just wishful thinking.
Aseahawkfan wrote:So we'll revisit this polling come Mid October. See where this is at. That will at least be more accurate. And we'll have seen the debates and see if any more craziness happens like secret tapes. I'm still waiting for the Dems to release the racial slur tape of Trump. That will be a real killer for him with swing voters. I know the Dems gotta be sitting on that waiting for just the right time. We'll see if the Republicans are sitting on any bombshells about Biden to release the last few weeks before the election.
I'm not even sure who the police unions usually go for, but I'm betting a lot of police and pro-police people will be casting their votes for Trump without giving Biden a second thought. The left hasn't given them much of a choice in that matter. No one is buying Biden doesn't support defunding the police when so many cities and Democrats obviously support it.
Then there is Kanye West. That will be interesting if he even pulls a small percentage of the Americans of African descent vote from Biden.
Crazy time is just getting started and you're making it seem like November is a few weeks away.
If something unknown happens, like the release of some previously unknown phone conversation as you have indicated happens, then all bets are off. That's been part of my argument: That unless something new happens to change the paradigm, we're looking at a Biden win.
FYI the NY police union has already come out in support of Trump and I would expect others to do the same. That's not a surprise. HRC didn't even seek their support in 2016, the first candidate in recent memory to do so. Besides, this year, the support of police unions could be a double edged sword.
Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:21 pm