Chinese spy satellite

[c_hawkbob]

Seeing a lot of angst ove why we didn't shoot it down sooner, IMO of course they waited till it got over the Atlantic to shoot it down. China ain't getting any intel from that thing they don't already have from satellites. It's just sabre rattling akin to Jong Il's missile launches, no need to kill ourselves over it.

[Aseahawkfan]

China said it is a weather balloon. I have no idea what it is. I don't care. I'm sure the Republicans are making a huge deal of it to attack Biden like they do everything he does. Character or politically assassinate the person you're against and try to claim credit for everything is the political playbook.

[Hawktawk]

Creepy times. This thing flew over norad sites , ICBM silos . I’m more concerned with the Russian spy ship Off Hawaii and the Russian missile ship armed with zircon hypersonic missiles that travel 6750 mph and are nuclear capable that is sitting in range of the continental US.

Harrowing

[RiverDog]

Seeing a lot of angst ove why we didn't shoot it down sooner, IMO of course they waited till it got over the Atlantic to shoot it down. China ain't getting any intel from that thing they don't already have from satellites. It's just sabre rattling akin to Jong Il's missile launches, no need to kill ourselves over it.

That's not completely true. In addition to flying lower than a satellite, balloons can linger over a target much longer than a satellite, which is traveling about 17,000 mph in low Earth orbit, or much further away, at 22k miles if it's in a geosynchronous orbit. Indeed, our military took action to try to conceal certain things that were in its path as it traveled over the continental US, so obviously there was something there to be gained. But I do agree that there's likely not a lot more, that it wasn't worth the effort and the diplomatic PR that they've suffered.

I also don't accept that the Chinese were simply saber rattling. The balloon wasn't a threat to the military or the civilian population, so who is it that they're trying to scare? If their goal is to provoke a military confrontation, there's better ways to do it. Indeed, they currently have a similar spy balloon over South America. Are they rattling their sabers at the Columbians and/or Brazilians?

I agree that it's a big over reaction. MTG showed everyone what a moron she is by telling ordinary citizens to shoot it down, a truly laughable proposition that brought ridicule even from many conservatives, some suggesting that she get her hands on the Jewish space laser she claims was used to start California wildfires. But the whole incident doesn't make a lot of sense to me. It's almost if someone left a pasture gate open and a bunch of hot air balloons got loose.

[Aseahawkfan]

Who is voting for that insane woman MTG? How did she get into and stay in office? Sheesh.

[RiverDog]

Who is voting for that insane woman MTG? How did she get into and stay in office? Sheesh.

Yeah, no kidding. But then again, you live in a city that keeps putting that insane woman Kshama Sawant on the city council.

I honestly don't know what the motivation is for the Chinese to start floating balloons into the western hemisphere. If it's to embarrass Biden, they achieved their goal, but why did they send one to South America?

[Aseahawkfan]

Yeah, no kidding. But then again, you live in a city that keeps putting that insane woman Kshama Sawant on the city council.

I honestly don't know what the motivation is for the Chinese to start floating balloons into the western hemisphere. If it's to embarrass Biden, they achieved their goal, but why did they send one to South America?

I don't know. See if we're stupid enough to let a balloon with spy tech get deep into the country? Or a test run for something else?

Let's face it. The majority of the world doesn't like the way the United States runs for a variety of reasons. Even our own people complain because most have never lived anywhere else including myself. I would say probably every powerful government not run like the United States wants to see us fall so they dominate including many of our so called allies. Men like Putin and Xi like the strong man leader examples of their nations like Stalin and Mao and we stand in the way of them. So they're doing everything they can to mess with us, make us look weak, and try to push us towards a fall. People are waiting with baited breath for the American model of Constitutional Republic Capitalist society to fall. Even our own people are crying against capitalism while they benefit immensely from it and yet have no real understanding of it other than the capitalists 'make as much money as possible and the people at the top are greedy."

So they're taking little shots along with Russia and Saudi Arabia and Iran and so on and so on. Internally, we have forces obviously laying the seeds for revolution here which we got a taste of on January 6th. I always wonder how long a nation can maintain when the people don't have any appreciation for or understanding of that nation and the body politic no longer cares about following the ideals of the nation and are similarly engaged in a divide and conquer path of control.

Our citizens probably have the least understanding of their own nation in history and their duty as citizens to rule the nation in an intelligent manner. We have very few controls in place to force people to learn how to govern before allowing them to vote because they are in essence governing when they vote. I know very few people, especially younger folk, who grasp this reality.

When I see this, it looks like the cracks a group of foreign powers would need to shatter us politically and economically. Who knows, maybe Trump and the Russian and Chinese interference during that election was the most successful attempt to truly rip apart America internally. Maybe more are coming. We'll see how we stand against it. We're still the top dog with technology and such, but not sure how long that will maintain when we're voting for clowns like MTG and Santos and Sawant and The Squad and people that are either so crazy that no one will follow them or so down on the country and desirous of destroying every aspect of American culture that is positive to push their narrative that they are willing to sacrifice the country which I believe people like AOC and her squad are willing to do. They have zero love of this nation from what I have heard from them.

If I were in China and Russia and the Middle Eastern Leaders and I looked at America right now, I'd see an opportunity to knock them over. Divided culturally, politically, and economically and electronically addicted to phones and computers. Physically lazy from living attached to those devices. Why let the spoiled children who have experienced no hardship remain on top?

[RiverDog]

I honestly don't know what the motivation is for the Chinese to start floating balloons into the western hemisphere. If it's to embarrass Biden, they achieved their goal, but why did they send one to South America?

I don't know. See if we're stupid enough to let a balloon with spy tech get deep into the country? Or a test run for something else?

Although I don't believe their cover story for a second, ie that it was a weather balloon the was blown off course, I think that it's possible that there was some sort of mistake committed that they don't want to admit to. Once those things get up in the air, you can't exactly turn them around and bring them back. They're going to float with the prevailing winds, which is going to follow the rotation of the Earth.

I still haven't heard anyone give a reasonable explanation as to why they sent one over South America. That's what's really weird about this situation.

It's not the first time that a hostile nation sent a hot air balloon across the Pacific. The Japanese sent hot air balloons loaded with incendiaries during WW2, their intent to set the western forests on fire. One of them actually crash landed in western Oregon.

[NorthHawk]

There are reports that 3 of them flew across the country during Trump’s Presidency.

If it was just a weather balloon, why didn’t China announce that it went rogue? Why the secrecy?
The Chinese play the long game and it’s probably a probe to see how this regime reacts and how it’s dealt with.
But it could serve as a bit of intelligence information as to how it communicated and maybe the encryption methods
along with identifying what targets they are interested in. They might have had aircraft following it and gathering
data bursts or discovering how to jam communications.

[Hawktawk]

Russia and China are firmly in cahoots at this point after China seemed to be resistant to the war initially .
It’s a real problem .
Just a couple of weeks ago they participated in joint exercises to simulate an attack on a submarine . 70% of our deterrent is in 14 subs ? around the world .

Both countries have hypersonic weapons in the theatre which the west does not . Chinas premier called the USA the greatest nuclear threat on the planet . This is about as dangerous a situation as we have ever faced right now . Nothing China’s doing is separate from Russia’s interests .

Yeah I know paranoid Ht. Hoping it all blows over .

[RiverDog]

There are reports that 3 of them flew across the country during Trump’s Presidency.

Which I find rather odd. I don't necessarily think that our military is lying to us, but if it's true, then why wasn't it brought to light when it happened? Did they tell Trump about it? If Trump knew, he probably would have claimed that it was being used to spread covid. I could see him being quiet about it if it were the Russians, but not the Chinese. Did they tell the Secretary of Defense? The joint chiefs? Where did the information stop?

If it was just a weather balloon, why didn’t China announce that it went rogue? Why the secrecy? The Chinese play the long game and it’s probably a probe to see how this regime reacts and how it’s dealt with. But it could serve as a bit of intelligence information as to how it communicated and maybe the encryption methods along with identifying what targets they are interested in. They might have had aircraft following it and gathering data bursts or discovering how to jam communications.

The obvious answer to your question is that it wasn't a weather balloon.

The debris they collect should help answer some of the questions about it, but there'll still be more questions than answers. If there is sensitive equipment on board, why would they risk it by putting it in a balloon and sending it over our territory? If we identified it as a surveillance balloon and they had been routinely sending them over American airspace, why wasn't it shot down when it first entered American airspace over the Aleutians? And as I keep asking, WTF are the Chinese doing sending one over Latin America? They might as well send one over Antartica for all the good it will do them. Are they testing the regimes of a bunch of banana republics like Costa Rica and Columbia?

Nothing on either side of the Pacific adds up about this incident.

[NorthHawk]

The Chinese are testing western reactions and seeing how much they can get away with is the probable answer combined with some additional intelligence as everything they find adds or confirms their data.
Following it and collecting data (what they are looking at and their communications methods) is said to be the probable cause of not shooting it down early.
What I don't understand is if this is a real intelligence object and the various agencies know it, with all of the vast expanse of open fields, why didn't they shoot it down over land where they could pick up the pieces easier?
Some of the farmland has very few buildings on it so the chance of damage would be small. Now they have to try to fish the pieces out of the ocean where contact with sea water may very well have damaged any components
or access to data on electronic equipment.

[RiverDog]

The Chinese are testing western reactions and seeing how much they can get away with is the probable answer combined with some additional intelligence as everything they find adds or confirms their data.
Following it and collecting data (what they are looking at and their communications methods) is said to be the probable cause of not shooting it down early.
What I don't understand is if this is a real intelligence object and the various agencies know it, with all of the vast expanse of open fields, why didn't they shoot it down over land where they could pick up the pieces easier?
Some of the farmland has very few buildings on it so the chance of damage would be small. Now they have to try to fish the pieces out of the ocean where contact with sea water may very well have damaged any components
or access to data on electronic equipment.

Yeah, there's a lot of things on this side of the Pacific that don't make sense, that being one of them. The odds of the debris causing danger to any people on the ground if they shot it down over Idaho, Montana, or Wyoming are less than they are of getting struck by lightning. Did the military actually recommend to Biden that he wait until it flew all the way to the Carolina coast before they shot it down, or is he making that up to counter criticism for not shooting it down earlier? I'd like to think not, but I'm beginning to wonder.

And now, there's a whole host of credible individuals in the Trump Administration that are flat out saying that the alleged 3 Chinese spy balloons that supposedly overflew the US between 2017 and 2020 didn't happen:

Robert O'Brien, the national security adviser from 2019 to 2021, said, "I unequivocally can tell you I was not made aware of any flights over U.S. territory, nor was my staff, including those who were at the National Security Council all four years of the Trump administration." Then, John Bolton, O'Brien's predecessor, told Fox News, "I don't know of any balloon flights by any power over the United States during my tenure, and I'd never heard of any of that occurring before I joined in 2018. I haven't heard of anything that occurred after I left, either. I can say with 100% certainty, not during my tenure."

Other top officials said the same thing. Former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe said it did not happen. So did former acting DNI Richard Grenell. So did former CIA Director and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. So did former Defense Secretary Mark Esper. And former acting Defense Secretary Chris Miller. And former vice presidential national security adviser Keith Kellogg. And Trump himself.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... 3c74a1efb1

It's very believable that Trump would lie about it, but what about all those other guys? Are they lying, too?

I can't believe Biden on this. What I suspect is that he was told about it early on and ordered the Air Force NOT to shoot it down for fear of provoking the Chinese or disrupting the meeting the SOS was schedule to have and only did so after he saw what a political firestorm it had created. And I'm beginning to think that this story about 3 previous surveillance balloons during the Trump Administration is a concocted story to take pressure off of Biden. I haven't seen or heard anything that would cause me believe otherwise.

[NorthHawk]

It's quite possible that story is a distraction, but I also wouldn't unequivocally believe any Trump supporter where his actions or inactions are under scrutiny.
Why would Trump not do anything? He wants to curry favor with every strongman leader and his own ego might have suggested that it's only a balloon and they can get the data from satellites, not fully understanding
the ramifications of the spying. But who really knows? It might very well be a planted story to distract from the current administration.

[RiverDog]

It's quite possible that story is a distraction, but I also wouldn't unequivocally believe any Trump supporter where his actions or inactions are under scrutiny.
Why would Trump not do anything? He wants to curry favor with every strongman leader and his own ego might have suggested that it's only a balloon and they can get the data from satellites, not fully understanding
the ramifications of the spying. But who really knows? It might very well be a planted story to distract from the current administration.

So you don't believe ANY Trump supporter? Does that extend to anyone that voted for him?

I'm waiting to hear of ANYONE outside of the Biden Administration say that they were aware of the 3 overflights. I want to know who they told and where the buck stopped and wasn't passed up the chain of command. Who sat on it?

[NorthHawk]

Trump loyalist no. Trump supporter, maybe.
Most of the people you mentioned I suspect were MAGA Republicans and I wouldn't trust them regarding their views about Trump at all.
After his political future is gone then things will become clearer, but right now he's still the front runner for the GOP so all players are falling in line to preserve their chance to get rehired.

[mykc14]

What a bizarre story. The more you hear the weirder it becomes. It makes no sense to wait for a spy balloon to complete it's course over the whole country before shooting it down- none what so ever, especially because there would have been ample opportunities where you could take it down safely. What message would that send to every other nation? Pretty stupid excuse. It also doesn't make much sense that Trump would know of three spy balloons flying across the country during his presidency. He hated China and would have used it as an opportunity to prove they were spying on us- way too good of a fearmongering opportunity for him to pass up. Bizarre.

[RiverDog]

Trump loyalist no. Trump supporter, maybe.
Most of the people you mentioned I suspect were MAGA Republicans and I wouldn't trust them regarding their views about Trump at all.
After his political future is gone then things will become clearer, but right now he's still the front runner for the GOP so all players are falling in line to preserve their chance to get rehired.

John Bolton is one of those that you're accusing of being a "MAGA Republican", and he's considering running against Trump in 2024. Here's what he said about Trump earlier last month:

“If I don’t see that (potential R candidates denounce Trump), I’m going to seriously consider getting in,” Bolton said at the time, later adding: “I think to be a presidential candidate you can’t just say, ‘I support the Constitution.’ You have to say, ‘I would oppose people who would undercut it.’”

On Friday, Bolton told the British broadcaster that he specifically wants to derail Trump, who has called his onetime subordinate a “liar,” a “dope” and “a disgruntled boring fool.”

“I think Trump’s support within the party itself is in terminal decline,” Bolton said of the backlash against the former commander-in-chief.

https://nypost.com/2023/01/06/john-bolt ... oss-trump/

So why would someone that just a few weeks ago called Trump a "liar", "dope", and "disgruntled boring fool" lie for him?

Another person amongst those that you claim are MAGA Republicans is former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, and here's what he said about Trump following the 2020 election after which Trump fired him:

After Trump lost the 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden, Trump launched a months-long effort to subvert the election outcome and remain in power, falsely claiming that the election had been "stolen" from him.[89] In his subsequent memoir, published in 2022, Esper wrote that Trump's effort "was a national embarrassment that undermined our democracy, our credibility, and our leadership on the world stage."

I could go down the list and cite other examples, but I don't see the point if you're going to mistrust anyone simply because they once served in the Trump Administration.

[NorthHawk]

What a bizarre story. The more you hear the weirder it becomes. It makes no sense to wait for a spy balloon to complete it's course over the whole country before shooting it down- none what so ever, especially because there would have been ample opportunities where you could take it down safely. What message would that send to every other nation? Pretty stupid excuse. It also doesn't make much sense that Trump would know of three spy balloons flying across the country during his presidency. He hated China and would have used it as an opportunity to prove they were spying on us- way too good of a fearmongering opportunity for him to pass up. Bizarre.

As I said and I was first exposed to it was a former Intelligence Officer who suggested the military was capturing data on what info was being sent back to China and how they were doing it.
It was a chance to observe a spying device in action.
Trump cosied up to Zhi and although his public face was hating China, we don't know what conversations went on behind closed doors. Trump was/is susceptible to being manipulated by powerful leaders and early in
his Presidency he liked China. I have no idea when these other 3 balloons were said to have crossed the country, but if it was early in Trumps reign then it's possible he wouldn't want to harm what he thought was
a budding relationship, like he thought he had with Kim in NK.

[RiverDog]

As I said and I was first exposed to it was a former Intelligence Officer who suggested the military was capturing data on what info was being sent back to China and how they were doing it.
It was a chance to observe a spying device in action.
Trump cosied up to Zhi and although his public face was hating China, we don't know what conversations went on behind closed doors. Trump was/is susceptible to being manipulated by powerful leaders and early in
his Presidency he liked China. I have no idea when these other 3 balloons were said to have crossed the country, but if it was early in Trumps reign then it's possible he wouldn't want to harm what he thought was
a budding relationship, like he thought he had with Kim in NK.

That also doesn't jive with what Biden claims as he said that he wanted to shoot it down but that the reason he was given by the military was that it would put US citizens at risk do to the falling debris. Besides, if there were 3 other balloons a few years earlier as is the story, wouldn't they have already collected that kind of information? I'm not buying that excuse at all.

[NorthHawk]

So why would someone that just a few weeks ago called Trump a "liar", "dope", and "disgruntled boring fool" lie for him?

I could go down the list and cite other examples, but I don't see the point if you're going to mistrust anyone simply because they once served in the Trump Administration.

I would trust Bolton more than other MAGA republicans because he's out of that orbit and was never fully in it. Lots of others are not and I don't see how anyone could be naive to the idea that people who owe their careers
to Trump wouldn't be going with the program even if it meant lying through their teeth. Just look at the MAGA Republicans in Congress. Would you trust any of them with the truth that might hurt Trump?
I would be suspicious of any claim they made regarding DT and his tenure in office by those who have headed down that rabbit hole.

[NorthHawk]

That also doesn't jive with what Biden claims as he said that he wanted to shoot it down but that the reason he was given by the military was that it would put US citizens at risk do to the falling debris. Besides, if there were 3 other balloons a few years earlier as is the story, wouldn't they have already collected that kind of information? I'm not buying that excuse at all.

Do you think that spying agencies across the world continue to use the same techniques for decades?
With technology advancing rapidly, gathering intel would either confirm it was the same, or if it was different and how it was different.
The gathering process could take a week or more and it might take months to figure out what it means. The more data you have, the better your intelligence.

[RiverDog]

That also doesn't jive with what Biden claims as he said that he wanted to shoot it down but that the reason he was given by the military was that it would put US citizens at risk do to the falling debris. Besides, if there were 3 other balloons a few years earlier as is the story, wouldn't they have already collected that kind of information? I'm not buying that excuse at all.

Do you think that spying agencies across the world continue to use the same techniques for decades?
With technology advancing rapidly, gathering intel would either confirm it was the same, or if it was different and how it was different.
The gathering process could take a week or more and it might take months to figure out what it means. The more data you have, the better your intelligence.

We're not talking about decades; we're talking about a couple of years. In addition, it was a matter of weeks that the balloon was in the air and over US airspace, overflew a missile site in Montana after which there were multiple places to bring it down as they eventually did. How long does it take to collect the necessary information? Besides, like I said, it doesn't jive with what Biden himself said the reason was for not taking it down immediately. There was no mention by anyone in the Administration of gathering counterintelligence.

You're running out of excuses and starting to exaggerate by stretching 5-6 years into "decades". I've already shown you that at least two of the guys you claim are blind Trump loyalists are anything but, and now you're latching onto one person's opinion as if it's the gospel truth. You seem to have your mind made up.

I'm not saying that I know what happened or that I believe this or that version. All I'm saying is that none of this adds up, either Biden's story or what it was that motivated the Chinese to embark on this endeavor. I've never seen an international incident like this, with neither side offering a credible version of the events.

[c_hawkbob]

There is no reason, other than partisanship, not to believe that Biden gave the order to take the balloon down as soon as it was safe to do so when he was first briefed on it.

As far as the three incursions during the Trump era my understanding is that these we described as "briefly entering" our airspace. Drawing an equivalency of those to a balloon that got away from them and wandered across the continental US is just more partisanship, albeit from the other side.

It seems to me China has probably made a habit of pushing their limit with these things just as they do with Naval War Games in the Taiwan Strait and this one lost it's navigability for some reason and went for a wander.

It's actually fortunate for us that we were able to gather so much intel on it electronically and now from it's recovered debris.

[RiverDog]

There is no reason, other than partisanship, not to believe that Biden gave the order to take the balloon down as soon as it was safe to do so when he was first briefed on it.

It overflew hundreds of square miles of uninhabited areas in Idaho and Montana before it overflew the missile silos, and for weeks they knew it was heading in that direction. It's not clear to me why it was so unsafe to take that thing down much earlier rather that have the military scramble to make sure that it didn't observe any sensitive information. What was their risk assessment? How large of a debris field did they assume? It's a very curious recommendation.

As far as Biden and the White House's credibility goes, that's been pretty well damaged In recent months as they've been less than forthcoming in the classified documents scandal. I have every reason to believe that Biden would be reluctant to share the actual details of his decision making in this matter to protect his image or that he was afraid that it would disrupt his SOS's visit to the PRC. In any event, I don't think we're being told the full story.

As far as the three incursions during the Trump era my understanding is that these we described as "briefly entering" our airspace. Drawing an equivalency of those to a balloon that got away from them and wandered across the continental US is just more partisanship, albeit from the other side.

All I want to know is where the flow of information stopped. Why wasn't the national security advisor told of them? Or the secretary of defense? They both hate Trump, and I have a hard time believing that those two, along with multiple other officials, were aware and are now lying about not being told. If some low-level military officer thought it was too minor of an incident to forward up the chain of command, then I want to hear someone say so. I would think that any breach of our airspace by a hostile nation would be significant enough that the President's national security advisor and the secretary of defense should have known about it. Don't you?

It seems to me China has probably made a habit of pushing their limit with these things just as they do with Naval War Games in the Taiwan Strait and this one lost it's navigability for some reason and went for a wander.

It's actually fortunate for us that we were able to gather so much intel on it electronically and now from it's recovered debris.

I agree, but it doesn't explain why they'd send one towards Latin America. What were they hoping to achieve with that one?

[c_hawkbob]

I don't care why they send one south of us, but I'm not arrogant enough to suppose that the only intel they care about gathering is in the US. They probably got 'em all over and now that it's 'a thing' we'll start hearing a lot more about 'em.

[RiverDog]

I don't care why they send one south of us, but I'm not arrogant enough to suppose that the only intel they care about gathering is in the US. They probably got 'em all over and now that it's 'a thing' we'll start hearing a lot more about 'em.

The answer to why they sent one south might tell us why they are sending them over the US. Is there any chance at all that our assessment that it's a surveillance craft is inaccurate and their claim that it's a research vessel is true? Do they have weather instruments that could be mistaken for military surveillance equipment? Or is there something going on in Latin America that we might want to know about, too? Or are they so incompetent that they arbitrarily send expensive equipment out in such a haphazard manner not having the foggiest idea where it'll end up?

In any event, the balloons being sent into the western hemisphere are all relevant to the one that we shot down last week.

[c_hawkbob]

I'd say Balloons are on the less expensive end of the surveillance device scale.

[RiverDog]

I'd say Balloons are on the less expensive end of the surveillance device scale.

As far as a platform, almost certainly, at least on a per pound basis vs. satellites. But they are very large, the equivalent of 3 buses and can carry 1,000 pounds of equipment. If that equipment is sophisticated enough to where our military was concerned about them gleaning sensitive information from 60,000' you'd think that the total package would be fairly expensive.

That's something we might find out if they can recover enough of the debris.

[Aseahawkfan]

The answer to why they sent one south might tell us why they are sending them over the US. Is there any chance at all that our assessment that it's a surveillance craft is inaccurate and their claim that it's a research vessel is true? Do they have weather instruments that could be mistaken for military surveillance equipment? Or is there something going on in Latin America that we might want to know about, too? Or are they so incompetent that they arbitrarily send expensive equipment out in such a haphazard manner not having the foggiest idea where it'll end up?

In any event, the balloons being sent into the western hemisphere are all relevant to the one that we shot down last week.

China has been trying to build ties with Latin America for a while.

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-influence-latin-america-argentina-brazil-venezuela-security-energy-bri

They want to shift the global game board in their direction by being the big country providing aid with less political interference than they would receive from America. They can open new markets for Chinese goods and create more reliance on China for security and military support.

With America moving in the direction it is with Trump isolationist and the left pushing cultural changes much of the world doesn't want any part of, why not push yourself as an alternative?

China has always been much more patient and intelligent than Russia. They will keep expanding their influence economically to set themselves up to be the big dog.

[RiverDog]

The answer to why they sent one south might tell us why they are sending them over the US. Is there any chance at all that our assessment that it's a surveillance craft is inaccurate and their claim that it's a research vessel is true? Do they have weather instruments that could be mistaken for military surveillance equipment? Or is there something going on in Latin America that we might want to know about, too? Or are they so incompetent that they arbitrarily send expensive equipment out in such a haphazard manner not having the foggiest idea where it'll end up?

In any event, the balloons being sent into the western hemisphere are all relevant to the one that we shot down last week.

China has been trying to build ties with Latin America for a while.

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-influence-latin-america-argentina-brazil-venezuela-security-energy-bri

They want to shift the global game board in their direction by being the big country providing aid with less political interference than they would receive from America. They can open new markets for Chinese goods and create more reliance on China for security and military support.

With America moving in the direction it is with Trump isolationist and the left pushing cultural changes much of the world doesn't want any part of, why not push yourself as an alternative?

China has always been much more patient and intelligent than Russia. They will keep expanding their influence economically to set themselves up to be the big dog.

So why send a spy balloon over there?

[RiverDog]

I'm not sure if I buy all of this or not, but here's at least an explanation from a military official about why they couldn't have brought the spy balloon down over Idaho and Montana:

The Chinese balloon that lofted across America last week was some 200 feet tall and carried at its base a set of equipment the size of a regional commercial jet that weighed “a couple of thousand pounds” and would have posed a risk to citizens if it had been downed over land, VanHerck said. It might have also contained self-destructive explosives, he noted.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... 6afb4a87cf

So if the balloon had self-destruct explosives on board, which did not turn out to be the case, and that they were worried about causing harm to people on the ground, why wouldn't they bring it down in a remote, sparsely populated region in Idaho or Montana rather than risking it coming down on its own over a populated city? Were they able to confidently predict that it would make it another 3,000 or so miles to the Atlantic coast, and was the chances of that prediction being wrong less than the chance of hurting someone in Idaho or Montana by shooting it down?

He also confirmed the existence of 4 previous spy balloons, 3 under Trump and one under Biden, and that they were only made known to them as reconnaissance missions after the fact once analysts had been able to assess them. But it still doesn't explain why that assessment wasn't forwarded up the chain of command, or if it was, who decided that it need not go up any further. Violations of US airspace by a hostile power would seem to be incidents that should be forwarded to the highest levels of our government, and apparently that either didn't happen or multiple people are lying about not being informed.

This story is still very baffling. Nothing makes any sense.

[NorthHawk]

We're not talking about decades; we're talking about a couple of years. In addition, it was a matter of weeks that the balloon was in the air and over US airspace, overflew a missile site in Montana after which there were multiple places to bring it down as they eventually did. How long does it take to collect the necessary information? Besides, like I said, it doesn't jive with what Biden himself said the reason was for not taking it down immediately. There was no mention by anyone in the Administration of gathering counterintelligence.

Where did you get decades?
Do you think that communications only change in decades? They are continually changing, so if they got some data a month ago it could be in a very different format today. I also heard a comment that the military might have been
trying to jam the signals which is a form of intelligence gathering as it tells them how they are communicating. When collecting data in communications, the more you have, the better the chance of finding out what's really going on
because you never know when that key piece will be discovered.

[mykc14]

I'm not sure if I buy all of this or not, but here's at least an explanation from a military official about why they couldn't have brought the spy balloon down over Idaho and Montana:

Yeah, I don't buy most of this either. Like you said, plenty of remote areas to take this thing down. It really makes no sense to let a spying device complete it's mission before you destroy it. On multiple levels it is a threat to us. By not doing something about this you are letting the whole world know they can easily spy on us and we will allow it. Imagine if a country- or a random terrorist organization- decided that they did want to drop a large scale nuclear bomb on us. We've basically let them know that we will allow it to go wherever it wants and we won't do anything about it. We have to have a better response to situations like this.

[RiverDog]

We're not talking about decades; we're talking about a couple of years. In addition, it was a matter of weeks that the balloon was in the air and over US airspace, overflew a missile site in Montana after which there were multiple places to bring it down as they eventually did. How long does it take to collect the necessary information? Besides, like I said, it doesn't jive with what Biden himself said the reason was for not taking it down immediately. There was no mention by anyone in the Administration of gathering counterintelligence.

Where did you get decades?

From the first sentence in your previous post: Do you think that spying agencies across the world continue to use the same techniques for decades? We're not talking decades, we're talking a couple of years. There was a spy balloon that we tracked during the Biden Administration, which just turned two years old. You're exaggerating in order to emphasize your point. Besides, it shouldn't take more than a few days at the most to glean whatever useful information can be gained by monitoring it. It doesn't justify letting it fly for weeks over our air space.

[RiverDog]

I'm not sure if I buy all of this or not, but here's at least an explanation from a military official about why they couldn't have brought the spy balloon down over Idaho and Montana:

Yeah, I don't buy most of this either. Like you said, plenty of remote areas to take this thing down. It really makes no sense to let a spying device complete it's mission before you destroy it. On multiple levels it is a threat to us. By not doing something about this you are letting the whole world know they can easily spy on us and we will allow it. Imagine if a country- or a random terrorist organization- decided that they did want to drop a large scale nuclear bomb on us. We've basically let them know that we will allow it to go wherever it wants and we won't do anything about it. We have to have a better response to situations like this.

I saw where that thing was the size of a regional jet airliner and weighed around 2,000 lbs. Once it loses its lift, an object that massive is going to drop like a rock, so it shouldn't be too difficult to forecast where it would land. I'd sure like to see what it was that made it so damn risky that they didn't want to bring it down in a wheat field in Montana or Wyoming. After all they're red states, so why should Biden give a rip about them?

Having heard the military speak out, I don't doubt that Biden got that recommendation. But it's still very curious advice. Did Biden challenge their assessment and ask relevant questions like "suppose it comes down on its own over a city?" or did he just say "OK, sounds good!"? He's not obligated to take their advice and it appears to me that they gave him a convenient excuse for him not to act.

To be fair, I don't think it's a good comparison to equate the biggest nation on the planet with a terrorist group. There are a lot of diplomatic and military concerns about creating an international incident involving the PRC that doesn't exist with a terrorist group. But I do agree that we have a major issue with our homeland air defense. If its true that they can't reliably take down an object like that without subjecting citizens to undue risk, then they'd better get cracking and figure out how we're going to deal with future incidents like this one.

I wonder if the same thing were to happen next week if Biden would act any differently than he did on this event.

[Aseahawkfan]

So why send a spy balloon over there?

Assist the local governments in gathering intelligence, provide them with support. Same as we do all the time with allied governments screwing their own people. We have given tons of intelligence and military assistance to nations looking to screw their people under the guise of alliance. Why would China be any different?

Or could be looking for American assets in Central and South America.

There are are variety of reasons why they might do it. They are trying to curry favor with governments in that area and helping them with more advanced intel they can't afford is one way to help.

I'd have to first see what kind of tech is in these balloons. Maybe they are doing a test run to start selling these balloons to nations looking for cheap security intel gathering. Made in China label on them.

[RiverDog]

So why send a spy balloon over there?

Assist the local governments in gathering intelligence, provide them with support. Same as we do all the time with allied governments screwing their own people. We have given tons of intelligence and military assistance to nations looking to screw their people under the guise of alliance. Why would China be any different?

Or could be looking for American assets in Central and South America.

There are are variety of reasons why they might do it. They are trying to curry favor with governments in that area and helping them with more advanced intel they can't afford is one way to help.

So they're going to secretly launch a spy balloon not knowing exactly where it's going to end up, fly it across the Pacific at 60,000' and over the sovereign territory of an ally in order to show their support? That doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

I'd have to first see what kind of tech is in these balloons. Maybe they are doing a test run to start selling these balloons to nations looking for cheap security intel gathering. Made in China label on them.

I agree that seeing exactly what's in the package might give us a clue as to what they're up to, but I doubt that it's a sales technique. But I'll be the first to admit that I haven't the foggiest idea what they're up to.

[NorthHawk]

It's part of the total reconnaissance picture. A small part, but every piece of the puzzle adds something. It was also able to stay in an area as long as they wanted it to to collect data, unlike spy satellites which just pass over.
What I didn't know was the balloon was about the size of 3 city buses. That's a huge size so it makes a bit more sense about the concern with shooting it down over land. One person said it would have a debris field almost
like that of a 737.

[NorthHawk]

From the first sentence in your previous post: Do you think that spying agencies across the world continue to use the same techniques for decades?

That's a rhetorical in the negative statement. Like saying to someone - Do you think I'm stupid?
The fact is they could send over a number of balloons and all have different means of communication/encryption, with some of them with new methods. The military wouldn't know
unless they captured the comm data or tried various methods of jamming.