Poll Watching

[RiverDog]

As we're all aware, President Trump is way behind in the polls. A new Florida poll released today has him trailing Joe Biden 51-38, a whopping 13 points. The same poll taken back in April had him trailing Biden by just 4%. Being that he has been trailing significantly in PA, MI, and WI, states he narrowly won in 2016, Florida, with its 29 electoral votes, is a must win. If he loses Florida, he must win both MI and PA.

One of the signs of trouble for Trump is that Biden is regularly getting over 50% in many of the polls. The current RCP average of all polls has Biden leading, 49.6 to 40.9 for Trump. That means that Trump can't simply win over the undecided voters, he's going to have to change the minds of people saying that they are voting for Biden.

The other problem for Trump is that in 2016, he was an unknown challenger that didn't have to worry about defending his past 4 years. One can easily lob bombs, tell people what he's going to do. It's not unlike Jimmy Carter's 1976 campaign when he hung a economic term called the "Misery Index" (interest rate + unemployment + inflation) onto incumbent President Gerald Ford, then four years later, have that same term come back to haunt him in the 1980 election.

There have been plenty of candidates that have blown large leads only to lose in November: Dewey to Truman in 1948, Nixon nearly blew a huge lead to Hubert Humphrey in '68, Bush 43 had a large lead over Al Gore in 2000, and of course, and Hillary blew a big lead in 2016.

President Trump's job approval numbers have remained amazingly constant throughout his 3+ year's in office. His high water mark was 47.0%, rock bottom at 37.0. This is a very unique phenomenon. For example, his predecessor, Barak Obama, had a job approval high of 65%, a low of 40%. Once people have an opinion about Donald Trump, not much can happen that changes it. This tendency makes it that more difficult for Trump to pull a rabbit out of the hat, turn voter's heads, and make up for a double digit deficit, especially when he's at the point where he has to covert voters that say they're voting for Biden.

And lastly, the biggest problem that Trump has is that in what will undoubtedly be the biggest campaign issue, an overwhelming majority of Americans disapprove of his response to the coronavirus, and there's virtually no chance that we'll have a deployable vaccine available before November. The crisis that Trump has wished, or rather predicted, would just go away, almost certainly will still be with us when votes are cast.

So...I'm going out on a limb. I'm predicting that Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump by 376 to 162 votes in the electoral college and by 7% in the popular vote. Of the states Trump won in 2016, Biden will win WI, MI, PA, FL, TX, AZ, and OH. Trump will not win any states he lost in 2016. Of course, this does not take into account faithless electors.

Let's bookmark the page.

[Aseahawkfan]

I want to see his VP candidate first. If you want to make an early prediction, it won't hurt any.

My feeling is people are very scared of this racially fired up movement. They are also very scared of defund the police. As well as very scared of the virus. And likely very tired of Dumb as Dirt spouting off. And tired of the lock down.

This will all come to a head come election time. I want to see how well Biden's VP candidate navigates the BLM and defund the police movement. Right now the focus is on the corona and Biden hasn't picked up a VP candidate. And a lot of people are picking in the polls based on Trump's crappy handling of the virus. And the strong economy doesn't exist any more and won't for some time regardless of who wins.

So his only remaining option to attack Biden will be the BLM and defund the police movement. If Biden picks a VP candidate who can't navigate that issue without stepping in the muck, he'll have problems. If the protests are still going strong or have gotten worse, it might hurt Biden. I know even a lot of folk of African descent I've noticed are lukewarm to Biden at best and he keeps saying stupid crap like "Trump is the first racist president" being the most recent. He needs a strong VP candidate to steady the nerves and make people confident that the gaffe prone Biden will be backed up by a competent person who can smooth the rough edges.

I predict the main areas of attack for Trump:
1. BLM and defund the police to scare the moderate white and female voter.

2. Attack Biden's competency jumping on every gaffe and claiming he won't have the mental acuity to manage the presidency.

3. If he picks a woman of African descent, she will have to manage the attacks from Trump that she will fully support the defund the police movement and BLM protesters further destroying and disrupting America. And will attack white people joining with The Squad to bring down America.

Basically, a bunch of fear-mongering like he usually does. That VP candidate needs to know how to walk that line and inspire confidence to act as a counter to the gaffe machine and the visible mental deficiencies of Biden. I've watched some Biden commercials and talking. Boy, he looks old. Trump looks like your crazy old Uncle with a lot of energy. But Biden looks like your infirmed granddad on the way to his coffin. Even his voice sounds very weak. I almost feel bad for the man putting himeself on the line like this just to do battle with the insanity that is Trump. I hope he can manage it. I bet Biden did not want to step back into the presidency at his age. I hope the Dem Party helps him pick a viable VP candidate that can handle a heavy load because Biden is making Reagan in his second term seem well.

[RiverDog]

Unless there's a local/regional candidate on the ticket, like LBJ was to Texas in 1960, the VP isn't going to influence a large enough number of voters to make a difference. That is unless he makes a really bad choice, it's not going to make a huge difference. The only one of the most mentioned candidates that would be an outrageously bad and would be a campaign distraction is Elizabeth Warren. Either that or someone not many know about that they haven't done a good job of vetting that has some skeleton jump out of their closet.

The riots and the BLM movement certainly is a campaign issue now, but 3 months is a long time for them to remain active as they have been over the past 50 days or so. The top over riding issue is obviously going to be the coronavirus response. Trump may have done some positive things recently to stop the bleeding his popularity has suffered by advocating the wearing of masks, canceling the Jacksonville part of the R convention, and admitting that the crisis is going to get worse before it gets better. But he's likely a day late and a dollar short. IMO the voter's perception of his performance during the coronavirus is unlikely to change.

I have seen articles where the Trump campaign is designing an October surprise by declaring that a successful vaccine has been found and that they're starting to produce and distribute it w/o FDA approval, something that nearly every health expert say would be a bad move as there's no way that they'll have that kind of assurance on any vaccine before the election. But it would allow Trump the opportunity to declare victory over the pandemic.

I'm sure that Trump will try to hang every liberal angle on Biden that he can, which is why it's important for him NOT to pick Sen. Warren as a running mate, and yes, Biden has to watch his mouth. He nearly stepped in it again last week by calling Trump the "only" racist POTUS in our history, a pretty ignorant comment. But as my dad used to say, people that live in glass houses shouldn't throw rocks. Biden can easily counter any gaffe he makes with a litany of remarks made by Trump over the past 4 years, and a large majority of people already feel that Trump is more mentally compromised than Biden is.

So we'll see. Yes, it is a little early to be laying money on a horse race that hasn't even stated. But this year is different. Based on Trump's very consistent job approval numbers and that Biden is a known quantity, I don't think Trump can do much to actually flip voters, and the percentage of undecided voters is too low for him to make up enough ground to win in the battleground states. The only thing I could see big enough to actually flip voters would be if something completely unexpected happens, like a war with China or some scandalous behavior about Biden comes to light.

[Aseahawkfan]

But does Trump seem weak to you like Biden or just crazy? Which do you prefer: crazy with lots of energy or someone that doesn't appear capable of staying awake and lucid enough to do the job? Biden's voice does not even sound as strong as the Biden of 5 years ago. Which will appeal more to the moderate voter?

I feel Biden needs a stronger VP candidate than usual. One that will give off the enthusiastic energy that inspires confidence since Biden himself seems to lack that. Someone that will eat Pence alive and want to go toe to toe with Trump and dance circles around him when speaking.

[RiverDog]

But does Trump seem weak to you like Biden or just crazy? Which do you prefer: crazy with lots of energy or someone that doesn't appear capable of staying awake and lucid enough to do the job? Biden's voice does not even sound as strong as the Biden of 5 years ago. Which will appeal more to the moderate voter?

I can only speak for myself, but in my mind, the question of "crazy with lots of energy" or "can't stay awake" isn't relevant. What is relevant is their comparative management styles. Trump doesn't trust anyone but himself, makes decisions by the seat of his pants. Biden is much more likely to solicit a range of opinions and rely on his appointees to do their jobs.

I feel Biden needs a stronger VP candidate than usual. One that will give off the enthusiastic energy that inspires confidence since Biden himself seems to lack that. Someone that will eat Pence alive and want to go toe to toe with Trump and dance circles around him when speaking.

I once asked the first boss I had when I got out of college, while he was under the influence of several adult beverages at a cocktail party, why he hired me when there were a number of other candidates with much better resumes, higher GPA's, etc. His response was "I didn't want to hire someone that's smarter than I am."

The point is that Biden doesn't want to make a VP selection that overshadows him or make him look weak or stupid in comparison. That could happen if he were to select Kamala Harris, who is a very sharp lady with her own ideas that don't always align with Biden's. IMO Biden needs to take someone that's comfortable being in the background and is capable of doing his dirty work on the campaign trail. He has a huge lead and he doesn't want to do anything that would cause it to slip.

We're exactly 100 days from the election and with all the mail-in ballots that will be sent out this year due to the coronavirus, many voters will be making their decisions much earlier than they have in the past. Plus the conventions will be absent all the signs, rousing speeches, standing ovations, and balloon drops, so neither candidate stands to gain much of a bump that they usually get. The status quo favors Biden, so he needs to go into a 4 corner offense and run out the clock.

[Aseahawkfan]

I can only speak for myself, but in my mind, the question of "crazy with lots of energy" or "can't stay awake" isn't relevant. What is relevant is their comparative management styles. Trump doesn't trust anyone but himself, makes decisions by the seat of his pants. Biden is much more likely to solicit a range of opinions and rely on his appointees to do their jobs.

How do moderate voters respond? That is what I wonder. Do they care about management style or do they want to feel confident the president can do the highly difficult job of president? Myself, I don't want to hear from the president. I want to be able to mostly ignore the guy. I don't follow him much. He's supposed to preside, not be a king. That's what I don't like about Trump. But we'll see what the moderate thinks. I know not many people think like I do that vote. Voting for a guy that won't do much is not what many want. They want to vote for a guy they feel is doing things they think should be done whereas I want to vote for a guy who encourages the government to do as little as possible. Getting stuff done requires energy. People may not like what Trump has gotten done, but he's gotten a lot done. He moves and acts. He's got the energy to handle the office and face of with world leaders. Some people like that.

I once asked the first boss I had when I got out of college, while he was under the influence of several adult beverages at a cocktail party, why he hired me when there were a number of other candidates with much better resumes, higher GPA's, etc. His response was "I didn't want to hire someone that's smarter than I am."

The point is that Biden doesn't want to make a VP selection that overshadows him or make him look weak or stupid in comparison. That could happen if he were to select Kamala Harris, who is a very sharp lady with her own ideas that don't always align with Biden's. IMO Biden needs to take someone that's comfortable being in the background and is capable of doing his dirty work on the campaign trail. He has a huge lead and he doesn't want to do anything that would cause it to slip.

We're exactly 100 days from the election and with all the mail-in ballots that will be sent out this year due to the coronavirus, many voters will be making their decisions much earlier than they have in the past. Plus the conventions will be absent all the signs, rousing speeches, standing ovations, and balloon drops, so neither candidate stands to gain much of a bump that they usually get. The status quo favors Biden, so he needs to go into a 4 corner offense and run out the clock.

Was your boss a 78 year old man who looks like he could die during his presidency? Sorry, man, this isn't even the Democratic Party's thinking. I know that for a fact. No intelligent person can look at Biden and really feel confident he might not die in office. That is how weak Biden is when I see him and I would prefer he win just for the peace and quiet. I doubt Americans are looking at Biden and his weak voice and demeanor thinking this guy will last the entire term with his thin voice, gaffes, and 78 year old appearance. He looks like a man close to 80.

Biden isn't about to dictate to the Democratic Party that he doesn't want a VP who will overshadow him. They want that because Biden is likely a one term president there to get rid of Donald Trump, then hand off to someone else. Biden is not a young Obama or Clinton who is looking to hold office for two terms with a lot of charm and youthful energy that inspires the base. Biden is a single term president there to hold the office for four years in an attempt to get rid of an odious President Trump and possibly set up another candidate, maybe the VP candidate they pick right now.

Which is why I once again reiterate that this is the most important VP pick that the Democratic Party has made in modern history. This VP pick is there to bolster Biden's bid when the real election war starts and possibly run the nation if Biden becomes infirmed as a 78 year old man. And this candidate may possibly have to run for president in 2024 when an 82 year old Biden will want to retire and America likely won't be very interested in voting for an octogenarian.

Suffice it to say this is the most important VP candidate in recent memory. They will carry a heavy load this election helping a 78 year old former Democratic VP that will be up against a bully who will do everything he can to attack and fluster his opponent to win. This VP candidate must inspire the nation that they can handle all the unrest and chaos in America because it is a very real possibility that the 78 year old president might not be able to handle everything.

Trump has his flaws, a lack of energy isn't one of them. Trump appears as a younger man this his 73 or 74 years. Biden seems like a 78 year old man. Trump definitely thinks like you posted as he wouldn't want anyone to overshadow him. Biden is not Trump with overflowing charisma and a candidate people love and can get behind. Biden is a desperate prayer by the Democratic Party to beat a man that has clubbed them and humiliated them. They don't want to make any more mistakes when it comes to Trump like picking a weak VP candidate that people feel will fail if the 78 year old for some reason can't handle the job.

[Hawktawk]

Biden looks like an astute energetic patriotic man whose time has come relative to the crazy orange traitor with absolutely not a single leadership bone in his body. He's playing super smart, rope a dope, let trump say more stupid stuff every minute.let trump lose.He declined to be interviewed by Chris Wallace a week after Trump got hammered by him and made to look like an idiot on faux. Smart. Make no unforced errors.Get your facts right before doing something like that.

Look Bidens no ball of fire but he makes perfect sense compared to the idiot. Nobody who currently plans to vote for Biden will ever return to this man. His goose is cooked minus complete chaos. Hes not running against Hillary, there are no missing Emails and as RD says so succinctly he's not an outsider with no record to defend anymore. I rejected him 4 years ago based on what i knew of his record but most of the Trump voters are shallow and stupid and dont do their homework.

I agree the defund the police movement and non stop protests/riots are a factor and black leaders need to understand if they want another 4 years of Trump and his jack booted thugs in masks keep on doing this stuff non stop. We all get the point.Now clean up your mess and do something about it.

VP choice is critical but again Biden is being very smart playing coy and dragging this out because this is the most important VP pick in history IMO and an ideological firebrand would also tighten the polls some. The less time he leaves trump to try to pigeonhole his pick the better, although "sleepy Joe" has zero traction. I think the polls reflect that most people are tired of a 74 year old 5th grader calling names and acting juvenile as americans die and our economy tanks due in large part to trumps inept administration and none more inept than himself.

Trump has not cracked 50% in any average of polls in 100 days short of a complete term, unprecedented in modern times. He's not popular. It will take foreign interference from Russia on an unheard of scale to reinstall their puppet.I won't count it out with Bob Barr and this corrupt administration.They have done nothing to stop it and Trumps freak out about mail in voting tells me they may have something in the can. 99% Trump loses even if they do but Ill believe it when i see it. We will not survive 4 more years of Trump.

[Aseahawkfan]

Biden looks like an astute energetic patriotic man whose time has come relative to the crazy orange traitor with absolutely not a single leadership bone in his body. He's playing super smart, rope a dope, let trump say more stupid stuff every minute.let trump lose.He declined to be interviewed by Chris Wallace a week after Trump got hammered by him and made to look like an idiot on faux. Smart. Make no unforced errors.Get your facts right before doing something like that.

Look Bidens no ball of fire but he makes perfect sense compared to the idiot. Nobody who currently plans to vote for Biden will ever return to this man. His goose is cooked minus complete chaos. Hes not running against Hillary, there are no missing Emails and as RD says so succinctly he's not an outsider with no record to defend anymore. I rejected him 4 years ago based on what i knew of his record but most of the Trump voters are shallow and stupid and dont do their homework.

I agree the defund the police movement and non stop protests/riots are a factor and black leaders need to understand if they want another 4 years of Trump and his jack booted thugs in masks keep on doing this stuff non stop. We all get the point.Now clean up your mess and do something about it.

VP choice is critical but again Biden is being very smart playing coy and dragging this out because this is the most important VP pick in history IMO and an ideological firebrand would also tighten the polls some. The less time he leaves trump to try to pigeonhole his pick the better, although "sleepy Joe" has zero traction. I think the polls reflect that most people are tired of a 74 year old 5th grader calling names and acting juvenile as americans die and our economy tanks due in large part to trumps inept administration and none more inept than himself.

Trump has not cracked 50% in any average of polls in 100 days short of a complete term, unprecedented in modern times. He's not popular. It will take foreign interference from Russia on an unheard of scale to reinstall their puppet.I won't count it out with Bob Barr and this corrupt administration.They have done nothing to stop it and Trumps freak out about mail in voting tells me they may have something in the can. 99% Trump loses even if they do but Ill believe it when i see it. We will not survive 4 more years of Trump.

Hopefully you're right.

But Biden has Hunter Biden, his son, who looks every bit as corrupt as Trump. You can bet money that the closer the election gets the Hunter Biden attacks are coming. As are the attacks on Biden's competence. And much more. You haven't even come close to seeing the hell that will be unleashed on Biden the closer we get to the election.

Just like Republicans haven't seen the hell the Democrats have planned for Trump.

It's going to get real dirty in a few months.

[I-5]

Nice thread. If Hunter Biden is a main attack line, then I don't think there's much there there. We've all heard every angle they have on Hunter, Hunter already sheepishly apologized for making his dad look bad, and moreover, Hunter isn't running. I agree with HT that Biden is smart to tease the VP pick as long as possible - that's a very Trump signature move.

I like Riv's boldness. I was thinking it will be a little tighter than that, but I understand why Riv would see it differently than the last election. Sleepy Joe does not have the kind of haters that Hillary has, and Trump's complete failure as a leader will alienate at least part of the base that voted for him last time, and galvanize lazy dems who didn't vote last time. If Biden wins FL, that's when I'll start feeling confident.

[Aseahawkfan]

I wish I heard more of the former Trump voters hating on him that I know, but they seem unmoved. If anything they hate the Democrats more than they did before. I know you can find web sites of former Trump voters switching sides, but there are also web sites of former Democrats switching to Republican.

I keep wondering who is running these polls. Who is voting in them. If it is a good representation of people who voted for Trump or not. Most of the folks I know feel exactly the same way as they did in the previous election. They hate the Democrats. They don't love Trump, but will only vote Republican. They feel like the Democrats have a bad plan for the nation and a bad message. A few think the Democrats hate America and plan to tear it down with socialism and the like. They really hate the "Defund the police movement" and some feel like they are under attack for being white by the BLM movement. I know one if his famous anti-immigration people like Anne Coulter has turned on him, but I have no idea if that will cause her and whatever weirdos follow her to vote for Biden.

I don't think people do know everything about Hunter BIden. I think the initial attacks were just to seed the waters for attacks during the election. That is when they will intensify just as the Democrats attacks will intensify.

I don't think we've even seen the tip of the iceberg as to what's coming myself. We have about another month before things really ramp up. Biden gotta pick that VP candidate and see how she influences the polls out of the gate. Then his VP is going to have to talk and have her record looked at. Then she has to be able to manage campaigning.

This should get real interesting real soon.

[RiverDog]

Nice thread. If Hunter Biden is a main attack line, then I don't think there's much there there. We've all heard every angle they have on Hunter, Hunter already sheepishly apologized for making his dad look bad, and moreover, Hunter isn't running. I agree with HT that Biden is smart to tease the VP pick as long as possible - that's a very Trump signature move.

I like Riv's boldness. I was thinking it will be a little tighter than that, but I understand why Riv would see it differently than the last election. Sleepy Joe does not have the kind of haters that Hillary has, and Trump's complete failure as a leader will alienate at least part of the base that voted for him last time, and galvanize lazy dems who didn't vote last time. If Biden wins FL, that's when I'll start feeling confident.

Thanks, I-5.

I agree with you about Hunter Biden. It's old news, and the press/opponents have squeezed it for what it's worth. Same thing with the sexual harassment allegation. The lone accuser has been discredited, no evidence or witnesses have stepped forward, and there hasn't been any other women come out of the woodwork with similar accusations. Sexual predators seldom stop with just one conquest. With both scandals, Trump has a lot smellier dirty laundry if they really wanted to get into a mud slinging fight. Trump might do well to let those sleeping dogs lay.

I might have given Biden the benefit of the doubt in a couple of states, specifically TX and OH, but there are a couple others, specifically NC and GA, that could move into his column, too. At this point, I'm calling it a Biden landslide, the biggest since Reagan in '84.

[RiverDog]

I wish I heard more of the former Trump voters hating on him that I know, but they seem unmoved. If anything they hate the Democrats more than they did before. I know you can find web sites of former Trump voters switching sides, but there are also web sites of former Democrats switching to Republican.

Biden doesn't need to convert any Trump voters. All he has to do is get those that sat out 2016 to the polls, and the two big issues of the day, the coronavirus and the BLM movement, both have broken towards Biden.

I keep wondering who is running these polls. Who is voting in them. If it is a good representation of people who voted for Trump or not. Most of the folks I know feel exactly the same way as they did in the previous election. They hate the Democrats. They don't love Trump, but will only vote Republican. They feel like the Democrats have a bad plan for the nation and a bad message. A few think the Democrats hate America and plan to tear it down with socialism and the like. They really hate the "Defund the police movement" and some feel like they are under attack for being white by the BLM movement. I know one if his famous anti-immigration people like Anne Coulter has turned on him, but I have no idea if that will cause her and whatever weirdos follow her to vote for Biden.[/quote]

That's a fair question. Most polls are done by telephone surveys. There is what is called a no response bias in that, for example, Republicans/conservatives may not be as likely to answer a call or respond to a surveyor's question, but those biases can be identified and weighted so they can factor them into an equation. There's also a possibility that not everyone will answer a question honestly, tell the caller/interviewer what they think they want to hear. But those, too, can be determined. It's a constantly evolving science.

I don't think people do know everything about Hunter BIden. I think the initial attacks were just to seed the waters for attacks during the election. That is when they will intensify just as the Democrats attacks will intensify.

As I said above, Hunter Biden is old news. If Trump is to turn the tables and do it fast, he needs a fresh new scandal to spin people's heads and give them an "oh, chit!" moment. I don't even think that a really bad VP pick would be enough to change the momentum that Biden has built up over the past couple of months.

I don't think we've even seen the tip of the iceberg as to what's coming myself. We have about another month before things really ramp up. Biden gotta pick that VP candidate and see how she influences the polls out of the gate. Then his VP is going to have to talk and have her record looked at. Then she has to be able to manage campaigning.

This should get real interesting real soon.

We'll see. There's a couple of events coming up, including the VP picks and the debates. If Biden picks Warren, he could lose some of his black support and open himself up to attacks of embracing the liberal agenda, and if he does poorly in the debates, makes some stupid gaffes and give Trump an opportunity to score some points on his mental acuity angle, it could tighten things up.

The only thing that I can foresee that would keep Biden out of the White House would be if something seriously bad happens to him, like (heaven forbid) a heart attack, assassination, etc, if a war were to break out, or 9/11-style terrorist attack were to happen.

[Aseahawkfan]

Biden doesn't need to convert any Trump voters. All he has to do is get those that sat out 2016 to the polls, and the two big issues of the day, the coronavirus and the BLM movement, both have broken towards Biden.

Have they broken towards Biden? How can you tell? Right now people are very scared and pissed off about the rioting and constant protests. I'd be dubious believing any polls indicating otherwise. I don't think people are happy at all with the protest chaos and defund the police movement. Not at all. In fact, I think it is scaring moderate voters, especially moderate female voters.

As I said above, Hunter Biden is old news. If Trump is to turn the tables and do it fast, he needs a fresh new scandal to spin people's heads and give them an "oh, chit!" moment. I don't even think that a really bad VP pick would be enough to change the momentum that Biden has built up over the past couple of months.

Not true. Nothing is old news come election time. It's all going to be dredged up. Just like Hilary's emails kept coming up come election time. I think those emails had an effect as well when Comey made his announcement almost the day of the election. Which is why I found it amusing that Comey made a play with Hilary's emails that helped Trump, then he became a pariah shortly after. It was a very strange election overall. I don't expect this to be much better.

Trump voters already know his dirty laundry. So does all of America. The one negative aspect of the constant liberal attack on Trump is they have reached "Boy who cried wolf" territory. America is so accustomed to the liberal media attacking Trump that I don't even think they listen much any more other than those people who already hate him like Hawktawk or C-bob who believe nearly anything negative said about him just as those like IDhawkamn don't believe anything negative said about him. Whereas Biden has not suffered that level of attack yet and it is coming.

We'll see. There's a couple of events coming up, including the VP picks and the debates. If Biden picks Warren, he could lose some of his black support and open himself up to attacks of embracing the liberal agenda, and if he does poorly in the debates, makes some stupid gaffes and give Trump an opportunity to score some points on his mental acuity angle, it could tighten things up.

The only thing that I can foresee that would keep Biden out of the White House would be if something seriously bad happens to him, like (heaven forbid) a heart attack, assassination, etc, if a war were to break out, or 9/11-style terrorist attack were to happen.

We'll see. The attacks are about to start soon as he picks his VP candidate and the election closer. The closer election date comes, we will see huge anti-Trump protests like last time. Not sure if you heard about them, but in Seattle they had huge anti-Trump protests. I expect them to be much worse, more violent, and maybe racially based this time around. As in your belief the riots and protests will die down closer to the election is a false hope. You must have forgotten how bad the protests were the first time Trump was elected. Now they have a locked down, racially charged group of protesters ready to roll and do damage against the city and police and you think they will be less active during the election? That's a pretty strange assessment given what happened when Trump was first elected. I was in Seattle. I was late to work many times from those protests and they were far tamer than these have been. I expect the rioting and protests to worsen the closer to election time.

One wild card highly in Biden's favor will be the Obama effect. If Obama campaigns hard for Biden, that would sway a lot of voters Biden's way. A lot of people still like Obama and I think a lot of moderate voters still hold him in high regard, though Trump voters despise him. We'll see how much Obama campaigns for Biden. Obama is looking to save some of his administration's policies, which Trump has been working to destroy.

It's going to be interesting. I'm betting your way off on the election. Biden is no Reagan. You're about as a right as IDhawkman on Trump's big chance to win. This will be another hard fought, close election between two weak candidates who both have huge flaws.

That's cool. My Trump loving friends are as confident Trump will win as you are that Biden will win. While a realist like me knows this thing doesn't start until Biden picks his VP and they start going at each other. Any polls done right now aren't even close to determining this election. The real campaigning starts in September and goes fast and hard to November 3rd. It's going to be all out war. One thing that might hurt Trump is he works better face to face at rallies with his salesman skills and if he can't do that this time around, Biden might get an advantage from that as he is not nearly as good as Trump at rallying supporters face to face.

[RiverDog]

Have they broken towards Biden? How can you tell? Right now people are very scared and pissed off about the rioting and constant protests. I'd be dubious believing any polls indicating otherwise. I don't think people are happy at all with the protest chaos and defund the police movement. Not at all. In fact, I think it is scaring moderate voters, especially moderate female voters.

Polls consistently show that the vast majority of people feel that the nation is on the wrong track, and that's always an indictment of the incumbent. Voters aren't going to blame Biden for the riots.

Trump voters already know his dirty laundry. So does all of America. The one negative aspect of the constant liberal attack on Trump is they have reached "Boy who cried wolf" territory. America is so accustomed to the liberal media attacking Trump that I don't even think they listen much any more other than those people who already hate him like Hawktawk or C-bob who believe nearly anything negative said about him just as those like IDhawkamn don't believe anything negative said about him. Whereas Biden has not suffered that level of attack yet and it is coming.

That's just it. Everyone already knows everyone else's dirty laundry and have their minds made up. If you take a look at the percentage of undecided voters, it's actually quite small. In 2016, undecided voters made up 18.5% with 100 days left in the campaign and 13% on election day. Today's RCP average of undecided voters is 8.2%. That's why I say that it's going to take a real head spinner to change people's minds, and I just don't see a regurgitation of old news, whether it be Trump's paying hush money to pornstars or Hunter Biden's shady business dealings, being enough to cause voters to give up their commitments.

Any personal attacks that Trump makes this time around involve huge risks as it will be a case of "people that live in glass houses shouldn't throw rocks." For every Biden weakness, Trump has one of his own that exceeds it and will make it extremely difficult for him to exploit it. IMO I don't think attack ads are going to resonate against Biden as it did with Crooked Hillary.

It's going to be interesting. I'm betting your way off on the election. Biden is no Reagan. You're about as a right as IDhawkman on Trump's big chance to win. This will be another hard fought, close election between two weak candidates who both have huge flaws.

That's cool. My Trump loving friends are as confident Trump will win as you are that Biden will win. While a realist like me knows this thing doesn't start until Biden picks his VP and they start going at each other. Any polls done right now aren't even close to determining this election. The real campaigning starts in September and goes fast and hard to November 3rd. It's going to be all out war. One thing that might hurt Trump is he works better face to face at rallies with his salesman skills and if he can't do that this time around, Biden might get an advantage from that as he is not nearly as good as Trump at rallying supporters face to face.

No one in our lifetime will win like Reagan did in '84. It's a much different country than it was in the 80's, a lot more polarized. That's what surprised me about 2016. I hadn't realized just how badly the country was divided.

You're right about the nature of this campaign being different, which is another reason why I don't think Biden's lead won't erode that much. There won't be any cheering, sign pumping crowds at a convention that always gives their candidate a bump in the polls. Same with this fall. Neither campaign is going to be able to host these huge rallies and will have to do most of their campaigning electronically.

If the undecided percentage was higher or if there were a viable 3rd party or independent candidate that could act as a spoiler, ie a Ross Perot, a Pat Buchanan, or Ralph Nader, then I'd be a lot less confident in my forecast.

I may end up looking like a huge fool, but if I do, it won't be the first time.

[I-5]

If anything they hate the Democrats more than they did before.

That may be true for some/most of the Republican base, but as of today, there are at least 2 different republican-based groups creating smart, highly effective anti-Trump ads. I know most republicans will continue to vote for this clown, but it won't be more or as much as last time. He continues to alienate plenty of people in his party on a daily basis.

https://youtu.be/tlmHVtVIJdU

They're not limiting themselves to the POTUS either

https://youtu.be/lSGXknNaYqU

[RiverDog]

If anything they hate the Democrats more than they did before.

That may be true for some/most of the Republican base, but as of today, there are at least 2 different republican-based groups creating smart, highly effective anti-Trump ads. I know most republicans will continue to vote for this clown, but it won't be more or as much as last time. He continues to alienate plenty of people in his party on a daily basis.

https://youtu.be/tlmHVtVIJdU

They're not limiting themselves to the POTUS either

https://youtu.be/lSGXknNaYqU

One of the dirty little secrets behind Trump's canceling the Jacksonville portion of the Republican National Convention is that there were a number of notable Republicans that said they weren't going, such as Senators Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, Chuck Grassley, and Lamar Alexander. Those people being absent would have raised speculation that it wasn't just because of the coronavirus that they chose to socially distance themselves from Trump.

There's other notable Republicans, like Colin Powell and Cindy McCain, daughter of the late Sen. John McCain, that have said they are voting for Biden. Former House Speaker Paul Ryan and John Boehner, both of whom have disagreed with the POTUS on a number of fronts, appear to be leaning towards either a 3rd party candidate or openly endorsing Biden. George W. Bush is unlikely to support Biden but he's almost certainly not going to endorse Trump. Then you have military figures, such as General Mattis, Trump's former Defense Secretary, and Admiral William McRaven, who directed the operation against Osama bin Laden, that have come out against Trump. Former Chief of Staff and Marine Corps Gen. Mark Kelly has said that he "wished we had some additional choices." That kind of disunity wasn't present in 2016.

It's not just the polls that I'm using to form my opinion of a near landslide victory for Biden this November.

[I-5]

Question: is there any advantage to Joe announcing his VP pick next week, vs waiting to do it at the DNC a week later? The pressure is on the dems to show how to responsibly put on a convention during a pandemic. It will be interesting to see if any Covid-19 cases come out of it. So far, republicans are being affected more, not a huge surprise considering some (not all) of their attitudes towards taking it seriously.

It's too bad Romney didn't choose to run this time. This would have been the perfect moment for him. He'd have my vote.

[Aseahawkfan]

That may be true for some/most of the Republican base, but as of today, there are at least 2 different republican-based groups creating smart, highly effective anti-Trump ads. I know most republicans will continue to vote for this clown, but it won't be more or as much as last time. He continues to alienate plenty of people in his party on a daily basis.

https://youtu.be/tlmHVtVIJdU

They're not limiting themselves to the POTUS either

https://youtu.be/lSGXknNaYqU

That happened last time too. I saw this argument before. I looked up how many mainstream Republicans were against Trump and the list was long last election. He had Republican groups attacking him last time.

It's one of they reasons why I don't know how Trump won. He did not have the mainstream Republican vote, or at least all of it. I still don't get it. I know some of who votes for Trump, but I don't know how he won enough to win. It's mind-boggling. How many of those people have changed their minds? i don't know.

[Aseahawkfan]

One of the dirty little secrets behind Trump's canceling the Jacksonville portion of the Republican National Convention is that there were a number of notable Republicans that said they weren't going, such as Senators Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, Chuck Grassley, and Lamar Alexander. Those people being absent would have raised speculation that it wasn't just because of the coronavirus that they chose to socially distance themselves from Trump.

There's other notable Republicans, like Colin Powell and Cindy McCain, daughter of the late Sen. John McCain, that have said they are voting for Biden. Former House Speaker Paul Ryan and John Boehner, both of whom have disagreed with the POTUS on a number of fronts, appear to be leaning towards either a 3rd party candidate or openly endorsing Biden. George W. Bush is unlikely to support Biden but he's almost certainly not going to endorse Trump. Then you have military figures, such as General Mattis, Trump's former Defense Secretary, and Admiral William McRaven, who directed the operation against Osama bin Laden, that have come out against Trump. Former Chief of Staff and Marine Corps Gen. Mark Kelly has said that he "wished we had some additional choices." That kind of disunity wasn't present in 2016.

It's not just the polls that I'm using to form my opinion of a near landslide victory for Biden this November.

Did those people vote for him before? Not sure if he needs them. Do you you have information on who actually voted for Trump? It would be interesting to see who sent him to the White House.

[Aseahawkfan]

Question: is there any advantage to Joe announcing his VP pick next week, vs waiting to do it at the DNC a week later? The pressure is on the dems to show how to responsibly put on a convention during a pandemic. It will be interesting to see if any Covid-19 cases come out of it. So far, republicans are being affected more, not a huge surprise considering some (not all) of their attitudes towards taking it seriously.

It's too bad Romney didn't choose to run this time. This would have been the perfect moment for him. He'd have my vote.

Romney may be positioning for 2024. If Trump gets beat, he'll be able to go up against a weak Biden or a VP candidate that may or may not be ready to go.

The smart Republicans can see the Democrats are fielding a weak candidate against a weak candidate. They can let Trump fall, then field a moderate centrist like Romney in 2024 to take back The White House if Biden's weak leadership creates further issues that divide the nation or at least the Dems. Are the Bernie Bros backing Biden still? Is the Trump hate sufficient to unite the Democrat voter base? Once the Trump hate is gone, can Romney capitalize in 2024 to take the presidency with the Democratic Party divided between a more centrist approach like Biden or the socialism of Bernie?

[I-5]

Romney vs Biden in 2024 would be about 1,000,000,000,000,000 better than the current pile of sh*t we're dealing with. I'd be pleased no matter who wins, as both are functioning, decent human beings.

[Aseahawkfan]

Romney vs Biden in 2024 would be about 1,000,000,000,000,000 better than the current pile of sh*t we're dealing with. I'd be pleased no matter who wins, as both are functioning, decent human beings.

Yep. Romney would have a good shot at winning too.

[Aseahawkfan]

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/

Here is a breakdown of the 2016 election post-election analysis of who voted for Trump. It gives some basic demographics. I wonder which groups have shifted away from him substantially.

Once election day comes around, will the corona virus response still be paramount on the minds of people? Corona virus will not always be primary on the mind. People will want to know what the economy will look like post-Corona virus. We can't stay locked away forever to protect less than 1% of the population. I'm wondering how many of these people losing everything will blame Trump or the Democrats for the endless lock downs. I want to see what the feeling is like come election days. If all Biden is offering for his corona virus plan is more lock downs on a national level, not sure people will be very receptive to that. Once he is locked in, his corona virus plan needs to seem better than Trump's and it has to be something other than endless lock downs or what we're already doing.

[RiverDog]

One of the dirty little secrets behind Trump's canceling the Jacksonville portion of the Republican National Convention is that there were a number of notable Republicans that said they weren't going, such as Senators Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, Chuck Grassley, and Lamar Alexander. Those people being absent would have raised speculation that it wasn't just because of the coronavirus that they chose to socially distance themselves from Trump.

There's other notable Republicans, like Colin Powell and Cindy McCain, daughter of the late Sen. John McCain, that have said they are voting for Biden. Former House Speaker Paul Ryan and John Boehner, both of whom have disagreed with the POTUS on a number of fronts, appear to be leaning towards either a 3rd party candidate or openly endorsing Biden. George W. Bush is unlikely to support Biden but he's almost certainly not going to endorse Trump. Then you have military figures, such as General Mattis, Trump's former Defense Secretary, and Admiral William McRaven, who directed the operation against Osama bin Laden, that have come out against Trump. Former Chief of Staff and Marine Corps Gen. Mark Kelly has said that he "wished we had some additional choices." That kind of disunity wasn't present in 2016.

It's not just the polls that I'm using to form my opinion of a near landslide victory for Biden this November.

Did those people vote for him before? Not sure if he needs them. Do you you have information on who actually voted for Trump? It would be interesting to see who sent him to the White House.

Bush and his wife didn't vote for either Trump or HRC and left that section of the ballot blank. They came out and said that after a false claim by Rush Limbaugh that they voted for HRC. John Boehmer and Paul Ryan voted for Trump. Colin Powell did not vote for Trump in 2016 but did not declare who he voted for. Since Mattis and Kelly both voluntarily served for Trump in his cabinet, it's reasonable to conclude that they probably voted for him. Mitt Romney, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Ms. McCain did not vote for Trump but no information on who they voted for. Many abandoned Trump in 2016 after an audio tape surfaced with Trump bragging about being able to sexually assault women w/o consequences.

While Trump hasn't 'lost' all those R's over the past 4 years, he hasn't converted any that were against him in 2016. The point is that he doesn't want to risk the embarrassment presented by a growing number of notable R's that have said they won't attend the convention. This makes it very unlikely that he'll get any kind of post convention bump.

[RiverDog]

Question: is there any advantage to Joe announcing his VP pick next week, vs waiting to do it at the DNC a week later? The pressure is on the dems to show how to responsibly put on a convention during a pandemic. It will be interesting to see if any Covid-19 cases come out of it. So far, republicans are being affected more, not a huge surprise considering some (not all) of their attitudes towards taking it seriously.

It's too bad Romney didn't choose to run this time. This would have been the perfect moment for him. He'd have my vote.

Romney may be positioning for 2024. If Trump gets beat, he'll be able to go up against a weak Biden or a VP candidate that may or may not be ready to go.

The smart Republicans can see the Democrats are fielding a weak candidate against a weak candidate. They can let Trump fall, then field a moderate centrist like Romney in 2024 to take back The White House if Biden's weak leadership creates further issues that divide the nation or at least the Dems. Are the Bernie Bros backing Biden still? Is the Trump hate sufficient to unite the Democrat voter base? Once the Trump hate is gone, can Romney capitalize in 2024 to take the presidency with the Democratic Party divided between a more centrist approach like Biden or the socialism of Bernie?

Supposedly Romney laughed his guts out at a suggestion that he run for POTUS in 2024:

When I asked Romney about speculation that he's positioning himself for another presidential run, he laughed harder than I'd ever seen him laugh"

https://theweek.com/speedreads/893916/r ... -president

No info on Sanders. His co chair has likened voting for Biden to eating a bowl of s***. A lot of the progressives are waiting for Biden to make his VP choice before they'll endorse the ticket.

[RiverDog]

Romney vs Biden in 2024 would be about 1,000,000,000,000,000 better than the current pile of sh*t we're dealing with. I'd be pleased no matter who wins, as both are functioning, decent human beings.

Yep. Romney would have a good shot at winning too.

I agree that Romney would have a good shot at winning in 2024, but not in 2020. Any R nominee needs those hard core conservatives that so adore Trump and my opinion is that if the R's were to dump Trump and replace him with Romney that they'd sit out 2020.

Although it's obviously still too premature (only an idiot would predict a POTUS election this far out ) to start talking about a post Trump Republican party, it's still worth a discussion. A lot depends on if the R's can hold onto the Senate. Mitch McConnell not only stands to lose his Senate Majority position, he has a tough election ahead of him. The R's have 23 seats in the Senate to defend and only 10 of those are considered safe, so the table is set for a huge Democratic wave.

A lot of how the R's look post Trump depends on how Biden plays his hand. If he embraces a lot of the progressive agenda, pushes for radical changes to health care, for example, you could see a kinder, gentler version of Trump form in opposition. That's how in 1994 the R's flipped the House for the first time in over 40 years as Clinton, who won his election by running as a moderate, badly overplayed his advantage by letting his old lady push for Hillary Care. The R's gained 8 Senate seats, a whopping 54 seats in the House which included the sitting Speaker, and 10 gubernatorial elections. That election re-defined Clinton's tact over the next 6 years.

[Hawktawk]

Romney vs Biden in 2024 would be about 1,000,000,000,000,000 better than the current pile of sh*t we're dealing with. I'd be pleased no matter who wins, as both are functioning, decent human beings.


Yep. Romney would have a good shot at winning too.

He would have my enthusiastic support. hes the only republican with a shed of integrity.

[Hawktawk]

Senate is leaning Dem right now. I hope the trumpanzees get crushed, eliminated as a political party. I'd love to see McConnell, Graham, all these shills that have enabled this madman deconstructing the office of the presidency gone . they need to pay the price.

[RiverDog]

Senate is leaning Dem right now. I hope the trumpanzees get crushed, eliminated as a political party. I'd love to see McConnell, Graham, all these shills that have enabled this madman deconstructing the office of the presidency gone . they need to pay the price.

I agree, the Senate is looking very blue at the moment. The math alone makes it all the more probable that the R's will lose the upper chamber. My guess is that they lose 5-7 seats.

I'd like to see the R's pay a price, too, but it'd be like cutting off your nose to spite your face. With too few Republicans to oppose them, the liberals would run barefoot through government and society. Nothing would be safe. With the damage they'd wreck on Wall Street, our 401K's and IRA's would be worthless. You can say goodbye to the dams in Eastern Washington and the 2nd Amendment. I want to see the Republicans undergo an enema, not a vasectomy.

[c_hawkbob]

With too few Republicans to oppose them, the liberals would run barefoot through government and society

Sure they will, like when for instance? Surely there have been other times with both houses and the Exec branch all blue and the world didn't go batsh!t crazy then did it?

[RiverDog]

Sure they will, like when for instance? Surely there have been other times with both houses and the Exec branch all blue and the world didn't go batsh!t crazy then did it?

The world is bat sh!t crazy now.

[c_hawkbob]

Yeah! after two years of all red control!

[RiverDog]

Yeah! after two years of all red control!

Not really. The past year plus has seen a blue House of Representatives.

And to respond to your point, there's only been two short periods of time since the 70's, in 1993-94 and 2009-10, where the Dems controlled the legislative and executive branches simultaneously, so there's not a lot of recent history to go off of.

Actually I don't want to see either party control both the executive and legislative branches at the same time. My motto is "Give me gridlock or give me death!"

[c_hawkbob]

Yes really, all red control from 16 through 18, that's two years, and it's the two years that sent us down the rabbit hole as a country. We are in the next two year period between opportunities to change again so yes, this is 'after 2 years of all red control'. And it was a disaster!

[RiverDog]

Yes really, all red control from 16 through 18, that's two years, and it's the two years that sent us down the rabbit hole as a country. We are in the next two year period between opportunities to change again so yes, this is 'after 2 years of all red control'. And it was a disaster!

The country was in great shape from the end of the Great Recession, through '18, and up until the current crisis...and that includes the Obama years when we had a divided government. We were at peace, historic low unemployment, almost no inflation, more job openings than unemployed, stock market at a record high.

[c_hawkbob]

No, not "through 18". You can't blame everything that's wrong with the country right now on Covid. Trump's "smack 'em in the mouth" rhetoric and racist dog whistle tweeting and coddling of despots while alienating allies had us swirling the drain long before he lost the House.

[Aseahawkfan]

Not sure how people come to the conclusion life was bad under Trump when the economy was in an extremely good position. And we had not had any wars or boots on the ground anywhere. Our power position was unassailable to the point we could go toe to toe with China without any real economic repercussions. Crime wasn't rising and likely falling. The worst thing we had to deal with was the annoying chatter between the Republicans and Democrats. Prior to COVID19, Trump was almost a shoe in to win re-election given the economic health of the nation, lack of war, and general prosperity of the environment.

I guess leave it to the media to get people thinking the sky is falling when the sun is shining brightly, especially the opposing media. Listened to the Republicans and conservatives make it seem like Obama was doing a terrible job for years even when I told them the economy is fine, life is improving, and Obama is listening to his advisers and doing what he needs to do to get things back on track. Other than his odious personality, Trump was managing the economy and general national prosperity absolutely fine prior to COVID19. The nation was in a great position with rising wages and the lowest unemployment rate in history, no war, and everything stable and on track for an easy life.

Then COVID19 hit. It all went down the drain.

That's the media for you. When they want to take down a candidate, they can Americans on the opposing side believe the sky is falling.

[RiverDog]

No, not "through 18". You can't blame everything that's wrong with the country right now on Covid. Trump's "smack 'em in the mouth" rhetoric and racist dog whistle tweeting and coddling of despots while alienating allies had us swirling the drain long before he lost the House.

'The vast majority of what ails us as a nation, including the riots, are due either in its entirely or in part to the pandemic.

I don't like the way Trump has treated some of our allies, but the fact is that they need us a helluva lot more than we need them. Once we lance the hemorrhoid this November and cooler heads take the reins next January, things will be back to normal.

[RiverDog]

Not sure how people come to the conclusion life was bad under Trump when the economy was in an extremely good position. And we had not had any wars or boots on the ground anywhere. Our power position was unassailable to the point we could go toe to toe with China without any real economic repercussions. Crime wasn't rising and likely falling. The worst thing we had to deal with was the annoying chatter between the Republicans and Democrats. Prior to COVID19, Trump was almost a shoe in to win re-election given the economic health of the nation, lack of war, and general prosperity of the environment.

I agree with everything except for the last sentence. It would be a heck of a lot closer than it stands to be now had the pandemic not struck and had Trump not done such a poor job responding to it, but anytime a sitting POTUS has a sub 50% job approval as Trump has during his entire presidency, he's going to have a tough time getting re-elected.

I guess leave it to the media to get people thinking the sky is falling when the sun is shining brightly, especially the opposing media. Listened to the Republicans and conservatives make it seem like Obama was doing a terrible job for years even when I told them the economy is fine, life is improving, and Obama is listening to his advisers and doing what he needs to do to get things back on track. Other than his odious personality, Trump was managing the economy and general national prosperity absolutely fine prior to COVID19. The nation was in a great position with rising wages and the lowest unemployment rate in history, no war, and everything stable and on track for an easy life.

Then COVID19 hit. It all went down the drain.

That's the media for you. When they want to take down a candidate, they can Americans on the opposing side believe the sky is falling.

The media would be completely powerless if not for the fact that we're a country of stooges. Most people will only watch/read/listen to that which agrees with their core beliefs.

You blame the salesman selling snake oil. I blame the people stupid enough to buy it.

[c_hawkbob]

'The vast majority of what ails us as a nation, including the riots, are due either in its entirely or in part to the pandemic.

I don't like the way Trump has treated some of our allies, but the fact is that they need us a helluva lot more than we need them. Once we lance the hemorrhoid this November and cooler heads take the reins next January, things will be back to normal.

I cannot disagree with you more. You have always pooh pooh'd the damage Trump caused by triggering the worst in the worst elements of our society and by his making racism and hate and ignorance OK again. It'd be laughable if it wasn't so sad.

This pandemic in and of itself would have been next to nothing has Trump not fired the Pandemic response team (including monitors permanently stationed in China to identify such a problem and work to keep it from ever leaving China in spite of any mistakes made by the Chinese) and thrown out the pandemic response playbook. There would have been no months of denial and actively working against the scientific and medical communities. We would have been right there along with most of the rest of the world in keeping this thing in fair check. (Like Canada for instance) ...

Everything going on right now, from the pandemic running wild in our country to the BLM movement gaining so much steam in counter to his "get tough with them" (but not the white ones!) routine, is traceable directly to this joker, and you have been wrong about the effect he's had on this country every step of the way. Time to start taking this clown much more seriously. Just because the markets are weathering this storm doesn't mean the country is.