Mask Mandates

[NorthHawk]

Even if it doesn't kill people, it can ruin their lungs and set them up for breathing problems for the rest of their lives.
Children included, and that might be a whole other problem for an entire generation if they aren't protected from this
virus and people who carry it. I hope they have enough data soon to recommend vaccinating younger people.

[RiverDog]

Even if it doesn't kill people, it can ruin their lungs and set them up for breathing problems for the rest of their lives. Children included, and that might be a whole other problem for an entire generation if they aren't protected from this virus and people who carry it. I hope they have enough data soon to recommend vaccinating younger people.

Not too unlike polio was for my parent's generation.

For the most part, even though they seem to be two steps behind the rest of the world, I agree with how the FDA has approached their approval process. Having the data submitted to an independent review board is a very good system of checks and balances. They learned their lesson from the Anthrax vaccine given to troops during the first Gulf War.

[Aseahawkfan]

Well, there it is. CDC recommending booster shots. I'll keep watching this. I'm not much on board with yearly vaccination mandates. That is so far beyond the case the law because the other vaccines eradicated the viruses they were used for.

We seem to be in a situation where this isn't going to be eradicated because the poorer nations are going to generate constant mutations since they cannot afford to vaccinate their populations. The first world nations may have to pony up the cash to get these nations vaccinated if we want anything close to eradication.

[Aseahawkfan]

That was from one study done in Israel, but it's clear that the vaccines do wane or are less effective against certain variants, and even though as you point out that it's still very effective against serious illness, vaccinated people can still spread it, further justifying the need for a booster or a modified vaccine that targets the Delta variant. It also explains why the FDA has changed course and are now recommending that even vaccinated individuals wear masks in certain situations.

It wasn't a study. It was recorded data. Pure and simple. That data I hope is being well recorded here. How many vaccinated people are getting the virus and what effect is it having on them. Pure numbers, not 20 times or 5 times that. Pure numbers.

Your concern is well justified. The current guideline is that boosters of Pfizer and Moderna are needed 8 months after the 2nd dose. and for now, they're telling people to stick with the same manufacturer. They haven't come up with a recommendation for the J&J vaccine. My wife got a booster last week.

Since it's unlikely that we'll never reach herd immunity through vaccination, we're going to be playing whack a mole, for years perhaps. The good news is that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are more easily tweaked to account for different variants, so it's quite possible that we'll be getting shots every 6-8 months for the foreseeable future.

We'll see if mandates hold up for constant vaccination. Previous vaccines have been far more effective in eradication, not getting new shots every 6 to 8 months. I'm not sure the case law supports that.

[Aseahawkfan]

For the most part, even though they seem to be two steps behind the rest of the world, I agree with how the FDA has approached their approval process. Having the data submitted to an independent review board is a very good system of checks and balances. They learned their lesson from the Anthrax vaccine given to troops during the first Gulf War.

I doubt the FDA learned their lesson. The anthrax vaccine was approved for emergency use by troops because it was expected to be used in warfare and U.S. troops are contractually U.S. property and they have to submit to orders or suffer the consequences.

The Anthrax Vaccine was not mandated or able to be taken by anyone other than military personnel or anyone expecting to come into contact with Anthrax. It had very bad side effects and would never have been approved for mandate.

Not sure how you get these parallels sometimes. The government would not have been able to initiate mandates with the public at all if the Anthrax Vaccine level of side effects occurred with the COVID19 vaccines. We wouldn't even see them in use right now if they had those types of problems.

[RiverDog]

It wasn't a study. It was recorded data. Pure and simple. That data I hope is being well recorded here. How many vaccinated people are getting the virus and what effect is it having on them. Pure numbers, not 20 times or 5 times that. Pure numbers.

Call it what you want, but if the number presented aren't large enough or from a random enough population set, they may not be acccurate.

Your concern is well justified. The current guideline is that boosters of Pfizer and Moderna are needed 8 months after the 2nd dose. and for now, they're telling people to stick with the same manufacturer. They haven't come up with a recommendation for the J&J vaccine. My wife got a booster last week.

Since it's unlikely that we'll never reach herd immunity through vaccination, we're going to be playing whack a mole, for years perhaps. The good news is that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are more easily tweaked to account for different variants, so it's quite possible that we'll be getting shots every 6-8 months for the foreseeable future.

We'll see if mandates hold up for constant vaccination. Previous vaccines have been far more effective in eradication, not getting new shots every 6 to 8 months. I'm not sure the case law supports that.

Previous vaccinations have not been more effective than the current Covid vaccines. Small pox, for example, is believed to have existed before the birth of Christ. It took us decades to eradicate it through the widespread use of vaccines. These Covid vaccines, in particular those of Pfizer and Moderna, are truly revolutionary. The only problem with them is that we can't get enough needles into arms.

Covid is a brand new virus. There's a chance that it could eventually die out, mutate into something less contagious, or it could be something that we'll have to deal with for centuries.

[RiverDog]

The Anthrax Vaccine was not mandated or able to be taken by anyone other than military personnel or anyone expecting to come into contact with Anthrax. It had very bad side effects and would never have been approved for mandate.

Not sure how you get these parallels sometimes. The government would not have been able to initiate mandates with the public at all if the Anthrax Vaccine level of side effects occurred with the COVID19 vaccines. We wouldn't even see them in use right now if they had those types of problems.

I'm not trying to draw any parallels between various vaccines. All I am saying is that the FDA was burned by the Anthrax incident and that it has affected their thinking with regards to the current crisis, caused them to be more deliberate.

[Aseahawkfan]

I'm not trying to draw any parallels between various vaccines. All I am saying is that the FDA was burned by the Anthrax incident and that it has affected their thinking with regards to the current crisis, caused them to be more deliberate.

More deliberate? It was the fastest approved vaccine in history. I doubt the Antrhax vaccine affected their thought process at all. This is all unprecedented territory as far as FDA approval goes.

[Aseahawkfan]

Previous vaccinations have not been more effective than the current Covid vaccines. Small pox, for example, is believed to have existed before the birth of Christ. It took us decades to eradicate it through the widespread use of vaccines. These Covid vaccines, in particular those of Pfizer and Moderna, are truly revolutionary. The only problem with them is that we can't get enough needles into arms.

Covid is a brand new virus. There's a chance that it could eventually die out, mutate into something less contagious, or it could be something that we'll have to deal with for centuries.

Yes. These vaccines are new. But that is why I think we should start sending vaccines abroad. We need to get more needles in arms in other nations. Eradication requires vaccination on a much wider scale. If Americans don't want, we can send them to some other nations. We need to widen the scale.

Small pox eradication required international support for vaccination worldwide.

[RiverDog]

Yes. These vaccines are new. But that is why I think we should start sending vaccines abroad. We need to get more needles in arms in other nations. Eradication requires vaccination on a much wider scale. If Americans don't want, we can send them to some other nations. We need to widen the scale.

Small pox eradication required international support for vaccination worldwide.

We have been shipping the vaccines worldwide. As a matter of fact, we have donated more Covid vaccine than all the other countries in the world combined, which includes China, Russia, the UK, Germany, et al. But it's not enough. As of several weeks ago, we've donated 110 million. It needs to be way more than that if we are to be successful. But the other rich countries need to step up to the plate, too.

If you will recall, I was very critical of the Biden Administration sitting on 40 million doses of the Astra Zeneca vaccine, which not only hasn't been approved in this country, they haven't even applied for approval. If we could ever get past this surge of hospitalizations, I would be for the federal government paying health care providers to go on missions to poorer countries and put on vaccination clinics. It's a worldwide pandemic that knows no borders.

[Aseahawkfan]

We have been shipping the vaccines worldwide. As a matter of fact, we have donated more Covid vaccine than all the other countries in the world combined, which includes China, Russia, the UK, Germany, et al. But it's not enough. As of several weeks ago, we've donated 110 million. It needs to be way more than that if we are to be successful. But the other rich countries need to step up to the plate, too.

If you will recall, I was very critical of the Biden Administration sitting on 40 million doses of the Astra Zeneca vaccine, which not only hasn't been approved in this country, they haven't even applied for approval. If we could ever get past this surge of hospitalizations, I would be for the federal government paying health care providers to go on missions to poorer countries and put on vaccination clinics. It's a worldwide pandemic that knows no borders.

This is why I don't worry about China controlling the world. If they aren't going to step up and do right after they screw up early in this pandemic, then they have no chance of being the replacement for the United States.

With all the people painting the United States as the bad guy within the country with all we do positive for the world, I keep wondering who the good guy is when no one steps up like us to help the world even when an idiot is president.

[RiverDog]

This is why I don't worry about China controlling the world. If they aren't going to step up and do right after they screw up early in this pandemic, then they have no chance of being the replacement for the United States.

With all the people painting the United States as the bad guy within the country with all we do positive for the world, I keep wondering who the good guy is when no one steps up like us to help the world even when an idiot is president.

You're preaching to the choir, bro. We Americans don't get near the credit we deserve, especially when you contrast it with all the grief we have to take being the world's policeman. I personally know several medical workers, my orthopedic surgeon that replaced my knee and an x-ray technician friend of mine to name a couple, that have volunteered to go overseas on good will missions and donate their services to those in need that can't afford it. But that stuff doesn't get international headlines.

[Aseahawkfan]

You're preaching to the choir, bro. We Americans don't get near the credit we deserve, especially when you contrast it with all the grief we have to take being the world's policeman. I personally know several medical workers, my orthopedic surgeon that replaced my knee and an x-ray technician friend of mine to name a couple, that have volunteered to go overseas on good will missions and donate their services to those in need that can't afford it. But that stuff doesn't get international headlines.

I'm not even talking about outside the country. I'm talking about inside the nation where politicians mostly on the Democratic side pillory America, cops, and keep this racial strife alive to maintain votes. They paint us as bad guys inside our nation and overlook all the good we've done over the years and act like we're like the worst bad guys ever while trying to play up Europe and other nations that do less than us to help the world.

I wonder who in their minds are the good guys.

[RiverDog]

You're preaching to the choir, bro. We Americans don't get near the credit we deserve, especially when you contrast it with all the grief we have to take being the world's policeman. I personally know several medical workers, my orthopedic surgeon that replaced my knee and an x-ray technician friend of mine to name a couple, that have volunteered to go overseas on good will missions and donate their services to those in need that can't afford it. But that stuff doesn't get international headlines.

I'm not even talking about outside the country. I'm talking about inside the nation where politicians mostly on the Democratic side pillory America, cops, and keep this racial strife alive to maintain votes. They paint us as bad guys inside our nation and overlook all the good we've done over the years and act like we're like the worst bad guys ever while trying to play up Europe and other nations that do less than us to help the world.

I wonder who in their minds are the good guys.

You mentioned in your first paragraph China not being able to fill the void so I assumed that you were speaking internationally, but no biggie.

Again, I agree with you regarding the liberal agenda as it applies to things like the defund the police movement, the cancel culture, critical race theory, and so on. It also has the effect of keeping politicians like Donald Trump relevant and pushes weak minded people that are 'on the bubble' towards the radical right. It's a great recruiting tool for white supremacy groups. Too bad that the progressives are so caught up in their own radical thoughts that they can't see the unintended consequences of their uncompromising agenda.

[RiverDog]

Back to topic. Johnson & Johnson just announced that studies showed that a booster shot of their vaccine resulted in a 9 fold increase in antibody production:

Johnson & Johnson said on Wednesday that studies show a booster shot of its vaccine provides a "rapid and robust increase" in Covid-19 antibodies when used on people who have already received its first dose.

The interim data showed people who already had been given the J&J vaccine experienced a nine-fold increase in spike-binding antibodies compared with 28 days after the first dose, the drugmaker said in a statement.

https://news.yahoo.com/johnson-johnson- ... 42695.html

[c_hawkbob]

Back to topic. Johnson & Johnson just announced that studies showed that a booster shot of their vaccine resulted in a 9 fold increase in antibody production:

Johnson & Johnson said on Wednesday that studies show a booster shot of its vaccine provides a "rapid and robust increase" in Covid-19 antibodies when used on people who have already received its first dose.

The interim data showed people who already had been given the J&J vaccine experienced a nine-fold increase in spike-binding antibodies compared with 28 days after the first dose, the drugmaker said in a statement.

https://news.yahoo.com/johnson-johnson- ... 42695.html

Maybe J&J shoulda been a 2 shot vaccination all along.

[RiverDog]

Back to topic. Johnson & Johnson just announced that studies showed that a booster shot of their vaccine resulted in a 9 fold increase in antibody production:

Johnson & Johnson said on Wednesday that studies show a booster shot of its vaccine provides a "rapid and robust increase" in Covid-19 antibodies when used on people who have already received its first dose.

The interim data showed people who already had been given the J&J vaccine experienced a nine-fold increase in spike-binding antibodies compared with 28 days after the first dose, the drugmaker said in a statement.

https://news.yahoo.com/johnson-johnson- ... 42695.html

Maybe J&J shoulda been a 2 shot vaccination all along.

The Delta variant has changed the game for everyone, including the vaccine manufacturers. Plus they did last 5-6 months, which is about how long a flu shot is effective.

[RiverDog]

This is something that I've been saying should happen for a long time:

Delta Air Lines will charge employees on the company health plan $200 a month if they fail to get vaccinated against COVID-19, a policy the airline’s top executive says is necessary because the average hospital stay for the virus costs the airline $40,000.

CEO Ed Bastian said that all employees who have been hospitalized for the virus in recent weeks were not fully vaccinated.

The airline said Wednesday that it also will stop extending pay protection to unvaccinated workers who contract COVID-19 on Sept. 30, and will require unvaccinated workers to be tested weekly beginning Sept. 12, although Delta will cover the cost.

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2021/ ... 06V-KiCY3c

Since the unvaccinated make up nearly all of the Covid hospitalizations and ICU stays, the people that do get the shot should not be forced to pay for those that choose not to. These hospital stays are very expensive, and insurance companies are going to be forced to respond by raising premiums on everyone unless they start charging the unvaccinated for unnecessary hospital stays. It's no different than making a smoker pay a higher premium or giving a discount to those that meet certain wellness criteria.

[RiverDog]

It (Israeli data on vaccine efficacy) wasn't a study. It was recorded data. Pure and simple. That data I hope is being well recorded here. How many vaccinated people are getting the virus and what effect is it having on them. Pure numbers, not 20 times or 5 times that. Pure numbers.

Here's the problem with the Israeli's "pure numbers":

Late last month, researchers in Israel released some alarming new Covid-19 data. The data showed that many Israelis who had been among the first to receive the vaccine were nonetheless catching the Covid virus. Israelis who had been vaccinated later were not getting infected as often.

The study led to headlines around the world about waning immunity — the idea that vaccines lose their effectiveness over time. In the U.S., the Israeli study accelerated a debate about vaccine booster shots and played a role in the Biden administration’s recent recommendation that all Americans receive a booster shot eight months after their second dose.

But the real story about waning immunity is more complex than the initial headlines suggested. Some scientists believe that the Israeli data was misleading and that U.S. policy on booster shots has gotten ahead of the facts. The evidence for waning immunity is murky, these scientists say, and booster shots may not have a big effect.

At first glance, the Israeli data seems straightforward: People who had been vaccinated in the winter were more likely to contract the virus this summer than people who had been vaccinated in the spring.

Yet it would truly be proof of waning immunity only if the two groups — the winter and spring vaccine recipients — were otherwise similar to each other. If not, the other differences between them might be the real reason for the gap in the Covid rates.

As it turns out, the two groups were different. The first Israelis to have received the vaccine tended to be more affluent and educated. By coincidence, these same groups later were among the first exposed to the Delta variant, perhaps because they were more likely to travel. Their higher infection rate may have stemmed from the new risks they were taking, not any change in their vaccine protection.

Sure enough, other data supports the notion that vaccine immunity is not waning much. The ratio of positive Covid tests among older adults and children, for example, does not seem to be changing, Dowdy notes. If waning immunity were a major problem, we should expect to see a faster rise in Covid cases among older people (who were among the first to receive shots). And even the Israeli analysis showed that the vaccines continued to prevent serious Covid illness at essentially the same rate as before.

Statisticians have a name for this possibility — when topline statistics point to a false conclusion that disappears when you examine subgroups. It’s called Simpson’s Paradox.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/30/brie ... shots.html

So the Devil is in the details. As my prof in my first statistics course said in his initial remarks on the first day of class: There are liars, damn liars, and then there are statisticians"

[Aseahawkfan]

Here's the problem with the Israeli's "pure numbers":

Late last month, researchers in Israel released some alarming new Covid-19 data. The data showed that many Israelis who had been among the first to receive the vaccine were nonetheless catching the Covid virus. Israelis who had been vaccinated later were not getting infected as often.

The study led to headlines around the world about waning immunity — the idea that vaccines lose their effectiveness over time. In the U.S., the Israeli study accelerated a debate about vaccine booster shots and played a role in the Biden administration’s recent recommendation that all Americans receive a booster shot eight months after their second dose.

But the real story about waning immunity is more complex than the initial headlines suggested. Some scientists believe that the Israeli data was misleading and that U.S. policy on booster shots has gotten ahead of the facts. The evidence for waning immunity is murky, these scientists say, and booster shots may not have a big effect.

At first glance, the Israeli data seems straightforward: People who had been vaccinated in the winter were more likely to contract the virus this summer than people who had been vaccinated in the spring.

Yet it would truly be proof of waning immunity only if the two groups — the winter and spring vaccine recipients — were otherwise similar to each other. If not, the other differences between them might be the real reason for the gap in the Covid rates.

As it turns out, the two groups were different. The first Israelis to have received the vaccine tended to be more affluent and educated. By coincidence, these same groups later were among the first exposed to the Delta variant, perhaps because they were more likely to travel. Their higher infection rate may have stemmed from the new risks they were taking, not any change in their vaccine protection.

Sure enough, other data supports the notion that vaccine immunity is not waning much. The ratio of positive Covid tests among older adults and children, for example, does not seem to be changing, Dowdy notes. If waning immunity were a major problem, we should expect to see a faster rise in Covid cases among older people (who were among the first to receive shots). And even the Israeli analysis showed that the vaccines continued to prevent serious Covid illness at essentially the same rate as before.

Statisticians have a name for this possibility — when topline statistics point to a false conclusion that disappears when you examine subgroups. It’s called Simpson’s Paradox.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/30/brie ... shots.html

So the Devil is in the details. As my prof in my first statistics course said in his initial remarks on the first day of class: There are liars, damn liars, and then there are statisticians"

You posted a competing opinion. It doesn't change the Israeli numbers, not sure why you think it does. Then you post a quote about statistical lies when the article you wrote is about a statistician seeing the base data in a different way using statistics. You never seem to see the problem with your own examples. This Israeli data was pure numbers as in just the numbers prior to manipulation by statisticians unlike your article which was a statistician manipulating the data to make it appear better than it is.

Time will tell who is right. Right now we're in the early stages of breakthrough infections. We'll see what happens as more data comes in.

I am absolutely sure this is something to watch and account for. If the vaccines are being blasted through, we absolutely need to know and fast. I would like the CDC and John Hopkins to set up a different tracker for vaccinated versus unvaccinated hospitalizations and deaths that were just the numbers, not articles based on percentages myself. I hope that happens soon.

I have a buddy who told me when he visited the UW medical center some doctor told him the vaccines don't work against the Delta Variant. I could not find a position paper stating this on the UW medical web site, so I doubt it is true. But he believes it. Someone there must have told him something because he doesn't lie.

[RiverDog]

You posted a competing opinion. It doesn't change the Israeli numbers, not sure why you think it does. Then you post a quote about statistical lies when the article you wrote is about a statistician seeing the base data in a different way using statistics. You never seem to see the problem with your own examples. This Israeli data was pure numbers as in just the numbers prior to manipulation by statisticians unlike your article which was a statistician manipulating the data to make it appear better than it is.

Time will tell who is right. Right now we're in the early stages of breakthrough infections. We'll see what happens as more data comes in.

The problem with your numbers aren't the numbers themselves, it's the conclusion you're drawing from them.

The sub groups within the data collected by the Israelis, ie the first group vaccinated vs. the 2nd group, is not an opinion, it is a fact. The fact is that they first vaccinated mostly educated, well to do, and more mobile citizens before they vaccinated middle and lower class citizens with fewer resources that may have had different behavioral characteristics that would not expose them to the virus to the same degree as the first group. We know for a fact that mobility is a condition that affects the spread of the virus, that it starts at ports of entry when people travel to areas of high infection, or in this case, the new Delta variant, that you are more likely to contract the disease than if you stayed at home, hence the lockdowns. It is a no brainer fact that poor people don't travel as much as rich people do.

I am absolutely sure this is something to watch and account for. If the vaccines are being blasted through, we absolutely need to know and fast. I would like the CDC and John Hopkins to set up a different tracker for vaccinated versus unvaccinated hospitalizations and deaths that were just the numbers, not articles based on percentages myself. I hope that happens soon.

I agree completely about watching it, but it's not just about numbers. You have to consider who it was collected from, where they were, and when it was collected. All I was doing was showing why the CDC had hesitated to recommend booster shots, that they were not completely confident that the information coming out if Israel was accurate enough to recommend them. Indeed, they've changed their minds multiple times just in recent weeks, first recommending boosters recommended at 6 months, then later they dropped it to 5 months. The latest I've heard is that they're now back up to 8 months. It's a confused mess.

I have a buddy who told me when he visited the UW medical center some doctor told him the vaccines don't work against the Delta Variant. I could not find a position paper stating this on the UW medical web site, so I doubt it is true. But he believes it. Someone there must have told him something because he doesn't lie.

It depends on what your definition of "doesn't work" is. If the definition is to prevent infection, he's likely right. Even here in my own area, ie Benton and Franklin counties, the number of "breakthrough cases" of vaccinated individuals contracting Covid have more than tripled since June and the arrival of the Delta variant (down from 96% to about 90% effectiveness). However, since our area has the lowest vaccination rate in the state, there's more infected people spreading the virus than there is in the Seattle area, which increases the likelihood of a breakthrough case.

But if the definition is to prevent serious illness, then he's probably wrong as there's quite a bit of evidence, including that from Israel, that they are very effective at keeping people out of the hospital.

[Aseahawkfan]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cdc-shares-8-charts-show-205132634.html

Here is an interesting article with more in-depth data and analysis on vaccinated versus unvaccinated. One of the better articles I've seen on the matter. Less fear mongering and more clear data you can analyze to see if there are any issues with the analysis. It gives more data numbers and not the statistical manipulation of 16 times this or 400% that. There is some of that in this article, but also you can see some of the base data.

Those kinds of numbers are pretty worthless and manipulative if that is all an article contains. I see them used in crime statistics all the time like my buddy telling me crime Portland is up 2000 percent and you find out it when from 1 to 20 in a year. I hate that kind of garbage.

It seems to be fairly clear that vaccination is not as effective against the Delta variant, but still far better than being unvaccinated versus the Delta Variant.

[Hawktawk]

Israel is being hammered with virus but hospitalizations and deaths are far lower. And I think they are only about 71% vaccinated as well

[RiverDog]

It seems to be fairly clear that vaccination is not as effective against the Delta variant, but still far better than being unvaccinated versus the Delta Variant.

We have to keep these vaccine effaces in perspective. Last year at this time, the hope was that we'd get a vaccine with an efficacy of at least 60% effectiveness. The CDC had said that they would approve one that had an efficacy of just 50%. The flu shot is only about 40-60% effective. No one ever dreamed that we'd develop vaccines with 95% efficacy, now we're wringing our hands because they've declined to 75%. From July of 2020:

Fauci said he hopes the vaccine will have an efficacy of at least 60%, meaning on average the vaccine reduces a person’s risk of a Covid-19 infection by 60%. “Obviously, we would like to see it much, much higher. But 60% is the standard that you do for the cutoff. That’s not unusual,” he said

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/27/dr-anth ... ccine.html

[Aseahawkfan]

We have to keep these vaccine effaces in perspective. Last year at this time, the hope was that we'd get a vaccine with an efficacy of at least 60% effectiveness. The CDC had said that they would approve one that had an efficacy of just 50%. The flu shot is only about 40-60% effective. No one ever dreamed that we'd develop vaccines with 95% efficacy, now we're wringing our hands because they've declined to 75%. From July of 2020:

Fauci said he hopes the vaccine will have an efficacy of at least 60%, meaning on average the vaccine reduces a person’s risk of a Covid-19 infection by 60%. “Obviously, we would like to see it much, much higher. But 60% is the standard that you do for the cutoff. That’s not unusual,” he said

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/27/dr-anth ... ccine.html

I just want to be sure they're holding up. Death rate per day is back to 1300 a day. That's no bueno. I want to make sure my parents and highly vulnerable people are getting clear information.

COVID19 is a terrible way to die. I would prefer my parents and older relatives of which I have many are given accurate info so they can plan accordingly.

[Hawktawk]

Wife and I and kid and his girlfriend are booked at clover island this weekend . I’m wondering if we should cancel

[Aseahawkfan]

Wife and I and kid and his girlfriend are booked at clover island this weekend . I’m wondering if we should cancel

Be careful. Mask up and distance around people you don't know.

[RiverDog]

Wife and I and kid and his girlfriend are booked at clover island this weekend . I’m wondering if we should cancel

If everyone in your party is vaccinated, I wouldn't worry about it. Get you some KN95 masks and wear them when you're around any kind of crowds.

[RiverDog]

I just want to be sure they're holding up. Death rate per day is back to 1300 a day. That's no bueno. I want to make sure my parents and highly vulnerable people are getting clear information.

COVID19 is a terrible way to die. I would prefer my parents and older relatives of which I have many are given accurate info so they can plan accordingly.

I hear what you're saying. I've been following our local health district on Facebook and complained to them about the way they are reporting new Covid case infections and vaccinations. They would use a bar graph to plot new cases then connect the peaks with a red line to show the trend. Since it takes several days for all the reports to come in, they were using incomplete data for their most recent days yet they were still connecting the peaks with the red line, which made it appear that infections had peaked and had started to come down. Their excuse was that they wanted to be completely transparent and report all data, complete and otherwise.

The other thing that they did was that they issued a report on the number of people 16+ that had received the vaccine. As we all know, the minimum age for a vaccine is 12, so it wasn't clear why they didn't include all eligible age groups so we could get an idea on what our overall hesitancy was.

I posted comments on both issues, got a very nice reply and to my amazement, they fixed the reports.

[RiverDog]

There is some apparent good news on the horizon. It would appear that infections are beginning to decline as some of the early hotspots in this current wave like Florida and Missouri seem to have peaked:

Covid-19 cases are falling in many of the original delta-variant hot spots in the U.S. That means the rest of the country could soon follow, dodging the mass hospitalizations and surging deaths seen recently in Florida and the Deep South.

Maybe.

The U.S. is recording more than 1,000 deaths a day, a count that has more than tripled in a month. But in Arkansas and Missouri, where the delta surge began, the seven-day average of cases is down 12% from the peak, according to U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. Florida and Louisiana -- the second phase of the U.S. delta wave -- are starting to see similar declines. Cases are climbing in other states, but the pace has slowed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... a099143f1e

They still don't know exactly why Delta has this 2 month shelf life, but it would be following a trend in other countries that experienced Delta before us, that infections rose sharply for two months then dropped just as quickly. This happened in India even though they had, and still have, a low vaccination rate, and it happened in the UK. Our current surge started in late June, so perhaps the worst has past.

[Hawktawk]

If we had contact tracing and antibody testing we might find delta has already infected most of the population in the states with the overwhelming number of cases asymptomatic . Just a theory based on the similar trajectory elsewhere within delta . It’s far from over . There are far more mutated variants popping up. And even with delta the peak is far higher than anything before . Spokane is hammered and I have a lot of friends up there including in the medical field who thought this was a joke for 16 months . It could get even worse . Depressing .

[RiverDog]

If we had contact tracing and antibody testing we might find delta has already infected most of the population in the states with the overwhelming number of cases asymptomatic . Just a theory based on the similar trajectory elsewhere within delta.

That's exactly what I'm suspecting. The Delta variant is so contagious that it is it's own worst enemy, like cattle that over graze a pasture. With no hosts to infect, it dies on the vine. It's just a theory, but it makes sense.

It’s far from over . There are far more mutated variants popping up. And even with delta the peak is far higher than anything before . Spokane is hammered and I have a lot of friends up there including in the medical field who thought this was a joke for 16 months . It could get even worse . Depressing .

Oh, I'm not suggesting that it's over. As a matter of fact, I suspect that we'll be dealing with this for several years to come. All I'm saying is that this current wave may be on the decline.

[RiverDog]

It (Israeli data on vaccine efficacy) wasn't a study. It was recorded data. Pure and simple. That data I hope is being well recorded here. How many vaccinated people are getting the virus and what effect is it having on them. Pure numbers, not 20 times or 5 times that. Pure numbers.

Here's another problem with the Israeli "pure numbers". The Israelis administered exclusively Pfizer's vaccine, of which some data is suggesting is quite a bit less effective against the Delta strain than Moderna. I'm not sure what the percentage of vaccines given by brand is in this country, but I'd guess that Moderna is near 30% of the total, enough to influence the data and make it more of an apples vs. oranges comparison.

It's hard to say how the next few months are going to pan out. Vaccination rates have nudged up slightly and there's some evidence suggesting that the Delta variant has begun to decline. Missouri, one of the first Delta hotspots, has seen a dramatic decrease in case rates recently despite the fact that their vaccination rate is well below the national average. On the other hand, we're getting into the fall, more people will be going back indoors, schools are resuming with in person learning, football stadiums will have fans in them, so who knows.

[Aseahawkfan]

Here's another problem with the Israeli "pure numbers". The Israelis administered exclusively Pfizer's vaccine, of which some data is suggesting is quite a bit less effective against the Delta strain than Moderna. I'm not sure what the percentage of vaccines given by brand is in this country, but I'd guess that Moderna is near 30% of the total, enough to influence the data and make it more of an apples vs. oranges comparison.

It's hard to say how the next few months are going to pan out. Vaccination rates have nudged up slightly and there's some evidence suggesting that the Delta variant has begun to decline. Missouri, one of the first Delta hotspots, has seen a dramatic decrease in case rates recently despite the fact that their vaccination rate is well below the national average. On the other hand, we're getting into the fall, more people will be going back indoors, schools are resuming with in person learning, football stadiums will have fans in them, so who knows.

Don't know why you keep putting "pure numbers" in parentheses other than to be annoying. All pure numbers means is absent statistical manipulation. It was just data. Data is more helpful than statistics if you know how to read data, which I do.

And if you want some statistical information how about the studies indicating that natural immunity is as effective as a vaccine as in getting the virus is equally as effective as taking a vaccine. That would indicate a drop would expected because it will sicken and kill the unvaccinated people who haven't boosted immunity with a vaccine, then drop off. Given how infectious the Delta Variant is, this will occur at a faster rate than the original virus. Now that governments have more information available, they are ready to stay open for the most part and let it do its business. Did you read those studies indicating so? They're all over if you look for them. There was no statistical difference in immunity from getting the virus versus taking a vaccine.

https://www.science.org/news/2021/08/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-vaccination-remains-vital

I've seen multiple studies supporting that natural immunity is as effective as a vaccine.

This pandemic is manageable now. Any further lockdowns would be just overly protective BS unless we get a much more lethal variation.

[RiverDog]

Don't know why you keep putting "pure numbers" in parentheses other than to be annoying. All pure numbers means is absent statistical manipulation. It was just data. Data is more helpful than statistics if you know how to read data, which I do.

Because pure numbers, or raw data, without being organized and put into a context are next to worthless. I can line up a bunch of raw numbers, say daily high temperatures, and unless it's categorized into various groupings, ie by month/day/time of day, and so on, are virtually meaningless. That's why I brought up the subject of vaccine brand, as the Israeli data was limited to just one particular vaccine. There has to be some sort of asterisk or footnote attached to it indicating that the information was incomplete as it applied to just the one vaccine. Otherwise the data can be misleading.

And please don't complain about me being annoying. Sort of like the pot calling the kettle black as you've doled out more than your fair share of insults both to me as well as others. But in the interest of harmony, I'll cease with the sarcasm.

And if you want some statistical information how about the studies indicating that natural immunity is as effective as a vaccine as in getting the virus is equally as effective as taking a vaccine. That would indicate a drop would expected because it will sicken and kill the unvaccinated people who haven't boosted immunity with a vaccine, then drop off. Given how infectious the Delta Variant is, this will occur at a faster rate than the original virus. Now that governments have more information available, they are ready to stay open for the most part and let it do its business. Did you read those studies indicating so? They're all over if you look for them. There was no statistical difference in immunity from getting the virus versus taking a vaccine.

https://www.science.org/news/2021/08/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-vaccination-remains-vital

I've seen multiple studies supporting that natural immunity is as effective as a vaccine.

I'm beginning to sound like a broken record. Any study that comes out of Israel is going to be flawed because it is examining just the Pfizer vaccine. It does not incorporate the other two vaccines that are currently approved for use in the United States. There's been other studies that indicates that Moderna's vaccine is substantially better at preventing infections vs. Delta than Pfizer, which represents 54%, barely half of the vaccines distributed in the US, with Moderna coming in at 43% and J&J at 6%. Any information you see coming out of Israel needs to be framed in the context of vaccine brand as they're only administering one vaccine.

https://en.as.com/en/2021/06/17/latest_ ... 76892.html

But I don't necessarily reject the premise. IMO the issue of natural immunity vs. vaccine induced immunity hasn't been studied nearly enough and not enough data has been collected to come to a definite conclusion one way or another. The disease and the vaccines to combat it are both very new, plus the virus through its mutations keeps moving the goal posts on us.

This pandemic is manageable now. Any further lockdowns would be just overly protective BS unless we get a much more lethal variation.

Agreed about the lockdowns, but I don't think that we're in a manageable situation yet, not when hospitals are having to ship patients hundreds of miles to find an open ICU bed. Nor should we be reckless or careless, like DeSantis and Abbott are doing in FL and TX.

[Hawktawk]

Just read where New Zealand had their first Covid death in 6 MONTHS!!! They went into lockdown a couple of weeks ago after discovering ONE case . Australia is locked down a couple of weeks into being unlocked with fines of 3700 and jail for violators . Here in America it’s the wild Wild West . We are wrapping up 3 days at clover inn in Kennewick . At least a third un masked spreadnecks with their chest pumped out . An hour ago myself my wife and her girlfriend were in a very small elevator in our masks and some un masked MF says hi there and squeezes in to ride 2 floors . All
I could do to hold my anger in . I hate these MF . America probably won’t lock down no matter how bad it gets but if they have to it will be on the people who will b#tch the most .

[RiverDog]

Just read where New Zealand had their first Covid death in 6 MONTHS!!! They went into lockdown a couple of weeks ago after discovering ONE case . Australia is locked down a couple of weeks into being unlocked with fines of 3700 and jail for violators . Here in America it’s the wild Wild West . We are wrapping up 3 days at clover inn in Kennewick . At least a third un masked spreadnecks with their chest pumped out . An hour ago myself my wife and her girlfriend were in a very small elevator in our masks and some un masked MF says hi there and squeezes in to ride 2 floors . All
I could do to hold my anger in . I hate these MF . America probably won’t lock down no matter how bad it gets but if they have to it will be on the people who will b#tch the most .

My suggestion is to get yourself some KN95 masks and wear them when you're around a crowd of maskless strangers. They cost about $1.00 per mask on Amazon. They will help protect you from acquiring the virus. That's one of the differences between now and when the pandemic first broke out in March of 2020. N95 masks were not widely available like they are now so you had to depend on others to protect you.

I agree with you regarding the non compliance with the mask mandates. It's really hit or miss. With a few exceptions, like Costco, they don't seem to have the cooperation of businesses like they did when the pandemic first broke out nearly 18 months ago. There are no monitors and no restrictions on how many can enter a store at one time. Even with those that were generally compliant the first time around are much less enthusiastic about it this time. There's a shelf life on mandates. They just can't keep slapping them on and off and expect the public to follow.

[Aseahawkfan]

This will be interesting. Even the past vaccine mandates did not allow the president to require private companies to mandate vaccines from what I recall reading. The government could do Federal employees and require them in public agencies like schools, but not sure the law allows the government to require private companies to do so. That might be a new test of the ability of government to mandate vaccines.

[RiverDog]

This will be interesting. Even the past vaccine mandates did not allow the president to require private companies to mandate vaccines from what I recall reading. The government could do Federal employees and require them in public agencies like schools, but not sure the law allows the government to require private companies to do so. That might be a new test of the ability of government to mandate vaccines.

The fact that the federal government is mandating vaccines gives private companies a lot of legal cover. Even the conservative Supreme Court has not stepped in on situations, such as mandates made by colleges and universities of their students and staff. Plus most are allowing for an out in the form of an alternative process, ie more testing, mask wearing, social distancing protocols, and so on, if a person truly doesn't want to get a poke. Plus now that the FDA has given full approval for the Pfizer vaccine, the most widely used of the 3 that were granted EUA and given that there's already been hundreds of millions of doses administered with very little adverse side effects, there's no longer a credible argument that the vaccines are "experimental". I do not see the legalities of vaccine mandates being a big influence on companies decisions to mandate them. There's been numerous challenges to vaccine mandates, the earliest and most prominent being Houston Methodist which occurred before Pfizer got full approval, and as of today, no court has thrown out a vaccine mandate.

IMO rather than the legal implications, the biggest problem companies big and small are having is that due to the labor shortage, they're worried about creating an even more dire situation for themselves if even a small percentage of their employees quit as a result of a vaccine mandate.

[Aseahawkfan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pp-nPZETLTo

Another excellent video from Medcram, my favorite source of COVID information. Breaks down comparative risk of COVID versus vaccines. It's not even a contest. Vaccine far safer than risking COVID.