Ukraine

[Hawktawk]

I am not a student of Russian history, but I know enough about Russia to know that a Russian dictator is one of the scariest and most evil people on the planet. They are not Kim Jong Un or a Chinese dictator. The Kim family is pretty evil and raised to be so, but they also know they don't have the power to do much but some violent act and then they are all done. The Chinese are very organized and like an orderly, controlled society, but are not suicidal.

But Russian leadership treats their people like animals. It is no accident the origin of the word slave is based on Slav, as in the Slavic people in Russia. https://www.etymonline.com/word/slave

I know Americans don't have much of an idea of this, but let's just say if Americans of West African descent who came over on the slave ships and Slavic people were to exchange stories of historical suffering, the Americans of African descent would start feeling bad for the Slavic peoples. They have been treated like literal garbage prior to Communism. You ever think about why they considered Communism and leaders like Stalin a step up from what they had before?

We've all heard the classic tales of military units in Russia being forced to fight or being shot by their officers.

I've talked to a Romanian before the fall of the U.S.S.R. He lived like garbage. He had one set of clothes washed once a week. If he didn't fulfill his compulsory military duty in Russia, he would have been jailed or killed. He said he hated it.

So if Putin is sick with cancer, still holding power because he has men who will do violence on his behalf to hold power, and Putin is going to die and doesn't care, that is quite scary. Joseph Stalin killed an estimated 9 million Russians during his regime and was not overthrown because of his absolute willingness to use extreme violence on his own people to keep them in line. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excess_mortality_in_the_Soviet_Union_under_Joseph_Stalin#:~:text=Snyder%20stated%20that%20Stalin%20deliberately,authorities%20are%20unreliable%20and%20incomplete.

So a dying, nothing to lose Russian dictator who wants to cement Russia's legacy as a powerful military and world power with nuclear weapons is a dangerous human. If Ukraine resists Russia and Putin is embarrassed, we'll either see a much more violent assault on Ukraine with higher casualties and maybe a nuclear attack.

As far as this idea that someone will take Putin out, I doubt it. Russian dictators surround themselves with violent people that will kill for them who have absolutely loyalty. It's why I knew Riverdog was wrong about Putin not attacking Ukraine. Russians don't saber rattle. They do what they say they're going to do and they don't care who it affects including the Russian people. Love of the Russian people doesn't often enter Russian's leaderships mind. Just ideas of power, prestige, and causing the world to fear them. It is no accident Vlad the Impaler came from that region. And Russian criminal organizations make the Mexican Cartels look kind.

If Putin is really sick and dying, that is damn scary to me. I'm not going to run and hide because I'll be out trying to help people if this thing goes wrong. But man, Putin's last act as Russian strongman because he is dying makes this situation more wide open than I expected. He probably doesn't care about holding power any longer, he just wants to have the world to know his power one last time before he dies. I hope he is not dying and still wants to hold power. Then he has no reason to go out with a bang.

My fear exactly . Fascinating reading your breakdowns of the Slavic people . To address your point about them caring less about human life than most ,Russia has apparently readied their most powerful non nuclear bombs for possible use . These are the equivalent of the MOAB mother of all bombs Trump ordered dropped in Afghanistan . It blew a crater the size of 3 football fields. They are transporting mobile units to vaporize their own dead soldiers. So much for a dignified transfer. I’ve seen reports some Russian troops were told they were mobilizing for drills , not a war . Yeah they really give a F about human life , NOT.

remain extremely concerned about a wounded animal in Putin facing military humiliation , financial ruin and possibly very ill.

[RiverDog]

I came across a good article that speaks to my assertation that the Russians may have bit off more than they can chew:

You have the power but you have to fight smart.’ — John W. Spencer

That’s retired Major John Spencer, chair of Urban Warfare Studies at West Point’s Modern War Institute, who took to Twitter on Saturday to directly speak to Ukraine’s citizens as skirmishes for control of the capital Kyiv intensified. Main Russian forces advanced closer to the city Saturday night after earlier airstrikes were reported and civilians were taking up arms to defend the city against the potential for battalions of Russian troops.

“The urban defense is hell for any soldier. It usually takes 5 attackers to 1 defender. Russians do not have the numbers. Turn Kyiv and any urban area leading to Kyiv into a porcupine,” wrote Spencer, who recommended that defenders of the city need to build thousands of obstacles in the streets, destroy bridges and create strongholds to attack the well-armed Russian military.

“If it is a street, you still need to use. Build a S pattern obstacle that still slows a vehicle down,” he writes.

The advice from the tactical expert comes as amid the third day of the Ukrainian invasion ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, with the aim of overthrowing Ukraine’s elected government and ending its alignment with the West.

The Wall Street Journal and others were reporting that Ukrainian forces, backed by thousands of volunteers regained control of Kyiv’s streets.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was asked to evacuate Kyiv at the behest of the U.S. government, turned down the offer and has urged citizens to take up arms.

Zelensky said in response: “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride,” according to a senior American intelligence official with direct knowledge of the conversation, who described Zelensky as upbeat. Zelensky, in a video address on the streets of Kyiv, urged citizens to keep fighting.

Some 18,000 rifles had been distributed to volunteers in the capital willing to fight, WSJ reported.

Spencer’s recommendations were drawing attention on Twitter, with hedge-fund manager Pershing Square Capital’s Bill Ackman retweeting the military expert’s messages on urban tactics in Kyiv, using the hashtag #StandWithUkraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ad ... d=msedgntp

I agree with Hawktalk. That Zelensky dude has balls of steel. He may become the 21st century's version of Winston Churchill.

[Hawktawk]

Putin has put his nuclear forces on high alert citing the sanctions . Nuclear blackmail
. We’re on a hair trigger .

[NorthHawk]

It wouldn't surprise me to see Putin use Theater nuclear weapons.
His goal is to take out Zelensky and his government and replace it with his own puppet.
One strike on Kyiv could effectively wipe out the existing gov't and leave it open for him to reach his goal.
What a mess.

[Hawktawk]

He has the MOAB style bomb capable of putting a 300 meter crater in the ground . He hasn’t used it yet . He’s absolutely getting his ass kicked in Ukraine . His soldiers are running out of ammunition in some areas and they are also running low on missiles and having to ration them. I read a generals analysis that said Putin is furious , expected zelenski to flee and the citizens to surrender or join forces with him . Instead they are getting sluiced with 4300 dead troops and pushing 200 tanks , a troop plane , a Chechnian General killed .

It would be a great story if Russia didn’t have nukes . I don’t think Putin is launching a battlefield nuke . If he does it he’s lighting them all up . He’s a dead man walking after this invasion debacle and massive financial hit to the olegarchs not to mention his pissed off citizens .

I’m praying for peace . Truly a chilling reality worse than any movie .

[NorthHawk]

He has the MOAB style bomb capable of putting a 300 meter crater in the ground . He hasn’t used it yet . He’s absolutely getting his ass kicked in Ukraine . His soldiers are running out of ammunition in some areas and they are also running low on missiles and having to ration them. I read a generals analysis that said Putin is furious , expected zelenski to flee and the citizens to surrender or join forces with him . Instead they are getting sluiced with 4300 dead troops and pushing 200 tanks , a troop plane , a Chechnian General killed .

It would be a great story if Russia didn’t have nukes . I don’t think Putin is launching a battlefield nuke . If he does it he’s lighting them all up . He’s a dead man walking after this invasion debacle and massive financial hit to the olegarchs not to mention his pissed off citizens .

I’m praying for peace . Truly a chilling reality worse than any movie .

Yah, it’s a scary time for sure. I hope we can look back at this in 10 years and be able to discuss what actually
went on, but I fear we’re closer than ever to disaster than we’ve been for more than 5 decades.

[Hawktawk]

Closest ever . If we can get this mans hand off the trigger it might be a wake up call for the world to figure some stuff out and live in peace . But this is doomsday clock a second from midnight .

[RiverDog]

It wouldn't surprise me to see Putin use Theater nuclear weapons. His goal is to take out Zelensky and his government and replace it with his own puppet. One strike on Kyiv could effectively wipe out the existing gov't and leave it open for him to reach his goal.
What a mess.

A scorched Earth policy? He'd be cutting off his nose to spite his face.

I don't think there's any doubt that Putin can topple the current government and put in place a puppet government without having to resort to using nukes. The problem for him is what happens after he gets rid of Zelensky. He's going to have major problems governing a populace that is overwhelmingly against them no matter what means he uses to gain control.

[Aseahawkfan]

A scorched Earth policy? He'd be cutting off his nose to spite his face.

I don't think there's any doubt that Putin can topple the current government and put in place a puppet government without having to resort to using nukes. The problem for him is what happens after he gets rid of Zelensky. He's going to have major problems governing a populace that is overwhelmingly against them no matter what means he uses to gain control.

I am wondering why you think Putin or Russian leadership cares? They didn't care when Crimea caused them to be sanctioned. They don't care now. They still sold oil and gas to Europe while invading. They have a natural gas pipeline to Germany. Not everyone is part of NATO and will not buy Russian gas and oil which is most of what they sell.

You have been alive for nearly 70 years now or maybe you reached 70. You have seen the Russians for most of your life. Why do you keep thinking they operate logically? They are a group of people that embraced Communism. Then even after Communism "fell", they continued to allow powerful former Communist Party leaders to rule their nation. They are from an extremely masculine and power hungry culture.

You keep talking about Putin like he's interested in sane choices after taking Crimea by force and invading Ukraine under the pretext of security when America and Europe has never threatened to invade him. Why do you keep using these sayings that try to make Putin into a rational man who cares about sanctions or what his oligarchs think?

I used to invest in BP, a company that owns part of Rosneft. Rosneft was run by a Russian Oligarch billionaire. Putin decided this Oligarch had done something wrong. He took all his money and assets for the Russian people and put the oligarch in jail. You want to read on how corrupt and messed up Russia is, read on Rosneft. European CEOs of BP (British Petroleum) still sitting on the board. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosneft

Putin runs Russian with absolute, unassailable power. If Putin wants to launch nukes, they will launch and no one will stop him or they will die whether a Russian Oligarch or a powerful member of the Russian government. The power is all with Putin. To oppose him is to invite death.

If Putin has made a decision to do something, he has planned it very carefully including any possible sanctions or reactions from political opponents. Those opponents are already dead or will be soon if they stand up to him. If Putin gets embarrassed in the Ukraine, he will not take it well and may launch nukes. There is no one in Russia to stop him from doing so. You need to accept that reality. Putin is Russia as far as he is concerned. I know of no one that can stop him from doing what he wants in Russia.

[RiverDog]

I am wondering why you think Putin or Russian leadership cares? They didn't care when Crimea caused them to be sanctioned. They don't care now. They still sold oil and gas to Europe while invading. They have a natural gas pipeline to Germany. Not everyone is part of NATO and will not buy Russian gas and oil which is most of what they sell.

You have been alive for nearly 70 years now or maybe you reached 70. You have seen the Russians for most of your life. Why do you keep thinking they operate logically? They are a group of people that embraced Communism. Then even after Communism "fell", they continued to allow powerful former Communist Party leaders to rule their nation. They are from an extremely masculine and power hungry culture.

You keep talking about Putin like he's interested in sane choices after taking Crimea by force and invading Ukraine under the pretext of security when America and Europe has never threatened to invade him. Why do you keep using these sayings that try to make Putin into a rational man who cares about sanctions or what his oligarchs think?

I used to invest in BP, a company that owns part of Rosneft. Rosneft was run by a Russian Oligarch billionaire. Putin decided this Oligarch had done something wrong. He took all his money and assets for the Russian people and put the oligarch in jail. You want to read on how corrupt and messed up Russia is, read on Rosneft. European CEOs of BP (British Petroleum) still sitting on the board. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosneft

Putin runs Russian with absolute, unassailable power. If Putin wants to launch nukes, they will launch and no one will stop him or they will die whether a Russian Oligarch or a powerful member of the Russian government. The power is all with Putin. To oppose him is to invite death.

If Putin has made a decision to do something, he has planned it very carefully including any possible sanctions or reactions from political opponents. Those opponents are already dead or will be soon if they stand up to him. If Putin gets embarrassed in the Ukraine, he will not take it well and may launch nukes. There is no one in Russia to stop him from doing so. You need to accept that reality. Putin is Russia as far as he is concerned. I know of no one that can stop him from doing what he wants in Russia.

It's not about whether or not they care. It's a matter of practicality. What do they gain by using nukes vs. conventional weapons?

We're not talking about simply leveling the downtown area. We're talking about turning a 50 mile radius of Kiev into a radioactive wasteland 10 times worse than Chernobyl, with the radioactive fallout likely to be carried to the east and over his homeland. Even a tactical nuclear weapon is 2 or 3 times the yield of what we dropped on Hiroshima. I don't see what use it would be for him or the Russians to go nuclear when they can achieve the same thing by using their overwhelmingly superior conventional weapons. Besides, even if he did nuke'em, he'd still be left with the same problem: How does he govern? Would dropping a nuke on the capital help him manage the rest of the populace better than it would had he used conventional weapons? And does he want to run the risk that one of the other countries might decide to respond in kind?

Since they acquired nuclear weapons in 1947, there's been multiple opportunities for Russia to use their nukes, but they've resisted. I don't see this situation as being any different than those they faced since the end of WW2, perhaps even less so as Ukraine is so close to their homeland.

I'm not completely discounting the possibility that things could go nuclear. I'm just saying that it would require Putin going completely mad, plus he'd need the cooperation of several other individuals in order to carry out such an attack. It's a very real possibility and it could happen, but IMO it's not very plausible.

And BTW, I've finished 67 laps around the sun.

[Aseahawkfan]

It's not about whether or not they care. It's a matter of practicality. What do they gain by using nukes vs. conventional weapons?

We're not talking about simply leveling the downtown area. We're talking about turning a 50 mile radius of Kiev into a radioactive wasteland 10 times worse than Chernobyl, with the radioactive fallout likely to be carried to the east and over his homeland. Even a tactical nuclear weapon is 2 or 3 times the yield of what we dropped on Hiroshima. I don't see what use it would be for him or the Russians to go nuclear when they can achieve the same thing by using their overwhelmingly superior conventional weapons. Besides, even if he did nuke'em, he'd still be left with the same problem: How does he govern? Would dropping a nuke on the capital help him manage the rest of the populace better than it would had he used conventional weapons? And does he want to run the risk that one of the other countries might decide to respond in kind?

Since they acquired nuclear weapons in 1947, there's been multiple opportunities for Russia to use their nukes, but they've resisted. I don't see this situation as being any different than those they faced since the end of WW2, perhaps even less so as Ukraine is so close to their homeland.

I'm not completely discounting the possibility that things could go nuclear. I'm just saying that it would require Putin going completely mad, plus he'd need the cooperation of several other individuals in order to carry out such an attack. It's a very real possibility and it could happen, but IMO it's not very plausible.

And BTW, I've finished 67 laps around the sun.

What did Putin gain by invading Ukraine? Obviously Putin is interested in something other than anything sensible. I think this is about his legacy. I don't think he will randomly use nukes without reason. But at this point, I could really see this guy nuking Ukraine if Russia is going to lose and be embarrassed.

Right now you are basically witnessing a madman dictator flexing his power possibly at the end of his life for no other reason than to glorify himself and his perceived idea of what Russia should be.

I'm not as freaked out as Hawktawk. But none of this makes much sense for Russia. It seems like a pure power play by Putin for his personal glorification. That means that we really don't know what Putin will do if he loses in Ukraine and can't sit back looking like the Russian strongman reveling in Russia's power and showing all Russians that he is the most powerful Russian leader since Stalin. It's almost better for the world and Ukrainians if Putin wins because who knows what this madman will do if the Ukrainians hold out and Zelensky gets to give some speech about beating Putin. I hope the lunatic Putin doesn't do something terrible, but he might. He really just might.

[Aseahawkfan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A088RkqCkQU

Putin has lost his fricking mind. The sad thing is this guy isn't a saber rattler. There is a non-zero chance Putin launches nukes. He wants to be part of history and this would make him a part of it like Hitler.

We get through a pandemic. Now we have the very real possibility of a nuclear war. Great way for the early part of the 21st century to go.

If this were any leader other Vladimir Putin, the nuclear threat would be saber rattling to me like when Iran or North Korea make ludicrous threats. But Putin does not make threats, he makes promises he will keep if his criteria for firing are met. He will launch nuclear weapons if he feels it make him look strong.

[Hawktawk]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A088RkqCkQU

Putin has lost his fricking mind. The sad thing is this guy isn't a saber rattler. There is a non-zero chance Putin launches nukes. He wants to be part of history and this would make him a part of it like Hitler.

We get through a pandemic. Now we have the very real possibility of a nuclear war. Great way for the early part of the 21st century to go.

If this were any leader other Vladimir Putin, the nuclear threat would be saber rattling to me like when Iran or North Korea make ludicrous threats. But Putin does not make threats, he makes promises he will keep if his criteria for firing are met. He will launch nuclear weapons if he feels it make him look strong.

As opposed to my friend RD I don’t think Putin can take Ukraine at this point . His military is faltering , surrendering , running out of fuel , ammunition and missiles. And Asea at a minimum I disagree he planned everything well here . This was supposed to be a 1-4 day war and here we are and they have achieved none of their objectives and suffered mass casualties .
I’m not freaking out per se , going about my life but savoring every moment .I’m also making a few preparations to survive if we aren’t ground zero . Macron had some disturbing observation about Putin during their meeting saying he looked and sounded different , that he kept repeating himself . I hope these talks tomorrow go well. This really needs to calm down .

[Aseahawkfan]

As opposed to my friend RD I don’t think Putin can take Ukraine at this point . His military is faltering , surrendering , running out of fuel , ammunition and missiles. And Asea at a minimum I disagree he planned everything well here . This was supposed to be a 1-4 day war and here we are and they have achieved none of their objectives and suffered mass casualties .
I’m not freaking out per se , going about my life but savoring every moment .I’m also making a few preparations to survive if we aren’t ground zero . Macron had some disturbing observation about Putin during their meeting saying he looked and sounded different , that he kept repeating himself . I hope these talks tomorrow go well. This really needs to calm down .

Putin might set Zelensky up for kill him tomorrow.

[RiverDog]

As opposed to my friend RD I don’t think Putin can take Ukraine at this point . His military is faltering , surrendering , running out of fuel , ammunition and missiles. And Asea at a minimum I disagree he planned everything well here . This was supposed to be a 1-4 day war and here we are and they have achieved none of their objectives and suffered mass casualties .
I’m not freaking out per se , going about my life but savoring every moment .I’m also making a few preparations to survive if we aren’t ground zero . Macron had some disturbing observation about Putin during their meeting saying he looked and sounded different , that he kept repeating himself . I hope these talks tomorrow go well. This really needs to calm down .

Putin still has a lot more troops and arms to bring into the fray. There's no way that the Ukrainian government will be able to survive a war of attrition. But I do agree that it isn't going as the Russians had hoped.

But as I said, the real challenge for him isn't going to be conquering Ukraine, it's going to be occupying and governing it. I can't see this working out well for the Russians.

I still don't think that sanctions is going to cause him to concede, but I will say that they've put together an impressive array of them.

Gosh, maybe I ought to sue USA Today for plagiarism:

Modern day Winston Churchill': What to know about Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/mo ... d=msedgntp

Earlier in the thread, I called Zelensky a "21st century Winston Churchill".

[I-5]

Putin has already lost. He just needs to figure out how he wants to go down. In order to military take Ukraine, he's going to have to kill millions of Ukrainians who are literally throwing themselves at tanks and other vehicles rather than give up their land. I think things were too easy for Putin taking Crimea that he somehow must have believed his own fantasy that Ukrainians would be throwing flowers at his army as he takes Kyiv back from what he sees as a traitor government. Unfortunately, the narrative isn't fitting reality, and from what I've seen in multiple videos, the russian military does not look like they want to be there, while on the other side, the Ukrainians are full committed to fighting to the death, and seem to know how to take out tanks and armored vehicles by attacking them from behind as they pass by.

Will he actually use the nuclear option or is it saber-rattling? I've heard both, so it's hard to say.

[RiverDog]

Putin has already lost. He just needs to figure out how he wants to go down. In order to military take Ukraine, he's going to have to kill millions of Ukrainians who are literally throwing themselves at tanks and other vehicles rather than give up their land. I think things were too easy for Putin taking Crimea that he somehow must have believed his own fantasy that Ukrainians would be throwing flowers at his army as he takes Kyiv back from what he sees as a traitor government. Unfortunately, the narrative isn't fitting reality, and from what I've seen in multiple videos, the russian military does not look like they want to be there, while on the other side, the Ukrainians are full committed to fighting to the death, and seem to know how to take out tanks and armored vehicles by attacking them from behind as they pass by.

Will he actually use the nuclear option or is it saber-rattling? I've heard both, so it's hard to say.

It's not random knowledge that the Ukrainians have acquired that has allowed them to learn how to take out tanks and armored vehicles. You can bet your bottom dollar that we have CIA operatives in the country actively coaching them on tactics just as we did in Afghanistan.

I wouldn't say that Putin has already lost, but it's definitely not going near to his plan for the reasons you state. The momentum is definitely with the Ukrainians as they are getting an unexpectedly large amount of support from around the world. Even Russia's allies are hesitating to back them.

I might have to change my stance on sanctions. Most of the western world is uniting against Putin. I saw where Germany reversed their previous position and will now send arms to Ukraine. Half of all of Russia's assets are now frozen. Their currency has taken a huge hit. Private companies big and small are joining the fight. Every time I turn on the TV I see another report, like FedEx isn't going to ship anything in or out of Russia or bars refusing to stock Russian vodka. Rallies are being held all around the world in support of the Ukrainians. Russian troop morale is said to be very low. Their economy is tanking and it's going to create a huge internal problem for Putin if he persists.

The problem now is Putin's ego. Can he admit that he made a mistake and pull back? Or will it be damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead? He has to understand that he's not going to be able to govern a country with slightly more people than California and nearly as much area as Texas if he doesn't have at least some support amongst the populace.

If they can find a way for him to save face, give the dog a bone, the crisis might be averted. At least there's some hope where before it looked like a near certainty that he'd get his way.

[RiverDog]

It looks like Putin has decided to up the ante as he's pushing more of his military might into Ukraine:

Huge Russian convoy approaches Kyiv as fears of all-out assault on the city grow

Russia appears to be advancing in its invasion of Ukraine with satellite imagery indicating that a huge convoy — some 40 miles (65 kilometers) long — of Russian military vehicles is heading toward Ukraine's capital of Kyiv.

Teneo analysts said Monday that "the movement of Russian military forces suggests preparations for new, likely heavier, military action against the capital Kyiv and other key cities in the coming days."

In some parts of the convoy the vehicles are traveling three or four abreast on the road, although in other images the vehicles are seen further apart, in single file. The distance along the road is approximately 40 miles.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hu ... PH2DZl5Drk

[NorthHawk]

The problem with Putin according to one source is he's getting fed what he wants to hear and not the truth or what he needs to hear.
From a military perspective, it can cause disaster.
It's still not going to end well for the Ukrainians though. Russia will eventually get its act together and it will be over.

Just read your post, RD and it would seem that the major cities will be leveled over the next few days/weeks.

[RiverDog]

The problem with Putin according to one source is he's getting fed what he wants to hear and not the truth or what he needs to hear. From a military perspective, it can cause disaster.

It's still not going to end well for the Ukrainians though. Russia will eventually get its act together and it will be over.

Just read your post, RD and it would seem that the major cities will be leveled over the next few days/weeks.

Up till now, the Russians have been using smaller units with more mobile, less heavily armored vehicles that the Ukrainians have been able to repel. Now they're moving a lot more and a lot heavier hardware onto the battlefield.

[I-5]

The problem now is Putin's ego. Can he admit that he made a mistake and pull back? Or will it be damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead? He has to understand that he's not going to be able to govern a country with slightly more people than California and nearly as much area as Texas if he doesn't have at least some support amongst the populace.

If they can find a way for him to save face, give the dog a bone, the crisis might be averted. At least there's some hope where before it looked like a near certainty that he'd get his way.

We all know the answer to the question of can he admit he made a mistake? The answer is no. I'm hoping along with you that one of his few allies (like China) can talk him off the ledge and find a way for him to 'save face' as you say. At some point, China will have to speak up much much louder against the aggression that goes against their stated stance.

When I say Putin already lost, I mean that he will never have the glory he fantasized about with Ukrainians of Kiev celebrating his victory over the 'junta' of Zelensky's administration. He has cemented his place as a despot in world history no matter what he does now. So yes, he can conquer Ukraine, but at the cost of millions of civilian deaths.

How much longer can the rest of Russia suffer with the economy tanking the way it is? Will the Russian people and his inner circle just allow Putin run it all the way into the ground?

[RiverDog]

We all know the answer to the question of can he admit he made a mistake? The answer is no. I'm hoping along with you that one of his few allies (like China) can talk him off the ledge and find a way for him to 'save face' as you say. At some point, China will have to speak up much much louder against the aggression that goes against their stated stance.

When I say Putin already lost, I mean that he will never have the glory he fantasized about with Ukrainians of Kiev celebrating his victory over the 'junta' of Zelensky's administration. He has cemented his place as a despot in world history no matter what he does now. So yes, he can conquer Ukraine, but at the cost of millions of civilian deaths.

How much longer can the rest of Russia suffer with the economy tanking the way it is? Will the Russian people and his inner circle just allow Putin run it all the way into the ground?

It depends on Putin's mental state. If he's truly gone off the rails and will use anything at his disposal to neutralize Ukraine, including nukes, then we have a real problem. But if he can still be reasoned with, we might be able to bring him back from the brink.

The key to a diplomatic solution will be to give him something to save face, some sort of a prize for him to be able to justify his actions. Perhaps the Ukrainian government can pledge not to seek NATO membership for a limited period of time, say 10 years. It's a strategy that Kennedy used to defuse the Cuban missile crisis by agreeing to dismantle missiles we had in Turkey...missiles that were obsolete and that we had already decided to remove...and a pledge not to invade Cuba, something that prior to the crisis, that we weren't contemplating anyway. Give him an out.

[Aseahawkfan]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/world-war-iii-already-184545712.html

Interesting read by a Russia Expert. I think she is right. Putin and Russia have never forgiven us for defeating the U.S.S.R. They have been engaged in an information war with America for decades seeking to undermine and divide us for ages infesting both political parties with antigovernment and anti-American rhetoric for ages whether dividing us along racial lines or dividing us along political lines, we see massive disinformation constantly hitting us with the intent to divide and create conflict in America. The major news outlets push this. The politicians push it. We are constantly bombarded with divisive rhetoric from many sources. The more divided and weakened we become, the more powerful places like Russia and China become. You notice they do a great deal to keep social media out of their nations. Both China and Russia are masters of controlling what their people are able to read and watch.

America is wide open for information warfare operations. They've been seeding the waters for division for decades with information warfare operations.

And the fact America can't find leaders to unite them against this threat is pretty terrible.

[Aseahawkfan]

Oil just shot up to 104.47 a barrel and climbing.

Now up to 106 a barrel. My goodness. This is going to get ugly.

Now up to 108 a barrel.

[I-5]

The key to a diplomatic solution will be to give him something to save face, some sort of a prize for him to be able to justify his actions. Perhaps the Ukrainian government can pledge not to seek NATO membership for a limited period of time, say 10 years. It's a strategy that Kennedy used to defuse the Cuban missile crisis by agreeing to dismantle missiles we had in Turkey...missiles that were obsolete and that we had already decided to remove...and a pledge not to invade Cuba, something that prior to the crisis, that we weren't contemplating anyway. Give him an out.

Sorry to say this, but I don't think saving face is even a thing at this point. He's not much different than those who were tried at the Nuremberg trial, based on the reports of cluster bombs used on high density civilian targets, as well as using vacuum bombs not allowed by the Geneva convention. It's scary to think we are on the precipice of WW3, if not already in it.

[Hawktawk]

It’s truly ominous . We have publicly stated we have not changed the status of our weapons . Asked if Americans should be worried about nuclear war Biden said “ no “ but our doomsday plane took off . There is a report that Putin has sent his family to an underground city in Siberia . Every simulation I’ve seen has Russia going first . If cooler heads prevail of someone seizes power I think things are fine . I’ve heard the Olegarchs are extremely pissed. The generals looked stunned when Putin ordered the alert . Hopefully if he tries something there is some check and balance . But I have sat and watched him build a nuclear Arsenal for 20 years . Recently he surfaced 3 subs through the ice not far from Alaska . Nobody is giving Putin anything right now . He’s cluster bombing and using thermobaric weapons , committing war crimes . He does not give a F. I’m really praying for peace right now . I said years ago on this forum he’s the most evil man on the planet . Really sad to be right . At this point I believe he is given over to evil , satan .

[Aseahawkfan]

It’s truly ominous . We have publicly stated we have not changed the status of our weapons . Asked if Americans should be worried about nuclear war Biden said “ no “ but our doomsday plane took off . There is a report that Putin has sent his family to an underground city in Siberia . Every simulation I’ve seen has Russia going first . If cooler heads prevail of someone seizes power I think things are fine . I’ve heard the Olegarchs are extremely pissed. The generals looked stunned when Putin ordered the alert . Hopefully if he tries something there is some check and balance . But I have sat and watched him build a nuclear Arsenal for 20 years . Recently he surfaced 3 subs through the ice not far from Alaska . Nobody is giving Putin anything right now . He’s cluster bombing and using thermobaric weapons , committing war crimes . He does not give a F. I’m really praying for peace right now . I said years ago on this forum he’s the most evil man on the planet . Really sad to be right . At this point I believe he is given over to evil , satan .

How would Putin's legacy look as the man who destroyed America with nuclear weapons even if Russia is similarly destroyed? His legacy would be forever in history as the most insane of the Russian strongman, yet he would rise even above Hitler in history.

I was wrong about Russian being small potatoes. You did say Trump was the most evil man. Putin is clearly more evil and dangerous than Trump by a good measure. I did not think he was this insane and willing to go to this level to secure his legacy. I really thought Putin was an evil Russian dictator, but not an insane one willing to destroy himself, the United States, and burn the world just to cement his place in history.

[I-5]

That's the question...does Russia have a check and balance system? I felt confident that as unhinged as Trump could sound, I never for one moment thought he had the power to push the button because of the checks and balances. I have no idea about Russia. Who would dare contradict Putin's order? The things he's doing in Ukraine violating Geneva conventions show he doesn't give a $# % about rules at this point.

[Aseahawkfan]

That's the question...does Russia have a check and balance system? I felt confident that as unhinged as Trump could sound, I never for one moment thought he had the power to push the button because of the checks and balances. I have no idea about Russia. Who would dare contradict Putin's order? The things he's doing in Ukraine violating Geneva conventions show he doesn't give a $# % about rules at this point.

No one. Russian dictators are a different breed than any other dictator in history. They hold absolute power. They are paranoid and surround themselves with absolutely loyal people who kill on their behalf. They kill their enemies before they grow in power enough to challenge them. Even to threaten a Russian dictator at any point is to invite death. That is why Stalin was able to kill 9 million or more of his own people and no one ever assassinated to deposed him. Even after he died, they built a statute in his name.

Russian dictators are the most dangerous and evil dictators on the planet. They have no checks and balances. If he gives the order to launch nuclear weapons, his military will do it. He already has people in place absolutely loyal to him who will kill anyone that tries to stop him.

The only possibility that anyone could stop Putin is one of his most loyal people suddenly turning on him, a total surprise. But even then I'm not sure killing him would stop his next in command from completing his orders.

I am usually very calm and disregarding of most of these scum. I literally could not sleep well the entire weekend because of this. Putin is a real threat to the world, a real threat to start a nuclear war, and I don't know what he's doing right now. It seems like he's at the end of his life and has decided some now or never scenario for him to secure Russian power in the way he wants it.

[c_hawkbob]

I was disappointed in Biden's speech last night as it pertains to Ukraine. I understand not wanting to put boots on the ground but I think we should establish and enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine to protect them from Russian Air assaults. As far as that goes I'd like it even better if we were providing air support to Ukrainian troops, we could decimate that military convoy in short order.

I understand that this would be "provoking" Russia but I think the path their headed on right now will lead to the same place we'd be provoking them to, this just will make a longer more drawn out hell for the people of Ukraine. we keep saying that we'll "defend every inch" of NATO countries but I think when Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons (remember; they were the world third largest Nuclear Power at the dissolution of the soviet Union) in 96 they bought themselves that same right to protection from the west.

I think we need to be doing more.

[I-5]

I was disappointed in Biden's speech last night as it pertains to Ukraine. I understand not wanting to put boots on the ground but I think we should establish and enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine to protect them from Russian Air assaults. As far as that goes I'd like it even better if we were providing air support to Ukrainian troops, we could decimate that military convoy in short order.

I understand that this would be "provoking" Russia but I think the path their headed on right now will lead to the same place we'd be provoking them to, this just will make a longer more drawn out hell for the people of Ukraine. we keep saying that we'll "defend every inch" of NATO countries but I think when Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons (remember; they were the world third largest Nuclear Power at the dissolution of the soviet Union) in 96 they bought themselves that same right to protection from the west.

I think we need to be doing more.

I think by 'we' you mean NATO not the US, right? I think it's very very tricky because any direct action by either the US, NATO, or another foreign nation inside Ukraine gives Russia another excuse to escalate. Yeah, I know they're already breaking all kinds of international rules of war convention, but it's throwing gas on a fire. So far, the Ukrainians are doing an incredible job protecting their country, but if Putin starts killing more civilians, something has to happen....the world can't just let that happen. It's very scary.

[c_hawkbob]

Yes by "us" I mean NATO and the west in general, but it is up to us (US) to take the lead. I wish Biden had at least broached the issue, set the table for a more defensive stand of Ukraine by the west. And it's not just throwing gas on the fire, it's saving untold lives.

[I-5]

I understand what you're saying, and I agree to a point. But I think it also means the beginning of WW3, which could be the end of us all. There are no good answers when you're dealing with a madman who doesn't care about his own people.

[c_hawkbob]

I don't agree with "the end of us all". I don't think even Putin would risk the nuclear option.

[I-5]

I sincerely hope you are right. I would have said the same, but I don't know if I trust him not to push the button at this point. I really hope I'm wrong about him.

[RiverDog]

I was disappointed in Biden's speech last night as it pertains to Ukraine. I understand not wanting to put boots on the ground but I think we should establish and enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine to protect them from Russian Air assaults. As far as that goes I'd like it even better if we were providing air support to Ukrainian troops, we could decimate that military convoy in short order.

I understand that this would be "provoking" Russia but I think the path their headed on right now will lead to the same place we'd be provoking them to, this just will make a longer more drawn out hell for the people of Ukraine. we keep saying that we'll "defend every inch" of NATO countries but I think when Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons (remember; they were the world third largest Nuclear Power at the dissolution of the soviet Union) in 96 they bought themselves that same right to protection from the west.

I think we need to be doing more.

If NATO is on board with that strategy, then I'd support it. But this has to be their call. They're the ones closest to the battlefield and at the most risk.

[RiverDog]

With regards to the checks and balances and overall risk of a nuclear war breaking out, here's an interesting article that describes the threat:

Chatham House analyst Dr Lewis thinks the nuclear threat is serious. But not the widely-feared all-out exchange of ballistic missiles. At least, not at first.

Instead, Putin may be tempted to use smaller “tactical” nuclear warheads against Ukraine as drastic proof of the reality of his threat.

Dr Lewis says the West would have an early indication of this being about to happen. “Any movement to ready and deploy Russian nuclear weapons would be seen and monitored by US and others’ satellites, which can see through cloud cover and at night,” she writes. These would then be loaded in bombers, artillery or warships. Specific command-and-control networks would have to be activated.

That is the first point of extreme escalation risk. “NATO countries may decide to intervene to prevent launch by bombing storage sites and missile deployment sites in advance,” Dr Lewis warns.

“It is always possible – although assumed to be highly unlikely – that Putin may decide to launch a long-range ballistic missile attack against the US, but he knows – as do all his officials – that this would be the end of Russia.”

https://www.news.com.au/technology/inno ... 2aa38a11c5

Here's another article that outlines the command and control structure of the Russian ballistic missile forces:

The doctrine also sets out the conditions which would need to be met in order for the use of nuclear weapons to be on the table;

The conditions specifying the possibility of nuclear weapons use by the Russian Federation are as follows:

a) arrival of reliable data on a launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territory of the Russian Federation and/or its allies;

b) use of nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction by an adversary against the Russian Federation and/or its allies;

c) attack by adversary against critical governmental or military sites of the Russian Federation, disruption of which would undermine nuclear forces response actions;

d) aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.

Presumably an order could still be issued by the President (Putin) even if these conditions were not met, but it does provide a suitably motivated General Staff with a yardstick as to whether such an order would be rational or irrational.

https://politics.stackexchange.com/ques ... -in-russia

Bottom line is that there is a very low risk of a nuclear Pearl Harbor, as Hawktalk put it. We would know when he is going from saber rattling to actively preparing for nuclear war. We would have some notice.

Although there aren't as many checks and balances as exists in our system, there is still some human cooperation that Putin would need if he arbitrarily decided to push the button.

[I-5]

Riv, I read up on it last night, too, and yes there is a protocol before a Russian nuke could be launched. That protocol prevented a warhead from being launched in 1995 after then President Yeltsin had activated it, when someone in the chain realized that what they thought was a US missile attack was actually a Finnish/US scientific venture that involved a rocket becoming airborne to study the Aurora Borealis. The scientists had given notice to 30 countries including Russia, but the message had slipped through. Thank goodness someone verified that the missile which looked a lot like a trident sub missile was not a warhead and reversed the launch process.

Having said that, in this case if Putin decided he wanted to go through with a launch, I think you're right it would be a tactical nuke, but even that is terrifying because of the potential chain reaction of other decisions it would cause. There is no winner in that game.

[RiverDog]

Having said that, in this case if Putin decided he wanted to go through with a launch, I think you're right it would be a tactical nuke, but even that is terrifying because of the potential chain reaction of other decisions it would cause. There is no winner in that game.

Putin still has a few more arrows in his quiver that he could use before he went nuclear. He has a very large arsenal of chemical and biological weapons at his disposal. However, using those would likely set off a NATO barrage almost as intense as would occur if he touched off a nuke. And you're right, there would be no winner. Any use of a WMD would plunge the world into a very deep and lasting economic depression, not to mention the indiscriminate loss of human life.

China has been distancing itself from Russia over the past few days and has now offered to broker a cease fire agreement:

China denounced Russia’s war in Ukraine Tuesday and said it would help negotiate a ceasefire as cracks in relations between the two Asian superpowers deepened.

Beijing was “extremely concerned about the harm to civilians” in the invasion and “Ukraine … looks forward to China playing a role in realizing a ceasefire,” the authoritarian government said in a statement after a call between diplomats from both nations, according to the Financial Times.

https://nypost.com/2022/03/02/china-off ... h-ukraine/

If China breaks ranks, Putin will be completely isolated. If there's one country that could get Putin to pull back, it's China.

[I-5]

I do agree about China having a unique position to potentially create a ceasefire...which would do a lot for their countries' reputation.