Russell Wilson's Accuracy Issues

[RiverDog]

I quick glance at Russell's stat line reveals an alarming fact: His completion percentage is way down, to 57.4%.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/ ... ell-Wilson

I'm sure that our resident Russell apologist Anthony would be quick to point out that a lot of his incompletions are the result of protection break downs, but even in the past couple of years in which he's had to endure some of the league's worst protection, including last season when he battled injuries for much of the year, he's still managed to keep his percentage up in the mid and upper 60% range.

In addition to the story that the stat line is telling us, the infamous eye test confirms the data. Russell's missed some wide open receivers even when he was under zero pressure and even when he's been throwing to receivers that he's worked with a lot, one in particular that he's to for his entire professional career. Last Sunday, he missed a wide open Doug Baldwin for what would have been a 30+ yard gain.

Without reviewing very much of the game reruns, it seems to me that he's been missing high or long. Additionally, this past offseason, we've been treated to these stories about Russell's workout and diet regiment, where he lost weight by consuming 5,000 calories a day and that he was in such fantastic shape. Could it be that his efforts to get into better shape has adversely impacted his throwing mechanics?

[burrrton]

Perhaps, but I'm going to play pollyanna and go with "science of small numbers" as the over-arching explanation, noting:

1. Small sample size
2. Stretches of brilliance
3. Improving by the week

Yeah, there's a solid counter-argument to each of those, but I prefer to think past results will be a better indicator of future performance than 3 games with a train wreck of an o-line.

We'll see in the coming weeks.

[NorthHawk]

I agree with Burrrton about small sample size, but we should look at this again in 3 weeks or at the half way point.
I've noticed that he often throws a high ball to wide open receivers, so that's not something new for me. Misses and overthrows are, though.

[c_hawkbob]

Perhaps, but I'm going to play pollyanna and go with "science of small numbers" as the over-arching explanation, noting:

1. Small sample size
2. Stretches of brilliance
3. Improving by the week

Yeah, there's a solid counter-argument to each of those, but I prefer to think past results will be a better indicator of future performance than 3 games with a train wreck of an o-line.

We'll see in the coming weeks.

All of this, plus an unusual number of dropped passes that could have been not just huge plays in and of themselves but drive extenders as well (thus creating more opportunities to better the stat line).

And yes I'll admit I'm an unapologetic Wilson fan. I used to make similar arguments in defense of Hass.

[mykc14]

I have been willing to defend RW as much as anybody else and there are other contributing factors but he hasn't been as accurate this season so far. He has missed open receivers more this year than in years past. I am not worried about it at all, as of yet, but it is something to keep an eye on. At the same time he has had to deal with an abnormally high number of drops so I don't see any reason why his percentage won't get back up into the mid 60's. With that being said it is still a far cry from the 70% that PC predicted a few years ago. I would love to see what he could do with a good OL and running game...

[Hawktawk]

Footsteps
Russ is the most courageous small qb I've ever seen. He has taken an absolute beating throughout his career. Still when he came into the league he was deadly with a clean pocket. Now it seems to be where he is most inaccurate, like he doesn't know how to act without pressure and continues to expect it causing hurried inaccurate throws..

To his credit he pulled it together in the second half. The game reminded me of the home game vs AZ last year where Russ was dreadful for most of 3 quarters then put up 3 TD's in the 4th quarter to fall just short.
The Anthonys of the world will say he did enough to win but the points, field position and time of possession left on the field in the first half due to horrible inaccurate throws set the team up for failure.

I hope against hope this isn't the year the chariot turns into a pumpkin.
Its such a fine line between winning and losing, between being elite and just another guy. Ask Flacco and Newton both of whom were yanked last weekend.
We don't have it the worst for sure. It just isn't quite what it was.

[Aseahawkfan]

Sorry, until the O-line is fixed I can't put much on Russell. He's not perfect and makes mistakes. But we know for certain with a solid run game and even half-way decent O-line play, he can lead us to wins.

I'm still of the mind Cable has had his chance with his O-line philosophy and talent acquisition and development. it's time to try something else with the O-line and see if we can salvage Russ's best years.

[RiverDog]

The sample size is 21% of Russell's career high 546 attempts last season, so I'm going to argue that 57.4% qualifies as a statistically significant number.

I agree that he's had more drops than usual this season. But he's 7% below his career numbers. 7% of 115 attempts would mean that he would have had to suffered from 8 more drops than he's had in past seasons if they were to represent the sole reason for this decline. I could easily accept a couple percentage decline due to drops, but not 7%. Something else, in addition to an increase in drops, is at work.

One thing that we can all agree on is that his protection has been horrid, but unfortunately, it's a constant that hasn't varied much over the past couple of seasons.

I did not start the thread to beat up on Russell. To the contrary, I think it's important to note that he has yet to throw an interception and he did play quite a bit better in the 2nd half of the Titan's game. Nevertheless, it's almost undeniable that he's suffered some accuracy issues in the first 3 games, that it has had an effect on the outcome of those games, and I am asking for opinions as to a cause.

[burrrton]

The sample size is 21% of Russell's career high 546 attempts last season, so I'm going to argue that 57.4% qualifies as a statistically significant number.

I'm just saying we're 3 games into the season, and the problems we all feared coming in have come to pass, and those problems go a *long* way toward explaining the inaccuracy.

It's not ridiculous to be concerned, but the season has only just begun. Let's wait for a bigger pattern to emerge before we get carried away.

[Hawktawk]

Im all about hoping its an abnormality, a blip on the radar screen. But Wilson has had some of the worst ugliest misses of his career so far this season including a dreadful first half vs Tenn.

Then to be fair the second half he was as good as ever.
Something's been off though, no doubt...

[RiverDog]

I'm just saying we're 3 games into the season, and the problems we all feared coming in have come to pass, and those problems go a *long* way toward explaining the inaccuracy.

It's not ridiculous to be concerned, but the season has only just begun. Let's wait for a bigger pattern to emerge before we get carried away.

I understand what you're saying, but my point is that regardless of cause, a three game stretch at the beginning of the season with no game over 60% and a cumulative average that's 7-8% lower than the 65% target Pete himself has said is required for this offense to thrive should be raising flags, that if you're a player or coach, you don't want to let the problem simply work itself out and wait for a bigger pattern to emerge before taking action, you need to identify the cause and try to address it, which is what I'm doing with this thread. At 1-2 in a 16 game season, it's not too late to address it but we don't want to wait much longer or else we'll dig ourselves too deep of a hole to get out of like we did the past two seasons.

I think that one possible reason for the performance drop could be that Russell's changed the dynamics of his body with his workout routine over the offseason. He doesn't have the same touch on some of his intermediate range passes. The ball appears to me to be coming out with a tad bit more velocity and/or a little bit higher trajectory.

[Hawk Sista]

I agree with Burrrton and all three of his points - plus the many significant drops. One simply must also factor in the times he purposefully chucked it out of bounds to avoid the sack.

Yes, he’s had some misfires as have others including Brady, Rogers, Big Ben & Ryan. If we are in week 12 and we see these percentages, then we have something to talk about & it still would likely have to include sack saving chucks, drops (forTDs, big chunks & 1st downs) and running for his life. The “footsteps “ and “ghosts” comments are funny to me. He’s hearing footsteps because there are size 14 cleats running his ass down. Did you see that 4th down zinger to Lockett with a big fatty wrapped around his ankles (that were spatted up from an earlier hit)? I don’t think accuracy is his issue, at least long-term.

I understand the concern and the discussion. He was 60+% in that wreck of a hoe opener against Miami last year, so when discussing our team’s woes, he cannot go unscathed. And yet let’s all remember that OUR starting QB is 2nd all-time in passer rating (all-time means...in the history of the league). That is with the last 3 games factored in.

[Irish Greg 2.0]

Wilson said today he thinks the overthrows vs. Tennessee were related to the hot weather...

Because the ball was carrying further in the heat.

[Aseahawkfan]

Wilson said today he thinks the overthrows vs. Tennessee were related to the hot weather...

Because the ball was carrying further in the heat.

The Hot Air Balloon Theory.

[RiverDog]

I agree with Burrrton and all three of his points - plus the many significant drops. One simply must also factor in the times he purposefully chucked it out of bounds to avoid the sack.

Yes, he’s had some misfires as have others including Brady, Rogers, Big Ben & Ryan. If we are in week 12 and we see these percentages, then we have something to talk about & it still would likely have to include sack saving chucks, drops (forTDs, big chunks & 1st downs) and running for his life. The “footsteps “ and “ghosts” comments are funny to me. He’s hearing footsteps because there are size 14 cleats running his ass down. Did you see that 4th down zinger to Lockett with a big fatty wrapped around his ankles (that were spatted up from an earlier hit)? I don’t think accuracy is his issue, at least long-term.

I understand the concern and the discussion. He was 60+% in that wreck of a hoe opener against Miami last year, so when discussing our team’s woes, he cannot go unscathed. And yet let’s all remember that OUR starting QB is 2nd all-time in passer rating (all-time means...in the history of the league). That is with the last 3 games factored in.

If he's at 57% in Week 12, we'll be talking about who we're gonna take with our top 10 first round pick in 2018. If we're to have any hope of making the playoffs let alone get back to the SB, we're going to have to see what we're all assuming is an anomaly turn into a moot point very soon, like this Sunday.

Here's some more facts to think about: Last season, Russell had just 4 games with a sub 60% completion percentage, and he didn't have two consecutive games under 60%. In 2015, he had just one game under 60%. As a matter of fact, he's never had a 3 game stretch in his entire NFL career where he's completed less than 60% of his passes....until now.

Furthermore, this isn't just some random 3 game stretch. It's the start of the season, with no 'good' performances to offset the sub par ones. It's a legitimate subject, and I'll be digging up this thread WAYYYY before Week 12 if he isn't back to his usual accurate self well before then.

[Largent80]

He's missed a few passes. It just proves that he's NOT a robot.

Dude is the best QB we've ever had.

But what I see mostly is that even from the shotgun formation he is taking like 5 steps back. Part of that is on the OC and part is on the OL, but if he just gets the ball and throws quick slants and hitches once in a while it would really help both him and the OL. Because it actually helps the defensive player rushing get a better angle and actually makes that rusher harder to block.

Focusing strictly on the O-line — with the QB dropping back so deep you’re asking a tackle to mirror a player who is 40-50lbs lighter and likely one of the best athletes in the NFL (as most DE’s are) while giving said player a better angle and much more space to work with.

We’ve always talked about how difficult Wilson is to block for. His scrambling nature and ability to improvise often means a linemen has to take a best guess on where he’s going to be. It’s much harder to create a basic pocket if Wilson is moving around and he has a tendency to sack himself on occasions. Wilson holds onto the ball for a long time too — so sustaining blocks is much more important than it would be for a pure pocket passer.

[Irish Greg 2.0]

He takes so many back steps because he has been under siege for 2 years.

They must fix the O line next off-season, at all costs.

[RiverDog]

He takes so many back steps because he has been under siege for 2 years.

They must fix the O line next off-season, at all costs.

Russell's always taken deeper than average drops, probably because due to his height, he can get a little better field vision if he isn't so close to the forest. Taking that deep of drops puts pressure on our tackles as they have to push the edge rusher even further to the outside.

[idhawkman]

Wilson said today he thinks the overthrows vs. Tennessee were related to the hot weather...

Because the ball was carrying further in the heat.

Maybe he should have told the equipment manager to "take a little air out of the ball" after pre-game warm up then...

[idhawkman]

Russell's always taken deeper than average drops, probably because due to his height, he can get a little better field vision if he isn't so close to the forest. Taking that deep of drops puts pressure on our tackles as they have to push the edge rusher even further to the outside.

What this also does is sometimes forces the OT to over commit to pushing the rusher outside which opens up the inside blitz between T/G or allows for other moves by the DE to the inside that normally would not be there. Also, becuase the T is so far away from the G, it opens up the DT to have two options to attack the OG.

[NorthHawk]

Brees has been doing the same thing his whole career, so it can be a successful strategy.
The integrity of the OL is what's at issue, though and I wonder if he's taking a deeper drop to get him more time or more avenue's of escape.

[Hawktawk]

Brees stands on his tiptoes to throw out of the pocket sometimes, he literally does. I haven't seen Russ try that. Still 375 yards and 4 TDs isn't chicken feed on the road against a solid team. If he had connected in the first half it would have been 550 yards and 6 TDs. So Ill see the glass as half full for now....

If they lose at home to a bad Indy team and the offense slumps again then all bets are off on this season.

[Irish Greg 2.0]

Brees stands on his tiptoes to throw out of the pocket sometimes, he literally does. I haven't seen Russ try that. Still 375 yards and 4 TDs isn't chicken feed on the road against a solid team. If he had connected in the first half it would have been 550 yards and 6 TDs. So Ill see the glass as half full for now....

If they lose at home to a bad Indy team and the offense slumps again then all bets are off on this season.

Throw his gaudy stats from last week out. Tennessee went to soft zone, up 30-14. We didnt do jack on offense, really, until then.

Let's see it in the first quarter, and when it really counts.

[Hawktawk]

I completely agree IG. As Ive said it reminds me of AZ at home last year where Russ and the offense were dormant for 3 quarters then stormed back to lose a close one. Its like some of Hass's empty late game stats in losses late in his career in Seattle.
We need a fast start. Our D is aging. They are still elite unless they get worn out and they've spent too much time on the field all 3 games.They need to play from a lead and hunt.

[Hawk Sista]

Even though the Titans practice in and are more used to high heat/high humidity; their D was playing in it too. If by any measure, we use heat exhaustion/fatigue as a reason for the Hawk’s defensive woes, I think it’s only fair to say it cuts both ways. I’m not going to get too excited about offensive line improvements or credit for general improvement on the O side of the ball until we see a larger sample size.

I was, however, encouraged. One can hope.

[c_hawkbob]

Whether you want to call it making excuses or not there are teams that don't play well under 'x' condition ... for some it's on grass, for some it's cold weather, or rain or under a dome ... for us, at least the Carroll version of us, it's extreme heat. We just wilt.

Maybe it's because we play so close to the edge that the heat is just something that pushes us over it and we don't keep our mental edge. We're a pretty cerebral team, losing our mental acuity is a big deal for us.

[RiverDog]

Whether you want to call it making excuses or not there are teams that don't play well under 'x' condition ... for some it's on grass, for some it's cold weather, or rain or under a dome ... for us, at least the Carroll version of us, it's extreme heat. We just wilt.

Maybe it's because we play so close to the edge that the heat is just something that pushes us over it and we don't keep our mental edge. We're a pretty cerebral team, losing our mental acuity is a big deal for us.

There will be no such excuses today. We're playing at home, the weather shouldn't be much of a factor, Indy has the 29th ranked passing defense and 28th overall defense, not to mention that their franchise quarterback is out....if we don't cover the 13 point spread, then something is seriously wrong with this team.

[RiverDog]

Throw his gaudy stats from last week out. Tennessee went to soft zone, up 30-14. We didnt do jack on offense, really, until then.

And Russell STILL couldn't break through the 60% barrier.

He needs a big game to get his confidence back. Admittedly he hasn't gotten much support from his line or his receivers, but he's missed on a number of very makeable throws even when he's had decent protection. Is he hearing footsteps? Is he the second coming of David Carr? He needs a 300 yard, 3 TD game in the worst way.

[Hawk Sista]

David Carr... really? You are taking a very small sample size (choosing to edit out his successes) and forgetting that he’s pretty damned good. He was never pre-ordained as a franchise QB, he’s proven it. He’s the best in franchise history by every measure and we are 3 games in to the season. We always start slow. It’ll be ok, guys. Just watch.

Remember the 2-2 is a disaster thread?

[RiverDog]

David Carr... really? You are taking a very small sample size (choosing to edit out his successes) and forgetting that he’s pretty damned good. He was never pre-ordained as a franchise QB, he’s proven it. He’s the best in franchise history by every measure and we are 3 games in to the season. We always start slow. It’ll be ok, guys. Just watch.

Remember the 2-2 is a disaster thread?

You did notice the question mark behind my David Carr statement, didn't you? I was just throwing it out there, that there's a possibility that Russell's recent (and for him unprecedented) completion percentage slump could be related to his hearing footsteps ala David Carr.

[Hawk Sista]

I knew what you mean, my friend. But Mr. Carr never ever had the successes that RW has had and I doubt seriously that RW slides into a slump. (& remember, I’m a proud Fresno State Bulldog.)

[RiverDog]

I knew what you mean, my friend. But Mr. Carr never ever had the successes that RW has had and I doubt seriously that RW slides into a slump. (& remember, I’m a proud Fresno State Bulldog.)

To say that Mr. Car never ever had the successes that RW has had is a severe understatement, and I never went so far as to compare the entire careers of the two players. My comparison is limited to the past 3 games, keeping in mind that Russell has had to deal with Carr-like pressure for the two previous seasons. But I do think it's very possible, perhaps even likely, that if we don't do something to take the pressure off Russell that there's a good chance that his career could tailspin like Carr's did. My point was that I think he's starting to hear footsteps.

[Hawk Sista]

I guess I just feel like it’s a rough patch and I’m hoping to pop out on the other side.... drinking a beer w/ you in zona w/ nothin’ but Great news and a rosy outlook... but all y’all keep bursting my bubble and stressing me out. please know I’m arguing with myself more than I’m arguing with you.

Are you still going to the Cardinal game, RD? If so, I’ll PM you our section...I’m buying you that beer...hell or high water.

[RiverDog]

I guess I just feel like it’s a rough patch and I’m hoping to pop out on the other side.... drinking a beer w/ you in zona w/ nothin’ but Great news and a rosy outlook... but all y’all keep bursting my bubble and stressing me out. please know I’m arguing with myself more than I’m arguing with you.

Are you still going to the Cardinal game, RD? If so, I’ll PM you our section...I’m buying you that beer...hell or high water.

Obviously I'm hoping that Russell's slump is a short lived one, too. If it wasn't for the fact that it's the first 3 games of the season, I wouldn't be as concerned. But if we struggle to put points on the board tonight, you're going to have to start a "2-2 is a disaster" thread.

Both me and IG are going to the Arizona game. We plan on hanging out in McFadden's prior to the game, probably afterwards as well. If you've never been there prior to a Hawks game, it's about 90% Seahawk fans. We'll exchange phone numbers when the date gets closer. I'll be easy to find, white Seahawks cap, bill forward, with a #12 Nike blue home jersey with "River Dog" on the back. Can't be too many of those.

[Hawk Sista]

Very good, RD. It seems like a long way off, but it’s really not. Crazy that it’s October already. It
Seems like yesterday that I was hoping to make it to July 5th. I’ll buy you both beers (or whatever).

[Stream Hawk]

Pretty awesome 21-26 (80%) accuracy night. And those ints were pretty much on Graham Kearsing.

[Hawk Sista]

80% sucks

[Anthony]

Pretty awesome 21-26 (80%) accuracy night. And those ones were pretty much on Graham Kearsing.

ONe has ot wonder were Rw complt% might be if not for the 14 drops through 3 games. Not to mention at least 1 int that is for sure on the TE and the other well any real Football player comes back for it and attacks the pass not wait for it. But Graham decides I will just wait and let the defender get it first. Dumb A$$. Then add in Rw getting planted while throwing it

[RiverDog]

Pretty awesome 21-26 (80%) accuracy night. And those ints were pretty much on Graham Kearsing.

Yep, Russell looked a lot better throwing the ball last night. He was on target for the most part.

[burrrton]

Pretty awesome 21-26 (80%) accuracy night. And those ints were pretty much on Graham Kearsing.

Yup- the one the defender played volleyball with maybe not, but the second one absolutely is on JG.