Game Thread

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Re: Game Thread

Postby RiverDog » Mon Dec 17, 2018 5:10 pm

Anthony wrote:How much of that is PCs mantra you can't win in the 1st-3rd, but you can in the 4th? Answer most of it.


In your opinion, most of it. In my opinion, very little if any of it. Pete's mantra is Always Compete, not Always Compete in the 4th quarter.

For some reason, Russell has always been a slow starter, at least in the years that he's played for us. I am not going to speculate as to why except that I seriously doubt that he has Pete's voice going off in his head telling him he doesn't have to make plays until the 4th quarter.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby Anthony » Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:18 pm

RiverDog wrote:
In your opinion, most of it. In my opinion, very little if any of it. Pete's mantra is Always Compete, not Always Compete in the 4th quarter.

For some reason, Russell has always been a slow starter, at least in the years that he's played for us. I am not going to speculate as to why except that I seriously doubt that he has Pete's voice going off in his head telling him he doesn't have to make plays until the 4th quarter.


No but he does have PC in his ear not turn over, not chances until the 4th
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Re: Game Thread

Postby RiverDog » Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:51 pm

Anthony wrote:No but he does have PC in his ear not turn over, not chances until the 4th


Your post is a bit confusing. Are you saying that Pete tells Russell not to take any chances until the 4th quarter?
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Re: Game Thread

Postby Anthony » Mon Dec 17, 2018 8:15 pm

RiverDog wrote:Your post is a bit confusing. Are you saying that Pete tells Russell not to take any chances until the 4th quarter?


Let me clarify as I see what you mean about being confusing. So we know that PC preaches take care of the ball, no TOs, no chances. This almost always changes in the 4th qtr as wear usually either down or its close. So what I am saying is Pete's preaching of no turnovers, no chances, until we have no choices goes hand in hand with his you can't win in the 1-3rd but can in the 4th. PC has said himself he likes to keep it close by running and defense and then win in the 4th. Playing conservative qtrs 1-3 and then opening it up in the 4th works for that philosophy and also goes with his you cant win in the 1-3 qtr but you can in the 4th.

Hope that clarifies things.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby RiverDog » Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:12 pm

Anthony wrote:Let me clarify as I see what you mean about being confusing. So we know that PC preaches take care of the ball, no TOs, no chances. This almost always changes in the 4th qtr as wear usually either down or its close. So what I am saying is Pete's preaching of no turnovers, no chances, until we have no choices goes hand in hand with his you can't win in the 1-3rd but can in the 4th. PC has said himself he likes to keep it close by running and defense and then win in the 4th. Playing conservative qtrs 1-3 and then opening it up in the 4th works for that philosophy and also goes with his you cant win in the 1-3 qtr but you can in the 4th.

Hope that clarifies things.


I don't agree. Pete does preach a ball control, low risk offense, but it's for the entire game, not just Quarters 1-3. If the game situation dictates, ie behind by 2+ scores, then he is forced to depart from that philosophy in order to catch up.

A good example is the Minnesota game. Russell only passed for 72 yards for the ENTIRE GAME because we were ahead and the defense was playing lights out. Nothing about our offensive philosphy changed in the 4th quarter.

Russell starts out slow. I don't know exactly why but I know enough to confidently say that it's not due to Pete's philosophy. I don't know why you just can't accept this tendoncy of his rather than trying to assign blame to someone other than Russell.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby Anthony » Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:55 am

RiverDog wrote:
I don't agree. Pete does preach a ball control, low risk offense, but it's for the entire game, not just Quarters 1-3. If the game situation dictates, ie behind by 2+ scores, then he is forced to depart from that philosophy in order to catch up.

A good example is the Minnesota game. Russell only passed for 72 yards for the ENTIRE GAME because we were ahead and the defense was playing lights out. Nothing about our offensive philosphy changed in the 4th quarter.

Russell starts out slow. I don't know exactly why but I know enough to confidently say that it's not due to Pete's philosophy. I don't know why you just can't accept this tendoncy of his rather than trying to assign blame to someone other than Russell.


There have been to many games were WIlson has not started slow, as well as alot of games where he does to believe it is as simple as Wilson, especially given all the things Pets has said.
I guess we can just agree to disagree,
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Re: Game Thread

Postby NorthHawk » Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:11 pm

Over the last few years it seems to me that he's had a lot more slow starts than fast starts.
I don't have any numbers to support it, but we've been talking about it for at least 2 years and maybe 3 or more.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby RiverDog » Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:36 pm

NorthHawk wrote:Over the last few years it seems to me that he's had a lot more slow starts than fast starts.
I don't have any numbers to support it, but we've been talking about it for at least 2 years and maybe 3 or more.


That's been obvious to just about everyone, with one notable exception. It coincides with Beast's departure and our having gotten away from the running game. I'm not sure if there's a relationship, and if so, what kind of relationship, or if it's just a coincidence. But it does seem like once we had to start relying on Russell for more of our offensive production that he's been more prone to these slow starts. Perhaps he's putting too much pressure on himself and it takes a little while to settle down and get mentally into the flow of the game.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby idhawkman » Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:01 pm

RiverDog wrote:That's been obvious to just about everyone, with one notable exception. It coincides with Beast's departure and our having gotten away from the running game. I'm not sure if there's a relationship, and if so, what kind of relationship, or if it's just a coincidence. But it does seem like once we had to start relying on Russell for more of our offensive production that he's been more prone to these slow starts. Perhaps he's putting too much pressure on himself and it takes a little while to settle down and get mentally into the flow of the game.

I think it actually started the year after our SB win. Mid season the team had to have a meeting to get on track and it took a big toll on the defense where Sherm was limping into the SB with a busted wing and ET had his own injuries he was dealing with.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby RiverDog » Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:19 pm

idhawkman wrote:I think it actually started the year after our SB win. Mid season the team had to have a meeting to get on track and it took a big toll on the defense where Sherm was limping into the SB with a busted wing and ET had his own injuries he was dealing with.


Could be. There was so many other distractions going on that year with the Percy Harvin debacle and everything that I might not have noticed it, but for sure the tendoncy was showing itself when Russell became the leader of the team in 2015.
Last edited by RiverDog on Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby idhawkman » Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:21 pm

RiverDog wrote:
Could be. There was so many other distractions going on that year with the Percy Harvin debacle and everything that I might not have noticed it, but for sure the tendoncy was showing itself when Russell became the leader of the team.

Agree it definitely got the spot light once he took over the face of the offense (e.g. Beast had the hernia and then retired)
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Re: Game Thread

Postby Anthony » Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:37 pm

idhawkman wrote:Agree it definitely got the spot light once he took over the face of the offense (e.g. Beast had the hernia and then retired)



Did it really though lets look at it, Beast was hurt most of 2015, so by qtr

qt1
92 attempts 66.3 % complt, 4 tds 99 Qb rating
Qt 2
148 attempts 67.6 complt%, 12 tds, 114.1 qb rating
Qt3
110 attempts, 70% complt, 9 tds, 110 qn rating
Qt4
124 attetmps, 67.7 Complt 114.8 Qb rating

So first thing that jumps out at me his not so much a slow start as fewer attempts.

Now 2016
Qt1
105 attempts, 70.5 Compt%, 0 tds, 91.9 Qb rating
qt2
166 attempts, 62% compt, 10 TDs, 96 Qb rating
qt3
111 attempts, 61.3% complt, 2 tds, 75 qb rating
qt4
156 attempts, 64,7% compt, 9 tds, 100 Qb rating
So not a slow start form complt % wise but from td wise, and also Qt3 was not good, but qtr 2 was very good.

Now 2017
qt1
119 attempts, 58% compt, 4 tds, 74 QB rating
qt2
151 attempts, 61 complt%, 4 tds, 81 QB rating
qt3
144 attempts, 58 Compt%, 7 tds, 85 qb rating'
qt4
139 attempts, 68coompt5, 19tds, 134 qb rating

Now that is a slow start

so far 2018
qt1
73 attempts, 65.8 Complt%, 6 tds, 115.8 Qb rating
qt2
115 attempts, 71Complt%, 11 tds, 125.5 qb rating
qt3
76 attempts, 63 complt%, 5 TDs, 98 qb rating
qt4
112 attempts, 64complt%, 9 Tds, 104 qb rating
So not a slow start, more about attempts.


Now for perspective lets look at 2012-2014 numbers on avg
qt1
92 attemps, 64%comp, 3 tds, 93 qb rating
qt2
126 attempts, 63% complt, 8 tds, 105 Qb rating
qt3
101 attempts, 62% compl, 5 tds, 91 qb rating
qt4
93 attempts, 60%compl, 7 tds, 97 qb rating

Again seems mostly about attempts as does every year but the one. so not starting slow, just not many chances.


So other than 1 year the whole slow start thing really is not true, and any perceived slow start was more about attempts than an actual slow start. Also, add in at no time were we in a passing system built for Wilson. So to me, this whole slow start thing except for 1 season is basically not accurate.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby NorthHawk » Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:20 am

So how many points did we score on Offense and how often were we behind by halftime?
There's a reason why he has so many 4th quarter comebacks.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby Anthony » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:02 am

NorthHawk wrote:So how many points did we score on Offense and how often were we behind by halftime?
There's a reason why he has so many 4th quarter comebacks.



Ys and there is a reason Brady is top 7 in that category as well. It boils down to game, plan, and defense.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby NorthHawk » Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:04 pm

Brady's up there because he's been at it for 18 years or thereabouts.
You can discount Defense because many of the comeback wins were when the LoB was at it's peak and giving up the fewest points in the league.
Game plan? I'm sure it's part of it along with bad OL play, but the QB has to factor into it as well if only because he's the most important part of the Offense.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby RiverDog » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:09 pm

NorthHawk wrote:You can discount Defense because many of the comeback wins were when the LoB was at it's peak and giving up the fewest points in the league.


That's true, and a byproduct of that league leading points defense, along with Pete's penchant for a run first, ball control offense, was that games were kept low scoring and close. Pete's teams set a record for the most consecutive games having not lost by more than 10 points. Those factors present more opportunities for 4th quarter comebacks.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby Anthony » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:11 pm

NorthHawk wrote:Brady's up there because he's been at it for 18 years or thereabouts.
You can discount Defense because many of the comeback wins were when the LoB was at it's peak and giving up the fewest points in the league.
Game plan? I'm sure it's part of it along with bad OL play, but the QB has to factor into it as well if only because he's the most important part of the Offense.


While I agree some of these were during the LOG high point, what also was going on during that time was a heavy heavy run offense where the QB got few opportunities till the end example game 1 of the comebacks only 21 pass attempts, with most coming in 4th qtr. That is the same song for most of the comeback games, key is most. As I have said and PC has verified the game plan is very conservative the first 3 qtrs and opens up in the 4th. This also supports what I am saying and again let's look at the stats I posted earlier. During the 2012-2014 time when the LOB was at their best, the QB was getting in avg 5 attempts in the first qtr, hard to do much with only 5 attempts.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby NorthHawk » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:28 pm

He's still the QB and as the ball is in his hands every play, he has to take some or maybe a large part of the blame, just like he gets all the accolades for comeback wins.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby RiverDog » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:29 pm

Anthony wrote:While I agree some of these were during the LOG high point, what also was going on during that time was a heavy heavy run offense where the QB got few opportunities till the end example game 1 of the comebacks only 21 pass attempts, with most coming in 4th qtr. That is the same song for most of the comeback games, key is most. As I have said and PC has verified the game plan is very conservative the first 3 qtrs and opens up in the 4th. This also supports what I am saying and again let's look at the stats I posted earlier. During the 2012-2014 time when the LOB was at their best, the QB was getting in avg 5 attempts in the first qtr, hard to do much with only 5 attempts.


Anthony, you can't treat all 4 quarters equal in terms of passing attempts or plays ran. First of all, 4th quarter rules are different than the other 3, allowing for more clock stoppages, and secondly, teams tend to save their timeouts until the 4th quarter, and there's the 2 minute warning that's not present in the 1st and 3rd quarters. Plus all trailing teams have a tendency to "open it up" in the 4th quarter and try to conserve time, making for even more plays to be ran than in the other 3 quarters.

Just as the last two minutes of a basketball game can stretch on forever, the 4th quarter of a football game can stretch on forever.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby Anthony » Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:02 pm

NorthHawk wrote:He's still the QB and as the ball is in his hands every play, he has to take some or maybe a large part of the blame, just like he gets all the accolades for comeback wins.


1 never said he does not deserve some blame, just adding in the other variables.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby Anthony » Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:04 pm

RiverDog wrote:Anthony, you can't treat all 4 quarters equal in terms of passing attempts or plays ran. First of all, 4th quarter rules are different than the other 3, allowing for more clock stoppages, and secondly, teams tend to save their timeouts until the 4th quarter, and there's the 2 minute warning that's not present in the 1st and 3rd quarters. Plus all trailing teams have a tendency to "open it up" in the 4th quarter and try to conserve time, making for even more plays to be ran than in the other 3 quarters.

Just as the last two minutes of a basketball game can stretch on forever, the 4th quarter of a football game can stretch on forever.


So in other words and thank you, there is a reason why he does better and more in the 4th qtr than the first 3. Thank you.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby RiverDog » Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:28 pm

RiverDog wrote:Anthony, you can't treat all 4 quarters equal in terms of passing attempts or plays ran. First of all, 4th quarter rules are different than the other 3, allowing for more clock stoppages, and secondly, teams tend to save their timeouts until the 4th quarter, and there's the 2 minute warning that's not present in the 1st and 3rd quarters. Plus all trailing teams have a tendency to "open it up" in the 4th quarter and try to conserve time, making for even more plays to be ran than in the other 3 quarters.

Just as the last two minutes of a basketball game can stretch on forever, the 4th quarter of a football game can stretch on forever.


Anthony wrote:So in other words and thank you, there is a reason why he does better and more in the 4th qtr than the first 3. Thank you.


I'm not sure how you were able to derive a "why Russell does better in the 4th quarter" from my comments. You might be able to use my comments to show that he gets higher gross numbers such as yards and passing attempts, but it can't be used to show why he plays better in the 4th quarter or worse in the 1st. My point was that you can't make a fair quarter-to-quarter statistical comparison as you were attempting.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby Anthony » Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:02 pm

RiverDog wrote:]

I'm not sure how you were able to derive a "why Russell does better in the 4th quarter" from my comments. You might be able to use my comments to show that he gets higher gross numbers such as yards and passing attempts, but it can't be used to show why he plays better in the 4th quarter or worse in the 1st. My point was that you can't make a fair quarter-to-quarter statistical comparison as you were attempting.


I guess once again we can agree to disagree. That said the biggest point I want to make is there are a lot of variables in the whole equation and Wilson himself is only one, and we really don't know where or who the biggest issue is.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby idhawkman » Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:32 pm

RiverDog wrote:That's true, and a byproduct of that league leading points defense, along with Pete's penchant for a run first, ball control offense, was that games were kept low scoring and close. Pete's teams set a record for the most consecutive games having not lost by more than 10 points. Those factors present more opportunities for 4th quarter comebacks.

Not to mention the short fields and increased possessions the defense gave him.
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Re: Game Thread

Postby Anthony » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:40 pm

idhawkman wrote:Not to mention the short fields and increased possessions the defense gave him.



Or the defense gives up scores with 23 seconds left costing us games that are supposedly great defense would like to do. Or the defenses not having to worry about the offense having a lot of turnovers and spending a lot of time on a short field. Everyone talks about how much help the defense and run game helped Wilson but I hate to tell you he Helped them too. One of the reasons I do defense Wilson is because of stuff like this, stupid crap like this, Yeah Well that great defense kept the game close all the time so he could win them, and get extra possessions, and that run game. Forget about the times the defense and run game failed. Forget about the very limited opportunities he got to do anything because of how we play. This last few posts started about why Wilson is a slow starter. Not the offense or the team Wilson. So I bring up other things to take into account, and show with facts it is not slow starts it is limited chances, and nope its got to be Wilson then I show sorry other than 1 year he does not get slow starts, and people find ways to try to tear apart that stance. Now the whole 4th qtr argument, well guess what there is an argument to be made about every qtr if you want. I get it most of you feel like any QB would do, and Wilson is nothing. Thankfully the experts and the facts show otherwise. FYI that great record of not losing by more than 10 points Wilson had a play in that as well, but of course no mention of that. Always how Wilson was helped by everything, but never how Wilson helped, the defense, the run game. in 2011 with Lynch we were ranked 21st in rushing, in 2012 with Lynch we were ranked 3rd Hmm difference was the 489 yards our QB got us, the RO came into being and who do you think benefitted the most? The run game and that improved run game also meant less time on the field for the defense, less short fields for them to defend etc. I showed that other than 1 year Wilson does not get off to slow starts it is more about few chances. So you guys can make up whatever you want, try to come up with lame excuses to ignore facts, but the reality still stands the facts who Wilson doe snot get off to slow starts as a norm, only fewer chances, and Wilson was just as important to the success fo the team, the run game, and the defense as they were to him.
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