Seahawks Over/Under Win Total

[River Dog]

I'm not feeling down. I think anyone who thought this would be some quick turnaround and immediate contention had highly unrealistic expectations. I went into this season expecting a multiyear rebuild and my expectations have not changed. I could care less about winning this year. I want a quality rebuild than a prolonged period of contention once we get the talent necessary for contention, especially at the QB position.

I don't buy any coach or GM telling me something isn't a rebuild. You know when your team falls apart, no longer has the talent to compete, and is in rebuild mode. If you have a GM and head coach that don't know this, then I don't know that I want them for very long.

NFL teams have very clear down periods, usually at the end of a coaching or QB cycle that requires a full rebuild where you turnover the talent, want some down years for elevated draft picks, and must take time to let the new head coach develop the talent to execute their scheme.

The hope is that after a few years, the head coach's schemes work with the acquired talent to form a long-term competitor for a new contention cycle.

I went into this season to watch Mike MacDonald operate as a coach. I don't expect to see true contention for a few years. This team has been notably bereft of competitive talent. Until it builds its talent base, especially on defense we wont' be real contenders.

I thought that there was a chance that we could be competitive immediately. This wasn't an empty cupboard that Pete left us with. We were 18-16 over the past two seasons. I wasn't expecting a quick turnaround, rather I thought it wasn't an outrageous proposition. It's not as if Macdonald inherited a team like the Bears or Jags.

[Aseahawkfan]

I thought that there was a chance that we could be competitive immediately. This wasn't an empty cupboard that Pete left us with. We were 18-16 over the past two seasons. I wasn't expecting a quick turnaround, rather I thought it wasn't an outrageous proposition. It's not as if Macdonald inherited a team like the Bears or Jags.

I always attributed the middling records to Pete's coaching. He gets a lot of out players and can out coach a lot of people in the league. Pete's worse record in all his years in the pros was 6 and 10 as one year coach of the New York Jets. Only thing keeping us in the mediocre range was Pete's ability to coach in that mediocre range when he has a weak talent base.

When you analyze the team's talent, what do we really have? Geno Smith as QB. A guy that was a backup for years and failed when he had the chance to start. DK and Tyler, probably two of our best players. Young rooks across the O-line. Abe Lucas can't stay on the field. Charles Cross is our most consistent O-lineman. A newly built D-line which is also having injury issues. Newly signed LBs, none of them particularly great. Young DBs with promise. A couple of RBs that have shown promise. Some ok safeties that show promise that we changed out the last few years.

Did you really think we had a cupboard even half-full? It was a pretty empty cupboard. A lot of potential, more than a few failed players, free agents not working out, and big holes at key positions like safety and LB.

Sometimes I think fans of a team over-rate talent because it's their team. But this team had a pretty low talent base for MacDonald to work with. Pete and John missed a lot the last five years. They made a lot of bad or failed trades. We've signed some not so bad guys, but no real superstars or top flight guys. Pete made Geno look good enough to be mediocre.

To me this talent base is not great and needs some real good hits in the next few years. If Schneider don't hit, then he needs to go to. Right now I hardly see any superstars on this team. DK. Tyler, but he's on the tail end of his career rather than the start. Defensive stars? Hopefully Spoon. Everyone else is inconsistent or injured.

This is nowhere near the talent we had during our contending years across generations. This team don't hold a candle to the Legion of Boom team nor the Holmgren contending Seahawks and not even the great Knox teams we watched growing up. There are no Largents or Cortez's or Curt Warners or Shaun Alexander's or Walter Jones or Legion of Boom's or anyone that I look at and go, "That's a cornerstone superstar." This is a bunch of middle of the pack or worse players with some young rooks that need some better talent around them to shine led by a bridge QB that was a refurbished lemon rebuilt well enough to add a few thousand miles on the road.

Sometimes you gotta take the rose colored glasses off and see what you really have. This talent base is not great at all. Lowest I've seen it in years. No real national level superstars other than DK. Just a bunch of guys only we Seattle fans know because we follow the team and some journeyman and rooks followers of football think show some promise. This is not a star team at all. Low talent base. Medicore and deservedly so.

I'm all with giving Schneider a chance, but I'm more in the Irish Greg camp if Schneider doesn't start hitting real soon that he needs to go. Too much wasted talent. Soon as we get a few years of him without Pete, we'll see if Schneider was part of the reason for the fall off or he can rebuild this right with no one second guessing him or pushing him into desperate trades.

[NorthHawk]

We have some talent - maybe even extreme talent at WR but we don’t have the solid middle talent to compete against top teams.
We have talent at WR as mentioned along with RB, and DB but where it counts we are lacking. The addition of Murphy on the DL is a good start but more work is needed and we don’t have a lot of proven talent at ILB. On Offense, we again see a huge turnover on the OL with 4 of the 5 different from last year. The Lucas situation couldn’t be helped but it still leaves us with 3 changes on the OL. Haynes at this point seems a disappointment but it’s his first year so maybe there’s hope but we don’t know if JS wants to re-sign Connor Williams and they need another Guard so it would seem that 3 or 4 changes will be required again this next offseason.

We’ve got a lot of work to do to get competitive and we need a long term option at QB as well. TE is another position that we will have to address as it looks like Fant is the only starting TE signed for next year.

I would hope that they would focus on one or two areas like IOL and LB in both FA and the draft and not bottom feed for players like we’ve done for the IOL the last decade. It’s time that gets fixed.

[Aseahawkfan]

When we were real contenders, we had some guys that were arguably the best players at their position in the league.

Holmgren's contending teams: Big Walt. Shaun Alexander, a league MVP. Hutch.

Knox's contending teams: Steve Largent. Curt Warner. Though I can't call Knox's teams real contenders. They had a few good years.

Pete's Seahawks: Legendary defense. Stacked with talent. The best team we ever fielded. Secondary had three of the best players in the league and all of them could play in any era. That team had a laundry list of talent.

Current team: DK is probably the only one that is a national star. LBs? Who knows if they are any good. D-line? Some guys that are good when they are on the field, but no one that is high on the national list on a yearly basis. We are missing Uchenna Nwosu and hope if he comes back healthy we can stop the run again and there is no assurance we can when he comes back. Bad run defense for how many years now? five or so? Running game incredibly inconsistent. Take off the Seahawk blue glasses and look at this team on a national level. This is the lowest number of star players we've had in years.

All we ever talk about on this forum is maybe if this guy gets back healthy, we'll be better. We've changed players over the last five years like underwear. And yet we still haven't turned around the defense. We actually debate whether Geno can be a Super Bowl contender when the answer is clearly no unless they build some kind of Ravens or Tampa Bay during their glory years defense and we get some kind of lucky breaks in the playoffs.

All I've heard since we dropped off is: if we punch our playoff ticket, we might have a magical run.

I'm tired of that. I want real dominant talent on this team again. Pro Bowl and Hall of Fame level talent on both sides of the ball that can contend for real in this league. Not pray for a Nick Foles type of playoff run and Super Bowl win which has happened like once in the past 30 years or longer.

You want to win and contend for Super Bowls, build a talented team that has real Pro Bowl and Hall of Fame contending talent. Then these middling players like we have now can maybe shine enough to do something. If you're best players are the role-players and second string guys on other teams, you're not going to contend.

[Oly]

When we were real contenders, we had some guys that were arguably the best players at their position in the league.

Holmgren's contending teams: Big Walt. Shaun Alexander, a league MVP. Hutch.

Knox's contending teams: Steve Largent. Curt Warner. Though I can't call Knox's teams real contenders. They had a few good years.

Pete's Seahawks: Legendary defense. Stacked with talent. The best team we ever fielded. Secondary had three of the best players in the league and all of them could play in any era. That team had a laundry list of talent.

Current team: DK is probably the only one that is a national star. LBs? Who knows if they are any good. D-line? Some guys that are good when they are on the field, but no one that is high on the national list on a yearly basis. We are missing Uchenna Nwosu and hope if he comes back healthy we can stop the run again and there is no assurance we can when he comes back. Bad run defense for how many years now? five or so? Running game incredibly inconsistent. Take off the Seahawk blue glasses and look at this team on a national level. This is the lowest number of star players we've had in years.

All we ever talk about on this forum is maybe if this guy gets back healthy, we'll be better. We've changed players over the last five years like underwear. And yet we still haven't turned around the defense. We actually debate whether Geno can be a Super Bowl contender when the answer is clearly no unless they build some kind of Ravens or Tampa Bay during their glory years defense and we get some kind of lucky breaks in the playoffs.

All I've heard since we dropped off is: if we punch our playoff ticket, we might have a magical run.

I'm tired of that. I want real dominant talent on this team again. Pro Bowl and Hall of Fame level talent on both sides of the ball that can contend for real in this league. Not pray for a Nick Foles type of playoff run and Super Bowl win which has happened like once in the past 30 years or longer.

You want to win and contend for Super Bowls, build a talented team that has real Pro Bowl and Hall of Fame contending talent. Then these middling players like we have now can maybe shine enough to do something. If you're best players are the role-players and second string guys on other teams, you're not going to contend.

Excellent post. I have some different opinions around the edges, but I totally agree with the main conclusions.

I'd say that on the right day, Riq and Spoon could be added to the list of players that are at the top of their positions, but they've been too inconsistent to put them up there yet. But I'd definitely add Spoon to the list of players I think are Pro Bowl-level players build the core of a team. I'd also put Cross on the list, not because he's that good objectively, but because OL play is so bad throughout the league that he's about as good as we can hope for in this era of NFL tackles. Lastly, I'm not as confident putting DK on the list. He's a national star because his highlights are really damn good, and that's what most people see. I don't think he's actually one of the 10 WRs I'd pick to build a team, though, because of the turnovers and stupid flags.

So here is my list of players on the Hawks that I think are near the top of their positions in terms of talent using your breakdown:

HoF-contender: ???
Best-in-position contender: ???
Pro-Bowl-level: DK, Cross, (probably Spoon once he's more comfortable in the new scheme, and probably Murphy based on promise but will need a year or two to be here on production)
Talented, not a problem at all, any team would like these guys: Walker (could be higher?), JSN, Lockett (for how long though?), Riq, Big Cat, Hall/Mafe (good, but DE play is very good in the league right now so stiff competition)

Nwosu is injured and may never get on this list again, Love is solid but not a game-changer. Reed is okay, I suppose Fant and Geno are, too, but they're not at the level of players you're talking about.

[Aseahawkfan]

Excellent post. I have some different opinions around the edges, but I totally agree with the main conclusions.

I'd say that on the right day, Riq and Spoon could be added to the list of players that are at the top of their positions, but they've been too inconsistent to put them up there yet. But I'd definitely add Spoon to the list of players I think are Pro Bowl-level players build the core of a team. I'd also put Cross on the list, not because he's that good objectively, but because OL play is so bad throughout the league that he's about as good as we can hope for in this era of NFL tackles. Lastly, I'm not as confident putting DK on the list. He's a national star because his highlights are really damn good, and that's what most people see. I don't think he's actually one of the 10 WRs I'd pick to build a team, though, because of the turnovers and stupid flags.

So here is my list of players on the Hawks that I think are near the top of their positions in terms of talent using your breakdown:

HoF-contender: ???
Best-in-position contender: ???
Pro-Bowl-level: DK, Cross, (probably Spoon once he's more comfortable in the new scheme, and probably Murphy based on promise but will need a year or two to be here on production)
Talented, not a problem at all, any team would like these guys: Walker (could be higher?), JSN, Lockett (for how long though?), Riq, Big Cat, Hall/Mafe (good, but DE play is very good in the league right now so stiff competition)

Nwosu is injured and may never get on this list again, Love is solid but not a game-changer. Reed is okay, I suppose Fant and Geno are, too, but they're not at the level of players you're talking about.

I agree with your guys that have potential. They are very young and are definitely the hope for the future. All of them are first or second year players, which shows how low our talent base was and is when our best guys are developing rookies with potential.

Big Cat, Mafe, and Lockett are all solid vets.

But we need some guys that are like Earl, Sherm, and Kam in their power days. I'm glad Donald retired, but we still gotta deal with Bosa and we don't have a guy that good. We're in a division with some guys that are top in the league. Frisco is stacked with talent. Rams talent base seems to be falling off as they head for a rebuild cycle. Arizona I'm not sure about at all.

I hope some of our rooks become superstars and Schneider gets some of these glaring holes at LB and center of the O-line fixed in the next year or two. Good LBs are probably the only thing that will fix the run defense.

I am getting real tired of getting out-drafted and having other teams in our division and conference obtain much better talent than us. Hard to compete if you have a large talent gap.

[River Dog]

I agree with your guys that have potential. They are very young and are definitely the hope for the future. All of them are first or second year players, which shows how low our talent base was and is when our best guys are developing rookies with potential.

Big Cat, Mafe, and Lockett are all solid vets.

But we need some guys that are like Earl, Sherm, and Kam in their power days. I'm glad Donald retired, but we still gotta deal with Bosa and we don't have a guy that good. We're in a division with some guys that are top in the league. Frisco is stacked with talent. Rams talent base seems to be falling off as they head for a rebuild cycle. Arizona I'm not sure about at all.

I hope some of our rooks become superstars and Schneider gets some of these glaring holes at LB and center of the O-line fixed in the next year or two. Good LBs are probably the only thing that will fix the run defense.

I am getting real tired of getting out-drafted and having other teams in our division and conference obtain much better talent than us. Hard to compete if you have a large talent gap.

I wouldn't call Mafe a "solid vet". He's a 2nd year player who shows a lot of potential but has yet to take it to the next step.

Cross has taken a step forward this season. PFF seems to like him as they have him ranked 6th amongst tackles, a damn good rating when you consider they are combining right and left tackles in their rankings.

The 2022-23 draft classes aren't looking all that bad. Cross, Spoon, Mafe, Hall, JSN, and Charbonnet are all starters or starting quality. I don't see any flaming busts in that group.

[Aseahawkfan]

I wouldn't call Mafe a "solid vet". He's a 2nd year player who shows a lot of potential but has yet to take it to the next step.

Cross has taken a step forward this season. PFF seems to like him as they have him ranked 6th amongst tackles, a damn good rating when you consider they are combining right and left tackles in their rankings.

The 2022-23 draft classes aren't looking all that bad. Cross, Spoon, Mafe, Hall, JSN, and Charbonnet are all starters or starting quality. I don't see any flaming busts in that group.

Mafe is in his third year, but still young. He's doing well enough developing. Still not a superstar, but a solid contributor in a rotation.

Starting quality and some of the best in the league still a wide margin. We need some guys that get talked about as some of the best on a national level that even other teams look at and go, "Damn, we have our work cut out for us."

Right now, national level looks at the Seahawks as this collection of unknowns from the head coach down. We Seattle fans know the players because we're Seattle fans, but our guys are not guys other teams or national broadcasters talk about as top level players.

In my opinion, you're not contending if the NFL national sports casters don't know or think much of your team. They gotta work to find a player to talk about or an angle. I think only DK has a national presence at this moment. I'm not even sure you could do a special on any of our guys right now other than DK and maybe Tyler. When your team doesn't have players that get talked about on a national level, you have a pretty weak talent base. This is a young team with some glaring holes at key positions like LB, guard, center, and I'd argue safety as well. We have no superstars anywhere but maybe WR.

A lot of work to be done by Schneider to upgrade this talent. But he may be part of the problem and we'll find out in a few years.

I would say even further proof is the fact that right now we're talking about rooks with potential, not known quantity superstars. Even Seattle fans can't point to a player and say, "That guy is known all over the league as a top level talent that opponents have to scheme for." And that's a talent base that may be promising, but isn't proven. We don't even know if our head coach can develop or maximize talent at the moment.

We're mediocre because we have mediocre non-contending talent at key positions and developing talent that needs the weak positions shored up before they can focus on their job without having to worry about other people's jobs.

[River Dog]

I wouldn't call Mafe a "solid vet". He's a 2nd year player who shows a lot of potential but has yet to take it to the next step.

Cross has taken a step forward this season. PFF seems to like him as they have him ranked 6th amongst tackles, a damn good rating when you consider they are combining right and left tackles in their rankings.

The 2022-23 draft classes aren't looking all that bad. Cross, Spoon, Mafe, Hall, JSN, and Charbonnet are all starters or starting quality. I don't see any flaming busts in that group.

Mafe is in his third year, but still young. He's doing well enough developing. Still not a superstar, but a solid contributor in a rotation.

Starting quality and some of the best in the league still a wide margin. We need some guys that get talked about as some of the best on a national level that even other teams look at and go, "Damn, we have our work cut out for us."

Right now, national level looks at the Seahawks as this collection of unknowns from the head coach down. We Seattle fans know the players because we're Seattle fans, but our guys are not guys other teams or national broadcasters talk about as top level players.

In my opinion, you're not contending if the NFL national sports casters don't know or think much of your team. They gotta work to find a player to talk about or an angle. I think only DK has a national presence at this moment. I'm not even sure you could do a special on any of our guys right now other than DK and maybe Tyler. When your team doesn't have players that get talked about on a national level, you have a pretty weak talent base. This is a young team with some glaring holes at key positions like LB, guard, center, and I'd argue safety as well. We have no superstars anywhere but maybe WR.

A lot of work to be done by Schneider to upgrade this talent. But he may be part of the problem and we'll find out in a few years.

I would say even further proof is the fact that right now we're talking about rooks with potential, not known quantity superstars. Even Seattle fans can't point to a player and say, "That guy is known all over the league as a top level talent that opponents have to scheme for." And that's a talent base that may be promising, but isn't proven. We don't even know if our head coach can develop or maximize talent at the moment.

We're mediocre because we have mediocre non-contending talent at key positions and developing talent that needs the weak positions shored up before they can focus on their job without having to worry about other people's jobs.

You're right about Mafe. My bad. But I still wouldn't consider him a 'veteran.' But I agree that he's starter quality and on track to having a solid career.

We have good, above average talent. Not SB-quality talent IMO, but the cupboard isn't empty.

[Aseahawkfan]

You're right about Mafe. My bad. But I still wouldn't consider him a 'veteran.' But I agree that he's starter quality and on track to having a solid career.

We have good, above average talent. Not SB-quality talent IMO, but the cupboard isn't empty.

I can sort of agree with that. We have middling to slightly above average talent according to our record. Your record is only as good as your talent and your coach's ability to develop it and scheme for it.

A lot of us are old now on this board including you and I. We need a SB contender again sooner than later.

[River Dog]

A lot of us are old now on this board including you and I. We need a SB contender again sooner than later.

Yeah, most of us posters are on the north side of 50. The younger generations aren't as big of sports fans and are much more likely to post on social media rather than on a site like this.

I'm hoping that the Hawks don't descend into the abyss like the Mariners have. It caused me to lose interest not only in the team, but in the sport itself.

[NorthHawk]

[quote
I can sort of agree with that. We have middling to slightly above average talent according to our record. Your record is only as good as your talent and your coach's ability to develop it and scheme for it. ][/quote]

How many players have we actually developed? I can't think of any on the OL or DL as we only re-signed 1 OL in JS career here. The rest were FA's. WR? Maybe and perhaps earlier in the Carroll regime DBs who had extreme talent and Russell Wilson (but I wonder if we actually limited his development with our out of date Offense). LBs? Yes with KJ and Wags who had extreme talent but that's only 2 in 14 years. That's not much for a decade and about a half of football.

[River Dog]

How many players have we actually developed? I can't think of any on the OL or DL as we only re-signed 1 OL in JS career here. The rest were FA's. WR? Maybe and perhaps earlier in the Carroll regime DBs who had extreme talent and Russell Wilson (but I wonder if we actually limited his development with our out of date Offense). LBs? Yes with KJ and Wags who had extreme talent but that's only 2 in 14 years. That's not much for a decade and about a half of football.

I think you're selling Pete and John a little short. Both Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman were 5th round draft picks. If they had "extreme talent", they wouldn't have lasted that long. Pete turned them both into HOF candidates. Doug Baldwin was undrafted yet made two Pro Bowls. But I do agree that Pete and/or JS has a real blind spot when it comes to the OL.

[Aseahawkfan]

In my opinion, Pete did great developing and scheming talent when he first arrived. After that Super Bowl loss, he seemed to have developed a sort of PTSD that had him always thinking we were a trade or a player or two away from getting back to the Super Bowl. The team started it's fall into mediocrity when Pete refused to look at the team with an objective eye and start a rebuild. He kept trying to patch problems with trades and the drafting dropped off substantially often due to a loss of draft picks due to trades. The patches did not work. We were not close to contention. We needed a rebuild Pete seemed unwilling to do as he wanted to quickly turnaround back into a Super Bowl contender, which is just not how the NFL works.

In those early years, we developed a lot of great talent. As Riverdog stated, the O-line was one area where Pete and John seemed to have a blind spot or devalued the positions.

[curmudgeon]

Anyone see another win on this schedule? Anyone?……..

[NorthHawk]

Anyone see another win on this schedule? Anyone?……..

The remaining games are as follows:

at 49ers
Arizona
Jets
at Arizona
Green Bay
Minnesota
at Bears
at Rams

Looks like a reasonable guess would be a couple of wins and maybe 3.

[c_hawkbob]

Well 10-7 it is, I think Riv and 4XPIPS are the ones who called that.

[NorthHawk]

I thought it would have been about 8 or 9 wins at best if I recall. We could have won 11 if not for the Giants debacle but that's what teams going through major changes do - lose or win unexpectedly.