Hawks/Packers

[Spohawk5092]

So I am trying to figure out why the Packers are favored by 2....anyone???

[River Dog]

So I am trying to figure out why the Packers are favored by 2....anyone???

One word: Betting.

The point spreads are set by bookies based on how they think the bets will come in. They look at past betting trends, how many people bet on the Packers in the previous week vs. those who bet on the Seahawks, etc. Their goal is to even out the bets on each of the two possible outcomes (usually they assign a half point to the spread to avoid ties). Since they take a percentage on all bets, they want to reduce their risk of a huge payout if either team wins/covers the spread. If the bets come in differently than they expect, they'll adjust the line accordingly to encourage more betting on the team whose bets are lagging.

A lot of casual bettors will wager money just because. They want to throw a few bucks down on their favorite team regardless of what the odds are just for the hell of it. This can artificially inflate the point spread as bookies will react by adding or subtracting points from the betting line.

Unless I'm betting myself, I don't pay much attention to the point spread when picking a winner or loser. FYI I'm picking us to win tomorrow night.

Speaking of which...it's a little late now...but you should consider joining our Pick-em league. It gives you interest in the outcome of every game.

BTW, the line is Packers -2.5, not 2. It's not a trivial difference.

[Uppercut]

I have a bad vibe that the Hawks will have to play the Packers and the Refs

[NorthHawk]

I think the Packers have a better overall team. If their RB gets rolling it could be a long day for us. Jacob’s at times reminds me a little bit like Marshawn.

[River Dog]

Yeah, stopping Jacobs will be the key. I do think that we've turned a corner, that this team is quite a bit better relative to the league than we were just a few weeks ago. We win this game, we're in the driver's seat as we could afford to lose a game and still win the division. If we win out, we'll be a legitimate threat to go to the Super Bowl.

24-21 Hawks.

[curmudgeon]

Important game. Prime time, division, playoff positioning. Unfortunately they’ve recently put up some duds at home. Rams are peaking…..

[Aseahawkfan]

Another test to see if MacDonald can learn to defend the home turf. Packers haven't beat anyone of consequence either. Another barely contending team in a long line up of pretenders that when they run into a quality team, they fold. So this could go either way. They do at least have a winning record feasting on the weak like we have. Their best win is probably Houston.

Be nice to see the home turf defended. This team is definitely beatable.

[4XPIPS]

Important game. Prime time, division, playoff positioning. Unfortunately they’ve recently put up some duds at home. Rams are peaking…..

Yeah they walloped the 49ers, Hawks should be shaking in their cleats.

[Rambo2014]

Good luck boys. U will be looking up at the rear of a Ram in 5 or 6 hours.

[4XPIPS]

Highlighter green vs White Cheddar

Let’s go!

[River Dog]

Highlighter green vs White Cheddar

Let’s go!

Yeah, I hate those industrial puke green unis. They spent too much time working out at the Hanford area.

[c_hawkbob]

Calm down now ...

[curmudgeon]

That was easy…….

[c_hawkbob]

Tissue paper defense that drive.

[c_hawkbob]

Lord such poor tackling

[curmudgeon]

That was easier……

[c_hawkbob]

I sure hope our defense is as embarrassed as I am right now.

[River Dog]

Yeah, like walking around with your fly unzipped....

[c_hawkbob]

Wonder why Olu is out.

[curmudgeon]

Knee….

[c_hawkbob]

Well we couldn't afford that

[Aseahawkfan]

Run defense is improved, but it isn't fixed. Josh Jacobs is a one man wrecking crew against our defense.

For the love of football, please draft a head hunter-killer LB next year and maybe another fat boy to pair with Murphy.

Let's hope for second half adjustments. We seem to have lot our home field advantage.

[River Dog]

Might as well start looking to the Vikings game next week. This game is over.

[curmudgeon]

Welcome to the Howell era…..

[c_hawkbob]

Where's that Geno hater? It's your time bud!

[c_hawkbob]

2 scores down early in the 4th, game ain't over yet

[Aseahawkfan]

Let's see if the defense can give Howell a chance to create a QB controversy.

[Aseahawkfan]

On to Minnesota.

[Stream Hawk]

Geno needs to be back for a fighting chance next week. This was clearly a game we can blame on the OL. Defense settled down and gave us a chance. But in reality this one is just a wake up call. We are not contenders this year. Not even sure if playoffs are worth it. GB & real contenders make us look meh at best.

[NorthHawk]

We're one of the better mediocre teams - we play well against the poor and other mediocre teams but struggle against the good teams.
With us needing some help at LB and OL, it's to be expected but maybe it's a wake up call for JS and follow the GB script for drafting a good OL. Collinsworth alluded to how their OL is all draft picks and are young. We've never done that under JS so maybe it's time we try. It can't get any worse.

[Aseahawkfan]

We're one of the better mediocre teams - we play well against the poor and other mediocre teams but struggle against the good teams.
With us needing some help at LB and OL, it's to be expected but maybe it's a wake up call for JS and follow the GB script for drafting a good OL. Collinsworth alluded to how their OL is all draft picks and are young. We've never done that under JS so maybe it's time we try. It can't get any worse.

What do you mean? Our O-line is usually all draft picks and young guys isn't it? Right now it's supposed to be Abe Lucas, Charles Cross, Olu, Bradford, and another draft pick guard. Way back when Pete first started, we had Russell Okung, James Carpenter, Breno Giacomini, Max Unger, J.R Sweezy back in 2013 and those early years.

We have tried very hard to draft a young O-line multiple times, but for some reason John Schneider isn't good at drafting O-line or our coaching staff isn't good at developing them. I don't know which. Drafting O-line is what keeps the O-line cheap.

I can't remember the article, but a long time ago when we started doing this they did this article on how to build a great run game and they showed how the quality of the running back is more important than the quality of the O-line for running game quality. So this O-line and RB drafting strategy was understandable given the available information.

But this team has tried drafting good O-line. It really has. We've spent a lot of high picks on O-line over the years. But for some reason they don't work out.

Part of this may be the QB we drafted. Russ in his prime years was a crazylegs running QB. Left the pocket whether he needed to or not. So blocking for him was a nightmare as he wasn't going to stay in the pocket. You had to roll with it. We also had a RB that pretty much looked for contact because he liked to brutalize the opponent.

In recent years, it's been bad drafting or players didn't work out. They've tried to draft a young O-line. Even now our O-line is comprised of young draft picks.

What I'd like to see them do myself is continue to develop our tackles with Lucas hopefully able to fully rehab. Draft a good guard developmental prospect. Then sign a good, proven O-line guy at left guard to pair with Cross. One thing we've never really done is spent money on O-line. We've always gone cheap on O-line thinking they can just draft another guy. Nearly every O-line guy we ever drafted, we let them walk...maybe every single one. I cannot recall us signing an O-line guy to a longer term contract except maybe Max Unger. Even him we traded because Pete got a sudden itch to trade for Jimmy Graham for a tall, receiving option.

How about we finally spend some money on a proven O-line guy at guard why we draft and develop a guard behind him or at right guard? We haven't much tried that yet other than signing a few vets long in the teeth hoping they had a year or two left in them.

Maybe Cross does much better next to a more veteran left guard in a second contract. Why not try it?

Especially I would like to try this if we draft some QB we're looking to develop. You don't want to try to develop a QB who is under constant pressure unless you get lucky again and draft a Russ in his prime with crazy mobility. Those types of QBs don't grow on trees, so we're more likely to have a more traditional pocket QB that could use at least protection on one side.

It seems to me if you can build at least one side of your line strong, then you can more easily shade your TEs or blocking help to the other side to create a stronger O-line. When you have both sides and the middle like a sieve, then even if you shade your TEs to help there are too many weaknesses and holes to account for and the QB gets hammered or the run game opens no holes. Part of the line has to be strong and that includes at least one guard and one tackle paired together.

[Old but Slow]

Green Bay was a clearly better team. No excuses.

[River Dog]

Green Bay was a clearly better team. No excuses.

Sad but true. We got beat up front.

Once again, my bubble was popped. So many times, I think we've turned the corner only to be brought crashing back to reality. We're a mediocre team.

I expect us to lose next week vs. the Vikings, beat the Bears, then lose in the finale to the Rams, which would give us a 9-8 record, right about where I pegged us to finish at the beginning of the season.

[Spohawk5092]

I can see this coming down to the Rams game to decide the NFC west championship.

[River Dog]

I can see this coming down to the Rams game to decide the NFC west championship.

Yep. It's not only possible, but I think it's likely.

We're currently tied for first with the Rams. We have a tough game coming up next week vs. the Vikings before heading to Chicago to play the Bears on the day after Christmas before we head to LA. Even if we lose one of those two and the Rams win out (they play the Jets and Cards), we can still win the division via a tiebreaker.

There's a possibility that our game with the Rams could get assigned to one of the two Saturday time slots in Week 18. If you look at the Week 18 schedule, no team has a time/date assigned to it.

[NorthHawk]

What do you mean? Our O-line is usually all draft picks and young guys isn't it?

Nope. We drafted a few OL here and there but no Center of note during JS tenure and we've continually signed older cheap FAs at Guard. Is Cross worth re-signing to a top contract - how about Lucas, can he stay healthy?
The IOL under JS has for the most part been a collection of other teams castoffs and older players drafted high by other teams but at the end of their careers - 1 year rentals then gone the next year.
But after 15 drafts under JS, I doubt the script will change and we will again look for the Tomlinson types to fill out the IOL instead of drafting good young players and develop them in house.

[Rambo2014]

I am puffed!!!!!!!!


Rams on road to the SB

[River Dog]

What do you mean? Our O-line is usually all draft picks and young guys isn't it?

Nope. We drafted a few OL here and there but no Center of note during JS tenure and we've continually signed older cheap FAs at Guard. Is Cross worth re-signing to a top contract - how about Lucas, can he stay healthy?
The IOL under JS has for the most part been a collection of other teams castoffs and older players drafted high by other teams but at the end of their careers - 1 year rentals then gone the next year.
But after 15 drafts under JS, I doubt the script will change and we will again look for the Tomlinson types to fill out the IOL instead of drafting good young players and develop them in house.

Center in particular is a position where we've used several older, cheaper FA's. Austin Blythe was one, Evan Brown another. We haven't had stability at the position since we traded away Max Unger without a plan to replace him other than "next man up!"

A couple of years ago, I went through an exercise where I assigned a number to a position according to its draft position over the course of Pete's regime. The result was that it was heavily weighted towards receivers and running backs and very light on offensive linemen.

[NorthHawk]

The result was that it was heavily weighted towards receivers and running backs and very light on offensive linemen.

A series of 1 year rentals along the IOL and outside of a few attempts at drafting OT's it's been the same there. During Cables tenure it seems the default was draft an OT and if he made it, great but if not then slide him inside. Unfortunately they then didn't allow time for those players to develop inside and we cut them loose. We still see former Seahawk OL draft picks on other teams 5 years later.
I think it's just Schneiders philosophy and won't change even with the evidence of continuing bad play this year. I hope he proves me wrong this year and we select very good IOL prospects to properly develop.

The Schneider/MacDonald dynamic would be interesting to see considering MacDonald comes from the Baltimore/Harbaugh tree and they value IOL and Schneider's seeming reticence to take good IOL early.

[Spohawk5092]

Yep. It's not only possible, but I think it's likely.

We're currently tied for first with the Rams. We have a tough game coming up next week vs. the Vikings before heading to Chicago to play the Bears on the day after Christmas before we head to LA. Even if we lose one of those two and the Rams win out (they play the Jets and Cards), we can still win the division via a tiebreaker.

There's a possibility that our game with the Rams could get assigned to one of the two Saturday time slots in Week 18. If you look at the Week 18 schedule, no team has a time/date assigned to it.[/quote]


THats my feeling. Rams will win out till they play us, and 1st will be on the line......its really up to the Hawks now.