Playoff odds and other "feel good" data

[Long Time Fan]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/week ... yoff-odds/

Among other tidbits, Seahawks are, according their analysis, favored to win the division.

Who would have thunk it from 3-3, or even three weeks ago?

[Uppercut]

Sounds nice, but its going to be a tough road for the next three games. ARZ wants to hold on like we did last year and we play there. SF is desperate and we need to play great. The Rams are the biggest worry, nothing they would like better would knock us out of the lead or the playoffs if they could. The Rams are playing like the Hawks at the end of 2012. Scary stuff out there but can be done.

[HumanCockroach]

Kind of funny how much each week, and each game towards the end here matters. If Arizona drops this game on the road, and Seattle takes care of business against the Niners, Seattle could somehow be playing to lock the division the following game in Arizona ( at least if I am reading this stuff right) no matter what happens after somehow would be moot as Seattle would hold all the tiebreakers with Arizona at that point and the best Arizona could do would be to tie Seattle if it played out that way.

Not that it is all that important currently as both a loss tonight by them, a Seahawks victory over SF and another victory on the road in Arizona the following week is required, just seems odd how quickly the Cards have "fallen" ( though they really haven't) and how quickly Seattle has "risen" Seattle currently may be in a better position as strange as that sounds simply because of two home as opposed to two road games left.

Arizona hasn't performed particularily well on the road, and face two teams in the final three in their stadiums. I wouldn't be shocked to see the division locked next SNF time by Seattle in the least. Doesn't mean it will happen, just that it wouldn't be surprising at this point. Not sure if the Cardinals defense can continue to magically pull out games, it sure isn't the offense keeping that team afloat.

[Long Time Fan]

There remains works to be done. Three game gauntlets are nothing new to the Seahawks (N.O., SF, Denver).

This season's schedule has seemed particularly difficult with the mantle of defending champs carried into each game. The beauty of the NFL is that with a 16 game season, each game has gravity. With the challenges to this point and the relative health of the squad, I expect that we will see the Seahawks playing at their season's best from here on out. It will be a glorious run should they repeat.

[Hawk Sista]

We are nowhere near a shoein. But me likes the way we are coming together. Proud of this squad.

#gohawks #effthewhiners

[NorthHawk]

These look to be the three toughest games of they year now.
SF will either be ultra competitive or roll over, but the Cards are desperate and the Rams are on a hot streak.
The Rams are a lot like us with a solid Defense but without a franchise QB. If they get one, this Division will be even tougher because they have a lot of the pieces in place to have a better Offense than us.

[Hawk Sista]

Im not expecting the NINERS to roll over. I think the whole rest of the season will be closer than any of us would like. Wish we were still doubted by the media to make the playoffs. This is a proud Niner team, most of whom love their coach and will want to play for him.

[Hawktawk]

Im not expecting the NINERS to roll over. I think the whole rest of the season will be closer than any of us would like. Wish we were still doubted by the media to make the playoffs. This is a proud Niner team, most of whom love their coach and will want to play for him.

EXACTLY. When the Hawks were 3-3 and reeling their obituary had been written by the media. 6-1 since with a nail biter loss in a very tough stadium with bad refs, they have quietly been one of the best teams in the league for nearly two months.

I'm not comfortable with a 10 point spread.I hate that spread,but Vegas isn't stupid. Still any of the 3 teams we will face have a punchers chance, and as Ryan proved last week and the Rams first time around it isn't always the offensive vs defensive match ups that beat you or put you in a hole. I think the 9ers are going to be very intense to start this game and Seattle needs to smash them and pedal to the metal. Sunday is crucial for both team but it is an absolute must win for the 9ers. I think Seattle will win and they should cover but its the 9ers with the disrespect card to play on Sunday.

[RiverDog]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/week-15-nfl-elo-ratings-and-playoff-odds/

Among other tidbits, Seahawks are, according their analysis, favored to win the division.

Who would have thunk it from 3-3, or even three weeks ago?

I actually like our predicament this year vs. where we were last season at this time. Last year, December was a huge slump for us as we went 2-2 down the stretch, let the Saints hang with us in the playoffs while doing our damnedest to hand them a victory, and didn't play our 'A' game in the NFCCG. This season, with the possible exception of our opener against the Pack, we are playing our best football of the season and peaking at just the right time. If we could just get the Packers to lose one more game, the road to the Super Bowl will go through Seattle.

[Long Time Fan]

If ......... the road to the Super Bowl will go through Seattle.

Looks who has bloomed optimist! Thatta dog!

I like our chances better than anyone in the NFC. Certainly, I would love HFA throughout, but I don't fear GB at lambau field; I think that we match up particularly well with them.

[Zorn76]

We're gonna win out and keep our divisional crown.

[NorthHawk]

The good thing is a playoff spot is in our hands.
The Cards will have to win out to win the Division, so it might look pretty good right now.
However, in-division games in the NFC West are the hardest to win so it will be tough for us but we have a very good chance.

[RiverDog]

The good thing is a playoff spot is in our hands.
The Cards will have to win out to win the Division, so it might look pretty good right now.
However, in-division games in the NFC West are the hardest to win so it will be tough for us but we have a very good chance.

Not necessarily, unless you assume that we beat both the Niners and the Rams.

[Agent 86]

Since we got our title last year with HFA throughout, I am getting a bid greedy this year.

There is nothing more I want than for the 'Hawks to go into Lambeau and put the Packers to bed in the NFCCG this year.

I keep hearing from my Pack buddies that even through RW3 and the 'Hawks are 2-0 against the Pack, both were at the CLink and one was the Fail Mary.

Seriously, going on the road to win the NFC championship would one up the win the over Frisco last year for that particular game (OK, maybe not, last year was the best game in franchise history at home), but you know what I mean.

'Hawks have not had a meaningful road win in the playoffs since the win over Miami in '83. The win over the 'Skins 2 years ago was not in the same category.

I know I am looking ahead a bit, but that is my dream scenario for this year, 'Hawks and Pack at Lambeau to go to the Super Bowl.

[Hawktawk]

Not going to root against our Hawks winning the division or getting HFA under any circumstances but I agree that Seattle could win in Green Bay. They got beat there by the whiners last postseason and Aaron Rogers was on the field. Hawks are the Whiners with a supercharger and the legion generally feasts on these high octane offenses.If that's how it went down it would be sweet and they could STFU about the "Golden Hail Mary" once and for all

[Hawk Sista]

I kinda like the scenario of winning in Lambeau. I also like the idea of beating Golden Tate and his big talk about how much we need him.

[Zorn76]

The Packers are on fire right now, winners in 9 out of their last 10, and are undefeated at home.

They've scored 100 more pts than us offensively, but have surrendered 70 more on the other side of the ball.

Their 3 losses are all road games, obviously.

At the end of the day, though, it remains that defense wins championships.

They are definitely capable of beating us if we end up in Lambeau, but we would have better odds of pulling it off than they would for a road playoff game, IMO.

It's no coincidence that 2 of GB's losses came against good defenses (us and Detroit, with the latter being overrated, IMO).

That said, HFA would greatly increase our odds of defending our SB championship.

There's no denying that, lol. But if we do have to take the show on the road, we'd still have a good shot. We're 4-3 away from The Clink, one of only 4 teams in the conference to be above .500 away.

[burrrton]

Feel like I want to ask this:

Anyone else feel nervous about tomorrow?

I do, because I still think the Niners have the personnel to put together a good game, and almost literally *nobody* is picking the Niners (which makes me nervous).

Agree or disagree?

[NorthHawk]

Feel like I want to ask this:

Anyone else feel nervous about tomorrow?

I do, because I still think the Niners have the personnel to put together a good game, and almost literally *nobody* is picking the Niners (which makes me nervous).

Agree or disagree?

I agree with that.
They are like a snake at this point where they could bite at any time.

[Zorn76]

Nervous?

Only in the sense that if we win, we'll be that much closer to winning the division again.

I'm going to be much more nervous heading into AZ a week from tomorrow.

While each season is different from the last - and this year is far different than a year ago - I take solace in the fact that Kaepernick has played terribly at The Clink, especially in regular season games, and when they were a much better team to boot.

It's more than coincidence at this point.

We are in his head.

And as it is, he's in his own head, over thinking his play and decisions in general.

They are going to need every imaginable break today - ST blocked punts or FG's, a return for a TD on a kickoff or punt, etc. They are not going to be able to score via long, time consuming drives, unless we're talking field goals. And 3's aren't going to be enough for them to win. They don't have the defense to carry them through those 13-17 pt offensive games anymore.

Meanwhile, we are going to test them.

Look for Marshawn to run early and often, then go play action and take a few shots relatively deep (20+ yds).

I think (hope) that Bevell will mix the calls up. Maybe pass on 1st down here and there - but have Beast in the backfield when doing so. Use two back sets, but end up throwing a quick slant (not bubble screen) to Baldwin or Kearse. That kind of thing.

I think DB has to be careful about having RW run too much. SF does have the speed on the outside to kill that. I love having Wilson roll out right away on some plays. I also think that there may be some QB draws that could be open for Russell to run up the middle. The 49ers are going to be very aggressive tomorrow, because what they did last time clearly did not work.

Desperate times...
I think SF will attempt to mix up their coverages and blitz more, but get burned, badly, in the process.

On offense, they will need to establish rhythm and sustain it. They've had a difficult time this year putting together a full, effective, offensive game. In fact, it's happened only a couple times this year, at most.

I dunno. I just don't see them pulling this off. About the only real suspense, IMO, is if they can cover a 10 pt spread.

And I don't think they will.

Seattle, 31-13.

Go Seahawks!!!

[RiverDog]

Feel like I want to ask this:

Anyone else feel nervous about tomorrow?

I do, because I still think the Niners have the personnel to put together a good game, and almost literally *nobody* is picking the Niners (which makes me nervous).

Agree or disagree?

I'm always nervous, whether it be facing Denver in the Super Bowl or the Raiders at home in the regular season. You know the saying: On any given Sunday....

What makes me nervous in this game is Kaepernick. Out of all the players on the 3 rosters of our remaining opponents, he is the only one that can singlehandedly beat us, and indeed, he has burned us before, in the NFCCG. As our opponents know all too well, a scrambling quarterback is the most difficult thing to defense.

Plus the Niners are a wounded bear. On Thanksgiving in front of a national TV audience and in their own house, we ate their dinner, spit on their floor, slept with their sister, then stunk up their bathroom. Now they are virtually eliminated from the playoffs, so there's no reason for them not to pull out all the stops and throw their entire book of secrets out on the field. They have nothing to lose, so we need to be ready for stuff like onsides kicks and fake punts no matter what the situation is.

[monkey]

I wasn't nervous playing the Eagles, because we were so much better than them, and I'm less nervous playing the Niners.
Actually I'm sort of sad...this game will mark the end of a truly great era of football, it will mark the end of the rivalry as we've come to know it, with Pete and Harbaugh against Wilson and Kaepernick, etc... too many NIners will lose their jobs this offseason.
It's just not the same with the Lambs or Tards either.
It's just so easy to loathe the Niners and their loathsome fans. Now, even trying to salvage their dignity will seem funny to me.
Richard Sherman is the main culprit, he told Kaep not to try the best with that sorry receiver, not to try the best, and Kaep just REFUSED to learn...and now Sherman is so far in their collective heads that there's simply no way to evict him, and it's going to cost them their coach at least, maybe their QB as well soon.

Sort of pathetic really, the Seahawks will deliver the inevitable knock out blow to the once great rivalry, and that will be the end of it...the end of a truly great era of football.

[Hawktawk]

I kinda like the scenario of winning in Lambeau. I also like the idea of beating Golden Tate and his big talk about how much we need him.

Seattle would be better on offense with Tate, no question about it and his impact in the return game would be huge. Seattle may win it all regardless, which would prove we didn't"need" Tate but the team would be better with him and saying anything else is whistling in the graveyard. I guess if the internet rumor about him being a sancho is true then it was an untenable situation but otherwise it was a stupid blunder by the FO to let him go.

[monkey]

Looks like the Packers (overrated) are about to choke against the Bills. Win out and it's HFA throughout if the Bills hold on.
I think they will, this was my upset of the week in my pick em's.
If not...oh well, they're proving they can be beaten, (we already knew that as we've already done that ).

[Long Time Fan]

The cowboyz could still get NFC HFA throughout. Is anyone at all scared about playing in Jerryworld? Not me.

[HumanCockroach]

Much more would have to fall perfectly for the Boys to gain the number one seed than others, but it "could" happen. As for playing in Dallas, at this point, one could argue that it would be an advantage as the Boys are undefeated on the road, and currently have a losing record at home ( 3-4). Still not a lot of faith in the Cowboys winning out, and think Philly takes that division ( yep even with the Sanchize playing .... Well like the Sanchize in recent weeks) see Dallas dropping one this week, Philly winning last two, GB OR DETROIT winning last two ( both winning this week with the division winner taking the two seed, and loser getting the second WC), Seattle finishing strong as the one seed, Detroit and Zona being the two WC and an 11 win Cowboys sitting at home....

Could be completely off on that, but it is how I see it...

Seattle 12-4 seed 1
GB. 12-4 seed 2
Philly. 11-5 seed 3
Car. 6-9-1 seed 4

Ari. 11-5 Seed 5
Det. 11-5 seed 6

Out

Dallas. 11-5

[Long Time Fan]

I think that a Philly loss, however unlikely, on the road in Washington on Saturday, clinches a playoff spot for the Seahawks. Of course there are bigger fish still to fry.

[Hawkstar]

I think that a Philly loss, however unlikely, on the road in Washington on Saturday, clinches a playoff spot for the Seahawks. Of course there are bigger fish still to fry.

I thought the Philly L would secure a spot for us as well, but apparently the loss clinched a spot for the Lions. It the Eagles win their last game as we lose two (not happening) we still have the Head to Head win as well as a better record in the NFC. What am I missing? How did the Hawks not clinch yesterday?

[HumanCockroach]

Dallas factors into the not clinching. If Dallas loses two, Philly wins next week Seattle drops two, Seattle and Dallas tie for final WC with Philly winning the division... In essence just WIN however ugly Seattle, and they take what they want, don't leave it to others. GO HAWKS! And yes I expect to win the division, and HFA, everything is there for the taking.

[Agent 86]

So with the Lions and Packers both winning today, as long as they don't tie next week ( the Pack play the Lions), the Hawks will get the #1 seed if they win both of their games.

Is that correct?......it would not matter what Dallas does.

There would be 3 teams tied at 12-4, in which the Hawks have the tiebreaker.

[mykc14]

So with the Lions and Packers both winning today, as long as they don't tie next week ( the Pack play the Lions), the Hawks will get the #1 seed if they win both of their games.

Is that correct?......it would not matter what Dallas does.

There would be 3 teams tied at 12-4, in which the Hawks have the tiebreaker.

That is correct!