Trump Impeachment Predictions

[RiverDog]

ASF, besides calling him a narcissist, you sound like an apologist for anything he does. You probably like Jordan and Nunes. We’re all stupid and you and ID are right about everything. Right?

ASF can speak for himself and doesn't need me to defend him, but I don't get that impression at all. He's slammed Trump as hard for his personal traits as anyone in the forum except for Hawktalk. He assess Trump's IQ as being quite a bit higher than I would and might support, or at least doesn't have as vociferous objections as some of us might, to Trump's policies, but him and I agree on the long term effect his presidency will have on the country.

There's no one that I have come across in this forum that supports, even idolizes, Donald Trump in every aspect, including personal characteristics, foreign and domestic policy, just about everything the man does, as is the case with Idahawkman. Comparing any of the posters with him is grossly inaccurate, and I'm not saying that to imply any disrespect to ID. He's entitled to his opinion like any of the rest of us and not for me to judge.

[I-5]

I wasn't equating him necessarily with ID in every way...if it sounded like it, my apologies. I just think he gives Trump WAAAY too much credit for knowing what he's doing, and I disagree with both of your assessment that this speed bump won't leave a scar on the office. It will never be the same.

[RiverDog]

I wasn't equating him necessarily with ID in every way...if it sounded like it, my apologies. I just think he gives Trump WAAAY too much credit for knowing what he's doing, and I disagree with both of your assessment that this speed bump won't leave a scar on the office. It will never be the same.

Oh, I agree that the office won't be the same. One of the things that Trump has permanently changed is his extensive use of Twitter, essentially bypassing the press to get his version of events out unfiltered. That's not necessarily a bad thing. The problem is that Trump abuses it, isn't truthful in the statements he makes over it, and uses it as a weapon to launch into personal attacks.

If there's a clone of Trump out there, ie someone with a lot of money, a well recognized name, and a penchant for making things up, then maybe. But I don't see anyone out there remotely like Donald Trump that would be able to take advantage of some of the things that has made him successful. He's an anomaly.

And let's not let the left off the hook, either. They have helped widened the gap and made a person like Donald Trump possible. Their attacks on him have made him stronger within his base. For some odd reason, people that have very little in common with Trump other than being old, white, and male, have displaced the personal attacks and hate of him as being directed at them. As a member of that demographic group and although I personally don't agree with that logic, I can understand how people can react in that way.

[I-5]

The dems are definitely not without blame in how they've pursued the process. On that I agree. However, nothing is more alarming or disheartening that watching Graham go against his own principles to support Trump at any cost. It's depressing and embarassing to watch him stoop so low, because I would think he is a higher level of being than Nunes and Jordan, who are basically court clowns at this point. Nothing they tried on Fiona Hill, David Holmes, or Lt Colonel Vindman worked for them...all they have left is to spin one conspiracy theory after another. And a bunch of republican congressmen STILL insinuate that Ukraine was involved in 2016 election meddling...

Why wouldn't there be a Trump clone or worse out there? There are plenty of people who would love to create themselves in that mold and more.

[RiverDog]

The dems are definitely not without blame in how they've pursued the process. On that I agree. However, nothing is more alarming or disheartening that watching Graham go against his own principles to support Trump at any cost. It's depressing and embarassing to watch him stoop so low, because I would think he is a higher level of being than Nunes and Jordan, who are basically court clowns at this point. Nothing they tried on Fiona Hill, David Holmes, or Lt Colonel Vindman worked for them...all they have left is to spin one conspiracy theory after another. And a bunch of republican congressmen STILL insinuate that Ukraine was involved in 2016 election meddling...[/I]

Yea, Graham is disgusting in his hypocrisy. He's just one of many that I've lost respect for since Trump took office, another being Rudy G., who I used to really like.

Why wouldn't there be a Trump clone or worse out there? There are plenty of people who would love to create themselves in that mold and more.

Money and name recognition for starters. There's only a handful of people that meet both those requirements, and I'd have a hard time believing that they'd share Trump's personal characteristics, which are truly rare. Most people that have a lot of money aren't interested in politics and those they are, like Michael Bloomberg, don't have a recognizable name/face. Everyone knew who Donald Trump was long before he became interested in politics.

[RiverDog]

Back to the OP.

This week's impeachment polling remains flat as the RCP average of those favoring impeachment/removal from office not having moved a tick, with roughly 48% favoring impeachment/removal and 46% opposed, same as last week. Republican support remains high, at 87%, an indication that impeachment is still a very partisan issue.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6957.html

Sorry, my friends, but we're going to have to wait another year before we kick this POS to the curb.

[Hawktawk]

Never going to stick obstruction for a manufactured Russian collusion investigation. Not sure why you don't see the fact that this Russian collusion investigation was a trash investigation manufactured by the Dems using foreign intelligence. Not sure why you're ok with that and not OK with what Trump did.

Then again I doubt you care about the truth and are just another get rid of Trump at all costs so I can go back to not caring about all the real corruption that is practiced by both of these parties like Hawktawk who doesn't really care about about this country or truth, he just cares about hating Trump. You two seem cut from a similar cloth. Completely ignore corrupt behavior if the person giving you this behavior is from your preferred party and you don't hate him. Otherwise ignore all the vile crap they do.

I dont care about the country????No that's you and your ilk who didn't think Russia was a big deal, dont think Ukraine is a big deal, dont give a $#1t about the worst most corrupt president ever to infect the oval office.Only Nixon comes close and he was a choir boy compared to Trump.
And stop with Iraq and other military actions ordered by presidents. Those were misjudgements made in an attempt to keep this country safe. There is no comparable person in the history of the US presidency to be so Amoral, feckless, personally corrupt and dishonest, so willing to use foreign powers to benefit himself and only himself to win the highest office on the planet.If you think there was anyone like this ever the president please name this person and misguided military ventures dont count .

There's something worth hating, something every patriotic american should hate and frankly I think those who just say Oh ho hum no biggie i like my 401K or the wall or a drunk rapist on the SCOTUS or whatever it is are a lot short on patriotism.There is no amount of good news worth leaving this guy in power. I hate , despise Trump because I love our constitution. I loathe him because I love the institution of the POTUS,The balance of powers, the rule of law, the free and adversarial media, the men and women who serve this nation, our allies like Ukraine that are the thin line protecting us from Russian aggression(which is no big deal to you apparently). You're delusional to dismiss the Russian investigation too. He should have been impeached when it was released its so devastating. But you see it like the average trumpie. For a guy who says you dont like him you have the talking points down pretty good.


There's something worth detesting here. Do not question my love for this country. And his "party" which was once the republican party WAS MY PARTY OF CHOICE so dont start ragging on me about preferred parties or partisanship. I've got plenty of credibility when I say hate this guy.And it started a week after he came down the escalator and I've been exactly correct in my assessment of what kind of president he would be. You have no credibility with your wishy washy all over every side of the issue on an issue where a patriotic american should pick a side. You probably voted for him and will again.

[RiverDog]

I dont care about the country????No that's you and your ilk who didn't think Russia was a big deal, dont think Ukraine is a big deal, dont give a $#1t about the worst most corrupt president ever to infect the oval office.Only Nixon comes close and he was a choir boy compared to Trump.
And stop with Iraq and other military actions ordered by presidents. Those were misjudgements made in an attempt to keep this country safe. There is no comparable person in the history of the US presidency to be so Amoral, feckless, personally corrupt and dishonest, so willing to use foreign powers to benefit himself and only himself to win the highest office on the planet.If you think there was anyone like this ever the president please name this person and misguided military ventures dont count .

There's something worth hating, something every patriotic american should hate and frankly I think those who just say Oh ho hum no biggie i like my 401K or the wall or a drunk rapist on the SCOTUS or whatever it is are a lot short on patriotism.There is no amount of good news worth leaving this guy in power. I hate , despise Trump because I love our constitution. I loathe him because I love the institution of the POTUS,The balance of powers, the rule of law, the free and adversarial media, the men and women who serve this nation, our allies like Ukraine that are the thin line protecting us from Russian aggression(which is no big deal to you apparently). You're delusional to dismiss the Russian investigation too. He should have been impeached when it was released its so devastating. But you see it like the average trumpie. For a guy who says you dont like him you have the talking points down pretty good.


There's something worth detesting here. Do not question my love for this country. And his "party" which was once the republican party WAS MY PARTY OF CHOICE so dont start ragging on me about preferred parties or partisanship. I've got plenty of credibility when I say hate this guy.And it started a week after he came down the escalator and I've been exactly correct in my assessment of what kind of president he would be. You have no credibility with your wishy washy all over every side of the issue on an issue where a patriotic american should pick a side. You probably voted for him and will again.

Drunk rapist on SCOTUS? Even Dr. Ford's 3 decades old allegations don't accuse him of rape. I don't blame you for getting defensive when your patriotism is question, but holy cow!

[Hawktawk]

Good point . Ms Blasi Ford reported an attempted rape , not a successful one but you get the point I am sure . If I hear we can’t remove him cause of all the great stuff he’s done one more time I’ll scream. Wrong is wrong, corrupt is corrupt.

[RiverDog]

Good point . Ms Blasi Ford reported an attempted rape , not a successful one but you get the point I am sure . If I hear we can’t remove him cause of all the great stuff he’s done one more time I’ll scream. Wrong is wrong, corrupt is corrupt.

Dr. Ford didn't report an attempted rape. Her statement was that she "thought" he was going to rape her. A person thinking that someone might commit a crime doesn't constitute an attempt, which is a crime in and of itself.

Even if we were to accept Dr. Ford's 37 year old recollections as being the correct version of events, you're looking for terms to add to your description to make it sound worse than what it was. Try reigning in your penchant for inflammatory, overly dramatic terminology and perhaps others won't shoot as many poison darts your direction.

No one said that we can't remove Trump because of all the great stuff he's done. The reason some of his accomplishments might have been highlighted in this discussion is to support the argument that our country isn't that bad off now and would easily put Trump's time as POTUS behind us.

Speaking for myself, I've never said that we "can't" impeach Trump. I'm only recognizing the reality that he's not going to be removed from office and that impeachment might be counterproductive to those of us that want to see him gone.

[Hawktawk]

Ms Blasi Ford reported that he ground himself on her swimsuit clad body then attempted to rip off her one piece swimming suit. I’d say she had pretty good reason to fear being raped . Between that and flashing his dong at frat parties on a couple of occasions he’s never actually been accused of raping someone , just sexual assault. The potus is the one credibly accused of actual rape among other sexual crimes .


But I didn’t really mean to drag this whole subject up . Should have just said conservative justices.


But I believe what i believe and I believe the accusers of these men. There’s a guy who will be sitting in judgement of us all for decades that should have a rap sheet, should have been facing a judge and jury. It’s an outrage , one of many in the legacy of this Administration .

[RiverDog]

Ms Blasi Ford reported that he ground himself on her swimsuit clad body then attempted to rip off her one piece swimming suit. I’d say she had pretty good reason to fear being raped . Between that and flashing his dong at frat parties on a couple of occasions he’s never actually been accused of raping someone , just sexual assault. The potus is the one credibly accused of actual rape among other sexual crimes .

I once tried to take off a girl's blouse and got my hands slapped. Does that mean I was attempting to rape her? The "flashing his dong" was an unproven accusation. You're stating it as if it were a fact. That's exactly what I mean by your inflammatory, overly dramatic terminology.

But I didn’t really mean to drag this whole subject up . Should have just said conservative justices.

Agreed. The SCOTUS appointments, along with crimes that the POTUS may or may not have committed when not in office, are not related to the OP. The subject is impeachment.

[Hawktawk]

Like I say. I believe the women in the case of kavanaugh and trump and view their statements as fact . As for your hand slap story not gonna go there other than to say MS Blasiford reported being 15 and being dragged into a room by 2 drunk guys kavanaugh who was a high school basketball star and mark judge and having kavanaugh pin her down , put his hand over her mouth to stop her screams and then tried ripping her swimsuit off. When mark judge came over to join in the two “ stumbling drunk”’guys knocked one another off her and she escaped . Sounds a little different from some high school makeout session gone too far to me but you be the judge . As for the exposing himself stuff there were actually lots of witnesses, over 30 but none were interviewed.

I believe the women . Period . We have scum in the White House and on the scotus

[RiverDog]

Like I say. I believe the women in the case of kavanaugh and trump and view their statements as fact.

You'd get kicked off a jury in a New York minute if you ever made a statement like that to an attorney that you were so quick to believe one person's statement over another person's denial, and if you were to express that kind of bias in a job interview that involved any kind of supervisory or leadership duties, your application would be sent straight to the waste basket. You lack the ability to determine what's factual and what isn't.

[Hawktawk]

[

You'd get kicked off a jury in a New York minute if you ever made a statement like that to an attorney that you were so quick to believe one person's statement over another person's denial, and if you were to express that kind of bias in a job interview that involved any kind of supervisory or leadership duties, your application would be sent straight to the waste basket. You lack the ability to determine what's factual and what isn't.

It wasn't a trial, it was a job interview for a lifetime appointment to the SCOTUS. If it was for McDonald's shift manager your entire life is not relevant for the interview but when you're going to sit in Judgement of all of us for 3 or 4 decades everything is fair game. I believe only people of the highest integrity and impeccable reputation should sit on that court regardless of ideology.

As for determining what's factual and what's not in this instance its pretty simple, someone's lying and someone is telling the truth. You have to use common sense about who has the motivation to lie, who has the motivation to tell the truth and look at the full extenuating circumstances and to me it's pretty obvious he's lying.He's a rich preppie jock boy who spent his high school and college years hammered and behaving inappropriately with women. When he got nominated for SCOTUS it caught up with him although it didn't mean a G@Damn thing in the republican Senate.

If someone can explain the motivation by numerous women all who could prove proximity to him at the times in question to just make up a bunch of stuff have at it.

Why get drug through the mud by the Trump machine for telling lies when you know Trump would just nominate another conservative justice anyway? Why didn't Gorsuch who is a far better qualified and possibly more conservative Justice face this treatment, this hoax? Did he have no contacts with women growing up so they could also make up stuff?

As an example of whos lying Ms Ramirez who reported him exposing himself is pictured in several photographs with him in a small group of people during the time they were both in college even though he said he's never met her. Blasiford took a polygraph and passed. Kavanaugh declined to take one even though on his previous court he wrote the majority opinion validating law enforcement using them in decisions regarding indicting suspects. All of a sudden they are unreliable

He is who they said he is. I believe them. Much of the country agrees with me on this as well, tens of millions of people so if I'm out in left field on this I've got lots of company

It doesn't matter though because he skated due to Unamerican borderline treasonous Trump party Senators and its the same reason Trump is gonna skate too.

[Hawktawk]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... ar-AADKLI1

I've been looking at this every day. These numbers have stabilized with a clear majority favoring impeachment and removal, only separated by a point or so from his overall approval disapproval #. In terms of him being removed from office I dont think that would happen if he dropped into the high 20% range. It's still enough for the fanatics in the base to primary you if you vote with the dems and do the right thing. R Senators other than the 3 or 4 everyone talks about are not going to break ranks.
The risk right now for Dems is with independents in swing states who are not watching much of this according to surveys that show people paying close attention are solidly in favor of removal . Independent support has dropped from a solid majority in favor of impeachment to even or slightly underwater depending on the poll. A prominent black democrat congresswoman, harris supporter long in favor of impeachment and in a solid blue district reversed her position and now favors censure https://www.nationalreview.com/news/dem ... peachment/.

Pelosi can only afford so many defections or lose a massively embarrassing floor vote. Its impeachable conduct and the right thing to do is vote for it whether the Senate wants to go along or not. But if the Dems should make a political decision to blink and propose censure I think their base would be so demoralized they would lose next November. They are damned if they do and damned if they dont.

[RiverDog]

Pelosi can only afford so many defections or lose a massively embarrassing floor vote. Its impeachable conduct and the right thing to do is vote for it whether the Senate wants to go along or not. But if the Dems should make a political decision to blink and propose censure I think their base would be so demoralized they would lose next November. They are damned if they do and damned if they dont.

Which is why I said that the Dems are crazy for pursuing impeachment. There's no way that they'll ever get Trump removed and they're running the risk of having the same results that the Republicans had when they impeached Clinton. They would have been better off simply holding hearings but not associating it with an impeachment inquiry. It's not worth the risk.

[Hawktawk]

Which is why I said that the Dems are crazy for pursuing impeachment. There's no way that they'll ever get Trump removed and they're running the risk of having the same results that the Republicans had when they impeached Clinton. They would have been better off simply holding hearings but not associating it with an impeachment inquiry. It's not worth the risk.

I dont agree although I do agree. Its politically more perilous for dems to impeach than just let the swamp boil over on its own and take their shot next november. That would be the politically smart thing to do, the politically expedient thing.

Both Pelosi and Schiff resisted a formal inquiry for that reason in spite of wall to wall obstruction of congress in their attempts to interview the mueller report witnesses. It was only after it was revealed Trump had called the new Ukrainian pres Zielinski and suborned a political favor using the power of the taxpayers purse and circumventing congress ONE DAY AFTER MUELLER TESTIFIED that a formal inquiry was launched.As Schiff said his decision to support a formal inquiry was about "timing" that this president was brazen and tone deaf enough to do such a thing as mueller was testifying to the congress.

I truly believe democrats are doing their constitutional bidding in spite of what they know it might cost them and I totally respect that and agree with it.

Republicans on the other hand are behaving in the most despicable fashion imaginable even though they KNOW this president has broken laws and should be removed. Jeff Flake said a month ago that if the senate vote were held in secret probably 35 senate republicans would vote to impeach. But they will not do the right thing because it might cost them their seat, maybe their senate majority. Its despicable.

I read an opinion piece today that suggested the republican party should be voted out of existence for what they are allowing to happen. I dont know how this impeachment thing will wind up breaking. As I see it the Dem candidate will have a similar challenge as HRC, an unpopular Republican President, historically in that he's never crested 50%. His current support among women is in the low 30% range,really hes lost ground among almost every demographic group. His last couple of trips to help candidates in tight races have failed in purple and red states. Republicans are getting killed in the suburbs. The only real path for him in 2020 is to pick off the swing states and that's where the impeachment thing is unclear in terms of polling.

IMO if the democrats cant beat Trump in 2020 minus Putin actually altering votes its their own fault. They nominated a whacked leftist,Medicare for all, free medical for illegals, new green deal etc. Or maybe Butigeig who I like a lot but dont think he can win nationally with the amount of prejudice in this country. Maybe Biden gets to the general and his mental decline continues.

But it shouldn't be about impeachment, I think everyone understands the president did something wrong. Someone being opposed to impeachment and actually still supporting and voting for the guy getting impeached are 2 different things IMO it's a 50-50 wild card.

[RiverDog]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/daily-presidential-tracking-poll/ar-AADKLI1

I've been looking at this every day. These numbers have stabilized with a clear majority favoring impeachment and removal, only separated by a point or so from his overall approval disapproval #

I've been watching them for the past couple months, too. The favoring impeachment/removal from office is technically a "majority", but it's still trending under 50% and has been flat for weeks despite some otherwise Earth shaking revelations.

What we need to be watching is Trump's support amongst Republicans. Only if impeachment is a bipartisan issue will we stand a chance of ridding ourselves of this POS ahead of the 2020 elections. It's a helluva dice throw.

[Hawktawk]

I 100% believe there is no way the Senate flips 20 senators . Some of McConnell and Graham’s statements lead to a belief that 3 or 4 could vote with democrats which is significant in stopping McConnell from short circuiting the process. In theory if these senators hold that line he’s technically guilty but not removed. But I don’t care. I’ve been calling for this for a long time. If the dude can’t be jailed , impeached etc or maybe the Dems screw it up and lose then the least we should expect to see is the most deserved I word in history by his name forever.

[Hawktawk]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/ Hes solidly underwater in every poll. Even Rasmussen has him 6 points underwater..

This is an interesting poll as it is interactive and allows one to easily compare Trump's overall popularity with that of the last quite a few Pres at this stage of their term. He is historically unpopular, worse numbers than anyone but Jimmy Carter at this point and still the only guy never to hit 50% in any average of polls.

Like I say, If dems lose this in Nov 2020 barring a snowball in hell successful impeachment or some health issue taking him out of the office it's their own fault and it isn't going to be about this impeachment. It will be a campaign issue for sure but well over half the country thinks he did something wrong, 54% in latest polls still support the inquiry. Only among Independents has popularity for removal sagged and it still registers in the mid 40s for and against with 10% or so undecided . I guess if they are independents they dont like a lot of stuff either party does , I can relate ,but they still go out and make the best choice in their opinion at the ballot box as they are not nearly as tethered to a particular ideology.

If Trump wants to go out at campaign rally after campaign rally and defend himself over this conduct in increasingly unhinged manic speeches go for it. That might be great for the Trumptards in the seats and most of the Fox News people but ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN are going to be playing those quotes too. And they really dont even need to comment as the demeanor and statements by Trump at theses rallies speak for themselves to the 54% and hopefully a few of the 41% at some point.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ROCKY.html This is the president of the united states folks......................
I think this inquiry is going to wind up hardening the bases and motivating them in Nov 2020 but with Trump's overall low popularity throughout his presidency I doubt he's going to pick up new voters or even retain all of them from 2016 no matter how Impeachment winds up.
It's the Dems to win or lose.

[I-5]

I also think he will be impeached but not removed from office, diretly due to the lack of a backbone with the Senate GOP, led by Graham. He knows the facts are not on his side, so he chooses to not read or pay attention to anything.

If Trump is throwing Rudy under the bus (which won't work, since his own words and a million witnesses directlly contradict him), who is there left to sacrifice? Jared? Pence? Ivanka?

[RiverDog]

I also think he will be impeached but not removed from office, diretly due to the lack of a backbone with the Senate GOP, led by Graham. He knows the facts are not on his side, so he chooses to not read or pay attention to anything.

You can't blame Trump's likely retaining his office to just the Republicans in the Senate. Nearly all of the Republican Congressmen are against removing him from office, too, as is nearly all of his base. Impeachment is still strictly a partisan issue.

I said back in September when Pelosi first announced that impeachment proceedings were to begin that they'd have to get about 60% public support for removal from office, and we've been stuck at 48% for two months.

If Trump is throwing Rudy under the bus (which won't work, since his own words and a million witnesses directlly contradict him), who is there left to sacrifice? Jared? Pence? Ivanka?

Rudy is the wild card. I can't remember who said it, but he's a ticking time bomb. He's the John Dean in waiting if he ever gave up Trump. He's the one person in Trump's inner circle that could cause serious erosion to Trump's base and for 20 R Senators to cave. Personally, I don't think Trump is that stupid, but we'll see.

[Hawktawk]

I think Rudy and Trump are in a precarious position and the only chance to remain relatively unscathed is to stick together and bluster and lie their way through . It may not work but if not only one of them is in serious jeopardy of going to jail so at that point Rudy would need to decide if he wants to go to jail and hope for a pardon. Or spill the beans, cash in that insurance policy and try to get leniency.Im surprised he isn't indicted already and unless Im mistaken any decision SDNY makes has to be cleared by Walrus Barr, the presidents real personal attorney so maybe that's why this is taking so long.

This Ukraine story is incredibly bizarre, gets weirder by the day. Testimony and especially E mails prove everyone that was anybody in this administration was aware of this drug deal including the guy who named it NSA director Bolton.. MulVaney, Pompeio , Perry, even quite possible Pence was aware of the scheme and may have propagated it in his meeting with Zelinski where he pushed for "corruption reform". Then there's Rudy doing personal business on the side while doing trumps bidding without any security clearance whatsoever, not registering as a foreign agent etc. If its all impeachable conduct for the prez what about all the people who were aware of it and enabled it???

Then the bombshell that intelligence committee ranking minority member Devin Nunes was sitting down with Ukrainian oligarchs and former politicians/prosecutors at meetings arranged by indicted Guliani buddy Lev Parnas trying to dig dirt on the Bidens .
WHILE HE WAS OFFICIALLY ON GOVERNMENT BUSINESS AND ON THE TAXPAYERS DIME!!! This was only months before sitting in on an impeachment inquiry in his own committee and being one of the most vocal critics.
Dems say they will censure him. BFD it will be the second time regarding his actions in colluding with a foreign government and he still seems to have his job as a bobblehead sycophant lying POS.

Its like we are becoming more like Ukraine then they are becoming like what used to be america .

[Hawktawk]

I wonder what all the Killary/Vince Foster conspiracy nuts think of this?
https://www.lamag.com/citythinkblog/deu ... ank-death/

[c_hawkbob]

Back to the OP.

This week's impeachment polling remains flat as the RCP average of those favoring impeachment/removal from office not having moved a tick, with roughly 48% favoring impeachment/removal and 46% opposed, same as last week. Republican support remains high, at 87%, an indication that impeachment is still a very partisan issue.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6957.html

Sorry, my friends, but we're going to have to wait another year before we kick this POS to the curb.

And this story illustrates why the Trump presidency is not as benign as a few of you are trying to convince everybody it is: https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-inter ... 34632.html

This cancer is malignant and should excised, or at least I see a responsibility to attempt the excision. I don't think he will be removed via impeachment either, but I agree with Tawk about there being a constitutional imperative to bring the process about.

[RiverDog]

Back to the OP.

This week's impeachment polling remains flat as the RCP average of those favoring impeachment/removal from office not having moved a tick, with roughly 48% favoring impeachment/removal and 46% opposed, same as last week. Republican support remains high, at 87%, an indication that impeachment is still a very partisan issue.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6957.html

Sorry, my friends, but we're going to have to wait another year before we kick this POS to the curb.

And this story illustrates why the Trump presidency is not as benign as a few of you are trying to convince everybody it is: https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-inter ... 34632.html

This cancer is malignant and should excised, or at least I see a responsibility to attempt the excision. I don't think he will be removed via impeachment either, but I agree with Tawk about there being a constitutional imperative to bring the process about.

Agreed on the SEALS story. Trump's intervention was all politics designed to play to his base and is just one more example as to why Trump is such a piss poor CIC. He didn't give a rip about the facts of the case or the recommendations from his subordinates, all he cared about was feathering his own nest.

But it's a short term issue with very few, if any, long term consequences. The military justice system will operate unaffected by this event well into the foreseeable future.

As far as the pursuit of impeachment goes, I agree that it's morally the right thing to do. My argument is that if the goal is to get that POS out of office, the smart move is to let it slide, concentrate all efforts on the 2020 election, and advance the candidate with the best possible chance of winning in November. The problem is that the opposition party is hell bent on self destruction.

And BTW, speaking for myself, I'm not trying to "convince" you or anyone else that the Trump presidency is benign. I'm simply stating my $.02's worth.

[c_hawkbob]

But it's a short term issue with very little if any long term consequences. The military justice system will operate unaffected by this event well into the foreseeable future.

That's certainly the hope, but I don't see it as nearly the given that you do.

[RiverDog]

But it's a short term issue with very little if any long term consequences. The military justice system will operate unaffected by this event well into the foreseeable future.

That's certainly the hope, but I don't see it as nearly the given that you do.

For me, it's more a matter of faith than it is hope.

[Aseahawkfan]

For me, it's more a matter of faith than it is hope.

Keep your faith. America is always changing. Most presidents wouldn't even step into the military justice system. They know to steer clear and let them handle things for the most part.

Though in the short-term this may cause some military personnel that do messed up things to appeal to Trump should they be disciplined. That could be bad for short-term morale.

I'm sure The Narcissist isn't long for the White House. People gotta be tired of this trash. Even if he doesn't get removed from impeachment, I imagine America has to be tired of this constant trash talk. All Biden has to do is not be a total idiot, but I'm not sure he can manage that at this point. I still think a guy like Buttgieg if they gave him a chance might be able to take Trump down. He seems pretty middle of the road and reasonable. Besides his homosexuality, he checks most of the other boxes. I don't think America cares enough about homosexuality if Buttgieg can focus the issues to care other than having a voice that is more reasonable that won't take the country too far left and isn't always screwing up speaking like Biden.

[RiverDog]

For me, it's more a matter of faith than it is hope.

Keep your faith. America is always changing. Most presidents wouldn't even step into the military justice system. They know to steer clear and let them handle things for the most part.

Though in the short-term this may cause some military personnel that do messed up things to appeal to Trump should they be disciplined. That could be bad for short-term morale.

Short term, yes, but from my understanding, that wasn't the jest of what Cbob was saying. Him and I have argued about the long term implications of the Trump presidency.

I'm sure The Narcissist isn't long for the White House. People gotta be tired of this trash. Even if he doesn't get removed from impeachment, I imagine America has to be tired of this constant trash talk. All Biden has to do is not be a total idiot, but I'm not sure he can manage that at this point. I still think a guy like Buttgieg if they gave him a chance might be able to take Trump down. He seems pretty middle of the road and reasonable. Besides his homosexuality, he checks most of the other boxes. I don't think America cares enough about homosexuality if Buttgieg can focus the issues to care other than having a voice that is more reasonable that won't take the country too far left and isn't always screwing up speaking like Biden.

Buttigieg has more than just his sexual orientation to overcome. He's a political novice. He's a mayor of a mid size, college orientated city roughly the same size as Spokane and has never had to appeal to a state wide audience that's a lot more diverse than an urban city. If he gets the nomination, he's going to have to find a very crafty, politically wise campaign manager to run things for him.

The liberal wing of the Democratic party is wringing their hands after Kamala Harris threw in the towel as it leaves their field of candidates with no women of color, an attribute they've been trumpeting since the mid term elections. You can bet your bottom dollar that who ever does get the nomination will select one as their running mate, perhaps Harris herself. If Buttigieg gets the nomination, he's not going to have much say in who his VP will be, which could be a problem as he needs to appeal to moderate voters in the suburbs and ideally it would be best to find a running mate that can help him in swing states.

[I-5]

You're right about the dems wanting a woman of color, but I think Harris, for all of her fire and intelligence, showed herself throughout her campaign an inability to connect with people who weren't already in her base. I think Mayor Pete, even with his limitations and obstacles to overcome, does have that ability to make connections, and across both parties. I'm on record predicting his name will be on the 2020 ticket, either as P or VP. I don't know him well, but he comes across as a decent, patriotic, common sense guy who can appeal to a lot of people.

[RiverDog]

You're right about the dems wanting a woman of color, but I think Harris, for all of her fire and intelligence, showed herself throughout her campaign an inability to connect with people who weren't already in her base. I think Mayor Pete, even with his limitations and obstacles to overcome, does have that ability to make connections, and across both parties. I'm on record predicting his name will be on the 2020 ticket, either as P or VP. I don't know him well, but he comes across as a decent, patriotic, common sense guy who can appeal to a lot of people.

The other liability that Harris has is that she doesn't come from a swing state. Klobuchar from Minnesota would be a better choice.

My opinion of Mayor Pete has changed somewhat since he entered the race, and I could see myself voting for him if he's on the ticket. But I don't think that the Dems will allow him to be anyone's running mate unless it's Warren. IMO they are going to insist that a female, whether or not it's a woman of color, is on the ticket either at the #1 or #2 spot.

But I'm really hoping that Bloomberg gets the nomination, but it's admittedly a long shot. He sure is hitting the air waves with a lot of ads.

[I-5]

Klobuchar would get my vote. She's from a swing state as you say, she is as common sense as they come (you have to be if you're from where she is). Not sure how she would be going up against a circus clown in terms of back and forth, but I'm sure she can handle herself. Put Mayor Pete as VP, that's an interesting ticket.

I've liked Warren for a while, but she seems to get more and more polarizing each day, at least in my view. Amy and Pete don't seem that way.

[RiverDog]

Klobuchar would get my vote. She's from a swing state as you say, she is as common sense as they come (you have to be if you're from where she is). Not sure how she would be going up against a circus clown in terms of back and forth, but I'm sure she can handle herself. Put Mayor Pete as VP, that's an interesting ticket.

I've liked Warren for a while, but she seems to get more and more polarizing each day, at least in my view. Amy and Pete don't seem that way.

Actually I think the best way to respond to the circus clown is not to respond. IMO that was one of HRC's downfall, that she got down in the gutter with Trump. Forget about the insults and name calling and just go about business as usual.

[I-5]

Actually I think the best way to respond to the circus clown is not to respond. IMO that was one of HRC's downfall, that she got down in the gutter with Trump. Forget about the insults and name calling and just go about business as usual.

Which I think is exactly what Klobuchar would do. She's common sense practical.

The question is if voters share any common sense.

[Hawktawk]

Bye bye Harris. Klobuchar up to 10% in latest Iowa poll which shows Biden surging to 1st at 23% sanders right behind at 22, Buttigieg at 18, the fading Warren (yay!) at 16%. Bloomberg is at 5-7% depending on the poll which is pretty remarkable considering his late entry. Although his ads are well done . I think people freaking out about socialism need to relax because the votes for moderate centrists in total are far more than for socialists. If Biden wins Iowa it’s likely over. Hold his own in NH then clean up in N Carolina and on Super Tuesday .

One can hope . Sanity over party, competency over ideology.

[RiverDog]

Bye bye Harris. Klobuchar up to 10% in latest Iowa poll which shows Biden surging to 1st at 23% sanders right behind at 22, Buttigieg at 18, the fading Warren (yay!) at 16%. Bloomberg is at 5-7% depending on the poll which is pretty remarkable considering his late entry. Although his ads are well done . I think people freaking out about socialism need to relax because the votes for moderate centrists in total are far more than for socialists. If Biden wins Iowa it’s likely over. Hold his own in NH then clean up in N Carolina and on Super Tuesday .

One can hope . Sanity over party, competency over ideology.

I have a preference to the RCP poll as it's a composite of many polls and at least in theory should be more accurate. It's also averaged daily. Their numbers this morning show the following: Biden 28.5, Sanders 17.8, Warren 15.3 (down from 26% 6 weeks ago), Buttigieg 9.0 (down from 11.8 two weeks ago), Bloomberg 5.5%, and Klobuchar at 2.5%. But of course, it's a nation wide poll vs the Iowa results you've posted.

I think you're assigning too much importance to the early primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire. For example, you would expect Klobuchar to do well in Iowa as she's from a neighboring state just as Sanders figures to do well in New Hampshire. But I do agree with you that Biden appears to have recovered from his earlier slump and is the odds on favorite. We should have a presumptive nominee by Super Tuesday.

[Hawktawk]

Iowa has often been a springboard to the nomination , more so than NH although winning both makes most candidates a prohibitive favorite. Biden is one guy who could survive losing both due to his strength with blacks in NC. I hope there’s a nominee soon. The sooner the better .

[RiverDog]

Iowa has often been a springboard to the nomination , more so than NH although winning both makes most candidates a prohibitive favorite. Biden is one guy who could survive losing both due to his strength with blacks in NC. I hope there’s a nominee soon. The sooner the better .

Since 1972, Iowa's caucuses has just a 43% record of predicting the Democratic nominee. In New Hampshire, Trump broke a losing streak of 3 Presidents in a row (Clinton, Bush 43, and Obama) that came in 2nd in the NH primary before they were elected (in other words, not running as an incumbent.)

I don't know how important it is to the Dems to have their nomination sewed up early. I suppose it would depend on the candidate, that someone like Biden or Sanders are pretty well known to the public and sewing it up early wouldn't make a huge difference whereas Buttigieg might need more time for the public to get to know him, especially being that he has a homosexual bias that he's going to have to deal with.