The greatest economy ever

[Hawktawk]

I'm going to be posting a few articles from drudge report regarding the economy and economic health of our nation. I'm not trying to start a fight with this topic, I want peoples honest opinion about this because to me this whole thing looks like a ponzi scheme that's going to blow up like bernie madoff. It just looks highly unsustainable considering this economy is in its 11th year of growth now.
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/4826 ... n-deficits
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/32-perc ... ayday.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/credit-car ... 1581442140
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... ar-BBZUGRV

[RiverDog]

To be honest with you, the economy is doing quite a bit better than I thought it would. I thought that by the first quarter of 2020, we'd start seeing a slow down. Growth is slow but steady and unemployment remains at historic lows while the stock market is at historic highs. If it keeps up through the next 9 months, it's going to help Trump immensely. There's nothing like peace and prosperity to help re-elect an incumbent POTUS.

Not that I'm giving a bunch of credit to Trump. The economy was roaring before he took office and there isn't much in the way of policy initiatives that clearly helped keep it strong, and try as he did with his tariffs, he didn't do anything to screw it up.

[Aseahawkfan]

Sure, it's a good economy. Longest bull market in history. It's built on tax cuts and credit. You have low interest rates and low corporate taxes. If you can't make an economy grow in that type of environment, then you have a real problem.

I've missed out on a lot of money because I don't like tax cut and credit driven economies. I think we have a lot of bubbles that if they burst, we'll see a huge drop again. The big problem is no idea when it will happen or if it will happen.

Reading all the economics we're in a situation that economists aren't sure how to read and handle. Low inflation, low credit rate, low taxes, and lots of money flowing around. Usually when you pump this much easy money into the economy, you get inflation. But somehow we've avoided high inflation. We're literally experiencing a very strange economic situation which is hard to explain as it is not adhering to past models for some reason, maybe due to Chinese appetite for consumption hasn't been reached yet. I'm not sure. Obviously, we've got something different going on and we're not sure when it will end.

[Hawktawk]

To be honest with you, the economy is doing quite a bit better than I thought it would. I thought that by the first quarter of 2020, we'd start seeing a slow down. Growth is slow but steady and unemployment remains at historic lows while the stock market is at historic highs. If it keeps up through the next 9 months, it's going to help Trump immensely. There's nothing like peace and prosperity to help re-elect an incumbent POTUS.

Not that I'm giving a bunch of credit to Trump. The economy was roaring before he took office and there isn't much in the way of policy initiatives that clearly helped keep it strong, and try as he did with his tariffs, he didn't do anything to screw it up.

The economy may well help Trump if it sustains through Nov but its already baked in, voters give him credit for the economy, highest in decades and polls still show a pres well below 50% popularity. Clinton hit 75% with similar economic fundamentals post impeachment.

Not making this a political thread per se other than to observe that this administration seems to be wringing every trick out of the bag that it can to sustain this expansion leaving no hay in the barn,dirt cheap interest, massive tax cuts, regulatory rollbacks, huge military spending and overall deficit spending. Maybe Asea can explain this but I keep hearing about the fed pumping hundreds of billions into the repo markets to stabilize interest rates?I read where China has recently been pumping liquidity in the hundreds of billions into the US market in response to the coronavirus selloff.
It just looks like a house of cards. I hope to be wrong as usual People forget the runs on banks,Lehman brothers collapsing, the market in freefall just 12 years ago. I haven't. I never really saw that one coming like it did. This looks like a looming inevitable significant correction.

[c_hawkbob]

Our economy is rigged to siphon wealth from the bottom up while measuring itself in terms of how well those at the top are doing. Trickle down economics is the biggest scam in history.

[idhawkman]

To be honest with you, the economy is doing quite a bit better than I thought it would. I thought that by the first quarter of 2020, we'd start seeing a slow down. Growth is slow but steady and unemployment remains at historic lows while the stock market is at historic highs. If it keeps up through the next 9 months, it's going to help Trump immensely. There's nothing like peace and prosperity to help re-elect an incumbent POTUS.

Not that I'm giving a bunch of credit to Trump. The economy was roaring before he took office and there isn't much in the way of policy initiatives that clearly helped keep it strong, and try as he did with his tariffs, he didn't do anything to screw it up.

Not surprising, I disagree with a number of your points here. Deregulation was a huge boon to new businesses. The USMCA and China 1st phase deals will keep this economy booming for a number of years going forward. Add into that the imminent new trade deal with the UK after their BREXIT.

Repatriating Trillions of dollars into economic zones in the US is also fueling much of the economy and employing many of those people living in those economic zones.

Until 2017 the economy was the slowest recovery of any recession in history. Additionally, remember Obama declaring that Trump would need a magic wand to bring back manufacturing jobs in the US? "IF" Trump didn't do anything how would you explain the resurgence in manufacturing jobs?

[idhawkman]

Sure, it's a good economy. Longest bull market in history. It's built on tax cuts and credit. You have low interest rates and low corporate taxes. If you can't make an economy grow in that type of environment, then you have a real problem.

I've missed out on a lot of money because I don't like tax cut and credit driven economies. I think we have a lot of bubbles that if they burst, we'll see a huge drop again. The big problem is no idea when it will happen or if it will happen.

Reading all the economics we're in a situation that economists aren't sure how to read and handle. Low inflation, low credit rate, low taxes, and lots of money flowing around. Usually when you pump this much easy money into the economy, you get inflation. But somehow we've avoided high inflation. We're literally experiencing a very strange economic situation which is hard to explain as it is not adhering to past models for some reason, maybe due to Chinese appetite for consumption hasn't been reached yet. I'm not sure. Obviously, we've got something different going on and we're not sure when it will end.

I think the Internet has allowed us to keep inflation under control. In the past if you needed a widget you went to your local widget store and bought it whatever the price. Today if you need that same widget, you can get it from some small mom and pop shop in tinbuktu which forces your local stores to not gouge the local populace. Competition is always a good thing.

[idhawkman]

The economy may well help Trump if it sustains through Nov but its already baked in, voters give him credit for the economy, highest in decades and polls still show a pres well below 50% popularity. Clinton hit 75% with similar economic fundamentals post impeachment.

I've said it many times in this forum, be careful of polls - they don't know how to measure this president. What you can look at is the turnout so far. Trump has set records in Iowa and N.H. for voter turn out for him. You may not know that because of the media you watch but he literally stomped all over the past records set for incumbent presidents.

Lackluster IOWA Dem turnout article: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/us/politics/iowa-caucuses-turnout-democrats.html
N.H. Record setting Vote for INcumbent Presidents of both parties: https://thefederalist.com/2020/02/12/trumps-new-hampshire-turnout-number-is-simply-astounding/

https://thefederalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/turnout-pic-998x565.jpg

[RiverDog]

To be honest with you, the economy is doing quite a bit better than I thought it would. I thought that by the first quarter of 2020, we'd start seeing a slow down. Growth is slow but steady and unemployment remains at historic lows while the stock market is at historic highs. If it keeps up through the next 9 months, it's going to help Trump immensely. There's nothing like peace and prosperity to help re-elect an incumbent POTUS.

Not that I'm giving a bunch of credit to Trump. The economy was roaring before he took office and there isn't much in the way of policy initiatives that clearly helped keep it strong, and try as he did with his tariffs, he didn't do anything to screw it up.

Not surprising, I disagree with a number of your points here. Deregulation was a huge boon to new businesses. The USMCA and China 1st phase deals will keep this economy booming for a number of years going forward. Add into that the imminent new trade deal with the UK after their BREXIT.

Repatriating Trillions of dollars into economic zones in the US is also fueling much of the economy and employing many of those people living in those economic zones.

Until 2017 the economy was the slowest recovery of any recession in history. Additionally, remember Obama declaring that Trump would need a magic wand to bring back manufacturing jobs in the US? "IF" Trump didn't do anything how would you explain the resurgence in manufacturing jobs?

The problem is that none of your points are supported by factual data. None of what you mentioned caused any kind of a long term change in the direction of the market, which has been on a continual upswing since after the Great Recession in 2009 when guess who was in office:

https://www.stockcharts.com/freecharts/ ... dexes.html

It ran well under Obama, it's running well under Trump.

[Aseahawkfan]

Our economy is rigged to siphon wealth from the bottom up while measuring itself in terms of how well those at the top are doing. Trickle down economics is the biggest scam in history.

That is not how it works, c-bob. I really wish you would spend the time to enjoy the fact that our economy has given a lot to a lot of people, not just the top. The overall standard of living is better with more access to everything for cheaper than it has ever been except perhaps things like medical, part of the problem with medical is the money flood from insurance putting cost of service outside consumer affordability.

Just because you're not a millionaire doesn't mean you're living badly. I'm not sure why working people are buying into that type of thinking.

Even the barrier to investing has dropped substantially due to competition. It literally costs you nothing to buy and sell stocks at the moment due to Robin Hood pushing investing costs to 0 other than time spent researching and money spent investing.

I've never been rich in my life. I don't come from a rich family. I'm mixed background with both sides of my family raised poor. Yet I learned to save and invest and build up capital. I do not see how you see the economy how you see it when people have access to cheap Internet, cheap phones, cheap just about everything and have a standard of living most of the world envies. Abundant food and almost everything in abundance. Even the barriers to investing that existed in the past making it a rich man's game have been democratized through technology and business to give everyone access to investing and other perks like cell phones and cars with advanced tech that were the province of wealthy people in years past. Not giving credit to our economy for it's ability to take what was once the province of the rich and democratize it for all is not giving credit where it is due.

Most Americans have economic choices they often don't take that the rest of the world would love to have like investing and saving for a cost that is lower than Europe or most other nations.

I'm not saying we're perfect, but the American economy does not operate as you state it does. It's myopic to see it that way given the opportunities Americans of all income levels have in this nation if they pursue them. I am living proof that a kid from a broken home, poor family, raised mostly by a single mother, no one helping me pay for a dime of my education or life and no inheritance. just willing to work, save, and learn can improve their quality of life by making intelligent decisions and sacrificing for a better future.

[Aseahawkfan]

The economy may well help Trump if it sustains through Nov but its already baked in, voters give him credit for the economy, highest in decades and polls still show a pres well below 50% popularity. Clinton hit 75% with similar economic fundamentals post impeachment.

Not making this a political thread per se other than to observe that this administration seems to be wringing every trick out of the bag that it can to sustain this expansion leaving no hay in the barn,dirt cheap interest, massive tax cuts, regulatory rollbacks, huge military spending and overall deficit spending. Maybe Asea can explain this but I keep hearing about the fed pumping hundreds of billions into the repo markets to stabilize interest rates?I read where China has recently been pumping liquidity in the hundreds of billions into the US market in response to the coronavirus selloff.
It just looks like a house of cards. I hope to be wrong as usual People forget the runs on banks,Lehman brothers collapsing, the market in freefall just 12 years ago. I haven't. I never really saw that one coming like it did. This looks like a looming inevitable significant correction.

I read up on this some. Apparently there is a liquidity problem at banks. They don't have enough cash on hand for their depositors. So the Fed Bank is pushing cash to the banks through asset purchases to ensure banks have sufficient cash for depositors. It can be a risk, but not sure if it is. It may be given the level of economic activity that more people are using cash putting a higher demand cash assets. We will see in time.

It's really an odd economic time. We usually see a big inflationary increase with this much economic activity, but we're actually not seeing it.

Here is an article that explains some of it. It has to do with liquidity.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-repo-tools-explainer/repo-is-wall-streets-big-year-end-worry-why-idUSKBN1YR0F2

[Hawktawk]

Not surprising, I disagree with a number of your points here. Deregulation was a huge boon to new businesses. The USMCA and China 1st phase deals will keep this economy booming for a number of years going forward. Add into that the imminent new trade deal with the UK after their BREXIT.

Repatriating Trillions of dollars into economic zones in the US is also fueling much of the economy and employing many of those people living in those economic zones.

Until 2017 the economy was the slowest recovery of any recession in history. Additionally, remember Obama declaring that Trump would need a magic wand to bring back manufacturing jobs in the US? "IF" Trump didn't do anything how would you explain the resurgence in manufacturing jobs?

The economy is still the weakest recovery in history. Trump had 1 quarter near 4 % GDP in 2018 as companies purchased ahead to beat tariffs. he had a few in the 3% range but right now it's around 2% GDP, exactly like Obama.Jimmy carter averaged almost 4% growth and Clinton over 5. Job creation on a monthly basis actually lags a bit behind Obama's last few years. Remember Obama inherited over 9% unemployment, a halved stock market, banks teetering on the brink of insolvency etc. Trump inherited a 4.7 unemployment rate, 7 year economic expansion and equally long bull market.Its continued and the market in particular has accelerated but other than "record highs" the % of growth first 3 years is nowhere near the best ever , stock market or anything else.Also Trump inherited 500 billion annual deficits which he has more than doubled every year.

As for manufacturing booming that's where you are completely out to lunch. Harley is moving their european builds to europe from milwaukee to beat tariffs. GM has laid off over 15 K workers and closed several plants including Lordstown drawing angry tweets from the guy responsible.. Cummins engines is struggling. The largest nail manufacturer in the world went out of business due to the tariffs with mexico where they got 100% of their steel.. I lost a nice manufacturing job in Moses lake working for Genie Terex, their first major layoff in many years. Its was strictly due to 10% metal tariffs making them non competitive with Manantou and Skyreach to name 2, european companies who dont have to pay steel tariffs. When something weighs 100k LBS or more and its all steel 10% is a lot of money....

Some deregulation is good but Trump has gutted consumer protections and especially environmental protections. As for these trade deals this USMCA was basically tearing the NAFTA cover off an agreement and replacing it with very few internal modifications although it was at least bipartisan. Withdrawing from the TPP has been a loser and there is absolutely no guarantee this China phase 1 will yield any results or progress to a long term deal.. Ag farmers have been hammered,soybean farmers have received 21 billion in subsidies to buy their loyalty as they are shut out of the Chinese Market. China has found alternative sources, cheaper too with no tariffs and there is no guarantee our trade with China will ever approach what it's been.I fail to see how Britain is going to impact our bottom line much Brexit or no. As for this economy booming "for an number of years going forward" time will tell but not too many economists are saying that . I'd rather you're right but I'll take the word of the Fed Chair over the 6 time bankruptcy acrobat.

[Aseahawkfan]

Trump sure isn't hitting that 4% IDhawkman claimed he would. We're still rolling at about 2%. Given the size of our economy and how terrible most of Europe is doing, we're doing well enough at 2%.Not sure what would push us 4% absent inflation. Benign inflation is better than overheating.

[RiverDog]

Trump sure isn't hitting that 4% IDhawkman claimed he would. We're still rolling at about 2%. Given the size of our economy and how terrible most of Europe is doing, we're doing well enough at 2%.Not sure what would push us 4% absent inflation. Benign inflation is better than overheating.

Good call out. Another one of Idahawk's predictions gone awry.

You can say that again about inflation. Trump keeps pushing the Feds to lower the interest rate even further when there's no need for it. All it's going to do is increase spending and raise prices.