Bernie

[Hawktawk]

So what if it is Bernie? What are his chances at winning? James Carville says zero. Republicans down ballot are salivating.He leads in the primary polls in many states and also leads Trump right now.

I've kind of been in denial just like I was when Trump was ascending but I've started to pay a little more attention to this guy. His policies are not 51% policies vote wise but how bad do people want to be rid of Trump? The only observation I would make is that I dont think this grumpy old man is going to take a lot of lip off of Trump. As unpopular as many find his policy idea he defends his position well and is an expert at juxtaposing cries of socialism for the masses against socialism for the very wealthy.He drew a clear contrast with his strong condemnation of Vlad Putin while Trump was playing the buffoon Putin ass clown too which I liked quite a bit. Perfect answer.

Frankly Im depressed. Its looking entirely possible it will be the second presidential election with 2 very poor choices but this guy doesn't have either the negatives or the enthusiasm issue of HRC so time will tell

[RiverDog]

So what if it is Bernie? What are his chances at winning? James Carville says zero. Republicans down ballot are salivating.He leads in the primary polls in many states and also leads Trump right now.

I've kind of been in denial just like I was when Trump was ascending but I've started to pay a little more attention to this guy. His policies are not 51% policies vote wise but how bad do people want to be rid of Trump? The only observation I would make is that I dont think this grumpy old man is going to take a lot of lip off of Trump. As unpopular as many find his policy idea he defends his position well and is an expert at juxtaposing cries of socialism for the masses against socialism for the very wealthy.He drew a clear contrast with his strong condemnation of Vlad Putin while Trump was playing the buffoon Putin ass clown too which I liked quite a bit. Perfect answer.

Frankly Im depressed. Its looking entirely possible it will be the second presidential election with 2 very poor choices but this guy doesn't have either the negatives or the enthusiasm issue of HRC so time will tell

IMO Bernie is a nightmare candidate. He's not a true Democrat, he's an independent and will have at least some difficulty getting the party infrastructure behind him. There's still a lot of bad blood left over from the 2016 nomination fight that haven't fully healed. The 2020 fight has been unusually nasty, with Elizabeth Warren being the latest to go off the rails. He's an unabashed, self described socialist that scares even a lot of Democrats.

Yesterday I saw Joe Biden being interviewed, and he was asked if he thought Sanders could beat Trump, and despite his constant drone of him being the candidate that has the best chance of winning in November, he said that the question wasn't so much as whether or not Sanders could win, but whether or not his coat tails would be long enough to flip the Senate and keep a solid majority in the House.

If that happens, if Sanders wins the Presidency but the Republicans hold onto the Senate, then I'd be ecstatic. There's no way Sanders would be able to get any part of his radical agenda past a Republican Senate yet we would be absent that POS that's currently in the White House. The only problem is that the math favors the D's in the Senate this time around and Trump has hurt several of the more susceptible R's Solons during his impeachment trial.

I wouldn't get too depressed yet. Sanders has done well in the early primaries, but they're not reflective of the rest of the country. Sanders is trailing Biden by 5% in South Carolina, and that's with Steyer's massive campaign effort directed primarily at black voters, those that would normally be expected to be voting for Biden, factored in. Sanders has been making hay mostly at Warren's expense, not Biden's.

Super Tuesday will be the first truly national test and the first meaningful delegate prize. There are 1598 delegates that are up for grabs with 1885 needed to win the nomination.

[RiverDog]

Here's the latest RCP poll on the Democratic nomination:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6730.html

Sanders has a double digit lead nation wide, but if you look at the graph, you can see how it's fluctuated over time. It shows how one candidate's increase in popularity is tied directly to the fortunes of an opponent with a similar idealogy. Sanders rise corresponds with Elizabeth Warren's fall...which is why she's being such a Hillary lately and hassling Bernie for his medical records as she wants those voters back....and Biden's decline matches the timeline of Bloomberg's spike. That means that Sanders isn't changing anyone's mind as Warren's basic philosophy is very similar to his. They're just re-dividing the liberal slice of the Democratic pie. Same goes with the moderates Biden and Bloomberg.

The front runner status is a curse as much as it is a blessing. It's always better to be ahead than behind, but it puts a big target on your back as the others start taking aim. Bloomberg, Biden, and Buttigieg have all begun to release attack ads taking aim directly at Sanders as Super Tuesday approaches, and as stated above, Warren has adapted a much more caustic attitude in her campaign.

We'll see what happens on Super Tuesday. If Sanders holds onto his current edge, he could build up enough delegates to make his lead nearly insurmountable. But if he starts to falter and the others stay in the race until the convention, we could see a situation where no one has enough delegates to win on the first ballot, something that I personally have never witnessed in my lifetime.

[Hawktawk]

Here's the latest RCP poll on the Democratic nomination:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6730.html

Sanders has a double digit lead nation wide, but if you look at the graph, you can see how it's fluctuated over time. It shows how one candidate's rise is tied directly to the fortunes of another. Sanders rise corresponds with Elizabeth Warren's fall...which is why she's being such a Hillary lately and hassling Bernie for his medical records as she wants those voters back....and Biden's decline matches the timeline of Bloomberg's spike. That means that Sanders isn't changing anyone's mind as Warren's ideology is very similar to his. They're just re-dividing the liberal slice of the Democratic pie. Same goes with the moderates Biden and Bloomberg.

If one of those candidates were to back out and throw their support to the other sharer of the slice, it could change everything. Likewise, if they all stay in the race, none of them will get a majority of delegates and won't be able to win on the first ballot. I've never seen a nomination in either party where the winner wasn't decided on the first ballot.

The doo doo is going to hit the fan for Sanders tonight if the rest of these candidates know what's smart. There's a treasure trove of radical Bernie praising dictators and communist regimes that's popping up now including him at a rally in Nicaragua as Ortega chants "yankees must die".Although the voters in his state have heard it all before and keep sending him back to the senate.

But the party better figure it out. The don't seem to get it yet, much like republicans in 16. They spent the Nevada debate bashing a guy not yet on the ballet. Warren in particular with her high minded attacks on Bloomberg crude comments in her shrill naggy voice may have boosted her temporarily but did nothing to dent the lead of the one guy she needs to compete for liberal votes with while hurting a far more preferable electable candidate with coattails and UNLIMITED MONEY he has spent freely on democrats !!!! Klobuchar and Buttigeig attacking one another over names of foreign presidents etc...it's ridiculous.

I did see a poll on Drudge this AM saying Sanders Warren beats Trump Pence by 2 right now,48-46. Matt Drudge is no liberal but who knows. If Trump had a chance in 2016 it had to be Hillary. The same is true for Trump in 2020 IMKO but also true for Sanders. Can anyone really conceive of him being within 10 points of lets say, Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio with 3.7 unemployment? Anytime you run against a candidate mired in the mid 40% range his entire term with very high "strong disapprove"#s and a lower reelect # than job approval, far lower than approval of the economy. Generic he trails and specific reelect the trails every major Democrat, again with some very strong pulses in his favor, things that would have the typical candidate on cruise control to reelection. This time it isn't the economy stupid. Its the guy it's a referendum on.
We shall see...

[RiverDog]

The doo doo is going to hit the fan for Sanders tonight if the rest of these candidates know what's smart. There's a treasure trove of radical Bernie praising dictators and communist regimes that's popping up now including him at a rally in Nicaragua as Ortega chants "yankees must die".Although the voters in his state have heard it all before and keep sending him back to the senate.

Yep. That's part of the baggage that Sanders brings with him and one of the reasons why I feel he's the least likely candidate to beat Trump. You can bet your bottom dollar that Trump will hammer at him for his anti American behavior from way back in the 70's. There's stuff about him embracing people like Fidel Castro and the Ayatollah Khomeini. Sanders has more dirt that can be used on him than does Biden and his son and it will drive away the moderates any of them are going to need in order to beat Trump in the more conservative swing states.

But the party better figure it out. The don't seem to get it yet, much like republicans in 16. They spent the Nevada debate bashing a guy not yet on the ballet. Warren in particular with her high minded attacks on Bloomberg crude comments in her shrill naggy voice may have boosted her temporarily but did nothing to dent the lead of the one guy she needs to compete for liberal votes with while hurting a far more preferable electable candidate with coattails and UNLIMITED MONEY he has spent freely on democrats !!!! Klobuchar and Buttigeig attacking one another over names of foreign presidents etc...it's ridiculous.

I did see a poll on Drudge this AM saying Sanders Warren beats Trump Pence by 2 right now,48-46. Matt Drudge is no liberal but who knows. If Trump had a chance in 2016 it had to be Hillary. The same is true for Trump in 2020 IMKO but also true for Sanders. Can anyone really conceive of him being within 10 points of lets say, Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio with 3.7 unemployment? Anytime you run against a candidate mired in the mid 40% range his entire term with very high "strong disapprove"#s and a lower reelect # than job approval, far lower than approval of the economy. Generic he trails and specific reelect the trails every major Democrat, again with some very strong pulses in his favor, things that would have the typical candidate on cruise control to reelection. This time it isn't the economy stupid. Its the guy it's a referendum on.
We shall see...

I agree with you about Warren. She reminds me of Judge Judy, a personality from a TV program that my wife watches daily. A few weeks ago, Warren personally accused Sanders of lying on stage and over an open microphone. She's showing herself to be a shrill old hag lined with razor wire doing her best to impersonate Hillary Clinton. There's still a lot of people out there, both female as well as male, that are more put off by a rude, aggressive female much more so than if a man were to exhibit the same behavior.

If Bernie is smart, he won't take her as a running mate for two reasons: First, he needs someone that can attract moderate voters and second, he needs someone outside of his own region, preferably from a purple state and almost certainly a female. Klobuchar is a much better fit. The other thing is that Warren isn't much younger than Sanders and the Dem party loyalists will be looking for the next standard bearer. With Sanders age and health issues, he almost certainly wouldn't run for re-election in 2024. Besides, there's too much bad blood between the two.

Another factor in both the nomination and the general election is the stock market. It tanked yesterday, losing nearly 4% of its value in one day. They're attributing it to the coronavirus, but I'm not so sure if that's the only reason. There are some numbers that indicate that we could be heading for a major slow down if not a recession. If that happens, then a Sanders candidacy could really take off as he's an anti Wall Street socialist that will argue the benefits of a more controlled economy that's not as subject to stock market fluctuations.

[idhawkman]

Here's the latest RCP poll on the Democratic nomination:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6730.html

Sanders has a double digit lead nation wide, but if you look at the graph, you can see how it's fluctuated over time. It shows how one candidate's increase in popularity is tied directly to the fortunes of an opponent with a similar idealogy. Sanders rise corresponds with Elizabeth Warren's fall...which is why she's being such a Hillary lately and hassling Bernie for his medical records as she wants those voters back....and Biden's decline matches the timeline of Bloomberg's spike. That means that Sanders isn't changing anyone's mind as Warren's basic philosophy is very similar to his. They're just re-dividing the liberal slice of the Democratic pie. Same goes with the moderates Biden and Bloomberg.

The front runner status is a curse as much as it is a blessing. It's always better to be ahead than behind, but it puts a big target on your back as the others start taking aim. Bloomberg, Biden, and Buttigieg have all begun to release attack ads taking aim directly at Sanders as Super Tuesday approaches, and as stated above, Warren has adapted a much more caustic attitude in her campaign.

We'll see what happens on Super Tuesday. If Sanders holds onto his current edge, he could build up enough delegates to make his lead nearly insurmountable. But if he starts to falter and the others stay in the race until the convention, we could see a situation where no one has enough delegates to win on the first ballot, something that I personally have never witnessed in my lifetime.

So regardless of who wins who is going to unite both segments after winning the nomination? If sanders has the plurality but not the majority of delegates what's going to happen with the Bernie bros on Election Day? If they do give it to Bernie how much do you think Wall Street brokers will donate to trump?

Either way you are going to have half of the dem voters depressed on Election Day resulting in low dem turnout. None of the dems are talking about why you should vote for them other than "Trump is bad" which never wins elections. You have to have something to vote for not just something to vote against.

[idhawkman]

Another factor in both the nomination and the general election is the stock market. It tanked yesterday, losing nearly 4% of its value in one day. They're attributing it to the coronavirus, but I'm not so sure if that's the only reason. There are some numbers that indicate that we could be heading for a major slow down if not a recession. If that happens, then a Sanders candidacy could really take off as he's an anti Wall Street socialist that will argue the benefits of a more controlled economy that's not as subject to stock market fluctuations.

wow! State the obvious Riv.

Of course there's a slow down coming but it isn't because of lack of demand, it will be because of the disruption in the supply chains coming from China and possibly other countries due to workers not going into work because of the virus. Toys, autos, Apple Amazon and others have already adjusted there projections over this. Once the virus is controlled the pent up demand is going to be fulfilled at that time. It would be folly to go socialist knowing the reasons.

The big loser is going to be China because once the supply chain leaves they won't go back. They are already starting to face stagnant growth and are in jeopardy of recession now.

[RiverDog]

Either way you are going to have half of the dem voters depressed on Election Day resulting in low dem turnout. None of the dems are talking about why you should vote for them other than "Trump is bad" which never wins elections. You have to have something to vote for not just something to vote against.

Another one of your predictions?

I don't accept your premise that you have to have something to vote for not just something to vote against. As a matter of fact, we can attribute a large part of Donald Trump's success in 2016 to the fact that so many people disliked his opponent. From an article about the 2016 election:

A Reuters/Ipsos online poll finds that 46% of voters who would support Clinton in a head-to-head matchup against Trump say they are primarily backing her because they don’t want to see the business mogul become President, compared to 43% who say they agree with most of Clinton’s political positions. Similarly, 47% of voters who plan to back Trump say they’re doing so because they don’t want Clinton in the White House, compared to 40% who agree with most of Trump’s positions.

https://time.com/4321059/hillary-clinto ... rump-poll/

Trump has the highest negatives by far of any nominee since they started taking surveys 60 years ago. No matter who the Democratic nominee is, a very large number of voters will turn out for no other reason than to vote against DJT.

Trump's 61% unfavorable score is worst in presidential polling history

https://news.gallup.com/poll/197231/tru ... mages.aspx

IMO you are underestimating how much Trump is disliked. Love him or loathe him, he is almost without question the most polarizing figure in our lifetime. Whether or not the Dems can turn that angst into victory in November I'm not willing to say, at least not this far out. But when you consider Trump's unpopularity ratings and the fact that in 3+ years he's never broken 50% in a job approval rating, the Dems have a huge opportunity to retake the White House.

[Aseahawkfan]

As I see it we are in Crazy Town right now. Trump is crazy. Bernie is crazy. America seems to have a taste for some radical crazy moves right now. I say let's live in Crazy Town this election and let Bernie go at Trump. See what happens.

[RiverDog]

As I see it we are in Crazy Town right now. Trump is crazy. Bernie is crazy. America seems to have a taste for some radical crazy moves right now. I say let's live in Crazy Town this election and let Bernie go at Trump. See what happens.

If nothing else, Bernie's hair makes him look crazy. I recently saw a clip of him from 40 years ago and his mop looked as bad as it does today. Add that frizzy white hair to a jabbing forefinger with that perpetually angry look on his face and a hunchback posture and all you need is a set of boiling test tubes to complete the quintessential image of a mad scientist hard at work creating Frankenstein.

Gawd, I can imagine the SNL skits if Sanders gets elected President. I wonder what Christopher Lloyd is doing nowadays.

[Aseahawkfan]

If nothing else, Bernie's hair makes him look crazy. I recently saw a clip of him from 40 years ago and his mop looked as bad as it does today. Add that frizzy white hair to a jabbing forefinger with that perpetually angry look on his face and a hunchback posture and all you need is a set of boiling test tubes to complete the quintessential image of a mad scientist hard at work creating Frankenstein.

Gawd, I can imagine the SNL skits if Sanders gets elected President. I wonder what Christopher Lloyd is doing nowadays.

I told you c-bob was all in on Bernie. He's got support from a large and varied group looking for something other than business as usual. I think a Centrist Democrat has a worse chance of beating Trump than a radical like Bernie.

Who usually plays Bernie on SNL? I can't recall. Alec Baldwin is making a career of playing Trump on SNL. Pretty hilarious.

[RiverDog]

Who usually plays Bernie on SNL? I can't recall. Alec Baldwin is making a career of playing Trump on SNL. Pretty hilarious.

With the exception of Alec Baldwin's portrayal of DJT, of which I agree was a riot, I haven't watched much of SNL lately. I threw out Christopher Lloyd's name as he played Dr. Brown in "Back to the Future" and reminds me of Bernie Sanders.

[c_hawkbob]

I know they won't because he's black but Trevor Noah actually does a pretty good Bernie Sanders.

[idhawkman]

Do you guys not like how Larry David plays him on SNL? He's played him a few times on there before and got some Praise for it.

Here's a couple of clips of Larry David doing Bernie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1f3-W8DjmA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfmwGAd1L-o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nn4tP7ogWIA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ArUGafcVlI

[Aseahawkfan]

Larry David would be perfect. I can't wait for the debates. Alec Baldwin and Larry David on SNL.

[Hawktawk]

As I see it we are in Crazy Town right now. Trump is crazy. Bernie is crazy. America seems to have a taste for some radical crazy moves right now. I say let's live in Crazy Town this election and let Bernie go at Trump. See what happens.

LOL Id rather see 2 screwed up grumpy old men with Fd hairdos than that nag Warren any day . If that's the matchup in november america loses either way.It would ironically truly serve the Id Hawkmen of the world right though to deal with a Pres Sanders writing executive orders and doing what he pleased with his fanatical base intimidating the congress into letting him exercise absolute power.

[Hawktawk]

If nothing else, Bernie's hair makes him look crazy. I recently saw a clip of him from 40 years ago and his mop looked as bad as it does today. Add that frizzy white hair to a jabbing forefinger with that perpetually angry look on his face and a hunchback posture and all you need is a set of boiling test tubes to complete the quintessential image of a mad scientist hard at work creating Frankenstein.

Gawd, I can imagine the SNL skits if Sanders gets elected President. I wonder what Christopher Lloyd is doing nowadays.

Dude....Bernies hair makes him look crazy??? Sure it does but it is no more ridiculous a do than Trump's helmet of hair spray affixed combover https://www.vanityfair.com/news/photos/ ... rumps-hair

[RiverDog]

Dude....Bernies hair makes him look crazy??? Sure it does but it is no more ridiculous a do than Trump's helmet of hair spray affixed combover https://www.vanityfair.com/news/photos/ ... rumps-hair

There's nothing wrong with Trump's appearance except like his rhetoric, it's all fake.

We can joke about it, but there are a lot of people that vote based on physical appearance and how well they come across on TV. Warren reminds me of Judge Judy, a rude, razor wire lined b**** that talks down to people. Klobuchar is much more likeable, has a great smile, and isn't nearly as offensive. Buttigieg is well polished, both in appearance as well as in his delivery.

But the 3 septuagenarians all have their Maylox moments, and will occasionally stumble in their delivery or miss state some key facts. Even though DJT is the unchallenged king of bloopers and misstatements, that tendency could come back to bite one of those old men in a general election. I don't see any of those 3 appealing to the younger, more feminine Democratic base.