China strategy or dumb luck?

[I-5]

Not my words, but just wanted to share some provocative thoughts sent to me by a good friend here in Canada, who was born in Taiwan, went to school in Japan, and now resides part time in Canada and Italy. Yes, it's a bit tin foil hat, but there is some logic to it. I also have a couple of charts that are guaranteed to raise some eyebrows about whether China is telling the truth about their recoveries. Here is what she said:

THE CHINA STRATEGY

1. Create a virus - and the antidote at the same time.

2. Spread the virus.

3. Provide a great demonstration of efficiency, building hospitals in a few days. Of course, you were already prepared to mobilize, with all the materials, ordering the equipment, hiring the labor, the water and sewage network, the prefabricated building materials and stocked in an impressive volume. Even the site and design was instant.

4. Cause chaos in the world, starting with Europe.

5. Watch economy collapse in dozens of other countries.

6. Stop production lines in factories in other countries.

7. Watch stocks fall and buy companies at a bargain price (this is already now happening)

8. Quickly control the epidemic in your country. After all, you were already prepared.

9. Lower the price of commodities, including the price of oil you buy on a large scale.

10. Get back to producing quickly while the world is at a standstill. Buy what you negotiated cheaply in the crisis and sell more expensive what is lacking in countries that have paralyzed their industries.

Questions to think about:
Why was Beijing was not hit heavily with the virus? Why only Wuhan? And now, Wuhan is open for business again, while America and all the above mentioned countries are devastated financially. Soon American economy will collapse. China knows it CANNOT defeat America militarily as USA is at present

When China's President Xi Jinping visited Hubei, he wore a simple RM1 facemask to visit the effected areas. As President of the most populous nation on earth, he should be covered from head to toe - why wasn't he more protected? Is it possible that the pandemic is really finished in Hubei, or was he already innoculated somehow against catching the virus?

(end of copy and paste)

[I-5]

Some links:

British expert Tom Pike from the Imperial Collage had based his death estimates for the UK on how Wuhan had miraculously recovered, but found his predictions completely contradicted by actual stats.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8166093/Expert-said-just-5-700-die-coronavirus-UK-says-wrong.html

China's recovery rates (nearly 100%) and death rates (nearly 0%) as of today are completely unique and ridiculous compared with any other country. Can anyone really be this good? Scroll down to chart called "Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) in China" from worldometer website:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/?fbclid=IwAR1myaDOw8l1eu_RMmuMCcOkoKdhPGQJOBPFBpuTmrhNu8UQzWKBu9rvHpY

US expert on China says China claims of ending pandemic there are pure fabrication
https://lifestyle.inquirer.net/360133/chinas-success-in-stopping-pandemic-a-sheer-fabrication-says-us-china-expert/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR03hw2B12B1CussiHGejmLXlgf0IZCpTjm3e10ASMXVSg74OVhD7dkZtpk#Echobox=1585520806

[RiverDog]

Interesting stuff even though most of it is pure conjecture. Until I see some facts, I'd put it alongside the fake moon landings and the WTC towers being imploded. But it'll be a slam dunk success if it ever makes it to Hollywood.

[c_hawkbob]

A bit tin foil hat? it's over the top batsh!t paranoid crazy. Besides, it is possible to conclusively prove whether the origins are natural or laboratory: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 175442.htm

[I-5]

As I said, a bit tin foil hat. It is pure conjecture.

However, what isn't pure conjecture is China's current trend of recoveries and deaths. It simply looks fictional compared with every other country. What's their secret to nearly 100% recovery outcomes and 0% deaths at this point, only 3 months after the pandemic began. Look at the curve and tell me you believe it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/?fbclid=IwAR1myaDOw8l1eu_RMmuMCcOkoKdhPGQJOBPFBpuTmrhNu8UQzWKBu9rvHpY

[RiverDog]

As I said, a bit tin foil hat. It is pure conjecture.

However, what isn't pure conjecture is China's current trend of recoveries and deaths. It simply looks fictional compared with every other country. What's their secret to nearly 100% recovery outcomes and 0% deaths at this point, only 3 months after the pandemic began. Look at the curve and tell me you believe it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/?fbclid=IwAR1myaDOw8l1eu_RMmuMCcOkoKdhPGQJOBPFBpuTmrhNu8UQzWKBu9rvHpY

I don't believe it, but that doesn't mean that I have to subscribe to your theory. Don't you think that there's at least a possibility that China is over reporting their recoveries or intentionally mischaracterizing or under reporting their deaths that could explain at least some of that discrepancy? They obviously have the motive to do so and being a closed society with a controlled press, they definitely have the means to disseminate false or misleading information.

Boris Johnson's government is furious with China and believes it could have 40 times the number of coronavirus cases it says

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... 2MFCBDcCYY

Estimates from Radio Free Asia show that up to 42,000 bodies have been cremated in Wuhan since the crisis.

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/ ... 82846.html

"Some of the reporting from China was not clear about the scale, the nature, the infectiousness of this,"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... us-testing

[c_hawkbob]

I'll believe the science thanks.

[I-5]

I'm not selling a theory, just shared her words.

What I can't explain is China's miraculous recovery, and why they aren't sharing their secrets with the rest of the world, so that we can all be past this in a similar timeline. Riv, I tend to agree with you that China is literally hiding bodies, which is dangerous because it might give other countries a false sense that things can get better soon.

[RiverDog]

I'm not selling a theory, just shared her words.

What I can't explain is China's miraculous recovery, and why they aren't sharing their secrets with the rest of the world, so that we can all be past this in a similar timeline

How do you know that they've made a "miraculous recovery"?

[I-5]

How do you know that they've made a "miraculous recovery"?

See the chart I posted 6:31am. China is in the top left corner. Recoveries are charted with green and deaths with a yellow line. According to the data, China has basically stopped getting new cases (just 31) and new deaths (just 4). They've been sitting at roughly 80,000 cases for almost a week now. They have 75,000 recoveries. Compare with Italy, who has 100,000 cases and just 14,000 recoveries. It almost looks like a different virus altogether.

The data is here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/?fbclid=IwAR1myaDOw8l1eu_RMmuMCcOkoKdhPGQJOBPFBpuTmrhNu8UQzWKBu9rvHpY

[RiverDog]

You seem to be missing my point. Did you not read my previous replies and the links I provided?

In order for the data you posted to be accepted as accurate, China must be at least as up front and forthcoming as all the other nations in the world, and there are serious doubts about the validity of the information they are providing.

[I-5]

You seem to be missing my point. Did you not read my previous replies and the links I provided?

I think we're saying the same thing then (yes I saw the links you posted). China is lying about their numbers. I was being facetious about the 'miraculous recovery' description. I don't think they've recovered.

[Aseahawkfan]

I put this with the 9/11 Truther theories that our government executed The Twin Towers Bombing or some of the theories I've heard that some wealthy group in America did this virus to lower stocks and buy them back cheaper.

One thing I do believe is China lied about the extent of the outbreak and we're all experiencing the pain of their lies. They're going to need to be called to the carpet about hiding information by the rest of the world. None of this soft rubbish with them playing the "We're China. You can't tell us what to do" BS. They had better communicate far more effectively and openly about things like this or suffer the consequences. The control of the press and the like during an infectious disease is not to be tolerated.

[RiverDog]

You seem to be missing my point. Did you not read my previous replies and the links I provided?

I think we're saying the same thing then (yes I saw the links you posted). China is lying about their numbers. I was being facetious about the 'miraculous recovery' description. I don't think they've recovered.

Gotcha. I must have stopped reading after your first sentence. My bad.

I think everyone is in agreement that China has acted very poorly and has caused a lot of people to die, but we can't exactly fine them a couple $100k and suspend them for half the season. The United Nations, the World Court, etc, are toothless giants. It needs to be made clear and obvious to them that their behavior is counter productive to their own interests. If the world economy suffers, they suffer right along with the rest of us. Only then will we get the cooperation we need to force some meaningful changes in the way they react to health issues such as the corona virus.

[Aseahawkfan]

It seems China started to see that. They finally banned wet markets. Hopefully they do this in the Chinese hardcore fashion. I know the economic pain they're suffering from this is intense and just beginning. More nations than us are angry with them.

I have read in Italy the anti-China rhetoric is strong with conservative Italians blaming companies doing business in the textile industry bringing in cheap Chinese labor in and out of the nation prior to the pandemic which lead to Italy's heavy infection rate. I have no idea how the textile industry in Italy works, but apparently they use a lot of Chinese labor that flies in and out of Italy. They will probably have a major backlash in Italy against China as they the hardest hit so far by this virus.

It sure would be nice if humans weren't always looking to blame someone for their suffering. It sure seems the blame game is strong in humans during stressful times when it is counter-productive to our well being and ability to get through hard times.

[RiverDog]

It sure would be nice if humans weren't always looking to blame someone for their suffering. It sure seems the blame game is strong in humans during stressful times when it is counter-productive to our well being and ability to get through hard times.

At this point in time, I agree with you. It's pointless to blame anyone. The focus should be on the present.

But there will come a day, perhaps in 3 months, 6 months, or a year, when we will look back to these events and evaluate exactly what happened. The only way we are going to learn from our mistakes and keep this from happening again is to do a thorough investigation, find out what went wrong and if there was any incompetence or willful neglect by any individuals, companies, governments, et al that a reasonable person would not have done and hold those people and/or organizations accountable for their actions/inactions.

You can't just kiss it and make it better.

[Aseahawkfan]

But there will come a day, perhaps in 3 months, 6 months, or a year, when we will look back to these events and evaluate exactly what happened. The only way we are going to learn from our mistakes and keep this from happening again is to do a thorough investigation, find out what went wrong and if there was any incompetence or willful neglect by any individuals, companies, governments, et al that a reasonable person would not have done and hold those people and/or organizations accountable for their actions/inactions.

You can't just kiss it and make it better.

Or we could just spend our time improving our systems than trying to find some guy or corp or some government organization to pin this on for a once in a century (hopefully) pandemic. Blame is a bad policy for situations like this though I know both sides will do it same as the blame game was used for Benghazi and 9/11 and tons of other events that occur that can't be foreseen completely. I still remember the left hammering on Bush Jr. trying to find all this stuff he and his administration did wrong that led to 9/11 and how the right went right back trying to blame the previous administration. So I expect that to happen regardless even when the reality is that some events are very hard to prepare for. You could stop a 1000 such events and the one that gets by you will be the one someone tries to blame someone for. That's more of the petty PR game and won't have much to do with the very real measures we put in place to fix these types of things.

[RiverDog]

Or we could just spend our time improving our systems than trying to find some guy or corp or some government organization to pin this on for a once in a century (hopefully) pandemic. Blame is a bad policy for situations like this though I know both sides will do it same as the blame game was used for Benghazi and 9/11 and tons of other events that occur that can't be foreseen completely. I still remember the left hammering on Bush Jr. trying to find all this stuff he and his administration did wrong that led to 9/11 and how the right went right back trying to blame the previous administration. So I expect that to happen regardless even when the reality is that some events are very hard to prepare for. You could stop a 1000 such events and the one that gets by you will be the one someone tries to blame someone for. That's more of the petty PR game and won't have much to do with the very real measures we put in place to fix these types of things.

What you call blame I call accepting responsibility. I want those decisions...good, bad, and indifferent.. to be brought out into the open and debated. Sure, it's going to get politicized, but it's the only way that future decision makers will benefit from mistakes that were made in the past. This isn't China or the former USSR where they are swept under the carpet. I want our dirty laundry hung out to air.

[I-5]

Speaking of accepting responsibility, looks like Washington state is a semi-bright spot in the fight. I've seen numerous articles that the measures taken are beginning to have a positive effect on the numbers, or at least stabilize. My cousin's wife in Seattle is a nurse at Swedish Hospital on Capitol Hill, and she said that so far they have not seen a tsunami of cases yet.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/30/study-social-distancing-seems-to-be-helping-in-kin/

[RiverDog]

Speaking of accepting responsibility, looks like Washington state is a semi-bright spot in the fight. I've seen numerous articles that the measures taken are beginning to have a positive effect on the numbers, or at least stabilize. My cousin's wife in Seattle is a nurse at Swedish Hospital on Capitol Hill, and she said that so far they have not seen a tsunami of cases yet.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/30/study-social-distancing-seems-to-be-helping-in-kin/

That's the state in general, which is dominated by the Puget Sound area. The virus is just getting started over here on the dry side.

But I agree, the measures taken here appear to be working. However, I wouldn't do a touchdown dance just yet.

[I-5]

I don’t notice any touchdown dances. There won’t be any until we see this thing fade in a major way (probably never completely disappear), like all viruses do.

[Aseahawkfan]

What you call blame I call accepting responsibility. I want those decisions...good, bad, and indifferent.. to be brought out into the open and debated. Sure, it's going to get politicized, but it's the only way that future decision makers will benefit from mistakes that were made in the past. This isn't China or the former USSR where they are swept under the carpet. I want our dirty laundry hung out to air.

Fixing the problem will require debate on methods and processes and decision making. But going back and forth on blame will be highly unproductive, though I can already see it happening all the way around. We do it as a nation every time something happens. I think it is stupid every time I see it or experience in the media or even at my job. It's highly unproductive.

[Aseahawkfan]

Speaking of accepting responsibility, looks like Washington state is a semi-bright spot in the fight. I've seen numerous articles that the measures taken are beginning to have a positive effect on the numbers, or at least stabilize. My cousin's wife in Seattle is a nurse at Swedish Hospital on Capitol Hill, and she said that so far they have not seen a tsunami of cases yet.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/30/study-social-distancing-seems-to-be-helping-in-kin/

I think population density and cultural norms are going to be very clearly defined during this pandemic. Washington State is not densely populated. Our culture is very insular and standoffish, The Seattle Freeze is going to help us I think. We're not the most sociable of people here in Washington. It might help us this time around.

[RiverDog]

Speaking of accepting responsibility, looks like Washington state is a semi-bright spot in the fight. I've seen numerous articles that the measures taken are beginning to have a positive effect on the numbers, or at least stabilize. My cousin's wife in Seattle is a nurse at Swedish Hospital on Capitol Hill, and she said that so far they have not seen a tsunami of cases yet.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/30/study-social-distancing-seems-to-be-helping-in-kin/

I think population density and cultural norms are going to be very clearly defined during this pandemic. Washington State is not densely populated. Our culture is very insular and standoffish, The Seattle Freeze is going to help us I think. We're not the most sociable of people here in Washington. It might help us this time around.

The state as a whole may not be densely populated, but Seattle sure is.

But I agree that we caught a break by having the virus hit us in January and February. Seattle doesn't have an NBA or NHL team. UW basketball sucks. January saw something like 28 straight days without seeing the sun. Not many tourist visit in the winter months. And speaking from a personal perspective, the dicey weather in the mountain passes kept me from making a trip to take in an XFL game.

But as we get further into spring when the sun comes out and people naturally want to be outside and with the good news that Seattle seems to be in good shape, it is going to be more difficult to keep people apart, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see that rate bump up in May or June. And it doesn't hurt that the area is infested with liberals, who in general are more trusting of the government and less likely to listen to the POTUS's happy talk than the types of folks Hawktalk has referred to.

[RiverDog]

Not sure if you guys heard about this story, but it's making national news:

With the coronavirus quickly spreading in Washington state in early March, leaders of the Skagit Valley Chorale debated whether to go ahead with weekly rehearsal. The virus was already killing people in the Seattle area, about an hour’s drive to the south. But Skagit County hadn’t reported any cases, schools and business remained open, and prohibitions on large gatherings had yet to be announced.

On March 6, Adam Burdick, the choir’s conductor, informed the 121 members in an email that amid the “stress and strain of concerns about the virus,” practice would proceed as scheduled at Mount Vernon Presbyterian Church.

Sixty singers showed up. A greeter offered hand sanitizer at the door, and members refrained from the usual hugs and handshakes.

Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-wor ... -are-dead/

I guess you could say that hindsight is 20/20. It demonstrates just how dangerous Trump's proposal to ease restrictions in "low risk" areas was.

[Aseahawkfan]

I saw the story. Just more proof this thing been circulating for a while in areas no one realizes. No one knows where it is, who started it in America, or the true level of infection in America. I think it is everywhere myself with asymptomatic carriers in areas that haven't blown up yet.

[RiverDog]

I saw the story. Just more proof this thing been circulating for a while in areas no one realizes. No one knows where it is, who started it in America, or the true level of infection in America. I think it is everywhere myself with asymptomatic carriers in areas that haven't blown up yet.

It's a signal to people that are under the impression that this is just a big city problem.

I ran across this tidbit about our problem with testing:

Though the United States and South Korea both confirmed their first cases on Jan. 20, America has been much slower to ramp up testing. Last week, the United States surpassed the number of tests performed in South Korea, but the American population is more than six times larger, and Americans are much less likely to have been tested.

That's one of the reasons why South Korea is so far ahead of the game than we are. The key to getting ahead of this virus is testing. Otherwise, we won't know until weeks after people start showing symptoms, and by then, it's like closing the gate after the horses get out.

We need way more testing, and not just those that are displaying symptoms. It's no different than running an opinion poll. We need to be going out into the general public and selecting people completely at random, healthy or not, and give them a test so we can get a clear idea of what percentage of the population is infected and contrast that with other cities and regions that are testing under the same parameters to see which area is going to spring up with more cases. Even once we think we have it under control, we need to continue random testing to make sure that it's not beginning to spread again and keep testing until a vaccine is available and distributed.

That's our country's biggest single failure in this crisis, our continued delay in developing and conducting tests for the virus.

[Aseahawkfan]

It's a signal to people that are under the impression that this is just a big city problem.

I ran across this tidbit about our problem with testing:

Though the United States and South Korea both confirmed their first cases on Jan. 20, America has been much slower to ramp up testing. Last week, the United States surpassed the number of tests performed in South Korea, but the American population is more than six times larger, and Americans are much less likely to have been tested.

That's one of the reasons why South Korea is so far ahead of the game than we are. The key to getting ahead of this virus is testing. Otherwise, we won't know until weeks after people start showing symptoms, and by then, it's like closing the gate after the horses get out.

We need way more testing, and not just those that are displaying symptoms. It's no different than running an opinion poll. We need to be going out into the general public and selecting people completely at random, healthy or not, and give them a test so we can get a clear idea of what percentage of the population is infected and contrast that with other cities and regions that are testing under the same parameters to see which area is going to spring up with more cases. Even once we think we have it under control, we need to continue random testing to make sure that it's not beginning to spread again and keep testing until a vaccine is available and distributed.

That's our country's biggest single failure in this crisis, our continued delay in developing and conducting tests for the virus.

That is the entire world's problem, not just ours. South Korea apparently learned from their last outbreak.

You tell me if you're ok with how South Korea is doing it?

1. They are telling people to wear masks all the time.

2. Automatic quarantine when you fly in from another nation.

3. When in quarantine put an app on your phone that tracks your location and if you go to an area beyond the app, then the South Korean enforcement calls you and tells you get back to where you are supposed to be.

I wonder if Americans would be ok with even these measures.

[I-5]

I would be all in for those 3 requirements. It's defintely the smart way to go.

I can't believe there is any debate left about whether or not to wear masks. The quickest way to know whether you should wear a mask is to ask yourself if it's possible you might be a carrier of the virus, even if you feel fine. If the answer is yes (which it is, since we have since learned that's what's so deadly about this virus), then a mask definitely helps protect others from you. That's how we should all see the situation.

[RiverDog]

I'd be OK with all three of the South Korean measures, too, so long as there's assurances that the government will not abuse them and terminate them once the crisis is over.

The philosophy for wearing a particle mask apparently has changed. My understanding was that the effectiveness of masks for people that are already distanced 6+ feet is very minimal. As a matter of fact, two months ago, our government was telling people to quit buying them. The problem now is how to acquire them. There's so many scams on the internet now, even over Amazon, that I don't trust buying them online unless it's from a trusted supplier. However, we have a friend that's making them and hopefully I can get one for my next trip to a grocery store scheduled for this Friday. I've been wearing a pair of nitrile gloves on each trip for the past several weeks.

[Aseahawkfan]

Those things don't seem terrible as long as someone was providing me with food. I can't sit in 14 day quarantine with no food.