Aseahawkfan wrote:I read Lichtman's article. He said in the article Trump is winning in six of those areas and Biden in seven. He very much said these can shift before the election. So this isn't even close to to Lichtman making a final prediction like the article I saw circulating on Yahoo indicated. Lichtman said if the election were held today, Biden would likely win. He said the election is very close, far closer than the polls indicate. Biden has some work to do to hold on to his edge.
Aseahawkfan wrote:That's why I'm not even close to seeing a clear winner. So much dirt is going to start getting flung and so many moves are going to be made, calling this election is a real crap shoot. I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't a crap shoot right up to election day unless I see a kill shot released like Trump directly using a racial slur or some new trash on Hunter Biden. This is going to get real dirty before long here.
RiverDog wrote:I don't think there's anything more to glean out of the Hunter Biden issue. It's old news. Same goes with Trump's use of racial slurs. If you're the type that's likely to be offended by that kind of language, you've already been disrespected by him on countless occasions. The allegations made by Trump's own niece of his use of racial epithets didn't put a dent in his popularity. His supporters and independents/undecideds have heard it all before and have either rationalized it, as Idahawkman has, or it doesn't matter to them.
Same goes with Trump's womanizing. Anyone who feels those issues are relevant have been exposed to it on multiple occasions and have long ago made up their minds. Even if something were to come out showing a definite link between Trump and Epstein wouldn't sway very many voters. His kind and gentle attitude towards Ghislaine Maxwell hasn't moved the needle in the slightest. Trump's popularity has actually increased since he publicly "wished her well".
I don't think that the election is over, but it's going to take something major, like a war or a terrorist attack, to flip enough voters back over to Trump's camp in order to change the dynamics. More dirt on the same subjects isn't going to change anyone's mind. This election is Biden's to lose.
I-5 wrote:Was FDR charismatic? I would think so, seeing that he was the first and last president to serve 3 terms. I don’t this it’s really that controversial, but now I’m curious who you think are more charismatic presidents. My modern list would include in reverse chronological order:
Trump*
Obama
Clinton
Reagan
JFK
FDR
Teddy Roosevelt
*he has undeniable charisma, but he also purposefully alienates, resulting in more haters
I-5 wrote:Was FDR charismatic? I would think so, seeing that he was the first and last president to serve 3 terms. I don’t this it’s really that controversial, but now I’m curious who you think are more charismatic presidents. My modern list would include in reverse chronological order:
Trump*
Obama
Clinton
Reagan
JFK
FDR
Teddy Roosevelt
*he has undeniable charisma, but he also purposefully alienates, resulting in more haters
RiverDog wrote:I don't agree with that list. My idea of charismatic is that numerous people are attracted to another simply based on personality or physical looks
rather than ideology. JFK certainly qualifies as does Hitler. Clinton definitely doesn't as I once saw a survey that found that most people did not want their son to grow up like him
and did not want their daughter to marry someone like him. TR probably does, but I don't think Abe would as he was widely regarded as ugly and back woodsy. Depending on who you talk to, FDR was either charismatic or snobbish. I can agree with Reagan as he was blessed with an extraordinary ability to connect via a prepared speech such as his one after the Challenger accident.
Bottom line is that beauty is in the eye of the beholder. The criteria can't be quantified.
I'd take Bush Sr over every president in my lifetime. Charisma be damned. Bush Sr. had the mind and skill to manage a foreign war better than any president of the last 50 years.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Just because people hate him doesn't make him less charismatic. Trump has charisma in spades. Age has diminished it, but when younger he was the tall, billionaire playboy from New York who could give good interviews and get people to believe him with his mouth. Trump did not win on ideology. He won on charisma. Plenty of people share his ideology or one more moderates would prefer. They couldn't sell it as well as Trump.
RiverDog wrote:Part of the definition of charisma is that a person possess a certain type of attractiveness or charm. Even most of Trump's supporters won't claim that he's charming. To the contrary, it's Trump's complete lack of charm, ie his frankness and absence of any kind of manners or decorum, that attracts them to him. Russell Wilson has charisma because he's very charming always smiling, always positive, and physically attractive. People are drawn to him because of it. Not too many people dislike him. Richard Sherman, on the other hand, is not a charismatic figure. You either love him or hate him.
I-5 wrote:I’d take someone like Bush I in a war, too, which goes to show why charisma plays very little into the 13 keys.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Trump has tons of charisma. He is charming to people who are with him. He inspires crazy loyalty.
RiverDog wrote:Trump gets about 80% support from evangelicists. You can't convince me that he does so though charisma as his personality is a polar opposite of the vast majority of them that exspouse morality and devotion to family as part of their core beliefs. His attraction to them is strictly political in nature.
We have a different definition of charisma. Mine is that loyalty and admiration is achieved through charm, good manners, and self identification, you want to strive to be like that person. Even those that did not agree with Kennedy on much of anything were attracted to him, especially after his election. People would grow their hair to look like JFK's. I don't see that with Trump. I don't see people coloring their hair and face orange. The man hardly ever smiles or laughs. He's all business. He gains his followers because his political idealology aligns with theirs.
Hawktawk wrote: I think the selection of Kamala is brilliant. She has a background in both law enforcement and civil rights. This primary is the only election shes ever lost, she is charismatic and attractive and yes it does matter, especially for a woman. My guess is with her prosecutorial background she will give pence a run for his money in the debate and he's tarred and feathered right long with trump on this . I think Biden gets a bump for this pick. We will see.
Aseahawkfan wrote:That's not charisma. I find it funny that you think Trump gets 80% of his support from Evangelicals. You have a link to that.
NorthHawk wrote:I don't think his political ideology aligns with anyone other than those that have got on the Trump bandwagon and
now can't get off. What he's done is a great sales job and people have been snowed by him. He's not a leader, he's
not a good business person, he doesn't care about anyone but him, and he doesn't care about the country other than
for what he can get out of it by being in power.
That's not charisma, that's being an opportunist and taking advantage of people who are being played for suckers.
Do you really think he would mingle with his supporters? Not a chance. For him they are to be used for their votes
so he can achieve his personal ends, be it political or financial.
RiverDog wrote:Re-read my statement. I didn't say that Trump gets 80% of his support from evangelicals. I said that he gets 80% support from evangelicals. That means that 4 out of 5 evangelicals support Trump, and I do have links if you don't want to take my word for it.
We're going to have to agree to disagree on our definition of charisma.
I-5 wrote:Once more, charisma is not that important. At least according to the formula in the OP. It's literally 1 each (incumbent/challenger) of the 13 keys. Neither of this year's candidates qualify on that scale.
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