RiverDog wrote:There's other vaccine candidates out there. One of the more promising is Johnson and Johnson's as it is faster acting, does not require sub zero storage, has a longer shelf life, and can be effective with just one shot. This would make it a much better choice for developing countries like Africa and South America where many areas don't even have electrical power let alone medical grade freezers:
“A single dose could be a very efficient tool to combat the pandemic as it is faster acting,” he said Wednesday in an interview. Animal models and early human studies showed that one shot of its vaccine generated a strong immune response in just 15 days, he said.
“It is likely that multiple Covid-19 vaccine regimens will be required to meet the global need,” said Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in a statement. J&J’s vaccine “may be especially useful in controlling the pandemic if shown to be protective after a single dose.”
The company also said its vaccine can be stored at refrigerator temperatures for three months, far longer than the Pfizer vaccine that requires deep freezing for long-term storage.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... r-BB19lbgQ
Although there are going to be production and distribution challenges, the major problem is going to be convincing enough people to take the vaccine so that it will allow us to achieve herd immunity, estimated to be around 75% of the population.
There are still a lot of loose ends on these vaccines, such as the length of their effectiveness and their effectiveness over different demographical groups. My wife, for example, has a very unique situation where she has two auto immune diseases, MS and rheumatoid arthritis. Is the vaccine going to coax her immune system to make antibodies to fight the COVID virus? Will the vaccine have to be tweaked as the virus mutates?
But the biggest challenge, proving that the vaccines are safe, appears to have been met. The results still have to be peer reviewed and the FDA will subject it to a rigorous review process, but these companies are very reputable and have been through this process before, so it's unlikely that they will apply for FDA approval unless they're damn sure that all the 't's' are crossed and the 'i's' dotted.
I heard yesterday that Pfizer will be applying for FDA approval for their vaccine "by the end of the week", meaning today, tomorrow, or Saturday.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Pfizer is very reputable. They have been around a long time. Moderna is new and this will be their first released drug. They are at the forefront of mRNA technology, but they haven't yet released anything else.
Normal drug development takes 10 to 20 years or more. A vaccine in less than a year is an amazing accomplishment, especially if it works as well as reported. It is hard to believe really, but let us hope it does as I think we're all tired of fearing a virus and having the world locked down with only the digital economy and delivery making money.
Aseahawkfan wrote:It is in the best interest of the media, corporations, and government to support a strong and powerful media campaign to push the vaccine. If the evidence is positive and immunity across the world is being reached, people will rush to get the vaccine. The only disaster would be if a sudden unforeseen side effect popped up that was harming people on a mass scale. That would derail everything. Let's hope that doesn't happen.
Aseahawkfan wrote:From what I heard Canada ordered 10 doses for every Canadian citizen. That is 300 million doses plus last time I checked on the population. We are going to need immense amounts of this vaccine to vaccinate most of the world. We're going to have to start with the vulnerable (elderly and sick) and the health care workers, then let it trickle down preferably to people with children first with last on the list single males with no health issues.
Hawktawk wrote:males are far more susceptible to this than females, much higher mortality rate.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Anthrax vaccine information which was required by a large group pf soldiers during the first Gulf War. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthrax_vaccine_adsorbed
Even then lawyers mounted a lawsuit to prevent vaccination for military personnel. There was a big battle due to the mandatory nature of this vaccine in the military. If you think a vaccine where they forced 200,000 military personnel caused a huge legal issue, you can imagine how bad of a legal battle and uprising will ensue if the government attempts to mandate a virus produced in less than a year for regular citizens.
Mandating vaccines would slow adoption of the vaccine as legal battles ensued and fear was spread by the people engaged in the legal battles against the vaccine producing a lot of information undermining the vaccine.
Suffice it to say attempting to government mandate a vaccine would be more detrimental to adoption than a well thought out and directed marketing campaign. Vaccine mandates are a bad idea.
I-5 wrote:Don't forget, Putin's entry into the vaccine game - the Sputnik V. I can see why he wants to call it by that name, but not sure it's the best way to brand it if he wants to make it available globally. Then again, maybe that's his attempt to rekindle to 'ole glory days of the Soviet Union. Would you prefer a vaccine from Pfizer, Moderna, or Sputnik V?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-saudi-russia-idUSKBN2810IY
Aseahawkfan wrote:So Russia and China magically have vaccines before us. Ok. This is all very strange that these nations have all been able produce vaccines this quickly. All very odd.
But hey, if it works and it gets things open again, oh well. We don't have much of a choice but to go with it all as the alternative is worse. But sometimes it seems like we're living in a dystopian sci fi novel that seems to be writing itself.
RiverDog wrote:Russia has had theirs out since August, but of course, they didn't subject it to the same rigorous testing that our vaccines have to go through. China's vaccine is a week or two ahead of the American vaccines. That's one of the advantages of totalitarian societies over a democracy.
RiverDog wrote:Russia has had theirs out since August, but of course, they didn't subject it to the same rigorous testing that our vaccines have to go through. China's vaccine is a week or two ahead of the American vaccines. That's one of the advantages of totalitarian societies over a democracy.
Aseahawkfan wrote:And even ours hasn't gone through the same 10 year plus rigorous testing we normally require for a new drug or vaccine. We have to very much hope for no serious issues because any serious issues occur and we're practically back at square one since both viruses are using very similar tech.
RiverDog wrote:Time isn't a good measure for evaluating the safety of the vaccine. They can do certain steps simultaneously rather than awaiting the result of previous steps. A lot of the reason why it takes so long to get a normal vaccine approved is that the drug companies don't want to put more R&D money into a potential vaccine if it's going to fail, so they'll await the results of one step before the proceed to the next. They usually like to wait several years so they can properly evaluate how long the vaccine will be effective, which has nothing to do with the safety of the vaccine. One of the good things that the Trump Administration has done is that they've helped reduced the financial risk companies take in developing vaccines.
As far as I'm concerned, they haven't taken unreasonable short cuts that significantly compromise the safety of the vaccine. Each of the two companies that have completed Phase 3 trials have vaccinated over 30,000 volunteers and none have developed serious side effects for over two months, the time frame when most side effects become apparent.
But as is the case with all new vaccines, there's going to be unavoidable risks, especially with one that will be given on such a large scale. But in this case, the risks do not justify the consequences of going through a more deliberate process.
There's over 150 COVID vaccines in development throughout the world. The chances of all of them failing is pretty remote. They're using various ways to attack the virus.
RiverDog wrote:I wonder how many businesses will follow suit:
Australia’s largest airline, Qantas, is planning to make coronavirus vaccines — when they become available — compulsory for passengers who want to fly internationally, and its chief executive predicted that other airlines would follow.
He also said he believed vaccinations as a condition for international air travel would be mandated by more airlines: “I’ve talked to my colleagues at other airlines across the globe, and I think it’s going to be a common theme across the board.”
He said airlines and governments around the world have considered developing an electronic vaccination passport that would certify if passengers were vaccinated and with what vaccine. Mr. Joyce’s comments coincided with an announcement by the International Air Transport Association that it was in the final stages of developing a digital health pass that would provide travelers’ testing and vaccine information to governments and airlines.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/24 ... -the-world
Aseahawkfan wrote:It (mandantory vaccinations) will depend on how supportive the government is. I think it will be very tough in Western nations due to Constitutional issues as most Western nations have strong protections for individual liberties, but Asian nations will likely will pass something like this easily.
Aseahawkfan wrote:It likely depends on how effective the vaccines are and whether any unforeseen side effects occur. Gotta hope for no strange deaths or interactions after release.
RiverDog wrote:I don't think there's any question that most governments, even democratic ones, have the authority to make a vaccine mandatory. That doesn't mean that there wouldn't be some legal hoops that they'd have to jump through first. Obviously if the military can justify making vaccines mandatory for their troops, other institutions and businesses can require it as well.
If airlines can force their passengers to show proof of a vaccination before boarding, what's stopping the NFL from requiring that anyone entering a stadium produce such proof prior to entry?
There's always a certain amount of risk that any new vaccine or drug will produce unexpected side effects. My wife was on an MS drug for several years before they discovered that certain people were subject to brain damage that prompted her doctor to take her off of it. The good news is that we're not putting all of our eggs in one basket. There's scores of vaccines in the pipeline and many more to come.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Airlines cannot currently force you to take a vaccine. You are posting a story jumping the gun once again as thought is already done. It is not.
Aseahawkfan wrote:You really think that the Constitution does not support the right to not inject something into your body? You really believe this? The government can force you to put something in your body that may hurt you? You truly believe this? If you believe this, then at any point in time the government can force you to take a drug? Or what is next? A computer chip for identification? What's next once that line is crossed?
Aseahawkfan wrote:If for some reason the companies start producing drugs that say cut cardio-vascular disease or make it so heroin is usable without addictive qualities, they can force you to take it because well, government? That's the line you want crossed?
There's always a certain amount of risk that any new vaccine or drug will produce unexpected side effects. My wife was on an MS drug for several years before they discovered that certain people were subject to brain damage that prompted her doctor to take her off of it. The good news is that we're not putting all of our eggs in one basket. There's scores of vaccines in the pipeline and many more to come.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Like I said, I will not take a vaccine mandated by the government on principle. If you want our jails filled with people resisting taking a vaccine, support this rubbish. You want this vaccine immediately politicized, support at your own risk. But know, this is an issue even I will immediately arm up to resist. I will not have police or the military forcibly injecting me with a drug created by corporations. That is a line I do not want crossed. I will not be alone.
Aseahawkfan wrote:I am not going to entertain this line of thought of with you. I will only make it quite clear I won't take a mandated vaccine. Period. I will stand against tyrannical people like yourself that think it is ok to have the government force a vaccine on people that isn't proven to solve the problem and has been tested for only 9 months. I hope no politician or Western company attempts to harm American freedoms to this degree. I hope politicians and corporations are not dumb enough to immediately politicize a vaccine that could solve this whole issue.
All done talking this garbage with you until I see some politicians really trying to politicize this vaccine and mandate it. I'm going to hope this is a highly effective vaccine that sells itself so this doesn't turn into a Constitutional issue where we get to see if citizens can be forced to inject themselves with a corporate created drug as I think that precedent would be enormously bad.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Well, I'm wrong. I guess you can mandate a vaccine. Here's a nice long article discussing vaccine mandates. You win this debate, Riverdog.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-managers/guides-pubs/downloads/vacc_mandates_chptr13.pdf
If it's safe, I'll be taking it at some point anyway. Not like I'll need it mandated. I guess when it comes to having the government force things on me, I have the natural reaction of an American to resist it. As far as the logical side of my brain, I intend to take advantage of this vaccine if it will get us back to normal. I will read on it extensively first to ensure I know what the possible side effects are. I had sure better see real change. I don't intend to take some vaccine that doesn't change anything because it only works for one strain that isn't even the most dangerous strain or some garbage like that. If this vaccine works, we better see the real results of it in reduced cases and deaths and a return to normal.
RiverDog wrote:Thanks for your gracious concession and for the link. I have a friend of whom I'm having a similar debate with so that link might come in handy.
We have chemicals in our drinking water, in the foods we eat, and the air we breathe is contaminated with pollutants. The only difference between that and a vaccination is that with a vaccine, we know a lot more about what we're getting and have more of a choice. I can understand some hesitancy to take a vaccine especially when it's brand new and when it comes to giving it to your child, but when it comes down with it, there's all sorts of foreign chemicals that had we the opportunity, we might choose not to ingest them. My wife is on 11 prescription drugs and has undergone infusions that are a lot more dangerous than a vaccine.
Having a vaccine with such a high efficacy really helps as it means that fewer of us have to take it...I think Fauci said 70-75%..in order to end the pandemic. Even if I were asymptomatic and didn't have to worry about getting sick from it, I'd sill take it so that I wouldn't acquire the disease then give it to others.
That's one of the things about this crisis that has been so disappointing to me, that there are so many selfish people out there that care so little about their fellow human beings. That's one of the problems living in a country where we enjoy so many personal freedoms: That we tend to lose sight of our roles within a society, that there are some things that we must do for the common good.
Aseahawkfan wrote:People are f-ing crazy is the reality. While I was driving into work today, I saw a sign displayed on an overpass (apparently that is the thing to do now) saying, "The pandemic is a fraud. Investigate, don't hesitate" or some crap like that.
There is so much information out there you can find support for almost any position no matter how crazy. That's why we have flat earthers in the year 2020 and people who believe the moon landing was a hoax and that Bush Jr. and his cronies orchestrated 9/11. My mother even told that QAnon had people believing some pizza parlor was a place where Hilary Clinton and the liberals were sacrificing children and were part of a Satanic Cult. I don't care for liberal policies, but damn, that is crazy.
I talk with some of these loons. They really believe what this crap. I'll always remember this guy who listened to Art Bell and told me aliens would land on The White House lawn within a year about 30 years ago. Never happened. My mother swears to this day she saw a leprechaun under an old wagon while she was playing with her sister.
It's fun to debate things on an internet forum for entertainment. But man, it's unreal how crazy people are and what they believe in with the barest of evidence. Especially when so much real stuff is happening right in front of their face and they don't need to look under rocks to find bad policies and conspiracies occurring.
RiverDog wrote:Yesterday the FDA's advisory committee recommended emergency use authorization for the Pfizer vaccine. FDA approval is expected either today or tomorrow with needles in the arm by Monday. Moderna's vaccine is scheduled to undergo the same critical review on the 17th, or next Thursday. Johnson & Johnson's vaccine, perhaps the most promising as it requires just one dose and does not require super cold storage temperatures, is on schedule to file for approval in early January. Astra-Zeneca made some mistakes in their trials but should still be ready to request approval at the end of this month or early next month. There's a good chance that by early January, we'll have 4 FDA approved vaccines.
It appears that more of the American public is expressing a willingness to receive the vaccination with recent surveys ticking up slightly from 60% to 63%. Experts say that we need to achieve a 70-85% vaccination rate to achieve herd immunity.
We're losing 3,000+ lives per day to COVID. I saw a graphic this morning that claims that we have had more deaths due to COVID in the past 9 months than all the American combat deaths in World War 2, which was stretched over nearly 4 years.
RiverDog wrote:Yesterday the FDA's advisory committee recommended emergency use authorization for the Pfizer vaccine. FDA approval is expected either today or tomorrow with needles in the arm by Monday. Moderna's vaccine is scheduled to undergo the same critical review on the 17th, or next Thursday. Johnson & Johnson's vaccine, perhaps the most promising as it requires just one dose and does not require super cold storage temperatures, is on schedule to file for approval in early January. Astra-Zeneca made some mistakes in their trials but should still be ready to request approval at the end of this month or early next month. There's a good chance that by early January, we'll have 4 FDA approved vaccines.
It appears that more of the American public is expressing a willingness to receive the vaccination with recent surveys ticking up slightly from 60% to 63%. Experts say that we need to achieve a 70-85% vaccination rate to achieve herd immunity.
We're losing 3,000+ lives per day to COVID. I saw a graphic this morning that claims that we have had more deaths due to COVID in the past 9 months than all the American combat deaths in World War 2, which was stretched over nearly 4 years.
c_hawkbob wrote:All of the news I'm watching (local, NBC, Shep Smith) are saying just the 70% target, you are the first I've heard of anywhere near 85%. As for when we can expect to reach that point, late spring/summer seems to be the optimistic projection.
Aseahawkfan wrote:I'm not worried about people taking the vaccine. They talk tough now, but once they see this thing working they will rush to take it.
If it doesn't work, then we're screwed.
NorthHawk wrote:Pressuring and encouraging the pharmaceutical industry to focus on a vaccine was an excellent move and shows the power
of the Presidency. However, as it became a worldwide effort, it contradicts his America first (which also played out as America alone) narrative. As well, some of the biggest steps forward were made from immigrants to their new countries.
NorthHawk wrote:It's been said by some of the scientists that the lesser effective vaccines may go to the poorer countries because they are more stable at higher temperatures. That would seem reasonable in the short term and it would seem that as the science improves, there will be
a way to produce the vaccine with the highest effectiveness that can withstand higher temperatures.
NorthHawk wrote:Who knows how long the immunity will last, but if it means another Flu shot each year, then that's a better price to pay than shutdowns.
RiverDog wrote:They've already been discussing the possibility of combining an annual flu shot with a COVID vaccine into one vaccination. That would be ideal as it would likely increase the number of people getting annual flu vaccinations.
Aseahawkfan wrote:This vaccine is 95% effective against this strain of the coronavirus and either we kill it or life does not return to normal. This will be more like the polio vaccine where eradication will eventually occur or we will have to figure out other vaccines for other strains that will be equally deadly.
SARS-COV1 and MERS were eradicated through containment measures. SARS-COV2 we will eradicate with this vaccine over the next year or two or we're screwed.
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