RiverDog wrote:I disagree. We do not necessarily need to completely eradicate COVID. What the vaccine does is take the pressure off our health care system. The mortality rate of COVID isn't that bad so long as it's not spreading uncontrollably like it is now. The other factor here is treatment. As we learn more about the disease, there's the very strong likelihood of our developing more effective treatments.
NorthHawk wrote:The Flu vaccine changes every year and if this covid virus is still changing then they would probably change the shots along with
the mutations to keep it effective. Just like the Flu vaccine.
If however the vast majority of people get vaccinated, there’s a chance it can become almost irrelevant. It would still be
around but not be able to find hosts to replicate and spread.
Aseahawkfan wrote:I have no idea why you are looking at this like the flu, when it isn't the flu. This particular strain is not meant to continue. The entire reason they were able to create a vaccine so quickly is because it is not mutating like the flu virus does. It is supposedly stable. That is why these vaccines have such a high rate of efficacy versus the flu shot which is in the 40% range which I posted at the top of the thread.
RiverDog wrote:It is possible that COVID could become seasonal like the flu:
An expert in infectious diseases recently said he expects the coronavirus to become a seasonal virus — even though a COVID-19 vaccine is on the way.
In September, a new study argued that COVID-19 would likely become seasonal similar to influenza — but only after there is a vaccine and the society becomes immune to it.
“In temperate regions, this would mean reduced infections in the summer and peaks in the winter. However, this seasonality is only likely to occur once a vaccine is developed and greater herd immunity is achieved,” according to Medical News Today.
https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2020/ ... nal-future
There are various studies out there regarding how COVID is likely to mature that are often times contradictory. My point is that we don't know how it will mature, so I stand by my statement: We do not necessarily have to eradicate it.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Fortunately, that is not what the current data is telling us. I expect eradication within a few years depending on how long it takes to get everyone inoculated. But we shall see. You are certainly jumping the gun on a yearly vaccination though. Doesn't really fit the information we've been given about effectiveness and how viruses work.
NorthHawk wrote:It's also well known that there are variants of this virus already in the wild.
The report of the Ravens said they had at least 4 variants of Covid-19 in their last bout with it and we know that the version that came from Europe was different from the one from China.
The vaccine at this point covers the mutations, but who's to say it always will? That's in part why it may be included in the annual flu shots. The other reason is it's not known if the protection
will last for a lifetime or for a relatively short time like a year or 2.
RiverDog wrote:I am not saying that we will have yearly COVID vaccinations. I am saying that it is possible.
We're in basic agreement on the virus and the vaccines. Where we differ is your statement that if we don't completely eradicate the virus, we're screwed. That may or may not be true. We simply don't know enough about it yet.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Hopefully we can all agree that we will hope for eradication. This thing showing up on a yearly basis sounds like a nightmare.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Can you imagine locking down and masking up on a yearly basis? I don't see Americans tolerating it. They'll straight up rebel at some point. So many businesses and livelihoods have been destroyed at this point, no way Americans will stand for it every year if this doesn't work.
RiverDog wrote:I saw a survey this morning that claims over 80% of Americans are willing to get the vaccine:
More than eight in 10 Americans say they would receive the vaccine, with 40% saying they would take it as soon as it's available to them and 44% saying they would wait a bit before getting it.
Only 15% said they would refuse the vaccine entirely in the new survey
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/america ... e_hero_hed
I hope that's accurate. Previous surveys were showing less than 60% would be willing to get it. Apparently the deliberate analysis the FDA took before authorizing it has paid off. And to give credit where credit is due, Trump's being squarely behind it has undoubtedly helped public acceptance.
Later this week, Moderna's vaccine will undergo the same process that Pfizer's went through. Theirs is a lot more viable as it doesn't require sub Arctic storage temperatures.
RiverDog wrote:I saw a survey this morning that claims over 80% of Americans are willing to get the vaccine:
More than eight in 10 Americans say they would receive the vaccine, with 40% saying they would take it as soon as it's available to them and 44% saying they would wait a bit before getting it.
Only 15% said they would refuse the vaccine entirely in the new survey
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/america ... e_hero_hed
I hope that's accurate. Previous surveys were showing less than 60% would be willing to get it. Apparently the deliberate analysis the FDA took before authorizing it has paid off. And to give credit where credit is due, Trump's being squarely behind it has undoubtedly helped public acceptance.
Later this week, Moderna's vaccine will undergo the same process that Pfizer's went through. Theirs is a lot more viable as it doesn't require sub Arctic storage temperatures.
Aseahawkfan wrote:I think 80% will go even higher if it works and the numbers start dropping. The main thing we have to hope for is no serious issues upon release. We need this to go smoothly and numbers to drop.
RiverDog wrote:The FDA's initial review of the data related to the Moderna vaccine confirms earlier reports:
The review by the F.D.A. confirms Moderna’s earlier assessment that its vaccine had an efficacy rate of 94.1 percent in a trial of 30,000 people. Side effects, including fever, headache and fatigue, were unpleasant but not dangerous, the agency found.
The data release is the first step of a public review process that will include a daylong meeting on Thursday by an independent advisory panel of experts. They will hear from Moderna, F.D.A. scientists and the public before voting on whether to recommend authorization. The panel is expected to vote yes, and the F.D.A. generally follows the experts’ recommendations.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... d=msedgntp
I heard a person explain that the side effects, ie headaches, fever, fatigue, etc, were actually a good sign as it was a result of a "waking up" of the body's immune system, that it was responding to the vaccine as it was intended to.
I share your optimism with both the vaccines themselves and with the public's increasing acceptance of them. 2021 is going to be a great year!
RiverDog wrote:I disagree. We do not necessarily need to completely eradicate COVID. What the vaccine does is take the pressure off our health care system. The mortality rate of COVID isn't that bad so long as it's not spreading uncontrollably like it is now. The other factor here is treatment. As we learn more about the disease, there's the very strong likelihood of our developing more effective treatments.
RiverDog wrote:I disagree. We do not necessarily need to completely eradicate COVID. What the vaccine does is take the pressure off our health care system. The mortality rate of COVID isn't that bad so long as it's not spreading uncontrollably like it is now. The other factor here is treatment. As we learn more about the disease, there's the very strong likelihood of our developing more effective treatments.
Aseahawkfan wrote:I guess we have a fundamentally different understanding on the science of a 95% effective vaccine. COVID19 should be eradicated by a 95% effective virus. If it is not, then it likely did not work at 95% effectiveness. That is bad news in my opinion.
RiverDog wrote:You're missing my point. My point is that an effective vaccine is not the only way to defeating this disease. Treatment and prevention are other means that can be utilized. Case in point is the AIDS epidemic. It's a virus, too (actually HIV), but we've developed effective treatments to where it is no longer the death sentence it once was.
RiverDog wrote:I just got a text from my daughter. She's signed up to get her vaccine next Monday.
RiverDog wrote:I just got a text from my daughter. She's signed up to get her vaccine next Monday.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Nice. Now we will get first hand information on how it goes. Super helpful.
RiverDog wrote:I guess I'm the first one in our small group with a family member having received the vaccine. My daughter, a charge nurse at an urgent care clinic in Spokane, just posted a picture of herself showing a band aid on her upper arm. No side effects so far.
RiverDog wrote:I guess I'm the first one in our small group with a family member having received the vaccine. My daughter, a charge nurse at an urgent care clinic in Spokane, just posted a picture of herself showing a band aid on her upper arm. No side effects so far.
NorthHawk wrote:Every new type of rollout will have it's problems and this is to be expected. As well, there are some supply chain concerns and distributions challenges to overcome.
Add to it Trumps overoptimistic self imposed time table and it disappoints people.
The other issue that all nations have is the people on the ground to actually administer the vaccinations. There are more people that want them than can give them
and with everyone having to wait for 15 to 30 minutes in case of an allergic reaction, it slows things down considerably. As well, I've heard that many if not most
States don't have the infrastructure to distribute a mass vaccination of this sort and need money to do so. So I think if you add all that in and probably more it's not
surprising that the rollout is behind the announced targets.
All of what you listed is true, but 3 million shots vs. a promised 20 million? That's a huge discrepancy to explain. You can't tell me that a lot of those problems you noted couldn't have been anticipated. They KNEW that they were going to have to provide waiting areas to monitor possible side effects. They KNEW, or should have known, the infrastructure that existed. The government's had months to prepare for this rollout.
All of what you listed is true, but 3 million shots vs. a promised 20 million? That's a huge discrepancy to explain. You can't tell me that a lot of those problems you noted couldn't have been anticipated. They KNEW that they were going to have to provide waiting areas to monitor possible side effects. They KNEW, or should have known, the infrastructure that existed. The government's had months to prepare for this rollout.
NorthHawk wrote:It's never been done before on such a wide scale, so there are going to be a lot of unknowns to overcome as well as setting up state infrastructures to distribute. Even if they've had months to work out a plan, large scale operations rarely follow that plan perfectly and most of the issues appear early on. In a perfect world where there were no weather issues and all of the infrastructure was already set
up, we would be a lot closer to the 10 million landmark. I expect things to get a lot better in the coming months with distributing the vaccines and reaching their goals. Some of the problems do lie with
the Federal Gov't in funding for many States to put up an infrastructure to distribute the vaccine. The President as normal is handing off the responsibilities for that far quicker than he should and moving
on to other things. So the real problems that will probably hamper the process is lack of money at the State level in a lot of cases. Things like rural areas and inner cities where there aren't pharmacies
in the area so local people have ready access are just two big problems to overcome, and there are more, I'm sure.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Why are we allowing ourselves to be so terrible right now? smh.
RiverDog wrote:I just got a text from my daughter. She's signed up to get her vaccine next Monday.
RiverDog wrote:I just got a text from my daughter. She's signed up to get her vaccine next Monday.
c_hawkbob wrote:Evidently Washington is doing better with their rollout tan is my state, My kids that also work in a nursing home are set up to get theirs finally next week.
RiverDog wrote:
Not really. As of yesterday, 356,000 doses have been delivered to WA yet only 59,000 have been administered, or less than 17%. I think I read or heard somewhere is that part of the problem is that the government still hasn't finalized their contracts with CVS and Walgren's to administer vaccinations to nursing homes and assisted living facilities, but don't quote me on that.
RiverDog wrote:Not really. As of yesterday, 356,000 doses have been delivered to WA yet only 59,000 have been administered, or less than 17%. I think I read or heard somewhere is that part of the problem is that the government still hasn't finalized their contracts with CVS and Walgren's to administer vaccinations to nursing homes and assisted living facilities, but don't quote me on that.
c_hawkbob wrote:I believe they're setting up a room at the facility and having the shots actually administered by the staff at my kid's work.
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