COVID19 Vaccine Information

[Hawktawk]

America's greatness has been greatly overestimated obviously.We are a nation in steep decline, total dysfunction, greed, avarice, moral decay.
The medical heros of March have become "sucks to be you, should have done something else for work" as people flout guidelines and the administration ignores the issue.

The perfect storm with this rollout is that according to the surgeon general states lack the resources , personnel and money to handle this rollout.
And guess what's not in the relief package? Money for states .
Mitt Romney has called the lack of a national strategy "unconscionable" and has called for military medics and veterinarians to assist in sticking as many arms as fast as possible. Only a blind man cant see whats coming out of the holiday season with this new strain and people travelling by the millions. This nation could face utter collapse of our medical system in the coming weeks. It's a national security threat at this point.

[RiverDog]

America's greatness has been greatly overestimated obviously.We are a nation in steep decline, total dysfunction, greed, avarice, moral decay.
The medical heros of March have become "sucks to be you, should have done something else for work" as people flout guidelines and the administration ignores the issue.

The perfect storm with this rollout is that according to the surgeon general states lack the resources , personnel and money to handle this rollout.
And guess what's not in the relief package? Money for states .
Mitt Romney has called the lack of a national strategy "unconscionable" and has called for military medics and veterinarians to assist in sticking as many arms as fast as possible. Only a blind man cant see whats coming out of the holiday season with this new strain and people travelling by the millions. This nation could face utter collapse of our medical system in the coming weeks. It's a national security threat at this point.

You can't blame the federal government for all of the screw ups, not when some states, like Nebraska, South Dakota, and West Virginia can perform one heck of a lot better than others. It certainly would have helped had the federal government been more proactive and offered more guidance, but it's not an excuse for doing nothing. They've had 6 months to get this figured out. George Patton once said that a good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow, but our state doesn't have any plan, perfect or otherwise.

It seems like they have more vaccine available than they have arms put it in or people to handle the needles, so start sending it to the primary and urgent care clinics and have them start giving it to their patients as they come in. If for whatever reason we can't get the priority folks vaccinated in a timely manner, then go to Plan B and start getting doses out to the general public. The object is to get as many people vaccinated in the shortest amount of time.

My wife, whom has two auto immune diseases, should be in the next group to be vaccinated. She has an appointment with her primary care doctor this Tuesday. Her doctor is a real aggressive type of guy with a chip on his shoulder, doesn't take no for an answer. Their office has been doing both COVID and antibody testing. Hopefully we'll find out something then.

[RiverDog]

Former FDA Chief Scott Gottlieb is recommending that the eligibility to receive a COVID vaccine should be expanded immediately:

"Right now, every shot in an arm is a win," the former FDA chief told CNBC on Monday. "Putting away 50% of all the doses, I think, is denying more people access to a vaccine," he added.

Because of the intensity of the current Covid-19 outbreak, with some hospital systems being strained and thousands of Americans dying from the disease each week, Gottlieb said the priority should be rolling out as many initial doses as possible. "We know getting vaccines in arms can be a partial backstop against continued spread," he added

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/04/covid-v ... anded.html

I'm in agreement. We're going to have to rely on manufactures to come to the party and produce enough doses so people can get their second shot when the time comes. Besides, with more vaccines becoming available later in the spring, especially Johnson and Johnson's which requires just one dose, vaccine availability won't be an issue.

[NorthHawk]

I've just been looking up the effectiveness of just one dose. The information is mixed with some saying it's in the 80% to 90% range but one of the
companies producing it says they have no studies after 21 days so they don't know if it will last after that. Apparently the Biden admin will not hold
back the 50% required for 2nd doses but rather administer all of it in the hope that it is effective and slowing the spread initially.
Maybe that shock to the spread will give us enough time to get ahead of it and start to get back to normal sooner.

[NorthHawk]

On a bit of a lighter note, has anyone noticed how every TV segment on the virus is compelled to have a view of people getting their shots?
At times it's almost comical. A few years ago there was a short segment, approximately 2 minutes long about seasonal Flu shots and I counted
19 separate views of vaccines being administered. If we had a drinking game for it, we would have been under the table in 2 minutes! It was
absolutely ridiculous. You don't see car crashes when they discuss insurance rates, don't see accountants with pencils working feverishly at tax
time or other things that are routinely presented. So why this obsession with closeups of needles being stuck into people?
Keep it in mind the next time you watch the news.

[RiverDog]

I've just been looking up the effectiveness of just one dose. The information is mixed with some saying it's in the 80% to 90% range but one of the companies producing it says they have no studies after 21 days so they don't know if it will last after that. Apparently the Biden admin will not hold back the 50% required for 2nd doses but rather administer all of it in the hope that it is effective and slowing the spread initially. Maybe that shock to the spread will give us enough time to get ahead of it and start to get back to normal sooner.

Yes, that's my point exactly. I'm seeing information where 60-70% of the vaccines that have been delivered to states are sitting in storage. There's no reason to believe that the supply of vaccines is suddenly going to stop, especially when others are going to come onto the market within the next couple of months, so it makes no sense to hold any back for a 2nd shot that's not due for another 3-4 weeks. The object should be to get as many needles into arms as possible, especially in places like CA and AZ where the pandemic is the worst, and stop the spread as quickly as possible and save lives.

I'm hearing that one of the problems is that they don't have enough qualified people to give vaccinations. My wife is a retired nurse and worked in nursing homes for over 40 years. She's given tens of thousands of pokes in the arm. The Washington Department of Health has her contact information as it hasn't changed in 20 years. She has said that she would volunteer to help give vaccinations without pay. If the problem is that they don't have enough qualified personnel to give the vaccinations, why haven't they reached out to her or go out and ask for volunteers and see how many respond?

There's all sorts of people that can give vaccinations, from veterinarians to dental assistants. The government, whether it be federal or local, has had at least 6 months to anticipate this, yet they are still way behind the curve.

I get pissed off every time I think or write about this subject.

[RiverDog]

This vaccine rollout is FUBAR. The more I think about it, the more I'm tempted to throw away all these priorities and groupings and do it by tossing 365 numbers corresponding to each day in the year into a bin and pulling out 10 a week. If your birthday falls on that date, you can make an appointment to go to a clinic or pharmacy and get the vaccine.

They're over complicating it, and we're making it too long and drawn out. The object should be to get as many needles into arms as possible as quickly as possible.

[Aseahawkfan]

This vaccine rollout is FUBAR. The more I think about it, the more I'm tempted to throw away all these priorities and groupings and do it by tossing 365 numbers corresponding to each day in the year into a bin and pulling out 10 a week. If your birthday falls on that date, you can make an appointment to go to a clinic or pharmacy and get the vaccine.

They're over complicating it, and we're making it too long and drawn out. The object should be to get as many needles into arms as possible as quickly as possible.

10 more days until the idiot is gone. Then instead of a president that sits in his office like a teenage girl brooding he was kicked off twitter we'll have a president that understands he has a job to do.

[RiverDog]

10 more days until the idiot is gone. Then instead of a president that sits in his office like a teenage girl brooding he was kicked off twitter we'll have a president that understands he has a job to do.

The problems with the vaccine rollout goes WAY beyond Trump and the federal government. The fact that some states, like the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Connecticut, three rural states and an urbanized one, are doing very well with getting shots in the arm, while others have 70% of the vaccines sitting in their freezers should tell us something.

The federal government doesn't have the authority to tell states how to distribute the vaccines. All they can do is offer recommendations. The individual states are just as, if not more, responsible for this f-up rollout as the feds are.

[Aseahawkfan]

The problems with the vaccine rollout goes WAY beyond Trump and the federal government. The fact that some states, like the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Connecticut, three rural states and an urbanized one, are doing very well with getting shots in the arm, while others have 70% of the vaccines sitting in their freezers should tell us something.

The federal government doesn't have the authority to tell states how to distribute the vaccines. All they can do is offer recommendations. The individual states are just as, if not more, responsible for this f-up rollout as the feds are.

I expect better State and Federal coordination once Angry Teenage Girl is gone.

[RiverDog]

I expect better State and Federal coordination once Angry Teenage Girl is gone.

We'll see. If the front line workers don't want it, then they need to open it up to all those that are willing to get poked. Take everybody's birthday week, 1-52, and select at random which people are eligible for the vaccine and let them make an appointment at a pharmacy or clinic. Get the vaccine into as many arms and as quickly as possible.

I'm still pissed that my wife hasn't been asked if she'd be willing to administer vaccines or at least babysit the recipient for 15 minutes. She was a licensed nurse for 40 years and has administered thousands, if not tens of thousands of vaccines. She said she'd do it for free.

[RiverDog]

This vaccine rollout is so frigging screwed up, both at the federal as well as the state level. Here in WA, the 2nd tier of recipients after health care and nursing homes is 70+ and anyone 50+ living in a multi generational household. The age group that my wife and I are in, 65-69, isn't even listed. They plan to vaccinate the homeless before they get around to my age group even though both the Trump and Biden Administrations are recommending that 65+ receive priority. And Washington isn't the only state with a nonsensical prioritization. New Jersey is giving smokers priority over teachers.

What they are doing is forcing people to lie. They have said that they are depending on the honesty of citizens to tell the truth about their priority status, but I'll be damned if I'm going to wait until the general public is vaccinated when every other entity is saying 65+ should receive top priority.

The solution is so simple that a blind man could see it. Forget about underlying conditions, employment status, and living conditions. They are confusing and difficult or impossible to prove or disprove. Many of them are refusing anyway and adding to the chaos. Just start with 80+ and give them appointment windows based on their birthday month. Age and birthdates are easy to prove. Once vaccinations slow down, then take it down to 75+. They can designate a pharmacy for special needs. The doctor can call it in as they would a prescription. Mobile clinics can be used to go to employment locations. My former employer used to give flu shots at the plant.

This really has me upset. My wife and I have taken this pandemic very seriously, complied with all the mandates, supported the restrictions, and we have been looking forward to getting a vaccine in another month or so. But now we find out that it might not be until summer. And to think that up to 50% of those that are eligible are refusing them. It's no wonder the country is so on edge.

[Hawktawk]

This vaccine rollout is so frigging screwed up, both at the federal as well as the state level. Here in WA, the 2nd tier of recipients after health care and nursing homes is 70+ and anyone 50+ living in a multi generational household. The age group that my wife and I are in, 65-69, isn't even listed. They plan to vaccinate the homeless before they get around to my age group even though both the Trump and Biden Administrations are recommending that 65+ receive priority. And Washington isn't the only state with a nonsensical prioritization. New Jersey is giving smokers priority over teachers.

What they are doing is forcing people to lie. They have said that they are depending on the honesty of citizens to tell the truth about their priority status, but I'll be damned if I'm going to wait until the general public is vaccinated when every other entity is saying 65+ should receive top priority.

The solution is so simple that a blind man could see it. Forget about underlying conditions, employment status, and living conditions. They are confusing and difficult or impossible to prove or disprove. Many of them are refusing anyway and adding to the chaos. Just start with 80+ and give them appointment windows based on their birthday month. Age and birthdates are easy to prove. Once vaccinations slow down, then take it down to 75+. They can designate a pharmacy for special needs. The doctor can call it in as they would a prescription. Mobile clinics can be used to go to employment locations. My former employer used to give flu shots at the plant.

This really has me upset. My wife and I have taken this pandemic very seriously, complied with all the mandates, supported the restrictions, and we have been looking forward to getting a vaccine in another month or so. But now we find out that it might not be until summer. And to think that up to 50% of those that are eligible are refusing them. It's no wonder the country is so on edge.

Hey MAGA though right???....
Not sure Trump isn't the antichrist. This has been a perfect storm. This is what happens when all the adults in the room were tweet fired years ago and an administrator is down to incompetent ass kissing sycophants. This is what happens when a president has no national strategy because he wanted to be able to blame governors for their failures. He should have been impeached for ignoring this pandemic. I dont think he's even addressed the pandemic in over 6 weeks while having plenty of time for insurrection.

Pure evil

[NorthHawk]

It's also part of the far right Republican ideal of limiting government. Things like this happen when you try to shrink Gov't down so much like Grover Nordquist said so it's so small you can throw it in the bathtub and drown it.
If you don't believe there should be any gov't programs and try to make it irrelevant, it will become so. In this case with nobody at the top that believes in National programs and are totally inexperienced, confusion and problems
are bound to occur.

[RiverDog]

It's also part of the far right Republican ideal of limiting government. Things like this happen when you try to shrink Gov't down so much like Grover Nordquist said so it's so small you can throw it in the bathtub and drown it.
If you don't believe there should be any gov't programs and try to make it irrelevant, it will become so. In this case with nobody at the top that believes in National programs and are totally inexperienced, confusion and problems
are bound to occur.

There's a huge disparity in the state's performances in administering the vaccine. Many of the most successful are red states, like West Virginia, the Dakotas, and Montana are all over 50%. Red state Texas, the 2nd largest in terms of both area and population, is at 52% of doses they've received while solid blue California is at 28%. And it doesn't seem to be related to population density or urbanization: Connecticut, a blue state, is the most urbanized state in the nation, and they have administered 56% of their stock. IMO the "Republican ideal to limit government" has nothing to do with the administration of the vaccine.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

Obviously the Trump Administration deserves a good share of the blame for the slow and confusing roll-out of the vaccines, but that's not my main beef. My angst comes with this nonsensical vaccination priority designation, and to that extent, the federal government bears little blame. As a matter of fact, very few of the states have adapted the CDC recommendations for the prioritization of vaccination. At least as far as developing a vaccination plan, this is the state's baby.

This state's prioritization is hugely complicated and confusing. For example, the next group in this state includes over 50 that live in a multi generational household. What's the definition of a generation? There is none. How do you prove that you live in a multigenerational household? You can't, it's based on the honor system. So if you're over 50 and have kids that are in their 20's living with you, then you should be eligible, right? Nope! A glance at the fine print reveals this disclaimer:

Not include an older adult who is able to live independently and is taking care of the individual’s children

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Docume ... zation.pdf

These highly debatable, subjective criteria is pissing people off. There's school teachers in New Jersey complaining that smokers are going ahead of them, educators in Colorado complaining that rich, private schools are getting vaccinated ahead of poorer districts. Residents of Florida are complaining that rich business tycoons from NY are flying to the Sunshine State and getting vaccinated. And here in Washington state, many seniors, the 65-69 group I'm in, are complaining that they're vaccinating the homeless ahead of them. Our states need a heavy dose of the KISS principle.

[NorthHawk]

That's where a Federal Government presence helps. They can provide money for those States that don't have the infrastructure or are cash poor and help coordinate a common approach across the country if required.
People working together from the Feds to community levels makes a world of difference. As far as retired health providers being re-activated (for a lack of a better term), are there national requirements in play or are
those standards solely the responsibility of the State? If re-certification is required, it should be coordinated with all levels of gov't should it be required or maybe temporary suspension of certifications for those who
haven't been out of practice for a certain time frame. There are often a lot of different things that can impede successful implementations of programs if not considered. I don't know if that's the case at all here, but
the different levels of gov't seemingly not working together creates a lot of frustration and possibly abuse of the system by those with access or influence.

[RiverDog]

That's where a Federal Government presence helps. They can provide money for those States that don't have the infrastructure or are cash poor and help coordinate a common approach across the country if required.

West Virginia is consistently ranked as one of the poorest states in the nation, yet they lead the country in the percent of vaccine stock that has been administered. Puerto Rico is doing better than Washington state. Besides, I'm not talking about funding. I'm talking about the vaccination prioritization. There's very little that funding has to do with with determining who gets the shot and in what order.

People working together from the Feds to community levels makes a world of difference. As far as retired health providers being re-activated (for a lack of a better term), are there national requirements in play or are those standards solely the responsibility of the State?

That's one of the problems that the United States has with our coronavirus response. The states have almost exclusive control over standards and mandates so it's an uncoordinated patchwork of a plan. The only thing the federal government has control over is the manufacture and approval of the vaccines and their distribution to the states. The only thing that the CDC, Operation Warp Speed, and the Biden team can do is make recommendations. Ironically, all 3 of those entities have recommended 65+. Washington state is the only state that I know of that has not given the 65-69 age group some sort of prioritization.

If re-certification is required, it should be coordinated with all levels of gov't should it be required or maybe temporary suspension of certifications for those who haven't been out of practice for a certain time frame. There are often a lot of different things that can impede successful implementations of programs if not considered. I don't know if that's the case at all here, but the different levels of gov't seemingly not working together creates a lot of frustration and possibly abuse of the system by those with access or influence.

Once again, that's up to individual states. My wife was a licensed nurse for over 40 years and worked in nursing homes and has poked tens of thousands of arms over her career. They have talked about recruiting retired health care professionals to help with administering vaccines yet the state has not so much as sent her a form letter to gauge her interest. My wife said that she'd volunteer to do it for free. They've had over 6 months to plan for this eventuality as they knew early last summer what the storage and vaccination challenges were going to be.

The states, by complicating this vaccination prioritization with criteria that is difficult if not impossible to rationalize, is setting themselves up for accusations of playing God. Does a homeless person deserve priority over a senior who paid his taxes? Should a smoker get priority over a non-smoker? Should a teacher get priority over a police officer?

There's no way the state is going to make this fair and equitable. It's the old adage of trying to please all the people all the time. That's why they need to make this as simple and objective as possible: Just go by age, starting with the oldest and working their way to the youngest. If there's others that have a legitimate need, let them make an appointment with their provider or get a prescription from their doctor as if they were getting a drug.

[Aseahawkfan]

2 more days until Angry Teenage Girl is gone. I'm expecting better if for no other reason than anything will be better than the total lack of leadership and angry tantrums of a man acting like he's on his period.

[RiverDog]

Halleluiah! Our HUA governor finally pulled his head out and added a tiny bit of common sense to this vaccine rollout in our state. Washington has expanded eligibility to 65+ and move to the second phase, 1b Tier 1. I've spent the last several hours writing emails to various vaccination locations to see if I can make an appointment for myself and my wife.

I have a classmate, same age as I am, that got hers yesterday via a surprise mass vaccination clinic. Apparently they had a bunch of vaccine that was about to expire so they organized a surprise mass vaccination site in College Place a few hours ahead of the governor's announcement. She said that she had to wait in her car for a couple of hours but that it was well organized. The surprise pop-up clinic yesterday confirms my suspicion, that there is vaccine available but that the states are disorganized in distributing and administering it. All the politicians are doing is pointing fingers at each other.

Along with Inslee's announcement of the expanded vaccination eligibility and phasing, they announced that they will be partnering with several corporations, such as Starbuck's and Microsoft, to help in the distribution effort. This should have happened months ago.

I'm still of the opinion that they are making this way more complicated than necessary.

[RiverDog]

I saw this morning where despite the state's complaining about vaccine supply problems that last week, nation wide by the end of the week we administered 1.4 million doses given per day, which would be well ahead of Biden's target of 100 million doses in 100 days.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... a099143f1e

Some of that increase may be due to some states releasing doses they've been holding back, but the good news is that it shows that we have the capability to give that many shots in a day. As more doses become available, we should be able to be in relatively good shape by the time summer gets here. I'm not buying the media hype spurred by governors complaining about supply. Some of it may be politically motivated, an effort to blame the previous administration in the event of failure, like pre-registering an excuse.

I've seen several pop-up clinics here in my area, and all reports are that they went extremely well, that they got all their doses administered within the time they projected and that people were very pleased with the experience. The only complaints I'm hearing is not knowing in advance that a clinic is taking appointments and accusations of favoritism, but the clinics don't have a good handle on how much vaccine they're going to get or when they will get it so it's likely going to be like that until they get a better handle on what's in the pipeline.

There is one pop-up clinic scheduled to start tomorrow that wasn't able to get their reservation system running in time so they're going first come, first served, which will be a nightmare.

[RiverDog]

Last night I got an email from the clinic that gave us our first COVID vaccination back on 1/22 to sign up for an appointment to get our 2nd dose on 2/20. They were reluctant to give 2nd shot appointments because they don't know how much vaccine the state will give to them until the Thursday of the prior week and the don't want to have to cancel thousands of appointments if the state doesn't come through. So far, all the feedback I've been getting is that the clinics in this area are doing a fantastic job of getting people in and out. Our mass vaccination site here in the Tri Cities has actually had to send out real time alerts asking people with appointments to come early as there was no waiting. Even when we've had snow and windstorms, they've managed to get all their vaccine administered within the week without wasting any.

And there's been some feel good stories. One evening In Seattle, a medical grade freezer broke down and at 9:00pm, health care workers went into various clinics and worked until 5:00am the next morning administering vaccine. Some providers in Oregon that were transporting vaccine got stuck in a snow storm and rather than letting the vaccine spoil, went car-to-car giving fellow stranded travelers vaccinations. Once the pipeline fills with more vaccine, I'm very confident that we have the procedures and infrastructure in place to administer 2 million vaccinations per day.

The two big questions now is will we be able to get vaccine administered before these new variants drive infections back up and will enough people agree to get vaccinated to allow us to achieve some degree of herd immunity. Then comes the challenge of getting vaccinations to the rest of the world, which in my view, is nearly as critical as getting our own people vaccinated.

[Aseahawkfan]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/californias-coronavirus-strain-looks-increasingly-130055544.html

It is looking more and more like the powers that be are setting us up for an endless lockdown because the science, yet the government can't afford to do this. Now they are listing strains the vaccines don't work against and pushing the narrative that will lead to an endless lockdown like some kind of dystopian society where we hide from a virus destroying our world and relying on government stimulus and online remote work forever as though that can employ everyone.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: at some point we are going to have to learn to eat a lot of death and let nature do what it does to ensure survival of the species. Until governments and humans as a whole can make these types of hard decisions, they will destroy the world as we know it and leave us impoverished and crushed, save for those with the money to buy normalcy. That's a terrible life for humans.

[c_hawkbob]

It is looking more and more like the powers that be are setting us up for an endless lockdown because the science

Nonsense. It isn't looking like that at all. If you listen to the full interview with these guys instead of the sensationalized bad news headlines they are all still very firm on reaching herd immunity this year.

[RiverDog]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/californias-coronavirus-strain-looks-increasingly-130055544.html

It is looking more and more like the powers that be are setting us up for an endless lockdown because the science, yet the government can't afford to do this. Now they are listing strains the vaccines don't work against and pushing the narrative that will lead to an endless lockdown like some kind of dystopian society where we hide from a virus destroying our world and relying on government stimulus and online remote work forever as though that can employ everyone.

It depends on who you listen to:

Public health officials and researchers have predictions about when and how that end to the pandemic will come. Some see a serious chance for a return to some kind of normalcy in a matter of weeks. Others might wish that to be true, but believe we will still be living with the coronavirus for months to come.

For example, while top researchers said April could be the month we emerge from a long pandemic, Anthony Fauci, MD, the chief White House medical adviser on COVID-19, said this week Americans may still have to wear masks in 2022, but life will be sort of normal before then.

Here's a sampling of opinions about how optimistic we should be that the pandemic is nearing its end, and why:

Marty Makary, MD, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, predicted in a Wall Street Journal commentary, published Feb. 18, that the U.S. would reach herd immunity by April. He based this on a number of calculations, including a 77% drop in cases over the previous 6 weeks. That drop, he says, is due largely because "natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing."

Epidemiologist Suzanne Judd, PhD, of the University of Alabama at Birmingham School of Public Health, said this week that it’s “possible” the country is nearing herd immunity. Her comments are based on a new Columbia University study -- which has not yet been peer-reviewed -- that suggests the actual cases in the U.S. could be 10 times more than the confirmed number of cases. If the study is accurate, nearly a third of the country has already been infected.

"I think there are unequivocal reasons to be optimistic about the pandemic," says Amesh Adalja, MD, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

Highly effective vaccines that are already protecting millions are a main reason, he says.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2021022 ... -xTdUr7ol8

[Aseahawkfan]

Nonsense. It isn't looking like that at all. If you listen to the full interview with these guys instead of the sensationalized bad news headlines they are all still very firm on reaching herd immunity this year.

Video? I don't see a video with this article. Did you watch something else with these guys?

If these variants spread and are vaccine resistance, we will see if they push lockdowns. I don't think they can afford to continue them myself, but we shall see.

At some point they could just stop counting and accept the high number of deaths. If they don't count, the public will go back to normal. The only reason people are as frightened and messed up as they are now is because keeping a counter going and broadcasting drives up the stress and fear. If they reach a point where they go, "This isn't controllable." They can stop counting and let things run with the vaccines doing what they can. People will learn to live with it as they have done every time in the past.

[RiverDog]

If these variants spread and are vaccine resistance, we will see if they push lockdowns. I don't think they can afford to continue them myself, but we shall see.

All the evidence so far indicates that the vaccines, although not as effective as they are against the original strain, are still well above the standard the CDC laid out. You have to remember that flu vaccines are only 40-60% effective. Plus they are already in the process of tweaking the vaccines to account for the variants, and we won't have to wait nearly as long for the modified vaccines as we did for the original. We are also over the hump weather-wise. As temperatures warm, people will be moving outside and the virus is less transmissible in hot and more humid conditions. By the time we get to next fall, we should have 70-75% of the country vaccinated.

Covid isn't disappearing anytime soon, but there's more optimism now than there has been since the beginning of the pandemic that the worst is behind us.

At some point they could just stop counting and accept the high number of deaths. If they don't count, the public will go back to normal. The only reason people are as frightened and messed up as they are now is because keeping a counter going and broadcasting drives up the stress and fear. If they reach a point where they go, "This isn't controllable." They can stop counting and let things run with the vaccines doing what they can. People will learn to live with it as they have done every time in the past.

I'm not following your logic. Stop counting and just accept the deaths? That almost sounds like Donald Trump saying not to test so much because it makes us look bad.

[Aseahawkfan]

All the evidence so far indicates that the vaccines, although not as effective as they are against the original strain, are still well above the standard the CDC laid out. You have to remember that flu vaccines are only 40-60% effective. Plus they are already in the process of tweaking the vaccines to account for the variants, and we won't have to wait nearly as long for the modified vaccines as we did for the original. We are also over the hump weather-wise. As temperatures warm, people will be moving outside and the virus is less transmissible in hot and more humid conditions. By the time we get to next fall, we should have 70-75% of the country vaccinated.

Covid isn't disappearing anytime soon, but there's more optimism now than there has been since the beginning of the pandemic that the worst is behind us.

We'll see how the variants do.

I'm not following your logic. Stop counting and just accept the deaths? That almost sounds like Donald Trump saying not to test so much because it makes us look bad.

The logic is easy to follow: we will have to re-open and accept the deaths at some point even if it doesn't drop substantially.

We never stop counting. So this has nothing to do with Trump. We count deaths of everything every year. That is why we know that cardiovascular disease and cancer killed more people this year than COVID. What I do mean is stop broadcasting the count and running a daily counter people can look at. It will happen whether or not COVID is under complete control, you can guarantee that. The world can no longer afford these lockdowns. They are wiping out cities, wiping out national economies, wiping out companies, and turning us into a technocracy with tech companies having more power than ever before.

People are only doing this to follow the directives of the government. Otherwise, they would not lockdown like this.

Once it has become clearly apparent that there is no way to control this and that we cannot sustain forever in a lockdown environment, they will track this more like they do the flu. You can find the numbers, but they won't broadcast them on a constant basis. We'll see how well these vaccines do, how much the numbers drop, but there is no way they can continue this situation indefinitely. If we get variants like they are listing in more than a few nations that are vaccine resistant, it will have to be accepted and manage your risk accordingly.

So we'll see what the numbers get down to, but it won't be anywhere near zero before we re-open. It may be 100,000 plus deaths or more a year for some time, especially if these variants are very resistant. But we'll re-open. We cannot afford to do otherwise.

We're losing about 42000 a month to COVID right now. What number do you expect the vaccines to get us down with variants before we say, "This isn't controllable. We need to re-open." I'd like to hear your opinion of what that number needs to reach.

[RiverDog]

The logic is easy to follow: we will have to re-open and accept the deaths at some point even if it doesn't drop substantially.

We never stop counting. So this has nothing to do with Trump. We count deaths of everything every year. That is why we know that cardiovascular disease and cancer killed more people this year than COVID. What I do mean is stop broadcasting the count and running a daily counter people can look at. It will happen whether or not COVID is under complete control, you can guarantee that. The world can no longer afford these lockdowns. They are wiping out cities, wiping out national economies, wiping out companies, and turning us into a technocracy with tech companies having more power than ever before.

The economy has not been wiped out, not even close. At 6.7%, the unemployment rate is less than half of what it was at the height of the lockdowns. It is less now than it was than when I was looking for a job in the late 70's. The stock market is experiencing record highs. The lockdowns have been loosened considerably, schools are returning to in-person learning, the infection rate has been on a steady decline for weeks, hospitalizations are way down, vaccinations are over 13% and we should be to 50% by June. The holiday season is over, we should be getting a 3rd vaccine approved this Friday, perhaps a 4th within another month or so. By the time summer is over and we have to go back indoors, we're going to be swimming in vaccine. There is considerable evidence that we're already approaching herd immunity.

Life's going to be different for awhile. We won't be able to throw away our masks, we'll have to deal with the variants and we'll undoubtedly have outbreaks and surges but nothing on the scale of 42,000 deaths per month. Vaccines are going to have to be tweaked to keep up with the variants just as they have with the flu. Outside of those challenges, I honestly don't know what you're wringing your hands about.

[RiverDog]

Here's a really good sign that the vaccines work. Since late December when nursing home residents and staff started to get vaccinated, nursing home Covid infections have declined by 80% and deaths by 65%:

According to an analysis by The New York Times, the number of new cases recorded among nursing-home residents has hit the floor. A decline of more than 80 percent was recorded from late December to early February as long-term care facilities were given priority access to the vaccines. An equally encouraging plunge in fatalities was also recorded, with deaths inside the facilities tumbling by more than 65 percent—even as COVID-19 deaths across the country hit records over the winter.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/coronavir ... ays-report

[NorthHawk]

I heard an epidemiologist say we are in a race between getting people vaccinated and the variant mutations that can survive the vaccines. The concern is it will mutate and make the vaccine ineffective.
The quicker people are vaccinated the better the chance we get ahead of this virus. The current vaccines are said to mitigate the symptoms
of the virus if not prevent it. As well, there are more therapeutics coming on board that will hopefully lessen the time to recovery for those
that contract it, but some won't be so lucky and will die before we get to that point.

[RiverDog]

I heard an epidemiologist say we are in a race between getting people vaccinated and the variant mutations that can survive the vaccines. The concern is it will mutate and make the vaccine ineffective.

I haven't heard anyone say that the variants will make the vaccines "ineffective". Less effective, yes, but they still provide protection above that which a flu shot provides, and they are very effective of preventing serious cases resulting in hospitalizations and deaths. Even the Astra-Zeneca vaccine, the one South Africa suspended because of its ability to prevent mild to moderate infections and not as good at reducing the spread of the virus, is still very effective at preventing serious cases.

The quicker people are vaccinated the better the chance we get ahead of this virus. The current vaccines are said to mitigate the symptoms of the virus if not prevent it. As well, there are more therapeutics coming on board that will hopefully lessen the time to recovery for those that contract it, but some won't be so lucky and will die before we get to that point.

You're preaching to the choir, brother. We need to get as many needles into as many arms ASAP. It's the only way we're going to get on top of this disease and keep it under control. And as much of a conservative as I am, once all our population has had the opportunity to get a vaccination, I want to see our government embark on an all out effort to get these poorer countries vaccinated. Otherwise, these variants will keep popping up and we'll be playing Whac-A-Mole for decades. It's a global pandemic that knows no borders.

It amazes me how so many people can stuff all sorts of crap into their bodies, like prescription drugs, alcoholic beverages, exotic foods, etc, not knowing exactly what it is they're consuming, yet claim to be so concerned about a vaccine because it happens to enter their bodies via a needle.

[RiverDog]

Here's more evidence of the vaccine's effectiveness. Israel leads the world in vaccination administration, so they're success in reducing illness and transmission provides a good bell weather for how it will perform in our country:

To examine the effect of widespread vaccinations among older Israelis, researchers from Weizmann Institute of Science, Tel-Aviv University and Technion analyzed Israeli Ministry of Health data on hospitalizations and PCR testing from March 2020 to February 2021.

The researchers found that infections fell among all age groups between between mid-January and mid-February, but the effect was most striking among the largely vaccinated group -- people 60 or older. In the weeks that followed a peak of COVID-19 infections in mid-January, cases among those 60 and older fell 66%, according to an extended dataset sent to ABC News by Uri Shalit, who worked on the analysis.

Additional research from Israel's largest health care provider, Clalit, is also on the horizon. Clalit, which covers more than half of all Israelis, has been conducting a study on 600,000 people who received two doses of the Pfizer vaccine. While peer-reviewed published results from the study are not yet available, data from Clalit's study are showing a 94% drop in symptomatic COVID infections among those vaccinated and that those individuals also were 92% less likely to develop severe illness than those not vaccinated.

"It shows unequivocally that Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine is extremely effective in the real world a week after the second dose, just as it was found to be in the clinical study," Ran Balicer, Clalit's chief innovation officer, said in a statement to ABC News.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/co ... d=75930083

[Aseahawkfan]

The economy has not been wiped out, not even close. At 6.7%, the unemployment rate is less than half of what it was at the height of the lockdowns. It is less now than it was than when I was looking for a job in the late 70's. The stock market is experiencing record highs. The lockdowns have been loosened considerably, schools are returning to in-person learning, the infection rate has been on a steady decline for weeks, hospitalizations are way down, vaccinations are over 13% and we should be to 50% by June. The holiday season is over, we should be getting a 3rd vaccine approved this Friday, perhaps a 4th within another month or so. By the time summer is over and we have to go back indoors, we're going to be swimming in vaccine. There is considerable evidence that we're already approaching herd immunity.

Life's going to be different for awhile. We won't be able to throw away our masks, we'll have to deal with the variants and we'll undoubtedly have outbreaks and surges but nothing on the scale of 42,000 deaths per month. Vaccines are going to have to be tweaked to keep up with the variants just as they have with the flu. Outside of those challenges, I honestly don't know what you're wringing your hands about.

The unemployment rate is not real unemployment. Not even sure why you go by that any longer. It does not include workers that have given up. The restaurant industry and entertainment are still in a precarious position. Primarily big tech is doing well and companies that were able to operate at near full capacity while shutdown including the workers who could.

The stock market is not the economy. The stock market is in a huge bubble with valuation at levels not seen since the Tech Crash back in 2001, you remember that tech crash. So you using the stock market as a sign of economic health is a bad idea because the stock market is not healthy at all.

The shortfalls in state and cities have not even fully hit yet due to the government stimulus. But don't worry, they are coming.

I'm wondering again what you think is an acceptable level of deaths per year from COVID before we get this open again? What do you think it is?

We have a lot of economic damage that hasn't even landed yet and you're acting like it's all good. It isn't all good. Not even close. We're not even close to done with this and all the debt and owed money after this thing lifts for rents and mortgages and the like. The economic pain has been held in check, but is not in gone. Just delayed.

I think even the Democrats have come to the point where they realize it can't stay shutdown any more even with the deaths. The media will become rosier and the government push even if the pandemic deaths remain high. They will simply stop broadcasting it because most Americans won't give a rip if it isn't broadcast like it is now. But I'll be watching those numbers to see how low they bring it before we have to go, "Screw it. Time to re-open. Handle your risk accordingly."

The cities right now have budget shortfalls you wouldn't believe. They are decimated in ways they did not anticipate and it's going to cost them big time as things re-open.

I think a 100,000+ deaths from COVID a year if these variants are strong will be an acceptable level as we move forward. But the bottom line is we can't stay shutdown any longer and even the Democrats realize this.

[RiverDog]

The unemployment rate is not real unemployment. Not even sure why you go by that any longer. It does not include workers that have given up.

Ok, smarty pants, here's the "real" unemployment:

More than 10 million Americans are still out of work, and millions more have stopped searching for a job. The January employment report showed that 5 million people left the work force that month.

"The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that many unemployed individuals have been misclassified as employed," Powell said. "Correcting this misclassification and counting those who have left the labor force since last February as unemployed would boost the unemployment rate to close to 10 percent in January."

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/econom ... e-n1257331

Versus the reported unemployment rate was in the 70's:

After 1974, unemployment averaged 7.9 percent and some years saw the rate reach more than 9 percent, according to the BLS.

https://bizfluent.com/info-7751089-unem ... 1970s.html

By the time you add the long term unemployment rate to the reported rate in the late 70's it far exceeds what the "real" unemployment rate is today.

The restaurant industry and entertainment are still in a precarious position. Primarily big tech is doing well and companies that were able to operate at near full capacity while shutdown including the workers who could.

The hospitality industry is going to be the last to recover and likely won't until the 3rd quarter.

The stock market is not the economy. The stock market is in a huge bubble with valuation at levels not seen since the Tech Crash back in 2001, you remember that tech crash. So you using the stock market as a sign of economic health is a bad idea because the stock market is not healthy at all.

The stock market is a huge component in the health of the economy. Companies use the sale of their stock to finance capital improvements and do the other things that keeps their business competitive. The fact that the stock market is strong is a good sign of impending economic recovery.

I'm wondering again what you think is an acceptable level of deaths per year from COVID before we get this open again? What do you think it is?

It's already getting open again. Indoor dining at restaurants, albeit it at reduced capacity, was allowed in my community last week. Schools are returning to in-person learning. But to answer your question, I can't answer it. It's like asking how many deaths are acceptable in a war.

But I do think that there should be a thorough review of the actions taken during this pandemic and see what worked and what didn't. I am not convinced that the shutdowns were all that effective. California had some of the strictest restrictions in the country yet they performed horribly, worse than Florida, which was one of the least restrictive. Some of the worst hit states, like the Dakotas, were some of the least populated.

[c_hawkbob]

Well it's finally my turn. I get mine March 9th (Moderna) as an essential worker.

They are opening up vaccinations to all 60 and over next week here so I hope to get my wife vaccinated soon as well. None too soon either as we're planning to drive to West Virginia to see my new granddaughter when she's born (due at the end of March).

[RiverDog]

Well it's finally my turn. I get mine March 9th (Moderna) as an essential worker.

They are opening up vaccinations to all 60 and over next week here so I hope to get my wife vaccinated soon as well. None too soon either as we're planning to drive to West Virginia to see my new granddaughter when she's born (due at the end of March).

Excellent! You should have some pretty good immunity built up by the time the stork lands.

I'm surprised that they are scheduling you that far out. Out here, they're not scheduling first shot doses more than 5-7 days in advance as they don't know from one week to the next how many doses they'll have and they're prioritizing those due for their 2nd dose. They must be pretty confident they're going to get their supply.

My wife and I are scheduled to get our 2nd dose of Moderna tomorrow. We were supposed to get it last Saturday but the clinic got canceled due to the weather back east.

[c_hawkbob]

There a two local pharmacies that committed today to coming to our main office (we're a municipal power company) to give us our shots. I imagine between the two of them they've worked out some sort of guarantee of availability.

[Aseahawkfan]

Ok, smarty pants, here's the "real" unemployment:

More than 10 million Americans are still out of work, and millions more have stopped searching for a job. The January employment report showed that 5 million people left the work force that month.

"The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that many unemployed individuals have been misclassified as employed," Powell said. "Correcting this misclassification and counting those who have left the labor force since last February as unemployed would boost the unemployment rate to close to 10 percent in January."

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/econom ... e-n1257331

Versus the reported unemployment rate was in the 70's:

After 1974, unemployment averaged 7.9 percent and some years saw the rate reach more than 9 percent, according to the BLS.

https://bizfluent.com/info-7751089-unem ... 1970s.html

By the time you add the long term unemployment rate to the reported rate in the late 70's it far exceeds what the "real" unemployment rate is today.

What are you even talking about? You obviously have near zero clue what is going on with the economy. You are fortunately retired, so it will have a minimal effect on you.

The hospitality industry is going to be the last to recover and likely won't until the 3rd quarter.

And the aviation industry and the cruise industry and brick and mortar retail and city real estate since many companies went to a work from home plan. The economic damage is going to be hard to track at this point until the stimulus is stopped and we see who takes the hits.

The stock market is a huge component in the health of the economy. Companies use the sale of their stock to finance capital improvements and do the other things that keeps their business competitive. The fact that the stock market is strong is a good sign of impending economic recovery.

You don't even much follow the stock market or know much about it? Companies sell stock when they initiate an IPO, dilute their stock by selling additional stock, or sell stock they have purchased on the balance sheet. Otherwise it's trading ownership parts of companies.

Did you even read on the stock market manipulation from Gamestop or AMC?

Stock market valuations are at all time highs. Stock market is not healthy. Investing is a situation where you put your money where it will gain the most. With interest rates artificially low, there is nowhere else to put your money but the stock market or real estate, which drives both investment sectors into bubble territory where they are now. This is not a healthy stock market.

It's already getting open again. Indoor dining at restaurants, albeit it at reduced capacity, was allowed in my community last week. Schools are returning to in-person learning. But to answer your question, I can't answer it. It's like asking how many deaths are acceptable in a war.

But I do think that there should be a thorough review of the actions taken during this pandemic and see what worked and what didn't. I am not convinced that the shutdowns were all that effective. California had some of the strictest restrictions in the country yet they performed horribly, worse than Florida, which was one of the least restrictive. Some of the worst hit states, like the Dakotas, were some of the least populated.

Yes. And like I said, the death rate hasn't dropped substantially, but they are re-opening. I believe even if we get a surge again, they will still re-open.

We cannot sustain with these lockdowns. It is too much economic damage. Even the Democrats and the rest of the world are starting to see that hell or high water, vaccine works or doesn't, it don't matter any more. We gotta open and go or we are heading for an economic collapse of epic proportions. No amount of debt or money printing is going to stop it if we don't reopen.

We're even adding 1.9 trillion more debt possibly next month. It's go time regardless of the circumstances. Both sides know we can't keep adding this debt. We gotta re-open.

Hopefully vaccine works, but even if it doesn't we're rolling. Economic lockdowns are unsustainable.

I knew it would reach this point and am only hoping these vaccines cut the death rate to a lower level. If we can get under a 100 k a year, it will be good. Lower than that even better.

[Aseahawkfan]

Well it's finally my turn. I get mine March 9th (Moderna) as an essential worker.

They are opening up vaccinations to all 60 and over next week here so I hope to get my wife vaccinated soon as well. None too soon either as we're planning to drive to West Virginia to see my new granddaughter when she's born (due at the end of March).

Lucky, c-bob.

I'm still waiting. I'm low on the list I guess.

[RiverDog]

Yes. And like I said, the death rate hasn't dropped substantially, but they are re-opening. I believe even if we get a surge again, they will still re-open.

The death rate hasn't come down a lot, but it has peaked and is on a downward trend. We haven't exceeded 3,000 a day since Feb. 16th. Deaths are a lagging indicator that has a direct relationship with infections and hospitalizations. Infections and hospitalizations are the precursors to deaths, and they are way down, so much so that some experts feel that we're seeing the beginning stages of herd immunity.

Hopefully vaccine works, but even if it doesn't we're rolling. Economic lockdowns are unsustainable.

The vaccines work, at least for a period of time and perhaps longer than a year. That's a fact that has been proven not only in the trials that collectively followed well over a hundred thousand people worldwide, but in nursing homes where most of the residents and staff have been vaccinated and in countries like Israel that have vaccinated a large percentage of their population. They've shown sharp declines in all metrics during January/early February when the rest of the world was in the middle of a huge spike. Johnson & Johnson just received approval for their one dose vaccine that can be stored in a refrigerator.

Additionally, there is strong evidence that those infected have natural immunity for a period of time, hopefully long enough so they can get a vaccine, plus they're learning more and more about treatment and mitigation of Covid once a person is infected.

Plus warmer weather is on its way, which means a less favorable environment for the spread of the virus and when people will be less likely to gather indoors.

I knew it would reach this point and am only hoping these vaccines cut the death rate to a lower level. If we can get under a 100 k a year, it will be good. Lower than that even better.

Although I'm hesitant to put a number on it, the worst flu season in the past decade took about 60,000, so if we keep Covid deaths under 100k in 2022, I'd say that would be a victory. But the real challenge will soon shift from this country to the poorer nations. So long as it has a host, the virus will continue to mutate and will eventually work its way back here. That's why the J&J vaccine is great news, because it's a single shot and does not require frozen storage, a real plus when you're trying to vaccinate places in the 3rd world.

You're looking at the glass half empty part while I'm seeing the glass half full portion. The economy is rebounding. Infections, hospitalizations, and deaths are all declining at a much faster rate than seasonal (holidays) variations can account for. More so than ever during this pandemic, there's real hope that we'll be back to somewhat of a normal life by this fall so long as enough people agree to take the vaccine, that we don't suddenly go ape chit, like the kids do on spring break, and if we can stay ahead of the variants.