c_hawkbob wrote:Depends on what happens with the Republican party going forward. Before it's all said and one you might be able to add the dissolution of the party as we know it and the genesis of a 3 party (all be it Big One/Little Two for a while) system.
Hawktawk wrote:It might take a little longer than 18 months RD. The lines are clearer than ever. 24 hopefuls are running as far away from trump as they can or embracing him as tight as they can.Rep Adam kinzinger is raising millions off of Trump opposition as is Nikki Haley. McConnell has made clear he wants no part of Trump. Lindsey Graham on the other hand swears the party is dead without him, that his inclusion is essential.A Republican Pac is spending millions on Fox blasting Trump and praising the Rs who stood up to him
Hawktawk wrote:Trump has been invited to Cpac to make his first public remarks as a loser former guy and is reportedly planning to throw down a marker claiming control over the party, announcing plans to primary everyone who voted against him in the impeachment and also possibly declaring himself a candidate for the presidency in 24.Hes got 110 million in his account right now. Good luck with that Trumplican party![]()
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Then to the polls whatever faith one has in them. Approximately 50 million people believe the election was stolen with zero evidence. About that amount love him even more for what happened at the capitol than before.They loved it like every other abnormal unfit thing he's done. Well over 40% would follow the trump party and leave the republican party if trump ran as an independent.Interesting another 20% would become independent leaving only around 30% of the party as actual republicans. And Trumps already proven he doesn't care about the party one bit. If he did he'd have conceded gracefully and the Rs would have the Senate.
Hawktawk wrote:Its the worst legacy ever in american history and 50 million people at least want him back. This isn't going to be over in 18 months.
RiverDog wrote:
I didn't say it was going to be 'over'. I said that we wouldn't know which direction the Republican party would be heading for at least 18 months. We could have to wait and see who the nominate for POTUS in 2024.
Hawktawk wrote:I assure you the Republicans who have developed a conscience are rooting for the legal issues you listed as much as the democrats. Scotus has cleared the way for the tax probe. Merrick Garland has made it clear he will be looking at the capitol riot and white extremism. Obviously the Georgia election interference investigation looks like a slam dunk any other politician would already be locked up for. It wouldnt even be a witch hunt for any of these prosecutors to be moving against him. Its just doing their jobs. He may also be answering questions regarding rape under oath with his immunity and his personal attorney Bill Barr gone.
NorthHawk wrote:At this point it's looking like the Republican party is about to split. However, they have a great ability to come together before an election, so it wouldn't surprise me if they
had a strong showing in both 2 and 4 years.
I read a headline yesterday saying Georgia was trying to put in legislation to stop the process of charging Trump with any election tampering or having run afoul of the State Election laws.
I didn't read the story, but it seems par for the course and it feeds into the Qanon conspiracy theorists ideas that Trump is still running things and will return to power.
NorthHawk wrote:McConnell has said he would support Trump if he's the GOP nominee in 2024. That's what Republicans do. They come together in an election regardless of their infighting. It's the lust for power by any means that drives them.
But otherwise, I agree with you about McConnell. For the life of me, I can't understand how anyone can come to the conclusion that an individual was responsible for a riot that left several people dead and gave strong indications that they can or should be prosecuted criminally could within a matter of weeks indicate that he would support him for the highest office in the land.
c_hawkbob wrote:I do think Dems are more prone to dissent within the party than republicans.
RiverDog wrote:I think it varies. Depending on how far you want to go back, the R's have had some major divisions within their party. There was a big split in the 1960's between the conservatives, led by Barry Goldwater, and the moderates, led by Nelson Rockefeller, that didn't get resolved until Reagan was able to unite them in 1980. Nixon dissed the party in '72, didn't campaign for any R candidates or mention the party name in his ads, a decision that came back to haunt him two years later. The Republicans have seen more in their fold, or at least within their philosophy, run independent Presidential campaigns, two of which had major impacts on the election: John Anderson in 1980, Ross Perot in 1992, and Pat Buchanan in 2000.
But recently, I agree that the Dems are a little more of a scattered lot. The thing of it is that the R's need to show a little more dissent if they are going to recover from these past few months. I don't think lining up behind Trump is going to get them anywhere.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Sounds like Trump may actually run in 2024. Republicans are already piling on Biden and what the Democrats are pushing. It will be interesting to see how things end up around 2023 when candidates start getting vetted. The nightmare may not be over.
I-5 wrote:I agree with most of what you say, except the last paragraph. His entire legal team quit days before the Senate trial, and I'm sure payment (or non-payment) had something to do with it. Based on the calibre of the 2 attorneys that did represent him, the quality isn't what it used to be me, and maybe recognized that he didn't really need high calibre lawyers with all his friends in the Senate.
This Jan 6 investigation is different, and there is simply no precedence that can accurately predict what will happen.
I-5 wrote:I think he would go away if a) he died, b) went to prison or c) if the party leadership soundly rejected his influence.
At this point, a is more likely than b or c, c being a near impossibility, based on the lack of evidence that spinal structures exist inside the GOP leadership.
I-5 wrote:Sorry I haven't checked in in a while...life is a bit hectic these days! I was a bit surprised (but not shocked) that Trump spoke at CPAC and STILL is pushing his stolen/rigged election claims. Let me clarify that statement; making that BIG LIE is entirely consistent with who he is, but I would think he understands there is an ongoing investigation about the roots of the Jan 6 riots, that people are going to be prosecuted, and that no one is immune from being pursued. So by continuing to push himself as the author of the BIG LIE, he is keeping himself in the crosshairs of that case. But then again, it's nothing new. Is he that dumb or that smart? I've read past reports where he was concerned about his legal liability for the riots. Thoughts anyone?
Aseahawkfan wrote:
GOP leadership responds to the people. I'm not sure if you know any Trump supporters, but the ones I know are still fully on board with Trump and in their minds Biden is the aged Dark Lord being drained by the evil witch Kamala Harris who will run against Trump in 2024 where the great savior Trump will defeat her and defeat the Democrats sending their evil, oppressive, hateful influence to an end. That is where Trump supporters are at. To them everything Democrat is evil and against America and Trump is the only guy who still stand up to and beat the Democrats.
This is what happens when you have political parties that build each other up as enemies fighting each other in some kind of culture war for the soul of America.
I'm really not sure how you reach a point of good sense when both sides view each other in such a negative light. None of this has to be this extreme, but human history has clearly shown that humans are not very sensible and tolerant as a group.
Hawktawk wrote:Gop people are in a cult. Biden Harris are downright normal in comparison. Trump is an evil man and those who follow him still and love him more after an insurrection, utterly destroying the fabric of our electoral system are given over to an evil mind. That's the reality. The hell with them. If they ever win democracy is over.
Aseahawkfan wrote:You have Sanders and his lot trying to push through 2000 constant payments. A pointless minimum wage increase that will just cause inflation then eventually need to be increased again and again and again as it fails each time to do what they want it to do and drive up prices as it increases the wage floor that competes for the same impoverished standard of living they are trying to overcome which causes everything else to inflate. This is basic economics, yet they always seem able to find an economist to say this isn't true when it is basic economics that is true every time. When you have experts able to find "scientific" evidence to back nearly every position, science no longer has the luster it once did for figuring things out. And most Americans are incapable of understanding and interpreting the studies and evidence used in a study to determine if it is a good study.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Then this voter bill looks like a Republican dream for the next election cycle. Remember Democrats were crying about states rights and now they're introducing a voting bill to take away state voting rights.
Then you have Democrats trying to push through reparations for slavery 150 plus years after it ended.
Then there is the continued attack on cops.
Sorry, both of these parties look crazy to me. I want something new soon. I'll never vote for these two parties as they are now. They are bad for America. They don't seem to have any idea of what American values are. The Democrats are more interested in turning us into Europe than being America. I don't want to be Europe. I would move there If I wanted America to be Europe.
And Trump is stupid, crazy, and vulgar. I want nothing more to do with the guy. He shouldn't be near the White House. He's a selfish, narcissistic idiot who is out of touch with reality to the point he himself believes the election was taken from him. No one who has had that type of psychotic break from reality should be president.
It's a bad time to be an American. I feel bad for this younger generation who has to grow up in this garbage time where mainly the technology is good, but the social environment is nutty.
NorthHawk wrote:Their counter argument is the min wage increase is to be phased in over years, not a big jump at once. And they also suggest that corporate welfare is always looked at favorably but helping individuals out is always opposed. The Dems have to do some real selling or counter the expenditure with taxing the ultra rich. But they have to get a short and succinct message out that can stick in people’s minds and not give
haughty explanations that ordinary people don’t have the time or desire to listen to and absorb.
Don't forget student loan forgiveness and free college. It's as if they're taking garbage sacks full of taxpayer money, walking out on stage, and "making it rain". How long can we last by just printing money whenever we have a problem that needs to be solved?
This is exactly what I was talking about when I said that the Dems could easily overplay their hand. If they shoot for the moon and use their newly acquired power to ram through their progressive agenda, they could end up re-enabling Trump or Trump-like clones.
Don't forget student loan forgiveness and free college. It's as if they're taking garbage sacks full of taxpayer money, walking out on stage, and "making it rain". How long can we last by just printing money whenever we have a problem that needs to be solved?
This is exactly what I was talking about when I said that the Dems could easily overplay their hand. If they shoot for the moon and use their newly acquired power to ram through their progressive agenda, they could end up re-enabling Trump or Trump-like clones.
I-5 wrote:Although I identify as a democrat, I'm not for 100% loan forgiveness or free college. Having lived in Canada for 5 years now, it just makes me ask, why does everything in the US always have to sound so polarized and extreme?
What I would be for is lowering or forgiving just the INTEREST rate on student loans - as opposed to forgiving the loan itself.
As for free college, I would support government providing up to 2 years of tuition assistance for those that apply and show financial need at a local community college. I myself applied for, and won, a scholarship that was created to help students with financial need (in my case it was the Evans Scholarship, founded in 1930 by amateur golf champion Chick Evans as a way to help other young golfers attend college who could not afford it otherwise). I have my high school advisor to thank for pushing me to apply, and am now a proud Evans alum who supports the program.
One thing I don't understand about fiscal 'conservatives' is why they are more than comfortable lowering federal revenue by granting gigantic tax breaks to those that realistically need it the least. To me, that's as bad as throwing money away. The only way it makes sense to me is if they themselves are benefiting from it. But If someone can neatly explain that to me how it helps with the national economy without going into Reaganomics, I would welcome it.
RiverDog wrote:I'm not against raising the minimum wage, but now is a really bad time. Business owners, especially those in the hospitality industry, one of the most affected by a hike in the minimum wage and one of, if not the most, affected industries of the pandemic, are going to suffer even more. This could cause many to go out of business permanently. Plus they're not just talking about an incidental change of 10% or 20%. They're more than doubling it, from $7.25/hr to $15.00. This could very well be counter productive, force a lot of small companies out of business.
Don't forget student loan forgiveness and free college. It's as if they're taking garbage sacks full of taxpayer money, walking out on stage, and "making it rain". How long can we last by just printing money whenever we have a problem that needs to be solved?
This is exactly what I was talking about when I said that the Dems could easily overplay their hand. If they shoot for the moon and use their newly acquired power to ram through their progressive agenda, they could end up re-enabling Trump or Trump-like clones.
I-5 wrote:Although I identify as a democrat, I'm not for 100% loan forgiveness or free college. Having lived in Canada for 5 years now, it just makes me ask, why does everything in the US always have to sound so polarized and extreme?
What I would be for is lowering or forgiving just the INTEREST rate on student loans - as opposed to forgiving the loan itself.
As for free college, I would support government providing up to 2 years of tuition assistance for those that apply and show financial need at a local community college. I myself applied for, and won, a scholarship that was created to help students with financial need (in my case it was the Evans Scholarship, founded in 1930 by amateur golf champion Chick Evans as a way to help other young golfers attend college who could not afford it otherwise). I have my high school advisor to thank for pushing me to apply, and am now a proud Evans alum who supports the program.
One thing I don't understand about fiscal 'conservatives' is why they are more than comfortable lowering federal revenue by granting gigantic tax breaks to those that realistically need it the least. To me, that's as bad as throwing money away. The only way it makes sense to me is if they themselves are benefiting from it. But If someone can neatly explain that to me how it helps with the national economy without going into Reaganomics, I would welcome it.
One of the problems I have with any kind of student loan forgiveness is that it rewards those that chose not to save or work for their education. My daughter went through 5 years of college not taking out any kind of loan, drove a 20 year old Honda, worked during the summer, didn't go to the beach on spring breaks, etc. She had help, both from her mother as well as me, but both of us had lower middle to middle class income and made major sacrifices in order to help our daughter get through college. Is anyone going to compensate us for the expenses we incurred?
Lowering taxes on corporations and on people in general helps the economy by pushing money towards more productive activities.
You know the economics equation? https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/r ... p-formula/
The government portion of the GDP equation is one of the least productive ways to spend capital because the government doesn't in general spend for profit and doesn't spend as efficiently as companies because they don't have competition and don't have the same incentives for efficient use of capital. There are times when government projects can be highly productive like building a stadium, public transportation to major job centers, or building highways. Generally government expenditures are effective when used to pick up the slack for a dead economy like The Great Depression. But a healthy economy in general is the best time for austerity as Keynes expected. Keynesian economics was of the mind that when the economy is doing very, very well, the government should restrict spending and pay off debt and the like. When the economy was going badly, then the government should step in and provide stimulus including the government engaging in infrastructure programs and the like. It should not be permanent and sustained enlargement of government as government is an inefficient user of capital with little incentive to spend capital efficiently due to a lack of competition.
Government is not a great way to grow and improve the economy. It's much better to have money in private hands being used in a productive manner to grow and improve the economy with the government stepping in during downcycles.
We don't operate in a highly efficient fashion because we're human beings. Humans as a group aren't very efficient unfortunately.
Why do you think money in the hands of the government is a good idea? The government often pays a subsistence or low wage with good benefits at least, doesn't provide much innovation on a mass scale, doesn't have much incentive to use your tax dollars well, and often spends your money in a way that is worse than how you might spend it yourself. You've seen how these politicians operate. Why do you want your money in their hands? You could probably design a more intelligent method of using a pool of collected cash for human benefit than most politicians.
I-5 wrote:By that logic, you should be in favor of Biden’s Covid relief plan...getting the money out of the gov’t’s hands and into average americans’ hands, especially households with less than $150k annual income. Right?
NorthHawk wrote:Don't confuse stock market returns with the general economy and people not having jobs.
NorthHawk wrote:The report you liked said the unemployment rate is around 6%, but officials think it's really around 10% as some have given up looking.
NorthHawk wrote:The stimulus money will help those on the lower end of the scale and the smaller businesses as people without much money will spend it locally.
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