Labor Shortage

[Aseahawkfan]

They stopped the enhanced unemployment. So what's causing the labor shortage now?

[RiverDog]

They stopped the enhanced unemployment. So what's causing the labor shortage now?

Demographics.

The decline in the birth rate that we've seen for the past 40 years is coming home to roost. Total high school enrollment peaked in 2012 at 20.4 million. In 2019 (the most recent data I could find), it was at 15.2 million, a decline of over 25% in just 7 years. Colleges have seen a more modest decline of about 5.5% in full time enrollment, although that's still a significant number measured over such a short period of time. Plus college enrollment is going to lag high school by several years.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time ... eries.html

At the same time, the number of people drawing Social Security has gone up, from 36.7 million to 45.1 million, an increase of 19% (some of that might be explained by an increase in life expectancy, but not enough to explain a 19% increase in just 7 years).

The baby boomer generation, the largest living generation in the country, is hitting the rocking chair, and there's not enough new workers entering the market to replace them.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/194 ... -security/

The pandemic pushed a lot of people that were close to retirement to hang it up earlier than they had planned, but that's not reflected in these numbers as I'm using the time period from 2012-2019.

Add that to the expected job growth over the next decade, from 153.5 million to 165.4 million, about 8%, and it's pretty clear that this labor shortage is going to be here for quite some time.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.nr0.htm

[tarlhawk]

Many things are combining to cause a negative drag on birth rates...meaningful jobs that provide family earning wages are being siphoned off by those content with minimum wage jobs. They convince themselves to put off having children till times/finances are better...but minimum wage jobs stay stagnant for the most part and credit supported wages don't really allow savings to accumulate. Life throws you a curve ball...and soon you've joined the ranks of homeless and destitute...even more likely if you live in areas frequented by natural disasters. Shame and guilt used to be natural barriers to making bad choices...but excuses and "victimization" are provided to comfort you. Being a victim does nothing for your self-esteem...replacing hope with despair...leaves little to draw inspiration from. Our education levels are embarrassing for a country with one of the fastest growing wealth producing rates during its first 200 years.

[RiverDog]

Many things are combining to cause a negative drag on birth rates...meaningful jobs that provide family earning wages are being siphoned off by those content with minimum wage jobs. They convince themselves to put off having children till times/finances are better...but minimum wage jobs stay stagnant for the most part and credit supported wages don't really allow savings to accumulate. Life throws you a curve ball...and soon you've joined the ranks of homeless and destitute...even more likely if you live in areas frequented by natural disasters. Shame and guilt used to be natural barriers to making bad choices...but excuses and "victimization" are provided to comfort you. Being a victim does nothing for your self-esteem...replacing hope with despair...leaves little to draw inspiration from. Our education levels are embarrassing for a country with one of the fastest growing wealth producing rates during its first 200 years.

I don't agree with that. The decline in the birth rate can be traced directly to the advent of the pill in 1960, which ironically, corresponds exactly to the end of the baby boomer generation (1946-1960). Until then, the vast majority of births were unplanned. Nowadays, women have a viable choice besides absence, which is one of the reasons why I'm not too sympathetic with them over the abortion issue.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/U ... birth-rate

https://www.cbc.ca/news/birth-control-p ... 0workforce.


The decline has little, if anything, to do with economic or wage conditions, in 1960 or in 2021.

However, I do agree with you about the state of our educational levels as it's one of if not my largest pet peeves. But I don't attribute the decline in the birth rate to it. Different subject.

[Hawktawk]

[quote="RiverDog"]

I Nowadays, women have a viable choice besides absence, which is one of the reasons why I'm not too sympathetic with them over the abortion issue.








Okay.
RD Im generally very close to your position on many issues but if this isn't a good old boy statement I never heard one. All you gotta do is pull em up and zip it up and they have to deal with the consequences.

I'm tired of hearing a bunch of old mostly white guys telling women what to do with their own bodies when it takes 2 to tango. This texas law is ridiculous. Most women would have no idea they are pregnant at 6 weeks which basically outlaws the procedure. I agree with the politician who said they should be legal and rare. Its an awful procedure but who are you or I to tell a woman what she's gonna do with her body for 9 months when it was a man who put her in that condition. I paid for one in 1978, a horrible decision that's haunted me and I'm sure the girl forever. I'm in no position to judge. But if the Trumplican party wants to keep losing the suburbs keep talking like good old boys.

[RiverDog]

I Nowadays, women have a viable choice besides absence, which is one of the reasons why I'm not too sympathetic with them over the abortion issue.

Okay.
RD Im generally very close to your position on many issues but if this isn't a good old boy statement I never heard one. All you gotta do is pull em up and zip it up and they have to deal with the consequences.

I'm tired of hearing a bunch of old mostly white guys telling women what to do with their own bodies when it takes 2 to tango. This texas law is ridiculous. Most women would have no idea they are pregnant at 6 weeks which basically outlaws the procedure. I agree with the politician who said they should be legal and rare. Its an awful procedure but who are you or I to tell a woman what she's gonna do with her body for 9 months when it was a man who put her in that condition. I paid for one in 1978, a horrible decision that's haunted me and I'm sure the girl forever. I'm in no position to judge. But if the Trumplican party wants to keep losing the suburbs keep talking like good old boys.

Good ole boy or not, that's my position, at least as it applies to birth control. I look at each subject individually and not with respect to predetermined liberal/conservative takes.

As you state, women claim that it's their bodies and nobody else's decision. If you carry out that philosophy out to its logical conclusion, it is up to the woman to protect themselves as it is "their body", not the man's. They're the ones that are going to bear the child, not the man. Is it fair that they have more responsibility in this matter than the man? Absolutely not. But life's not fair, either.

That doesn't mean that I don't think men have their own personal responsibility, too, but to date, there is nothing as convenient and available as a little pill as is the case with women.

The Texas law is a different matter. I happen to be against it as there are a number of flaws in it and I hope that it gets struck down at some point. All I said was that I have a limited amount of sympathy for women that refuse to protect themselves then cry foul when they are told that they can't have an abortion. We should be preaching prevention, both to men as well as women.

Back to topic. The decline in the birth rate is one of the major factors in our current labor shortage. It coincides with the advent of the birth control pill in 1960.

[Hawktawk]

There's plenty enough able bodies to fill every damn job out there. The problem in america is workforce participation is ridiculously low. People would rather scam the system, figure out a way to draw some sort of disability, work a little bit under the table for cash etc. Its called LAZINESS.

I took a pay cut from unemployment to go to work for genie 12 hour days in a factory but I'm old school. I had a chance to go on government subsidised covid layoff in March 2020 but instead I maintained 140 acres of golf course in excellent condition BY MYSELF for 2 months, 15 hours a day after day after day. I'm still working 15 hour days sometimes but its why we have the best conditioned course around despite having less than half the employees we need.For all the talk of low birth rates high school kids is all we had last year.

People are lazy, burned out by greedy unappreciative employers(this is part of the problem), addicted to handouts. I dont see it improving.

[RiverDog]

There's plenty enough able bodies to fill every damn job out there. The problem in america is workforce participation is ridiculously low. People would rather scam the system, figure out a way to draw some sort of disability, work a little bit under the table for cash etc. Its called LAZINESS.

That's simply not true. Yes, the labor participation rate has dropped, but only by 3% from 2010-2020, and that's due mainly to the retiring baby boomer generation, which started happening at the turn of the century when people that were born in 1946 turned 55 and began retiring and accelerated when they turned 62-65 a few years later.

The United States is in the process of a dramatic demographic change – the rapid aging of the population – and that change has implications for the labor force participation and unemployment figures that we see every month. Since older people have lower labor force participation than the young, as more of the population moves into older age groups the national labor force participation rate will fall.

http://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/20 ... -4-508.pdf

https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civilian ... n-rate.htm

There always has been, and always will be, a certain percentage of people that won't or can't work, the chronically unemployed. That rate tends to trend about 3-5% higher than the "official" unemployment rate, now at about 10 million people, roughly the same number as job openings. Of those "chronically unemployed", a significant number cannot work due to a variety of reasons that has nothing to do with laziness (physical disabilities, mental illness, incarceration, etc). Simply putting those "lazy people" to work, if it were possible, won't solve the problem.

https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the- ... te-3306198

[tarlhawk]

Back to topic. The decline in the birth rate is one of the major factors in our current labor shortage. It coincides with the advent of the birth control pill in 1960.

I wasn't saying financial shortcomings were the driving issue...but one of many. I just didn't finish because the little that I wrote was already depressing. As for the abortion issue...I think its pretty telling that the woman who brought the deciding lawsuit to light has sincere regrets now understanding that the concept of a new life beginning occurs much earlier than was known at the time. Sanctity of life? Where is the ethical boundary of the taking of a life? Because it occurs unseen...its not viewed as a "convenience? If a woman regrets a marriage so much that she poisons her husbands breakfast in a manner leaving no evidence but the result is the "removal of a tragic mistake" unseen by her eyes...rationalized by its lack of brutality...is this any less of a murder? Its not a fair comparison but where are the lines being drawn? ... since it affects not only the individual but our society is drawn in as a whole by its results.

[Hawktawk]

Approximately 1 in 4 families NOBODY works . And a labor force participation rate in the low 60s is a joke . And when you are talking about America a 3% decline in participation is many millions of people regardless of the reason. There are enough people of working age, able bodied to fill the jobs . They don’t want to .

[RiverDog]

Approximately 1 in 4 families NOBODY works . And a labor force participation rate in the low 60s is a joke . And when you are talking about America a 3% decline in participation is many millions of people regardless of the reason. There are enough people of working age, able bodied to fill the jobs . They don’t want to .

A 3% decline in a labor force of 153 million represents about 4.6 million people, less than half of the number of job openings, and would still leave a void of 5.5 million vacant jobs. Plus the job market is projected to expand by .7% per year, or another 12 million jobs by 2030:

Total employment is projected to grow from 153.5 million to 165.4 million over the 2020–30 decade, an increase of 11.9 million jobs, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ecopro.pdf

The labor participation rate has changed little since 1950. It's ranged from a low of 58.6% in 1954-55 to 67% in 1997-2001. In 2019, prior to the pandemic, it was at 63%, almost exactly what it was when I entered the work force in 1978.

https://www.multpl.com/us-labor-force-p ... le/by-year

Your solution, getting all the able bodied to fill all the job openings, simply isn't practical. It is what it is.

[RiverDog]

I wasn't saying financial shortcomings were the driving issue (in the decline of the birth rate)...but one of many. I just didn't finish because the little that I wrote was already depressing.

If financial shortcomings, or any other issue as far as that goes, is a factor, they're very minor ones. You'd have to show me some evidence, as I have with the coincidence of the advent of the pill and the immediate decline in births, to get me to believe they're a major influence on the birth rate.

As for the abortion issue...I think its pretty telling that the woman who brought the deciding lawsuit to light has sincere regrets now understanding that the concept of a new life beginning occurs much earlier than was known at the time. Sanctity of life? Where is the ethical boundary of the taking of a life? Because it occurs unseen...its not viewed as a "convenience? If a woman regrets a marriage so much that she poisons her husbands breakfast in a manner leaving no evidence but the result is the "removal of a tragic mistake" unseen by her eyes...rationalized by its lack of brutality...is this any less of a murder? Its not a fair comparison but where are the lines being drawn? ... since it affects not only the individual but our society is drawn in as a whole by its results.

I appreciate your opinion, but I really didn't start the thread to talk about abortion. We got sidetracked because, to my regret, I mentioned that my support of the pro choice movement has its limits due to the fact that women have a convenient and inexpensive means of protecting themselves from an unwanted pregnancy.

[tarlhawk]

Np other factors have contributed. Both parents being career minded...education level (already mentioned) decline has made a lot of professions sometimes needing to train their workforce because they aren't quite ready. Fascination with IT field has drained from other fields. Acceptance of min. wage jobs vice making use of any skills...selling yourself short...while accepting a work environment that is not demanding. Your lower skill jobs can't financially compete with unemployment as long as its extensions are being gov't subsidized. The education bill with dual party co-operation created a large base of previous taxpayers into non-taxpayers as a result of lowering poverty level to where many didn't owe taxes. This large loss of tax revenue did nothing to slow down Government's penchant for spending well beyond its budgets. Our country cannot afford to default on paying the interest of our accumulated debt. As taxes go up your spendable income goes down and many smaller businesses that rely on frequent buying move less of their product. Not enough workers coinciding with increasing costs (shipping/transport) as well as increasing labor costs for the labor you do have. Hard assets are the equipment necessary to keep a business running...decreasing them makes most small businesses default on their business loans. Soft assets are mainly your labor force...times are bad...you try to get buy with less. Lower demand while absorbing higher labor costs can eat away a small business profit margin where it can't afford to stay open (solvency).

[Aseahawkfan]

I wonder how deep and varied the labor shortage is. Is it primarily low wage jobs that don't pay well enough to live? Is it that people would rather live on the state doing no work than work for the same wage level as state benefits?

Anecdotally speaking, some of what I've noticed:

1. More young people are living at home longer not paying much rent or needing much money. A lot of parents are ok letting their children live at home to avoid COVID.

2. The app economy. A lot of people can work part time and make full time money using apps like food delivery, package delivery, or apps like Upwork which allow them to freelance more. Not sure how that reads on the employment metrics as they are working as needed.

3. The stimulus still exists in some states and unemployment benefits have been extended allowing people to continue living on moderate income.

4. The eviction moratorium. If you're not paying rent, you don't need as much money to live. You can get by on a very low income just buying food and basic items. How many people have not been paying rent allowing them to live on a very small income?

5. I think you can include the changing age demographics as a factor as well. Older parents with paid off houses dropped out of the work force.

6. I think you can add younger people have been really thrown off the COVID protocols whether living at home, mental issues, skill training disrupted, college being disrupted, and the like. I know more than a few people who had their education disrupted due to the COVID protocols either causing school to be completely shut down, extended or being demoralized by distance learning.

7. COVID protocols have made it much harder to ramp up hiring and training as well.

8. Global issues with supply chains and employment due to COVID protocols being very different depending on the country which may be affecting the ability of businesses to operate if they are trying to hire people here to make up for lost productivity at overseas offices.

9. Poor work ethic and upbringing. I'm not sure how much you can account for this, but anecdotally speaking this younger generation has been raised with some of the most ridiculous ideas about life I've ever heard of. They feel they can avoid work for reasons of anxiety, depression, and are all about their "mental health" meaning if anyone is at all hard on them such as a boss at work, they get to run home and claim they can't handle it. I've seen this in multiple families close to my own where I can't believe they raised their kids with such a poor work ethic and so little ambition or the ability to push themselves in uncomfortable circumstances. I was raised to work. My father did not allow me not to work. It was shameful not to maintain a job or live on the state when I was growing up. That is not the ethics young people have now. I ask them questions about it and they think it's just fine to be some lazy person living on state benefits. It's a big change in the mentality of Americans, very big.

I don't know if the labor or supply shortages as well as the inflation will be long-term, but at the moment we still aren't out of the water from all the COVID protocols taken. I think people are believing that simply lifting them will automatically return us to normal and it won't. It's going to take some time to sort all of this out. Maybe years.

I would be hesitant to focus too much on a single aspect of this complex puzzle. All we can say for sure is it is likely to be a bumpy ride pulling the world economy out of the COVID protocol-induced slump and we'll see what it looks like in a few years as so many of these issues get dealt with on a global scale.

I've been cash heavy for a while now as I missed the COVID bottom. I have some money in reopening plays which did well. But I'm still pretty cash heavy as I expect some bumpy economic growth as the built up savings and stimulus run out fueling the current level of consumption, The Fed tapers, and we'll see what happens with the 2022 elections. If the Dems take both Houses, higher taxes are definitely coming. A lot of catalysts for the economy are coming.

[RiverDog]

I wonder how deep and varied the labor shortage is. Is it primarily low wage jobs that don't pay well enough to live? Is it that people would rather live on the state doing no work than work for the same wage level as state benefits?

As I mentioned to Hawktalk, the percentage of workforce participation hasn't varied much since the 50's, post war when more women started entering the workforce. The percentage is relatively constant, in the low to mid 60's. There always has been, and always will be, a certain percentage of people of the type you're talking about.

I don't know if the labor or supply shortages as well as the inflation will be long-term, but at the moment we still aren't out of the water from all the COVID protocols taken. I think people are believing that simply lifting them will automatically return us to normal and it won't. It's going to take some time to sort all of this out. Maybe years.

The pandemic did cause a huge change in labor supply and distribution. People close to retirement decided to hit the rocking chair earlier than they would have. Many people didn't return to their original jobs (this really hit the hospitality industry hard). And now, some are quitting jobs because they don't want to get the shot. So yes, it's going to take years for things to level out, but as I've mentioned a number of times, we had a labor shortage BEFORE the pandemic. With the population decline continuing, it's going to be years, if not decades, before it levels out.

One good thing is that very soon, within the next few years, the baby boomer generation will have all retired. As I showed earlier, starting in 1960, there was a pronounced drop in the birth rate, so there won't be as many retirees from Gen X. But it's not going to be enough to offset the current void plus the number of jobs expected to be created during the current decade.

We're going to have to get used to having fewer services. The experience I related about getting my blood drawn will be typical. You won't be able to get a plumber to your house for weeks. Deliveries will be slower. Closed for the day signs more frequent.

[Aseahawkfan]

The pandemic did cause a huge change in labor supply and distribution. People close to retirement decided to hit the rocking chair earlier than they would have. Many people didn't return to their original jobs (this really hit the hospitality industry hard). And now, some are quitting jobs because they don't want to get the shot. So yes, it's going to take years for things to level out, but as I've mentioned a number of times, we had a labor shortage BEFORE the pandemic. With the population decline continuing, it's going to be years, if not decades, before it levels out.

One good thing is that very soon, within the next few years, the baby boomer generation will have all retired. As I showed earlier, starting in 1960, there was a pronounced drop in the birth rate, so there won't be as many retirees from Gen X. But it's not going to be enough to offset the current void plus the number of jobs expected to be created during the current decade.

We're going to have to get used to having fewer services. The experience I related about getting my blood drawn will be typical. You won't be able to get a plumber to your house for weeks. Deliveries will be slower. Closed for the day signs more frequent.

No, it won't be typical long-term. There was a labor shortage before the pandemic, but nothing like what is occurring right now. This level of a shortage is 99.9% COVID driven. Economies are normally very adaptive to change. But when those changes are artificial, widespread, and inconsistent from area to area, then you have issues like this. Right now you have places like Florida fully open for almost entire pandemic, then you have places like Hawaii who was shutdown most of the pandemic.

When America has labor shortages, we usually increase immigration. Which we haven't been able to do with the COVID protocols. You have probably noticed like myself, but medical jobs are heavily populated by immigrants. My blood is almost always drawn by a woman from The Philippines or another Asian nation. One of my friend's family is Ethiopian. They have two doctors, two nurses, and a another sister working as homecare worker.

I expect a reduction in the labor shortage using the usual methods American businesses use to cut these as soon as immigration returns to normal levels and the interviewing and training process normalizes. Seattle is still much emptier than it was before, but increasing in activity.

I wouldn't be ready to attribute this situation to anywhere near permanent because as you know most nations don't rely just on their birthrate for population replacement.

At the moment, I'm more worried about a severe economic slowdown due to the complete end of the stimulus, a political war in 2022 and 2024 altering taxes substantially, and automation killing more jobs than population issues. They are really working hard on self-driving and if they are successful, that will kill millions of good paying jobs while adding jobs former truckers likely won't be able to fill such as mechanics for hybrid electric semis that require mechanical, electrical, and software expertise to fix.

[RiverDog]

No, it won't be typical long-term. There was a labor shortage before the pandemic, but nothing like what is occurring right now. This level of a shortage is 99.9% COVID driven. Economies are normally very adaptive to change. But when those changes are artificial, widespread, and inconsistent from area to area, then you have issues like this. Right now you have places like Florida fully open for almost entire pandemic, then you have places like Hawaii who was shutdown most of the pandemic.

I don't agree. Yes, Covid turned the economy upside down, caused a huge disruption in the supply chain that we're still trying to recover from, and produced a large migration of people changing jobs. But the root cause of the labor supply problem that we had pre-pandemic still exists: Our birth rate is in decline, the baby boomers are still retiring, and the participation rate is still the same (see above discussions).

When America has labor shortages, we usually increase immigration. Which we haven't been able to do with the COVID protocols. You have probably noticed like myself, but medical jobs are heavily populated by immigrants. My blood is almost always drawn by a woman from The Philippines or another Asian nation. One of my friend's family is Ethiopian. They have two doctors, two nurses, and a another sister working as homecare worker.

Agree 100%. Over 25% of all practicing physicians in the US are foreign born. Lots of accents in doctors offices nowadays. I'm all for expanding and even recruiting workers from other nations so long as they are fully vetted and have strings attached that require them to be gamefully employed, with an emphasis on those that are educated, employable, and are young. That was my biggest beef with Trump, that he Demonized immigrants at a time when our economy needs them, played on people's paranoia and misconceptions for his own political gain.

I expect a reduction in the labor shortage using the usual methods American businesses use to cut these as soon as immigration returns to normal levels and the interviewing and training process normalizes. Seattle is still much emptier than it was before, but increasing in activity.

I wouldn't be ready to attribute this situation to anywhere near permanent because as you know most nations don't rely just on their birthrate for population replacement.

At the moment, I'm more worried about a severe economic slowdown due to the complete end of the stimulus, a political war in 2022 and 2024 altering taxes substantially, and automation killing more jobs than population issues. They are really working hard on self-driving and if they are successful, that will kill millions of good paying jobs while adding jobs former truckers likely won't be able to fill such as mechanics for hybrid electric semis that require mechanical, electrical, and software expertise to fix.

I think you are underestimating the labor crisis. Automation and a slow down of those retiring (the last baby boomer will turn 65 in 2025) will help mitigate it somewhat, but a large increase in immigration isn't politically viable. I don't see it getting better overnight. I think we're going to have to get used to reduced services and higher prices for goods.

But the good news in all of this is that it's great for the American worker. It's the best job market in my memory. There is no longer a need for a minimum wage, not when I see fast food restaurants paying $19/hr. Employers will have to increase health care and retirement benefits to retain employees. Sign on bonuses, with strings attached, are now common. But I do worry about inflation. There's no such thing as a free lunch. Someone is going to have to pay for this new found worker wealth, the American consumer.

[tarlhawk]

But the good news in all of this is that it's great for the American worker. It's the best job market in my memory. There is no longer a need for a minimum wage, not when I see fast food restaurants paying $19/hr. Employers will have to increase health care and retirement benefits to retain employees. Sign on bonuses, with strings attached, are now common. But I do worry about inflation. There's no such thing as a free lunch. Someone is going to have to pay for this new found worker wealth, the American consumer.

You realize many small businesses have marginal profit rates...this increase in labor costs (wages/benefits) is not sustainable without endless government subsidizing. Corporate farms took over many small farms during Carters refusal to sell wheat to Russia when the farming industry was experiencing a bumper crop of wheat. This is how larger companies gain leverage on small businesses and end up absorbing them...a sudden bump in labor costs.

Add to this the intention to get the wealthy to pay their fair share ...when lo and behold "they" represent the largest job producers in our country. Ask France how things turned out when their government put more and more tax burden on their wealthiest sector to fund their socialist programs. China had an entire revolution where their passionate youth broke into homes...stealing and killing the detestable wealthy. How much tax revenue is paid by our wealthiest sector? Think of tax revenue as a person's income. Spend too much outside your budget...and how do you recover what is needed for your basic needs? Credit/loans...or worse...your savings? The wealthy represent our countries "savings account"...and represent our countries wealth "potential" . Our wealth potential is what allows us to sell bonds ( our countries version of I.O.U. slips) These bonds are based on our countries ability and good faith in paying back what we owe. This is what allows us to print more money and put it into circulation.

When tax revenue is "cheated" using tax loopholes or just outright dishonesty...such a move is not getting unfair taxes back from the Govt...you are robbing your friends who work and pay taxes. Not enough people paying taxes then the direct result is higher taxes...the only power the public at large still possesses is through elections. Spending getting way out of control (No free money)...replace the political party. When our countries actual earning growth is very low (3-5%) then inflation should be double digit for the economy to correct itself...but double digit inflation is very bad politically. No problem...just change the previous calculated inflation so the end result is not quite so honest...inflation can have artificial financial pressures to keep it low...but these methods are not sustainable long term. Only real economic growth can allow "easing" of inflation to where it should be. Is there an understanding if inflation "runs away" it will rapidly devalue your own currency? The underpinnings of financial stability are not to be played with. Our decreasing birth rates are a cause of long term alarm for job market growth and worker replacement.

[RiverDog]

But the good news in all of this is that it's great for the American worker. It's the best job market in my memory. There is no longer a need for a minimum wage, not when I see fast food restaurants paying $19/hr. Employers will have to increase health care and retirement benefits to retain employees. Sign on bonuses, with strings attached, are now common. But I do worry about inflation. There's no such thing as a free lunch. Someone is going to have to pay for this new found worker wealth, the American consumer.

You realize many small businesses have marginal profit rates...this increase in labor costs (wages/benefits) is not sustainable without endless government subsidizing. Corporate farms took over many small farms during Carters refusal to sell wheat to Russia when the farming industry was experiencing a bumper crop of wheat. This is how larger companies gain leverage on small businesses and end up absorbing them...a sudden bump in labor costs.

Oh, I fully realize that. Rising labor costs are not a good thing for the economy and can be a net negative, especially for small businesses. I was speaking to just one segment, the worker. If you're graduating from high school or college this spring, you literally have the world at your feet, a much different scenario than when I graduated from college in late 1977 when unemployment was near 10% and we had double digit inflation and interest rates (Carter's "misery index").

BTW, I worked in the agriculture industry for 40 years and I can tell you that at least in this area, the Columbia Basin, there aren't many small family farms left. The vast majority of farmland in this area is owned by corporations or private farmers with tens of thousands of acres, and wages were just one factor in the small farms demise. Large farms, through their size advantage, can purchase things like seed, fertilizer, and pesticides at a reduced rate, and they have more acreage to spread their labor costs over. Processors will sign long term contracts with them so they don't have to worry about prices fluctuating. Many of the big guys have signed joint venture agreements with processors. I could count the number of small farmers on one hand.

Add to this the intention to get the wealthy to pay their fair share ...when lo and behold "they" represent the largest job producers in our country. Ask France how things turned out when their government put more and more tax burden on their wealthiest sector to fund their socialist programs. China had an entire revolution where their passionate youth broke into homes...stealing and killing the detestable wealthy. How much tax revenue is paid by our wealthiest sector? Think of tax revenue as a person's income. Spend too much outside your budget...and how do you recover what is needed for your basic needs? Credit/loans...or worse...your savings? The wealthy represent our countries "savings account"...and represent our countries wealth "potential" . Our wealth potential is what allows us to sell bonds ( our countries version of I.O.U. slips) These bonds are based on our countries ability and good faith in paying back what we owe. This is what allows us to print more money and put it into circulation.

When tax revenue is "cheated" using tax loopholes or just outright dishonesty...such a move is not getting unfair taxes back from the Govt...you are robbing your friends who work and pay taxes. Not enough people paying taxes then the direct result is higher taxes...the only power the public at large still possesses is through elections. Spending getting way out of control (No free money)...replace the political party. When our countries actual earning growth is very low (3-5%) then inflation should be double digit for the economy to correct itself...but double digit inflation is very bad politically. No problem...just change the previous calculated inflation so the end result is not quite so honest...inflation can have artificial financial pressures to keep it low...but these methods are not sustainable long term. Only real economic growth can allow "easing" of inflation to where it should be. Is there an understanding if inflation "runs away" it will rapidly devalue your own currency? The underpinnings of financial stability are not to be played with. Our decreasing birth rates are a cause of long term alarm for job market growth and worker replacement.

That's a really good take on taxation policy and its effect on the economy, much of which I agree with.

The economy is going to have to adjust to this new reality, ie the labor shortage. I do think that we're going to see inflation raise its ugly head, the Fed will have to raise interest rates in an attempt to control it, and the economy will contract as companies will have to respond by postponing plans to expand or modernize when the cost of capital increases.

[Aseahawkfan]

I don't agree. Yes, Covid turned the economy upside down, caused a huge disruption in the supply chain that we're still trying to recover from, and produced a large migration of people changing jobs. But the root cause of the labor supply problem that we had pre-pandemic still exists: Our birth rate is in decline, the baby boomers are still retiring, and the participation rate is still the same (see above discussions).

Birth rate is not a huge factor in the labor force when immigration is available. COVID has cut immigration substantially for obvious reasons.

I think you are underestimating the labor crisis. Automation and a slow down of those retiring (the last baby boomer will turn 65 in 2025) will help mitigate it somewhat, but a large increase in immigration isn't politically viable. I don't see it getting better overnight. I think we're going to have to get used to reduced services and higher prices for goods.

But the good news in all of this is that it's great for the American worker. It's the best job market in my memory. There is no longer a need for a minimum wage, not when I see fast food restaurants paying $19/hr. Employers will have to increase health care and retirement benefits to retain employees. Sign on bonuses, with strings attached, are now common. But I do worry about inflation. There's no such thing as a free lunch. Someone is going to have to pay for this new found worker wealth, the American consumer.

No, I am not. I read up on markets more than probably anyone on here.

Most of this labor shortage is driven by the COVID issues. As well as the supply chain problems are due to COVID. The chip shortages as one small example are driven by nations in SE Asia having lockdowns where we produce many of our chips. Our supply chains are so globally diverse that shut downs in another country disrupt the supply chain in America. Furniture and other items are produced abroad in places like China or Vietnam, if they shut down then it hits consumers in the United States.

I would be extremely hesitant to make any permanent attributions until the COVID19 situation is dealt with. There is no clear picture right now and won't be for some time. Any prediction you make now could change completely in 5 years.

You are making predictions based on pandemic assumptions with no clear knowledge of what the economy will do once COVID19 protocols are clear and things return to a more normal state including immigration and hiring as well as activities in cities. No one currently knows what will happen. Predictions at the moment are like trying to navigate a dingy in a hurricane. You're going to have to wait for calmer waters to see how this all works out.

[RiverDog]

No, I am not. I read up on markets more than probably anyone on here.

Most of this labor shortage is driven by the COVID issues. As well as the supply chain problems are due to COVID. The chip shortages as one small example are driven by nations in SE Asia having lockdowns where we produce many of our chips. Our supply chains are so globally diverse that shut downs in another country disrupt the supply chain in America. Furniture and other items are produced abroad in places like China or Vietnam, if they shut down then it hits consumers in the United States.

I would be extremely hesitant to make any permanent attributions until the COVID19 situation is dealt with. There is no clear picture right now and won't be for some time. Any prediction you make now could change completely in 5 years.

You are making predictions based on pandemic assumptions with no clear knowledge of what the economy will do once COVID19 protocols are clear and things return to a more normal state including immigration and hiring as well as activities in cities. No one currently knows what will happen. Predictions at the moment are like trying to navigate a dingy in a hurricane. You're going to have to wait for calmer waters to see how this all works out.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record...There was a labor shortage before the pandemic began. The pandemic made it worse but simply returning to a pre pandemic economy isn't going to solve the labor shortage.

Here's some examples, pre-pandemic: In 2019, the US shortage spiked from 10,000 to 60,800, according to the American Trucking Association. A recent Bloomberg article forecasts that the current shortage will double. The ATA forecasts a further spike to 160,000 over the next decade.

https://www.datadriveninvestor.com/2019 ... l%20double.

Oct 3, 2019 America is dealing with a prolonged electrician shortage. The need for proven craftsmen continues to rise as more electricians are required at construction and alternative energy jobsites, especially for commercial wiring projects and solar panel installations.

https://www.tradesmeninternational.com/ ... tallations.

August, 2019: America is facing an unprecedented skilled labor shortage. According to the Department of Labor, the US economy had 7.6 million unfilled jobs, but only 6.5 million people were looking for work as of January 2019 and it is more apparent than ever that our country is suffering because of it.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahchamb ... e24d31181d

From an article published Aug. 2019: “The aging of the current nursing workforce is one reason for the nursing shortage,” said Cathy Rozmus, Ph.D., vice dean for academic affairs at Cizik School of Nursing at The University of Texas Health Science Center Houston (UTHealth). “In the state of Texas, 25 percent of all nurses are age 56 or older. You’ve got a quarter of the workforce within 10 years of retirement. The statistics for Harris County are about the same.”

https://www.tmc.edu/news/2019/08/whats- ... we-fix-it/

From January 2019: Overall, construction firms are optimistic about prospects for projects in the coming year – however, a persistent worker shortage remains the top industry concern.

Seventy-nine percent of construction firms plan to expand headcount in 2019, according to a newly released survey from the Associated General Contractors of America and Sage Construction and Real Estate on Wednesday, in order to keep pace with growing project demand in the sector. That represents the third consecutive year of planned increases. However, nearly an identical number (78 percent) of construction firms say they are having a hard time filling both salaried and craft positions. That is down slightly from 83 percent at the outset of last year.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/con ... ns-in-2019

I could go on, but hopefully you get the point.

[tarlhawk]

At the risk of sounding like a broken record...There was a labor shortage before the pandemic began. The pandemic made it worse but simply returning to a pre pandemic economy isn't going to solve the labor shortage.

I agree the impact long term of our decreasing birth rate plays a heavy role...the opinion from Aseahawkfan is the short term fix...once covid is under control...even experts won't commit to a timeline...mainly because we are nowhere near "herd immunity"...and variants change the "playing field of vaccine effectiveness".

It will take a national commitment to get there...truthful education can allay the existing fears while appealing to the willingness instead of coercion for those who feel their rights are being trampled. Pandemics on a global scale is akin to warfare response. In world war II...blacken lights was seen as an aid to protecting the public at large...and people were assigned to "enforce" participation. Having the general public respond as citizens united against a common enemy...didn't trample anyone's rights by restricting when lights could be on.

Many of the job fields lacking manpower is due to licensed skills at a journeyman level...or professional training on a collegiate level. Our education system isn't producing either in sufficient quantities. England encountered this worker shortage much earlier than us and lowered their stance on immigration...just to back fill job positions of need. Terrorism has heightened the need to carefully open borders...but England had to sacrifice strict security considerations...just to keep their economy running.

Most of the mentioned jobs are done "on-site" so strict covid protocalls has opened jobs that can be performed online/telemarketed while taking from other employers job-pool resources. Construction work is not so much an education issue...but culture's widespread use of drugs make construction work too hazardous to remove that safeguard...so the pool of useable work resources has been on a decline. Nurses have a very demanding skill tree which educates its licensed job opportunities on a very strict collegiate standard...I have known many nursing candidates fail their final exam which combines all their necessary skills in a very demanding display.

[RiverDog]

At the risk of sounding like a broken record...There was a labor shortage before the pandemic began. The pandemic made it worse but simply returning to a pre pandemic economy isn't going to solve the labor shortage.

I agree the impact long term of our decreasing birth rate plays a heavy role...the opinion from Aseahawkfan is the short term fix...once covid is under control...even experts won't commit to a timeline...mainly because we are nowhere near "herd immunity"...and variants change the "playing field of vaccine effectiveness".

The other part of the equation besides the birth rate is on the other side of the age spectrum. As in the link I posted above about the average age of nurses in TX, there's a lot of occupations where a significant number are reaching retirement age. The average age of a licensed electrician in the United States is 55 years old. Same for plumbers. For truck drivers, it's 47 years old. In general, the average age of workers, in particular blue collar workers, is way out of balance, that there are more retiring than being backfilled by new, younger workers.

It will take a national commitment to get there...truthful education can allay the existing fears while appealing to the willingness instead of coercion for those who feel their rights are being trampled. Pandemics on a global scale is akin to warfare response. In world war II...blacken lights was seen as an aid to protecting the public at large...and people were assigned to "enforce" participation. Having the general public respond as citizens united against a common enemy...didn't trample anyone's rights by restricting when lights could be on.

Agree about the pandemic being a global problem, and ASF has a good point that although the pandemic may be under control here, it's raging in other areas around the globe and that many countries still have travel restrictions that continues to affect the world economy. It's going to take several years for the supply chain to get back to normal.

Our education system isn't producing either in sufficient quantities.

That's because there is a decline in the number of students in US schools. High school enrollment in the US peaked in 2005 at 15.9 million. In 2019, that number had dropped to 15.3 million, a 4% decrease. The birth rate chickens are coming home to roost.

England encountered this worker shortage much earlier than us and lowered their stance on immigration...just to back fill job positions of need. Terrorism has heightened the need to carefully open borders...but England had to sacrifice strict security considerations...just to keep their economy running.

There's plenty of people that want to come to this country and work. We could be sending recruiters into central and South America, the Caribbean, etc and let them find educated, law abiding young people to come to the US, but it's not in the cards politically. There is still very deep racial and ethnic prejudice that prevents a significant portion of our population from accepting anyone that doesn't look and talk like they do. That was my single, biggest beef with DJT, that his rhetoric brought these traits to the surface and made them seem normal.

Kids, in particular native born kids, are not entering blue collar jobs, which is why those industries are the first to experience labor shortages. It's a cultural issue. Kids have been raised on electronics and don't like getting dirt under their fingernails even if it pays a lot more. They feel it's beneath them to swing a hammer or twist a screw driver. When I was growing up, I learned to repair flat tires on my bicycle, helped the old man change oil in the car, had jobs in high school like coopering box cars. Times have changed.

[c_hawkbob]

This thread is typical of these political threads; everyone take a position and defend it, o the point of overstating the case. I think if we take about a third to half scale of everyone's stated opinion herein and stir them up in a pot we have a reasonably accurate assessment. Let me spice the pot with my favorite ingredient, top heavy pay scales and a stagnant minimum wage.

I think a lot of minimum wage workers that pre-pandemic were in the rut of working two or three minimum wage jobs discovered a suitable alternative (whether it be an on-line, at home thing or a higher paying thing on the upswing we are in) and simply won't be returning to those jobs. People that are paying better are getting applicants.

[RiverDog]

I think a lot of minimum wage workers that pre-pandemic were in the rut of working two or three minimum wage jobs discovered a suitable alternative (whether it be an on-line, at home thing or a higher paying thing on the upswing we are in) and simply won't be returning to those jobs. People that are paying better are getting applicants.

The minimum wage has little to do with the overall labor shortage. There simply aren't enough working age Americans to fill the available positions. Increasing the minimum wage might coax a few to come out from under their blue tarps, but isn't going to produce near enough workers.

The shortage is causing employers to lower their standards. Many of them, such as my former employer, will not hire convicted felons and demand that all applicants pass a drug screen. Those standards are being lowered or dropped altogether.

It's something that we're just going to have to get used to. I won't be able to stop by my favorite watering hole after pheasant hunting on a Wednesday afternoon and get a burger and brew because they don't have enough employees to open.

[c_hawkbob]

The minimum wage has little to do with the overall labor shortage.

So you keep saying, and I'll keep disagreeing.

[Aseahawkfan]

At the risk of sounding like a broken record...There was a labor shortage before the pandemic began. The pandemic made it worse but simply returning to a pre pandemic economy isn't going to solve the labor shortage.

Here's some examples, pre-pandemic: In 2019, the US shortage spiked from 10,000 to 60,800, according to the American Trucking Association. A recent Bloomberg article forecasts that the current shortage will double. The ATA forecasts a further spike to 160,000 over the next decade.

https://www.datadriveninvestor.com/2019 ... l%20double.

Oct 3, 2019 America is dealing with a prolonged electrician shortage. The need for proven craftsmen continues to rise as more electricians are required at construction and alternative energy jobsites, especially for commercial wiring projects and solar panel installations.

https://www.tradesmeninternational.com/ ... tallations.

August, 2019: America is facing an unprecedented skilled labor shortage. According to the Department of Labor, the US economy had 7.6 million unfilled jobs, but only 6.5 million people were looking for work as of January 2019 and it is more apparent than ever that our country is suffering because of it.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahchamb ... e24d31181d

From an article published Aug. 2019: “The aging of the current nursing workforce is one reason for the nursing shortage,” said Cathy Rozmus, Ph.D., vice dean for academic affairs at Cizik School of Nursing at The University of Texas Health Science Center Houston (UTHealth). “In the state of Texas, 25 percent of all nurses are age 56 or older. You’ve got a quarter of the workforce within 10 years of retirement. The statistics for Harris County are about the same.”

https://www.tmc.edu/news/2019/08/whats- ... we-fix-it/

From January 2019: Overall, construction firms are optimistic about prospects for projects in the coming year – however, a persistent worker shortage remains the top industry concern.

Seventy-nine percent of construction firms plan to expand headcount in 2019, according to a newly released survey from the Associated General Contractors of America and Sage Construction and Real Estate on Wednesday, in order to keep pace with growing project demand in the sector. That represents the third consecutive year of planned increases. However, nearly an identical number (78 percent) of construction firms say they are having a hard time filling both salaried and craft positions. That is down slightly from 83 percent at the outset of last year.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/con ... ns-in-2019

I could go on, but hopefully you get the point.

No, I don't get the point. I read too much on markets and don't focus on one area too much. I know there is a lot more going on than your focus on a generic labor shortage. The markets are far too diverse for your analysis.

Posting articles specifically written to support your viewpoint are by their very nature biased, narrow, and lacking. You find a specific issue you want to bang the drum on, then bang it without any regard for other concerns like automation which will will kill millions of jobs if successful creating a labor surplus. I wonder if you even know they are creating robotic medical assistants capable of taking over the jobs of nursing assistants and some nursing duties in hospitals and how far self-driving has come which will decimate the trucking and transportation workers causing hundreds of thousands of job losses. That doesn't even take into account the AI technology they are developing to write software, engage in stock portfolio management, and manage power and infrastructure with fewer human workers. You're trying to predict the future focusing on one idea and one metric, which some companies are specifically working to counter. Then there is warehouse automation which will probably carry over to stocking shelves in grocery stores and the like. It's going to be a very different world in the future where labor will not be as necessary.

Then there is the fact labor shortage was not this bad before the pandemic. It will not be this bad once the pandemic problems are resolved. Making predictions on the future during a once a hundred year event is ridiculous. If you can't see that, not sure what to tell you other than you'll be wrong. No one has visibility on what happens after the pandemic issues are fixed because they still exist. Until these COVID issues are resolved, I wouldn't buy into what you're selling if you paid me out of your pocket because any information given right now is pure speculation backed by statistics skewed by COVID protocols.

I posted above some of the issues you should look at if you want a real look at what's going on in the world. I'm telling you as a person who reads a lot on economics and the market no one has any idea how this is going to play out. Not the smartest Nobel prize winning economist, the smartest investors, or anyone. We're in uncharted territories as far as the economy goes and likely will be for about another year or two on a global scale. There are a tremendous number of factors in play some of what I listed, some I did not like the excessive money printing, the huge debt increase, the decimation of cities and urban areas, and the upcoming 2022 elections that may shift Congress enough to cause substantial tax increases as well as what countries like China are doing economically.

Lots of balls in play. I listen to all these folks making predictions and the metrics supporting their predictions change moment to moment because there is still so much going on worldwide that can't be accounted for. Get back to me in 2023 or 2024. Then we'll see how things look.

[Aseahawkfan]

The minimum wage has little to do with the overall labor shortage. There simply aren't enough working age Americans to fill the available positions. Increasing the minimum wage might coax a few to come out from under their blue tarps, but isn't going to produce near enough workers.

The shortage is causing employers to lower their standards. Many of them, such as my former employer, will not hire convicted felons and demand that all applicants pass a drug screen. Those standards are being lowered or dropped altogether.

It's something that we're just going to have to get used to. I won't be able to stop by my favorite watering hole after pheasant hunting on a Wednesday afternoon and get a burger and brew because they don't have enough employees to open.

Wages and benefits are rising to try to draw workers back into the workforce. You're right. It's not working super well. But we also have enough people to work. We're not short of people as you posit. That is why the speculation right now is that there is something else going on other than population size and wages. There are apparently a lot of people quitting their jobs right now too. Just up and quitting for a variety of reasons. No one is quite sure why the labor market is reacting so abnormally right now. The above reasons that I posted are some of the reasons posited beyond population, wages, and immigration limitations.

We'll see how it goes as more of these COVID measures wind down, savings run out, and people have to return to work to survive as well as needing to pay rent again. Paying your bills and living has always been the primary driver of people working. It will kick in at some point again.

Sorting this mess out has been perplexing. It's made investing difficult and dangerous unless you just don't care about losing a lot of money if something suddenly changes that causes a major market disruption. The whole market is weird.

We printed an additional 1/3rd of the U.S. dollars in circulation in the last year. We injected unprecedented stimulus into the market. The stock market took the biggest drop in history followed by the biggest recovery in history. The Fed bank engaged in stimulus measures never done before like buying bonds on a level never seen before. It's been a crazy few years. No one is sure how this is going to play out and a lot of people are making predictions. And the only thing that will tell us anything for sure is time.

[RiverDog]

Wages and benefits are rising to try to draw workers back into the workforce. You're right. It's not working super well. But we also have enough people to work. We're not short of people as you posit. That is why the speculation right now is that there is something else going on other than population size and wages. There are apparently a lot of people quitting their jobs right now too. Just up and quitting for a variety of reasons. No one is quite sure why the labor market is reacting so abnormally right now. The above reasons that I posted are some of the reasons posited beyond population, wages, and immigration limitations.

You're trying to squeeze blood out of a turnip. The workers just plain aren't there.

In February of 2020, just prior to the pandemic, the labor participation rate was at 63.7%. Today, it's 2% lower at 61.7%. If we assume that everyone that was working before the pandemic returns to work, that's 3.3 million jobs that would be filled, only about 1/3 of the current openings. Plus we have to recognize that there's a lot of those 3.3 million that once the pandemic hit, decided to retire early, closed their businesses, cashed in their chips and hit the rocking chair by living off the proceeds of the sale of their assets. They aren't coming back to work.

There are currently over 10 million job openings and it's projected to increase by another 10 million by 2030. We'll have to do something drastic, like eliminating early retirement, currently age 62-66, and/or move full retirement back to 68 or 69, if we want to increase labor participation. Politically, that would go over like a fart in church. Same with increasing immigration. Too many rednecks that hate immigrants.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ecopro.pdf

https://www.multpl.com/us-labor-force-p ... le/by-year

There's dozens of container ships off the coast of California that can't unload. Why? We don't have enough workers to unload them and not enough truck drivers to move the cargo away from the ports. Same thing with the high gas prices. We don't have enough truck drivers to move gas from the refineries to the distributors.

The nation’s trucking industry is facing significant headwinds in dealing with a massive shortage of drivers — just one of the factors contributing to a supply chain bottleneck that is driving up prices and threatening to put a crimp in Christmas shopping.

The trucker shortage, which the industry has warned of since at least the 1980s, has reached critical mass with the help of COVID-19 shutdowns that triggered widespread layoffs and temporarily closed state DMVs and truck driver training schools that serve as the new-driver pipeline.

“Currently, 20% to 25% of all truck drivers are still missing,” said Mike Kucharski, head of JKC Trucking, an Illinois-based company that specializes in shipping food. “JKC has trucks that desperately need drivers behind the wheel that are parked.”

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... -trucking/

I understand that the pandemic is still very much a factor, but I personally don't think that this labor shortage is going to go away until our economy adjusts away from labor intensive products and services, a process that will take years if not decades. And say hello to inflation. My wife is getting a 5.9% raise on her Social Security check for 2022. That's the highest SS increase since 1982, and they say that it won't even begin to keep up with inflation:

The U.S. Social Security Administration said Wednesday that it will boost the cost-of-living adjustment for benefits in 2022 by 5.9% -- the most in nearly four decades, as rising inflation puts a big dent in the purchasing power of those on fixed incomes.

[tarlhawk]

Minimum wage ...like many things in recent life...has grown into something it was never intended to be...a family raising wage earning job. It used to be for recent high school graduates or elderly people unable to sustain work on a full-time (40 hrs) basis. As an introduction to what work means as far as responsibilities and commitment...you could work part-time or full time. As "cheap" labor it was win-win for small businesses whose profit margins are quite small compared to larger businesses. Unless the economy is humming and your "product" has decent demand your labor costs can be the deciding factor if you can "stay afloat". Add increased wages/providing mandated healthcare coverage...reality check : the youth (felt no need for healthcare) and the elderly (already likely enrolled in healthcare) was a financial burden not needed by a minimum wage employer. As work ethic/education level declined...the easy qualifications (able to stand on your feet 8 hours/willingness to follow limited direction) soon attracted people it wasn't meant for...the only deterrent was the low wage. "I need two of these jobs just to keep junior in diapers!" No you need ambition to better yourself and get a job to make your young family life stable.

Why are we trying to attract more people into a job that at most was meant to be supplemental income? ...no way up...management/supervisors barely make salary equivalent to a decent jobs entry payscale. For small businesses this mess has closed businesses established years ago...lose-lose has replaced win-win for small businesses...some of this has gone unnoticed due to covid and government subsidies putting the labor cost increases at bay as far as their effect. Covid has begun to shift job preferment to working from home...not an eagerness to return to uncertain times at work. Others who would have never experienced unemployment being thrust on them...have tasted an extended period of "free money" and the temptation to "drag your feet getting back to work" can overcome a weaker work ethic. Government money is in the form of tax revenue to support its spending habits...once this "free money" dries up...its not an act of magic that restores it...its an increase in taxes. Covid just exposed out of control spending...political I.O.U.'s to draw in your votes...to overcome a bully...no other sitting president has been hounded from inauguration till four years later on election day...only an opinion.

[RiverDog]

Minimum wage ...like many things in recent life...has grown into something it was never intended to be...a family raising wage earning job. It used to be for recent high school graduates or elderly people unable to sustain work on a full-time (40 hrs) basis. As an introduction to what work means as far as responsibilities and commitment...you could work part-time or full time. As "cheap" labor it was win-win for small businesses whose profit margins are quite small compared to larger businesses. Unless the economy is humming and your "product" has decent demand your labor costs can be the deciding factor if you can "stay afloat". Add increased wages/providing mandated healthcare coverage...reality check : the youth (felt no need for healthcare) and the elderly (already likely enrolled in healthcare) was a financial burden not needed by a minimum wage employer. As work ethic/education level declined...the easy qualifications (able to stand on your feet 8 hours/willingness to follow limited direction) soon attracted people it wasn't meant for...the only deterrent was the low wage. "I need two of these jobs just to keep junior in diapers!" No you need ambition to better yourself and get a job to make your young family life stable.

Why are we trying to attract more people into a job that at most was meant to be supplemental income? ...no way up...management/supervisors barely make salary equivalent to a decent jobs entry payscale. For small businesses this mess has closed businesses established years ago...lose-lose has replaced win-win for small businesses...some of this has gone unnoticed due to covid and government subsidies putting the labor cost increases at bay as far as their effect. Covid has begun to shift job preferment to working from home...not an eagerness to return to uncertain times at work. Others who would have never experienced unemployment being thrust on them...have tasted an extended period of "free money" and the temptation to "drag your feet getting back to work" can overcome a weaker work ethic. Government money is in the form of tax revenue to support its spending habits...once this "free money" dries up...its not an act of magic that restores it...its an increase in taxes. Covid just exposed out of control spending...political I.O.U.'s to draw in your votes...to overcome a bully...no other sitting president has been hounded from inauguration till four years later on election day...only an opinion.

I've never been too sympathetic to proposals to increase the minimum wage. I do agree that the federal minimum wage is too low and should be indexed as it is for SS, but most states and even some cities have imposed their own minimum wage, some well above the federal mandate. It was never intended to be a living wage. It's entry level work, a foot in the door to a better paying position. If you're a functioning adult and the best you can do is a minimum wage job, there's something else wrong with you that an extra hundred bucks a month or so ain't gonna to fix. I'd rather see us drill down to the roots cause of poverty and address them: Lack of education, substance abuse, mental health, the same problems that are the primary causes of homelessness. Poverty is much more a social problem than it is an economic one.

The other thing I don't like about the minimum wage is that it does not incorporate other monetary benefits like health care, retirement benefits, and paid vacation. Those are things that should be part of the equation to evaluate whether or not an employee is being paid fairly. I would like to see employers receive some sort of incentives that would motivate them to increase fringe benefits rather than simply concentrating on an hourly wage.

But in this economy, the minimum wage is almost irrelevant. Due to the pandemic, wages are rising faster than they have since the 1980's, and as I've demonstrated in earlier posts, there's going to be a continued shortage of labor for the foreseeable future. Given the current labor shortage, employers that only offer minimum wage jobs will find themselves unable to attract any workers other than those seeking temporary or supplemental work. For a worker, it's the best job market in my memory, and will continue to be strong for at least the next 5 years until all of my fellow baby boomers have retired.

[Hawktawk]

This thread is typical of these political threads; everyone take a position and defend it, o the point of overstating the case. I think if we take about a third to half scale of everyone's stated opinion herein and stir them up in a pot we have a reasonably accurate assessment. Let me spice the pot with my favorite ingredient, top heavy pay scales and a stagnant minimum wage.

I think a lot of minimum wage workers that pre-pandemic were in the rut of working two or three minimum wage jobs discovered a suitable alternative (whether it be an on-line, at home thing or a higher paying thing on the upswing we are in) and simply won't be returning to those jobs. People that are paying better are getting applicants.

Yeah this right here^^^^^^Top heavy compensation which has ballooned obscenely since the 60s and a stagnant minimum wage (which stagnates the whole pay scale). I find it sort of humorous all these people who were gonna go bankrupt if the minimum wage goes up suddenly are willing to pay well above minimum to get help. Its funny in a way to see these sweat shop owners scream bloody murder about 300 extra dollars to the people they have stiffed their entire time in business. Meanwhile the Fed made a commitment to invest AT LEAST120 BILLION PER MONTH into the markets during the pandemic which is over 2 TRILLION DOLLARS into the markets. Then we learn the people involved in administering the biggest welfare for the rich's program ever were trading in the stocks they were boosting. Now they are giving the signal they will be pulling back on this stimulus well after the 300 for the little guy went away.

I agree with the take about people moving up from service work into better jobs. I think more of these jobs will open up as the boomers retire. And speaking of labor shortages they will be made far worse as the average boomer with the old school work ethic and skill goes away. I'm 62 and gonna have to do something for a while longer but at my age wracked with arthritis I can outwork any 3 of the employees we have. During Covid at age 60 I maintained 140 acres of golf BY MYSELF in excellent condition during the 2 month shutdown. plenty of 15 hour days riding multiple machines etc . Fortunately it wasn't July and August but point being when I leave they aren't replacing me with 1 guy.

I always hear "anyone's replaceable" Yeah you can throw a body at anything but having spent 36 years in the biz I have never met anyone like me, anyone who could replace me in this industry. There's lots of old school boomers like me that will go away. I cant wait. How about the people screaming about labor shortages and 300 dollars want us to erase the starving Haitians on the border who want to work? Frankly America could solve a lot of problems if they would come out of their god damn corners and think.

[c_hawkbob]

Frankly America could solve a lot of problems if they would come out of their god damn corners and think

Quoted for emphasis.

[RiverDog]

Top heavy compensation which has ballooned obscenely since the 60s and a stagnant minimum wage (which stagnates the whole pay scale). I find it sort of humorous all these people who were gonna go bankrupt if the minimum wage goes up suddenly are willing to pay well above minimum to get help. Its funny in a way to see these sweat shop owners scream bloody murder about 300 extra dollars to the people they have stiffed their entire time in business. Meanwhile the Fed made a commitment to invest AT LEAST120 BILLION PER MONTH into the markets during the pandemic which is over 2 TRILLION DOLLARS into the markets. Then we learn the people involved in administering the biggest welfare for the rich's program ever were trading in the stocks they were boosting. Now they are giving the signal they will be pulling back on this stimulus well after the 300 for the little guy went away.

You're repeating a battle cry for all those engaged in class warfare that want social justice. The minimum wage is not going to create workers. Oh, sure, there may be a few people that will be coaxed out of retirement or to take a 2nd job if we dangle a few more dollars in front of them, but not in anywhere near the numbers required to fill the 10 million jobs that are currently open. And what's worse, raising the minimum wage isn't going to fix our most serious problems, that is, we need skilled workers, not hamburger flippers. We need electricians and truck drivers, craftsmen and plumbers, occupations that pay well above minimum wage.

I agree with the take about people moving up from service work into better jobs. I think more of these jobs will open up as the boomers retire. And speaking of labor shortages they will be made far worse as the average boomer with the old school work ethic and skill goes away. I'm 62 and gonna have to do something for a while longer but at my age wracked with arthritis I can outwork any 3 of the employees we have. During Covid at age 60 I maintained 140 acres of golf BY MYSELF in excellent condition during the 2 month shutdown. plenty of 15 hour days riding multiple machines etc . Fortunately it wasn't July and August but point being when I leave they aren't replacing me with 1 guy.

I'm not sure how valid the criticism of the younger generations is. There's so many jobs open that they don't have to do jobs that are more physically demanding. But even if your observation is a true reflection, it's not what's causing the overall labor shortage. Factor out the flood of baby boomers retiring beginning in 2000 when those born in 1945 turned 55 the labor participation rate has remained very consistent over the past 4 or 5 decades.

I always hear "anyone's replaceable" Yeah you can throw a body at anything but having spent 36 years in the biz I have never met anyone like me, anyone who could replace me in this industry. There's lots of old school boomers like me that will go away. I cant wait. How about the people screaming about labor shortages and 300 dollars want us to erase the starving Haitians on the border who want to work? Frankly America could solve a lot of problems if they would come out of their god damn corners and think.

You're preaching to the choir regarding the Haitians that want to work. As long as they're well vetted and prove themselves by staying out of trouble, I'll welcome them with open arms. But the political reality is that fixing the labor shortage by importing more immigrants isn't acceptable to a significant part of the population.

We need to take a look at a couple of things that might increase our labor pool. Have these well intentioned child labor laws gone too far? Why not let minors work more than 8 hours on a Saturday or Sunday? Why can't they work more than 3 hours on a weekday? And on the other end of the spectrum, would it add more workers if we were to liberalize the rules on how much a person can earn while on Social Security? Is there anything we can do that would motivate people to work a few years beyond their planned retirement date?

I'm not necessarily advocating any of those options, just noting that's the stuff we need to be talking about to fix the shortage. Those are the things that will add more workers to the pool.

[Aseahawkfan]

Now there is speculation vaccine mandates are harming the job market as vaccine hesitancy is highest amongst low wage workers, especially among minority groups that are heavily represented in those jobs. There are also people moving to other states to avoid vaccine mandates like Texas and Florida where the governors are resisting mandates. Apparently vaccine mandates are causing workers to avoid going back to work or avoid businesses and states where vaccine mandates are required. Interesting. Add in another possible factor in the labor market issues.

[RiverDog]

Now there is speculation vaccine mandates are harming the job market as vaccine hesitancy is highest amongst low wage workers, especially among minority groups that are heavily represented in those jobs. There are also people moving to other states to avoid vaccine mandates like Texas and Florida where the governors are resisting mandates. Apparently vaccine mandates are causing workers to avoid going back to work or avoid businesses and states where vaccine mandates are required. Interesting. Add in another possible factor in the labor market issues.

I hadn't heard that, but it doesn't surprise me. Obviously that's a short term issue regarding the labor shortage.

My former employer, which employs a lot of minorities, has offered a $150 bonus for workers that get vaccinated and hardly anyone took them up on it. Once a few people started refusing vaccines, defying them became a sort of badge of honor, almost ritualistic amongst peer groups. People are sensitive about their identity and in the case of vaccines, it's a symbol of their race, heritage, etc to defy them. I'd venture to bet that most don't know the first thing about vaccines, their possible side effects, etc. They just resist them because it's the thing to do, like getting a tattoo, anything to identify them as being one of the group.

Of course, minority refusal is just one of the factors in the hesitancy equation.

[Hawktawk]

Well screw them. Ill keep working then. Any super spreader who wont do the American thing can starve for all I care. Build robots then.

[c_hawkbob]

Not buying the vaccine mandate effect on the labor shortage as anything other than a talking point from the political right. Virtually every entity effected by the mandates is reporting 98% or better vaccination rates. They're just separating some of the chaff.

[RiverDog]

Not buying the vaccine mandate effect on the labor shortage as anything other than a talking point from the political right. Virtually every entity effected by the mandates is reporting 98% or better vaccination rates. They're just separating some of the chaff.

The mandates are posing a big problem for businesses and institutions simply because many, including hospitals, are already struggling with filling positions and adding mandates to the equation complicates their problem, but I agree that it probably has a minimal effect on the overall labor supply.

However, I will take issue with the claim that "virtually every entity affected by the mandate is reporting 98% vaccination rates". Although they are somewhat effective, they're not anywhere near 98%. I just got through reading this week old article on the status of our armed forces:

For instance, 90% of the active-duty Navy is fully vaccinated, whereas just 72% of the Marine Corps is, the data show, even though both services share a Nov. 28 deadline. In the Air Force, more than 60,000 personnel have just three weeks to meet the Defense Department’s most ambitious deadline.

https://www.stripes.com/covid/2021-10-1 ... 91964.html

In Chicago, where homicides are on the rise, the head of their police union is urging his members to defy the mandate, which expires today, claiming that half of the officers will not show up for duty if they try to enforce it:

Chicago Police Union president John Catanzara has urged officers to ignore the midnight deadline to report their vaccine status to the city. If the city tries to punish officers for not complying, only half will show up to patrol city streets, Catanzara predicted.

On Friday she (Chicago mayor) took matters a step further, announcing the city’s Law Department has filed legal action seeking court intervention against the FOP and Catanzara “for engaging in, supporting, and encouraging a work stoppage or strike.” The union is not allowed to strike.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/ch ... uxbndlbing

There's even talk of calling in the National Guard to take the place of police officers that refuse the vaccine, and mind you, this is a liberal big city in a deep blue state. Although I fully support them, the mandates are having a significant effect on businesses and institutions. They're far more than just a talking point for the political right.

[tarlhawk]

National Guard is good for putting down civil unrest...but the many encounters/situations our police handle?...hoping that kind of move is temporary at best. Seattle's mayor put in her budget for counsel review and the counsel is already saying they want less than half for the police. Seattles Chief of police said that would severely hurt training new officers to replace those who have already left the force...but hey..Seattle is looking for new business to come to the city...hope you feel safe. I guess the city counsel would think even warehouse security would deter our growing crime rates.