Ukraine

[Aseahawkfan]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Alexander_Litvinenko

Remember when Putin ordered the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko with radioactive poison.

The West has been letting this thug Putin have his way for twenty plus years and we have made him a worse and worse monster with our weakness.

[I-5]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Alexander_Litvinenko

Remember when Putin ordered the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko with radioactive poison.

The West has been letting this thug Putin have his way for twenty plus years and we have made him a worse and worse monster with our weakness.

Yes, we all remember the poisonings, to Litvinenko, and more recently Navalny. Putin is a thug who deserves to go straight to hell. We just can't get into an all out war, because the N-bomb means there won't be a world left to talk about, including this forum. Riv is right, these sanctions are already taking effect, and the world has never been this united against a single aggressor. How much longer can Putin hide the bodies of sons of russians who didn't even know they were going to war? His lies are simply not sustainable, and I predict it will come crashing down sooner than later. I hope a russian takes him out.

[RiverDog]

The chances of Putin backing down to sanctions from the West is so low as to be infinitesimal.

These aren't your garden variety sanctions. As a matter of fact, we shouldn't even be referring to them as such because they bear little resemblance to anything that has been initiated since the term came into use. These are economic counter measures that are equivalent in nature to a naval blockade or the mining of a harbor. They are as effective as bombing a power plant or blowing up a dam.

The only problem with them is that they take quite a long time to work when compared to bombing a power plant or blowing up a dam. It's going to take some time for Russian citizens to come to the realization that this war is costing them their livelihoods and even more time to organize an effort and come up with the courage to overturn their regime. Their effect may not come in time to avert major destruction and loss of life.

[Aseahawkfan]

These aren't your garden variety sanctions. As a matter of fact, we shouldn't even be referring to them as such because they bear little resemblance to anything that has been initiated since the term came into use. These are economic counter measures that are equivalent in nature to a naval blockade or the mining of a harbor. They are as effective as bombing a power plant or blowing up a dam.

The only problem with them is that they take quite a long time to work when compared to bombing a power plant or blowing up a dam. It's going to take some time for Russian citizens to come to the realization that this war is costing them their livelihoods and even more time to organize an effort and come up with the courage to overturn their regime. Their effect may not come in time to avert major destruction and loss of life.

I will post this again: The chances of Putin backing down to sanctions from the West is so low as to be infinitesimal.

You do not understand or accept who Vladimir Putin is at all. You just don't get this guy. You probably never will until he does something so heinous even people like you will wake up this guy doesn't care about sanctions or words or anything of the kind. He is Joseph Stalin reborn. Stalin cared about nothing but power and violence.

This PoS knows the entire world has suffered immense loss of life from a global pandemic and to a vile human being like Putin this is an "opportunity" to take more of what he wants while the world is weak reeling from a pandemic. You seem to think a man like this cares about sanctions or his people or who hasn't prepared for possible revolution. He doesn't care.

Good lord how many fricking times do people like you have to keep trying to convince yourself that men like Putin give a rat's ass as they keep doing what they're doing until we have to kill them. Saddam sanctions? Didn't care. Iran sanctions? Didn't care. Still developing nuclear weapons. Kim Jong Un? Sanctions? Just launched a missile test. Doesn't care.

Why do you keep wanting to give these guys more time to build even greater power and the cost of life to take them down become even greater. Why can't you just see Putin is an evil man who won't be stopped by sanctions and won't look weak towards The West.

[I-5]

I will post this again: The chances of Putin backing down to sanctions from the West is so low as to be infinitesimal.

You do not understand or accept who Vladimir Putin is at all. You just don't get this guy. You probably never will until he does something so heinous even people like you will wake up this guy doesn't care about sanctions or words or anything of the kind. He is Joseph Stalin reborn. Stalin cared about nothing but power and violence.

This PoS knows the entire world has suffered immense loss of life from a global pandemic and to a vile human being like Putin this is an "opportunity" to take more of what he wants while the world is weak reeling from a pandemic. You seem to think a man like this cares about sanctions or his people or who hasn't prepared for possible revolution. He doesn't care.

Good lord how many fricking times do people like you have to keep trying to convince yourself that men like Putin give a rat's ass as they keep doing what they're doing until we have to kill them. Saddam sanctions? Didn't care. Iran sanctions? Didn't care. Still developing nuclear weapons. Kim Jong Un? Sanctions? Just launched a missile test. Doesn't care.

Why do you keep wanting to give these guys more time to build even greater power and the cost of life to take them down become even greater. Why can't you just see Putin is an evil man who won't be stopped by sanctions and won't look weak towards The West.

Seems like you're suggesting an all out nuclear war that will end civilization as we know it.

[Aseahawkfan]

They're shelling a nuclear plant in Ukraine.

This is more stressful than the pandemic. I did not feel this level of stress like I do with this Ukraine craziness. This Putin is insane.

[Aseahawkfan]

Seems like you're suggesting an all out nuclear war that will end civilization as we know it.

What are you suggesting? Wait until Putin and China build an alternate system to the United States dollar as the global reserve currency. Undermine sanctions from Western Powers. Force further division between countries forcing them to choose sides as Western economic power is diminished and we are further divided. Establish more allies in other nations that start to see Russia and China as gaining power over the United States and their Western allies. Russia starts further taking nations around them. China takes Taiwan and the world's chip supply or at least establishes their chip supply with Taiwan assets able to supply chips to Russia, China, and anyone that chooses to stand with them.

Basically, let dictatorial nations like China and Russia build more power over time, further weaken the United States and Western nations, and build an entire economic network to challenge the United States and Western power while oppressing and intimidating more nations. Then they show up at your doorstep. Then you do something?

Let me ask quite simply and this will decide where we both stand: Would you accept Russian or Chinese rule in your home nation to avoid a nuclear war?

The answer for me is clearly no. I would not. That is a world not worth living in to me. I will not bow down to Russian or Chinese dictators.

To me continuing to wait until they build even strong militaries and greater nuclear assets is much like we have done in the past when the first World Wars occurred except this one will be nuclear, biological, and chemical with China and Russia stronger than they've ever been. How long do you keep building monsters as the West is doing given we funded Russia's attack on Ukraine buying Russian oil and gas and then look in surprise when those monsters attack?

We handed Iran a 100 billion dollars under Obama and Biden's stupid arrangement for 20 years of not trying to build nuclear weapons.

We funded China's enormous economic growth.

We and Europe bought gas and oil from Russia.

We set up Saddam Hussein and sold him weapons as our puppet.

We helped build the Al Qaeda network and funded Osama bin Laden to fight the Russians in Afghanistan leading to the rise of the Taliban and extremist Islam in Afghanistan.

How long do we keep allowing the United States government and the West to build these monsters that end up biting us at some point and threatening world freedom? How long do you wait for these people to keep expanding before you have your back against the wall?

If FDR had just had the political will and balls to end Stalin after World War 2, we wouldn't even be in this situation right now.

Look at Germany and Japan now, model global nations. We broken them and forced change in those nations. We have to break Russia like we did Germany or Japan or these snake's like Putin will keep rising.

My only hope is the Russian and Chinese people grow weary of these scum and end them for us, but it never seems to happen.

[RiverDog]

I will post this again: The chances of Putin backing down to sanctions from the West is so low as to be infinitesimal.

You do not understand or accept who Vladimir Putin is at all. You just don't get this guy. You probably never will until he does something so heinous even people like you will wake up this guy doesn't care about sanctions or words or anything of the kind. He is Joseph Stalin reborn. Stalin cared about nothing but power and violence.

And apparently you don't understand or accept what it must be like to live in a country with a scumbag like Putin running it.

You just got through lecturing me in another thread how, without hardly any evidence, that it was almost a slam dunk that Epstein was killed due to a conspiracy, yet you seem to reject the notion that these sanctions and other measures that have isolated Russia from most of the rest of the world could result in a coup d'état, assassination, or forcible removal of Vladimir Putin. You seem to think that all 140 million Russians are nothing but a bunch of Stepford Wifes, taking their orders directly from Putin and would willingly march off a cliff for him.

[Aseahawkfan]

And apparently you don't understand or accept what it must be like to live in a country with a scumbag like Putin running it.

You just got through lecturing me in another thread how, without hardly any evidence, that it was almost a slam dunk that Epstein was killed due to a conspiracy, yet you seem to reject the notion that these sanctions and other measures that have isolated Russia from most of the rest of the world could result in a coup d'état, assassination, or forcible removal of Vladimir Putin. You seem to think that all 140 million Russians are nothing but a bunch of Stepford Wifes, taking their orders directly from Putin and would willingly march off a cliff for him.

No, I do clearly understand what it is to live under a person like Putin or Saddam or Kim Jong Un. You don't seem to understand it. They don't care about the 140 million Russians. They will murder all of them to hold power.

They surround themselves with absolutely loyal people who share their viewpoint and will murder others who oppose it. It is the same tyrannical mentality that caused Germany to become The Third Reich when the vast majority of Germans likely did not want to go to war. It is why the United States had to kill Saddam Hussein even as he held power after we sanctioned his nation into garbage, while the surrounding Iraqi could do nothing to stop him because he had his Republican Guard absolutely loyal to him and willing to murder anyone who even thought about assassinating him. It's literally an old book on tyranny played out again and again and again that people like yourself and I5 don't seem to accept.

I'm not sure why you don't accept it given you have watched it most of your life and read about it in history books multiple times. Tyrants don't put themselves in position to be assassinated by their own people. Russia is one of those nations where that is especially true.

We live in a nation that successfully revolted against a relatively benevolent monarchy known as Great Britain. Say what you want about Great Britain and their kings, they were nowhere near as bad as anyone like Hitler or the like. There was always a sense of right and wrong in Great Britain. They had a certain morality that people raised in former British colonies like America, Canada, and Australia take for granted.

Russia is no such nation. They have hundreds if not thousands of years of being ruled by strongmen where he who is able to inflict the greatest violence holds power. Even their nobility before the Tsar was murdered (the last tyrant to be killed in Russia by the Communists) were some of the worst in history.

Putin is cut from a different cloth. These sad ass attempts using sanctions to stop him are laughable to Putin. The man has ruled modern Russia for 22 years. He has taken over multiple nations around him back into Russia's power. He has been opposed and had massive protests against him. He's still alive and still in power even after stripping Russian oligarchs of their billions and any power they possessed.

So you telling me 140 million Russians can somehow stop him when they had their chance with him and with Stalin, the I must say provide your evidence they can stop him. Tell me who can take Putin down in his countries. You have a list of opposition names? As far as I know he's killed or imprisoned all his opposition in Russia. He's already shown he's willing to use military force to keep his own people in line. There is no military ethic like there is in America to not use the military within the nation like Trump wanted to do in America. That rule does not apply.

The only rule in Russia is Putin's rule. If you oppose him, he will kill or imprison you.

So telling me I don't know what it's like to live under a scumbag like Putin, it sounds more like you don't want to accept what it is like to live under a scumbag like Putin or Saddam or the Iranian regime or Xi in China where 1.4 billion Chinese let's the Communist Party do what they want and supposed billionaires like Jack Ma, the owner of Ali Baba, has to go into hiding for questioning Xi and the Communist Party.

I know what men like Putin and Xi and Saddam do to maintain power when they are vastly outnumbered. It's why I think the United States and the West will have to finally grow a pair and kill him themselves because he will murder his own people to prevent them from troubling him. My only hope for a long-term fix is if Putin dies and is replaced by someone that less interested in the Russian Empire and more interested in the Russian people. But how can I even be confident that will happen if Putin is hailed a hero for standing up to the United States and The West and taking Ukraine back into the Russian Empire with sanctions being The West's only response?

[tarlhawk]

Seen a few posts on other sites questioning the use of assassination to take out another country's leader. Just as sanctioning a "no-fly" zone...an assassination attempt would be an act of war and all that it implies. Found this 2002 article on the Hoover Institute website...

From Hoover Digest of Hoover Institute website:
Is Assassination an Option?
by Bruce Berkowitz
Wednesday, January 30, 2002

Is It Legal?

You might be surprised to learn that there are no international laws banning assassination. The closest thing to a prohibition is the 1973 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Crimes Against Internationally Protected Persons, Including Diplomatic Agents. This treaty (which the United States signed) bans attacks against heads of state while they conduct formal functions, heads of government while they travel abroad, and diplomats while they perform their duties.

The Protected Persons Convention was intended to ensure that governments could function and negotiate even during war. Without it, countries might start a war (or get drawn into one) and then find themselves unable to stop because there was no leader at home to make the decision to do so and because their representatives were getting picked off on their way to cease-fire negotiations.
Another treaty that some might construe as an assassination ban is the Hague Convention on the "laws and customs" of war. The Hague Convention states that "the right of belligerents to adopt means of injuring the enemy is not unlimited." (This was a bold statement in 1907, when the convention was signed.)

The Hague Convention tried to draw a sharp line between combatants and noncombatants; combatants were entitled to the convention’s protections but were also obliged to obey its rules. For example, the Hague Convention tried to distinguish combatants by requiring them to wear a "fixed distinctive emblem recognizable at a distance." Wear the emblem while fighting, and you are entitled to be treated as a POW if captured; fail to follow the dress code, and you might be hanged as a mere bandit.

Alas, maintaining this definition of a "combatant" proved a losing battle throughout the twentieth century. Guerrilla warfare transformed civilians into soldiers. Strategic bombing transformed civilians into targets. Headquarters staff, defense ministers, and civilian commanders in chief today are all more likely to wear suits than uniforms. Teenage paramilitary soldiers in Liberia are lucky to have a pair of Levis to go along with their AK-47s, let alone fatigues or insignia. That is why, practically speaking, a "combatant" today is anyone who is part of a military chain of command.

The third international agreement that is relevant to assassination is the Charter of the United Nations, which allows countries to use military force in the name of self-defense. If a country can justify a war as "defensive," it can kill any person in the enemy’s military chain of command that it can shoot, bomb, burn, or otherwise eliminate. And it can use whatever "ruses of war" it needs to get the job done. As a result, the main legal constraints on sanctioned assassination other than domestic law, which makes murder a crime in almost all countries, are rules that nations impose on themselves.

The U.S. government adopted such a ban in 1976, when President Ford—responding to the scandal that resulted when the press revealed CIA involvement in several assassinations—issued Executive Order 11905. This order prohibited what it called "political assassination" and essentially reaffirmed an often-overlooked ban that Director of Central Intelligence Richard Helms had adopted for the CIA four years earlier. Jimmy Carter reaffirmed the ban in 1978 with his own Executive Order 12036. Ronald Reagan went even further in 1981; his Executive Order 12333 banned assassination in toto. This ban on assassination remains in effect today.

...we should be clear in our own minds that, when the United States tries to assassinate someone, we are going to war—with all the risks and costs that war brings. These include, for example, diplomatic consequences, the danger of escalation, the threat of retaliation against our own leaders, the threat of retaliation against American civilians, and so on.

Because assassination is an act of war, such activities should always be considered a military operation. American leaders need to resist the temptation to use intelligence organizations for this mission. Intelligence organizations are outside the military chain of command. Intelligence operatives are not expected to obey the rules of war and thus are not protected by those rules.

[Aseahawkfan]

Seen a few posts on other sites questioning the use of assassination to take out another country's leader. Just as sanctioning a "no-fly" zone...an assassination attempt would be an act of war and all that it implies. Found this 2002 article on the Hoover Institute website...

From Hoover Digest of Hoover Institute website:
Is Assassination an Option?
by Bruce Berkowitz
Wednesday, January 30, 2002

Is It Legal?

You might be surprised to learn that there are no international laws banning assassination. The closest thing to a prohibition is the 1973 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Crimes Against Internationally Protected Persons, Including Diplomatic Agents. This treaty (which the United States signed) bans attacks against heads of state while they conduct formal functions, heads of government while they travel abroad, and diplomats while they perform their duties.

The Protected Persons Convention was intended to ensure that governments could function and negotiate even during war. Without it, countries might start a war (or get drawn into one) and then find themselves unable to stop because there was no leader at home to make the decision to do so and because their representatives were getting picked off on their way to cease-fire negotiations.
Another treaty that some might construe as an assassination ban is the Hague Convention on the "laws and customs" of war. The Hague Convention states that "the right of belligerents to adopt means of injuring the enemy is not unlimited." (This was a bold statement in 1907, when the convention was signed.)

The Hague Convention tried to draw a sharp line between combatants and noncombatants; combatants were entitled to the convention’s protections but were also obliged to obey its rules. For example, the Hague Convention tried to distinguish combatants by requiring them to wear a "fixed distinctive emblem recognizable at a distance." Wear the emblem while fighting, and you are entitled to be treated as a POW if captured; fail to follow the dress code, and you might be hanged as a mere bandit.

Alas, maintaining this definition of a "combatant" proved a losing battle throughout the twentieth century. Guerrilla warfare transformed civilians into soldiers. Strategic bombing transformed civilians into targets. Headquarters staff, defense ministers, and civilian commanders in chief today are all more likely to wear suits than uniforms. Teenage paramilitary soldiers in Liberia are lucky to have a pair of Levis to go along with their AK-47s, let alone fatigues or insignia. That is why, practically speaking, a "combatant" today is anyone who is part of a military chain of command.

The third international agreement that is relevant to assassination is the Charter of the United Nations, which allows countries to use military force in the name of self-defense. If a country can justify a war as "defensive," it can kill any person in the enemy’s military chain of command that it can shoot, bomb, burn, or otherwise eliminate. And it can use whatever "ruses of war" it needs to get the job done. As a result, the main legal constraints on sanctioned assassination other than domestic law, which makes murder a crime in almost all countries, are rules that nations impose on themselves.

The U.S. government adopted such a ban in 1976, when President Ford—responding to the scandal that resulted when the press revealed CIA involvement in several assassinations—issued Executive Order 11905. This order prohibited what it called "political assassination" and essentially reaffirmed an often-overlooked ban that Director of Central Intelligence Richard Helms had adopted for the CIA four years earlier. Jimmy Carter reaffirmed the ban in 1978 with his own Executive Order 12036. Ronald Reagan went even further in 1981; his Executive Order 12333 banned assassination in toto. This ban on assassination remains in effect today.

...we should be clear in our own minds that, when the United States tries to assassinate someone, we are going to war—with all the risks and costs that war brings. These include, for example, diplomatic consequences, the danger of escalation, the threat of retaliation against our own leaders, the threat of retaliation against American civilians, and so on.

Because assassination is an act of war, such activities should always be considered a military operation. American leaders need to resist the temptation to use intelligence organizations for this mission. Intelligence organizations are outside the military chain of command. Intelligence operatives are not expected to obey the rules of war and thus are not protected by those rules.

Some of these folks think the Russian people will assassinate Putin, not us. Everyone clearly knows if we kill a foreign leader, we are basically starting a war. The assassination talk is some false hope that there is some Russian group with enough power to assassinate Putin amongst the 140 million Russian people or to raise enough of a revolutionary army amongst the Russian people to oppose Putin even though they have tried multiples times to unseat Putin in the last 20 years. None of it worked. Anyone that has opposed Putin has ended up dead or in jail.

[I-5]

asf if you say assassination by the US (which I have never suggested) is tantamount to starting a war, how is is that any different than you suggesting we declare war on Russia?

[RiverDog]

Because assassination is an act of war, such activities should always be considered a military operation. American leaders need to resist the temptation to use intelligence organizations for this mission. Intelligence organizations are outside the military chain of command. Intelligence operatives are not expected to obey the rules of war and thus are not protected by those rules.

Presumably if we were to engage in an attempt to assassinate Putin, we would limit our participation to intelligence dissemination and logistical support. Russian nationals would be the ones that would do the dirty work, giving us plausible deniability.

And as far as what constitutes an act of war, the sanctions we've imposed might qualify, too. As I mentioned above, we're engaging in an economic war that in some cases may be causing irreparable harm without using bullets or bombs. It's the same reason why Japan attacked us at Pearl Harbor as we had imposed an embargo on oil and other materials that Japan needed to support their war effort in China and SE Asia.

[Hawktawk]

Lindsey Graham blurted out “ someone needs to take this guy out !” Yesterday . What a fool . You don’t say it . I fear the sanctions may be so crippling ,the whole world against him he may just say WTF. Putin thinks his weapons are so far superior to ours , their training is so much more active scenarios that he can win a nuclear war . Doesn’t matter If it’s true . But I think we need to start thinking about how far down to drag Russia and the overwhelming majority of good people there who are protesting . Putin is invoking martial law. Prominent critic Gary Kasparov said yesterday Putin will attack a nato country to see our response . They shelled the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. It is helter skelter on steroids .

[RiverDog]

Lindsey Graham blurted out “ someone needs to take this guy out !” Yesterday . What a fool . You don’t say it . I fear the sanctions may be so crippling ,the whole world against him he may just say WTF. Putin thinks his weapons are so far superior to ours , their training is so much more active scenarios that he can win a nuclear war . Doesn’t matter If it’s true . But I think we need to start thinking about how far down to drag Russia and the overwhelming majority of good people there who are protesting . Putin is invoking martial law. Prominent critic Gary Kasparov said yesterday Putin will attack a nato country to see our response . They shelled the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. It is helter skelter on steroids .

I can find a lot of things not to like about Lindsey Graham, but that statement isn't one of them. Putin damn well knows that there are a lot of people that would like to take him out, so it isn't a shock to hear it from an American politician. Indeed, a fellow Russian has put a million dollar bounty on Putin's head, so why is it a problem for Graham to say something like that? It's not going cause Putin to behave any differently.

There's obviously a risk that the sanctions could be so crippling that they could actually lead us into a war, but I don't know what our other options are. Do we just sit by and let him do what he pleases? We have to make him pay some sort of a price, and this one seems to be the one with the least risk of triggering WW3. If not sanctions, then what is your solution?

If he does attack a NATO country, then all bets are off. We'd be required to take military action. Although no one knows for sure, I doubt that he'd do it as he knows full well where the line in the sand is drawn. This guy is a veteran of the Cold War, so he knows how the game is played.

[I-5]

I have to disagree, Riv. Even if every american (every responsible world citizen even) is thinking the same thing, I was thinking what a fool for a US Senator to say it. It doesn't help the situation at all, just gives Putin yet another reason to double down. Putin has always been cunning and calculated, but he resembles a cornered and wounded animal at the moment, and that's not a good thing when he has access to the world's second largest nuclear stockpile. I wish I had the answers, but he is so unpredictable that no one knows. I agree that we can't do nothing, but what can we do?

[RiverDog]

I have to disagree, Riv. Even if every american (every responsible world citizen even) is thinking the same thing, I was thinking what a fool for a US Senator to say it. It doesn't help the situation at all, just gives Putin yet another reason to double down. Putin has always been cunning and calculated, but he resembles a cornered and wounded animal at the moment, and that's not a good thing when he has access to the world's second largest nuclear stockpile. I wish I had the answers, but he is so unpredictable that no one knows. I agree that we can't do nothing, but what can we do?

I agree that Graham's statement doesn't help matters, but it doesn't hurt them, either. An off the cuff statement from a foreign politician an ocean away that isn't even in the same political party as the Commander in Chief isn't going to change Putin's behavior one way or another. If that's all it would take to push him over the edge, then we're in deep trouble anyway.

I agree with your last two sentences. Outside of military action, such as establishing a no fly zone over Ukraine, I don't know what else can be done that isn't already being done. There's not a lot of cards left to play.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I read the post comparing this to WW2 Germany, but perhaps WW2 Japan is a better parallel (aside from Putin being the closest thing to a Hitler or Stalin since then). Japan felt that they had the right to dominate Asia and saw no reason why they shouldn’t have their turn at colonialism like the Western powers. Soon after they start flexing, they get loud disapproval from the West and then economic sanctions that freeze their assets in western countries and cut off supplies of scrap metal and oil. So Japan, a proud nation with somewhat recent victories over larger nations (China 1890s; Russia 1908), has the great powers condemning them for exactly the same path those nations embarked on previously and then cutting off their primary means of making war materials and movement. So do they back off and subordinate themselves to the West with the attendant loss of face, or do they give the West the finger and take what they believe is theirs by right? We know how that turned out.

Now that he’s stuck is foot in it, is Putin willing to suffer a loss of face? If not, what will he do? Is there a way to diffuse this without Putin losing his mind? It’s a tough situation all around, and, more and more, my money is on him not being willing to back down and humble himself to the West much like Japan was unwilling to do.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I’d sooner bet on an internal coup or a complete collapse of his armed forces than Putin backing down.

[RiverDog]

I read the post comparing this to WW2 Germany, but perhaps WW2 Japan is a better parallel (aside from Putin being the closest thing to a Hitler or Stalin since then). Japan felt that they had the right to dominate Asia and saw no reason why they shouldn’t have their turn at colonialism like the Western powers. Soon after they start flexing, they get loud disapproval from the West and then economic sanctions that freeze their assets in western countries and cut off supplies of scrap metal and oil. So Japan, a proud nation with somewhat recent victories over larger nations (China 1890s; Russia 1908), has the great powers condemning them for exactly the same path those nations embarked on previously and then cutting off their primary means of making war materials and movement. So do they back off and subordinate themselves to the West with the attendant loss of face, or do they give the West the finger and take what they believe is theirs by right? We know how that turned out.

Now that he’s stuck is foot in it, is Putin willing to suffer a loss of face? If not, what will he do? Is there a way to diffuse this without Putin losing his mind? It’s a tough situation all around, and, more and more, my money is on him not being willing to back down and humble himself to the West much like Japan was unwilling to do.

I agree with you that Japan is a better analogy. They did not want to dominate the world, they just wanted their corner of it and wanted the US and European nations to get out of the Pacific theatre. IMO Putin sees Ukraine and the other former Soviet states to be culturally the same as Russia in much the same manner that Japan saw China and SE Asia as being culturally and racially separate from the Europeans and Americans.

You're asking the $64,000 questions. Similar to the strategy that we used with Nikita Khrushchev, we need to provide Putin with an out in the event that he realizes that he's overreached.

[I-5]

I read the post comparing this to WW2 Germany, but perhaps WW2 Japan is a better parallel (aside from Putin being the closest thing to a Hitler or Stalin since then). Japan felt that they had the right to dominate Asia and saw no reason why they shouldn’t have their turn at colonialism like the Western powers. Soon after they start flexing, they get loud disapproval from the West and then economic sanctions that freeze their assets in western countries and cut off supplies of scrap metal and oil. So Japan, a proud nation with somewhat recent victories over larger nations (China 1890s; Russia 1908), has the great powers condemning them for exactly the same path those nations embarked on previously and then cutting off their primary means of making war materials and movement. So do they back off and subordinate themselves to the West with the attendant loss of face, or do they give the West the finger and take what they believe is theirs by right? We know how that turned out.

Now that he’s stuck is foot in it, is Putin willing to suffer a loss of face? If not, what will he do? Is there a way to diffuse this without Putin losing his mind? It’s a tough situation all around, and, more and more, my money is on him not being willing to back down and humble himself to the West much like Japan was unwilling to do.

Great post, and I agree about the Japan example. For sure, there is a fair amount of hypocrisy whenever a superpower has issues with an emerging superpower doing the exact same thing. It will always be that way. I am biased, but I fall on the US version of imperialism because we have a more democratic culture that holds up the individual. But I know that very statement is open to giant debate lol.

I also think that Putin isn't going to back down, just like a cornered dog isn't going to back down. Riv, I wasn't implying that Lindsay Graham's flippant comment was going to push Putin over the edge, but just give him yet another reason to stick his head in the sand and stick to his terrible ideas.

[RiverDog]

Great post, and I agree about the Japan example. For sure, there is a fair amount of hypocrisy whenever a superpower has issues with an emerging superpower doing the exact same thing. It will always be that way. I am biased, but I fall on the US version of imperialism because we have a more democratic culture that holds up the individual. But I know that very statement is open to giant debate lol.

I also think that Putin isn't going to back down, just like a cornered dog isn't going to back down. Riv, I wasn't implying that Lindsay Graham's flippant comment was going to push Putin over the edge, but just give him yet another reason to stick his head in the sand and stick to his terrible ideas.

I, too, think that it's unlikely that he backs down, but I do think that he stops with Ukraine, especially after seeing his army's performance.

As far as Graham's comment goes, Putin already has plenty of reasons to "stick his head in the sand". Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Putin doesn't even know who Lindsey Graham is or is aware of his comment. If he's going to be worried about someone saying he should be taken out, he has a lot more reason to worry about the Russian guy that put a $1M bounty on his head than he does some random politician on the other side of the pond.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I read where they are arresting protesters and passing a law allowing for prosecuting the act of spreading misinformation about the “special operations” and handing out 15 year sentences in jail. Not surprising, but they are clearly seeking to stamp out any and all opposition to the invasion among their citizens. Unpopularity on the home front among both the regular joes and janes and the elites may help end this.

[RiverDog]

I read where they are arresting protesters and passing a law allowing for prosecuting the act of spreading misinformation about the “special operations” and handing out 15 year sentences in jail. Not surprising, but they are clearly seeking to stamp out any and all opposition to the invasion among their citizens. Unpopularity on the home front among both the regular joes and janes and the elites may help end this.

That's why there are so many native born Russians living in this country, such as NHL hockey players, that are walking on eggshells as many of them have family back in the motherland that they are worried about. It has to be a very stressful time for those folks.

[RiverDog]

China is starting to distance themselves from Russia. Today they came out with the following statement:

China attaches great importance to nuclear safety and is gravely concerned about the safety and security situation of nuclear facilities in Ukraine," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told a Friday press conference.

"We will continue to closely monitor the developments of the situation, and call on relevant parties to keep calm and exercise restraint, prevent further escalation of the situation and ensure the safety of relevant nuclear facilities."

https://news.yahoo.com/china-broke-sile ... 40130.html

Then there was this:

Two China-based development banks have paused relations with Russia and Belarus as it continues to wage war against Ukraine, the Financial Times reported Thursday. According to the report, the decision of the Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to pause investments with Russia and Belarus may put tension on the relationship between Russia and China.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/2- ... JXESGJaWIU

[Aseahawkfan]

I read where they are arresting protesters and passing a law allowing for prosecuting the act of spreading misinformation about the “special operations” and handing out 15 year sentences in jail. Not surprising, but they are clearly seeking to stamp out any and all opposition to the invasion among their citizens. Unpopularity on the home front among both the regular joes and janes and the elites may help end this.

Putin is documented to have killed or imprisoned anyone that has seriously opposed him whether the more dangerous oligarchs and generals or even protesters in the streets. It is the way of dictators to violently destroy your opposition without regard for your people or morality. Putin has been particularly good at this. That's why I don't expect him to be assassinated by his inner circle which has been carefully vetted. Anyone close to him knows to fail to kill him is death, not just for themselves but possibly for their family and associates or anyone Putin thinks might challenge him if left alive. It's how these dictators operate. Putin has been one of the better ones over his rise. If Putin appears weak to The West, that would lose him more support with the people he cares about appearing strong to than to back down due to sanctions. He absolutely cannot appear weak in the face of Western sanctions and admonition.

Putin needs to take Ukraine at this point. The cost is already high and a failure would make the cost even higher for him as he will have had his nation sanctioned and spent Russian lives on a failed mission that makes Russia look weak. There is no going back now. There is no end game for Putin but success in Ukraine.

Nothing is going to stop him at this point but the strong military intervention of the West which leads to possible nuclear war.

Zelensky must die. And a Ukrainian puppet government must be installed that answers to Putin. That is the only acceptable outcome to Putin or he looks weak and he cannot afford to look weak.

[RiverDog]

Boeing and Airbus have quit sending parts to Russian airlines. The Dow Jones has removed Russian stocks from its indexes. Microsoft and Samsung joined Apple, Meta, AT&T, and other tech and electronics companies in halting sales of new services and equipment. BP joined Exxon-Mobil and Shell in divesting themselves of Russian energy companies. A number of Russian banks have been removed from the SWIFT financial system and will now have to use old school faxes or telephones to communicate with foreign banks like those in China. Even sporting organizations, like FIFA, the governing body of international soccer, and the IOC has banned Russian athletes and teams from participating in sanctioned events. The list of private companies ending business and social ties with Russia is virtually endless.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

Now Putin has stated the economic sanctions are akin to a declaration of war. He really believes he should be able to do what he wants.

[RiverDog]

Now Putin has stated the economic sanctions are akin to a declaration of war. He really believes he should be able to do what he wants.

And I agree with him, at least when they are as coordinated and widespread as these are. They are no less an act of war than a naval blockade. Most of the time, countries can dodge sanctions. We've had sanctions on Cuba for 60 years. The problem for Putin is that even if our governments wanted to end them, there's enough private businesses that have refused to do business with him that it wouldn't solve his problem if we lifted them.

There hasn't been an international issue that has galvanized western response since the end of WW2. France is well known for not marching lock step with the rest of Europe, but even they have come to the party. Just yesterday, they seized one of Putin's buddies' super yacht. Germany has done an about face on their policy of not sending arms to countries at war and are contemplating a drastic increase in defense spending. Finland and Sweden are discussing joining NATO. Even the Chinese have offered only luke warm support.

This could be a blessing in disguise as NATO might come out of this stronger than ever as it could be a wake up call to these Euro weenies that have relied on the United States to bail their asses out of two world wars and defended them against the Russians for the past 75 years.

[Aseahawkfan]

Now Putin has stated the economic sanctions are akin to a declaration of war. He really believes he should be able to do what he wants.

I'm honestly starting to think he expected Trump to be in office and win. Trump would have dragged his feet sanctioning Russia and not been interested in motivating our allies to stand against Putin. Hell, he might have spent his time creating chaos and attacking N.A.T.O. rather than move to stop Putin. Trump's failure to take the White House was likely one of events that did not work well for Putin as I think he had the plan to invade Ukraine during Donald's 2nd Term knowing he would have had a president who could not gain consensus amongst our allies because he disrespected them so much. Putin is old and he had to make his move rather than wait for Trump to possibly win in 2024. So he went for it with Biden hoping he was as soft as Obama on action and Biden has at least managed to pull the most devastating sanctions against Russia ever seen not only from America, but from the world. It seems to be getting worse. Getting Germany to buy in was the hard part.

I say go ahead Putin. Challenge America. We have been waiting for this fight for decades. We offered Russia peace and prosperity. His lies about N.A.T.O. moving too close are ridiculous. What is America going to do? Sell them Big Macs and Iphones? He's full of it.

I say challenge us Putin. Ramp it up, you piece of garbage. We'll end you and your entire regime. All your whack jobs around you will have to decide whether to die with you and Russia die too or end you.

We Americans will figure out a way to recover. That is what we do. We survive everything, recover from everything, and our people will use the ingenuity of all those that remain to recover from whatever evil you can manage. Our people work to build our nation. The entire world will help us rebuild other than a few scum. But we won't back down to Vladimir Putin, you piece of human trash. We will not be intimidated by Russia.

[RiverDog]

I'm honestly starting to think he expected Trump to be in office and win. Trump would have dragged his feet sanctioning Russia and not been interested in motivating our allies to stand against Putin. Hell, he might have spent his time creating chaos and attacking N.A.T.O. rather than move to stop Putin. Trump's failure to take the White House was likely one of events that did not work well for Putin as I think he had the plan to invade Ukraine during Donald's 2nd Term knowing he would have had a president who could not gain consensus amongst our allies because he disrespected them so much. Putin is old and he had to make his move rather than wait for Trump to possibly win in 2024. So he went for it with Biden hoping he was as soft as Obama on action and Biden has at least managed to pull the most devastating sanctions against Russia ever seen not only from America, but from the world. It seems to be getting worse. Getting Germany to buy in was the hard part.

I say go ahead Putin. Challenge America. We have been waiting for this fight for decades. We offered Russia peace and prosperity. His lies about N.A.T.O. moving too close are ridiculous. What is America going to do? Sell them Big Macs and Iphones? He's full of it.

I say challenge us Putin. Ramp it up, you piece of garbage. We'll end you and your entire regime. All your whack jobs around you will have to decide whether to die with you and Russia die too or end you.

We Americans will figure out a way to recover. That is what we do. We survive everything, recover from everything, and our people will use the ingenuity of all those that remain to recover from whatever evil you can manage. Our people work to build our nation. The entire world will help us rebuild other than a few scum. But we won't back down to Vladimir Putin, you piece of human trash. We will not be intimidated by Russia.

I like your enthusiasm, and I get the sense that a lot of people have your kind of attitude. I read where there are a number of American veterans that are volunteering to go to Ukraine and fight side-by-side with the Ukrainians. Trump is finding himself on the wrong side of this issue as even Mike Pence has all but called out his former boss, saying that there is no room in the Republican Party for Putin apologists.

Here's another consequence that Putin didn't plan on. Finland and Sweden are actively considering joining NATO:

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent shivers of fear through many of its neighbours - from the Baltic states to Moldova.

Finland ought theoretically to be safe, since it has historically been neutral and gave Stalin's Soviet army a hard time when he invaded the country in 1939. Like other Scandinavian countries, besides Sweden, there has never been much support here to join the Nato military alliance. But when the spokeswoman for the Russian foreign ministry recently warned Finland and Sweden explicitly that any move towards Nato could have military consequences, people in both countries were deeply shocked. Since then, Russian warplanes have blatantly intruded into Swedish airspace.

If being neutral is not sufficient to guard against Russia, people here are saying that maybe joining Nato will give the two countries the protection they need. This represents a major change of mood. In Finland, particularly, relations with Russia were thought to be pretty good.

The Ukraine invasion has changed everything.

[I-5]

Theoretically could the US military lend ‘volunteers’ to join Ukraine, wear their uniforms and use equipment that the US and other allies donated? Why or why not, if citizens can do it? It’s a matter of paperwork…

[Aseahawkfan]

Oil at 124 a barrel. That is insane.

[Hawktawk]

Putin is a cornered rat . China is distancing themselves now . But they are shelling ordinary citizens evacuating . Shelling the second nuclear reactor . They have 95% of the Russian military force in Ukraine . They really suck at ground war and apparently air war as they lost 9 aircraft yesterday alone . They have lost possibly 12 k troops , several high ranking generals killed .

For Ukrainian this is awesome. For the planet a 48 hour takeover would have been safer . I don’t think the world has ever been in more danger . I’ve been avoiding the thread . I’m a spirit led man . I feel a deep burden right now . I’m praying for peace .

[I-5]

HT, not to mention Putin’s police state just arrested 4500 demonstrators. That’s the biggest number I’ve seen yet. Oligarchs and Russian corporations are publicly calling him out. Of course he will double down again, but how much longer will his generals follow orders? A few high ranking ones have been killed already.

[RiverDog]

Oil at 124 a barrel. That is insane.

And we haven't even banned imports of Russian oil as some are calling for us to do.

Putin is a cornered rat . China is distancing themselves now . But they are shelling ordinary citizens evacuating . Shelling the second nuclear reactor . They have 95% of the Russian military force in Ukraine . They really suck at ground war and apparently air war as they lost 9 aircraft yesterday alone . They have lost possibly 12 k troops , several high ranking generals killed .

For Ukrainian this is awesome. For the planet a 48 hour takeover would have been safer . I don’t think the world has ever been in more danger . I’ve been avoiding the thread . I’m a spirit led man . I feel a deep burden right now . I’m praying for peace.

One of the problems with the Russian military is that they are mostly conscripts. Most soldiers don't want to be there, especially when they're being asked to attack their own people, which is how many Russians see Ukrainians. There's rumors that one of the problems with that 40 mile long convoy is that soldiers are sabotaging equipment. That's one advantage that we'd have over them should we ever go to war with Russia is that our army is all volunteer.

HT, not to mention Putin’s police state just arrested 4500 demonstrators. That’s the biggest number I’ve seen yet. Oligarchs and Russian corporations are publicly calling him out. Of course he will double down again, but how much longer will his generals follow orders? A few high ranking ones have been killed already.

Yeah, it sounds like complete madness over there. How many people can their jails hold? Or do they start shooting people in the streets? Hawktalk is exactly right. Putin is a cornered rat.

[Hawktawk]

Russia is getting slaughtered , their troops are described as being decimated . But conscripts or no they can’t hang with the weapons of the big green machine and some of the Ukrainian engineers inexpensive drones that is slaughtering tanks .

Sergei Lavrov said today that the west supplying weapons to Ukraine and foreign mercenaries signing up is an act of war and will lead to “global collapse “ Once again a direct threat of nuclear war . It’s the only puppy dog left in the kennel . Other than that the guy is an evil little short man I’d love to spend a little time in the octagon with him . If someone has their nukes in a holster Putin is going down. I really hope they do .

[Aseahawkfan]

Russia is getting slaughtered , their troops are described as being decimated . But conscripts or no they can’t hang with the weapons of the big green machine and some of the Ukrainian engineers inexpensive drones that is slaughtering tanks .

Sergei Lavrov said today that the west supplying weapons to Ukraine and foreign mercenaries signing up is an act of war and will lead to “global collapse “ Once again a direct threat of nuclear war . It’s the only puppy dog left in the kennel . Other than that the guy is an evil little short man I’d love to spend a little time in the octagon with him . If someone has their nukes in a holster Putin is going down. I really hope they do .

Bring it Lavrov and Putin. We will destroy you and America will rise again from whatever damage you do and you will be forgotten in the ashes of your evil.

Putin knows we won't back down. He seals his fate if he challenges us. We will not cower. If Putin and whatever idiots follow him thinks America will cower in the face of his ridiculous threats, he is a bigger fool than I thought. We will never back down. We will never cower. We will come for you Putin and destroy you and the scum that support you.

You have woken us up Putin. You have woken America up. Now call us to your shore scum. We will come. Make no mistake about it. We aren't the Germans in a Russian winter. You anger us and we will not stop until you are destroyed. To strike America is to awaken an entire country that will never stop until you are done.

I hope Putin is that stupid. Ending Russian power forever would do nothing but make this entire world a better place in the long run.

[RiverDog]

You have woken us up Putin. You have woken America up.

He's woke up more than just America. He's woke up all of western Europe and has put a lot of his allies in a very uncomfortable position. This could be the defining event of the first half of the 21st century.

Like 9/11 and Pearl Harbor, an event like this is galvanizing. It causes people to put aside their petty differences and come together to fight for a common cause. Putin might well defeat Ukraine, take over the government and install a puppet, but he doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of being able to effectively govern their people, and given the sanctions, it could cause his own countrymen considerable grief and unrest.

Lindsey Graham is exactly right. Someone needs to put a bullet through Putin's head.

[Aseahawkfan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCvtzkK-2UY

Hawktawk, give this a watch. Or anyone interested in an experts take on Ukraine. Very good interview.

He says Putin is not suicidal, even worries about getting COVID. He thinks Putin is surprised at the resistance to his actions, but backed into a corner and has to finish this. He does not think nuclear weapons will happen because Putin is not doing this to end Russia or his regime. He knows nuclear war with America is the end of Russia and Putin.